IMF cuts global economic forecast as pandemic ‘hobbles’ growth

Larry Elliott

Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva says most serious obstacle to full recovery remains Covid vaccine divide between rich and poor states

IMF boss Georgieva said: ‘We face a global recovery that remains “hobbled” by the pandemic and its impact … We are unable to walk forward properly – it is like walking with stones in our shoes!’ Photograph: AP

The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned the world economy remains “hobbled” by the Covid-19 pandemic as she revealed her organisation has revised down its forecast for global growth this year.

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said the most serious obstacle to a full recovery was the vaccine divide between rich and poor nations and warned the global economy could suffer a cumulative $5.3tn loss over the next five years unless it was closed.

Speaking ahead of the IMF’s annual meeting next week, Georgieva called on rich countries to make good immediately on their pledges to share stockpiles of vaccines with developing countries.

Kristalina Georgieva at a world economic outlook meeting in January 2020. Photograph: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Getty Images

“We face a global recovery that remains hobbled by the pandemic and its impact,” she said. “We are unable to walk forward properly – it is like walking with stones in our shoes!

“The most immediate obstacle is the ‘great vaccination divide’ – too many countries with too little access to vaccines, leaving too many people unprotected from Covid.”

In July, the IMF predicted 6% growth for the global economy in 2021, but Georgieva said this would be scaled back in new forecasts to be published in next week’s World Economic Outlook.

After a summer hit by supply-chain bottlenecks and rising inflationary pressures, the IMF chief said momentum in the US and China – the world’s two biggest economies – was slowing.

Although next week’s outlook will still predict a strong bounceback from the decline in global output seen in 2020, Georgieva said “the risks and obstacles to a balanced global recovery have become even more pronounced: the stones in our shoes have become more painful”.

Low-income nations were being hit by a combination of limited access to vaccines and a lack of the policy firepower deployed by rich nations to cope with the economic impact of the virus.

Georgieva said the divergence in economic fortunes was becoming “more persistent”, adding that while output in advanced economies was projected to return to pre-pandemic trends by 2022, it would take many more years for emerging and developing countries to recover.

“We can still reach the targets put forward by the IMF, with the World Bank, World Health Organization and World Trade Organization, to vaccinate at least 40% of people in every country by the end of this year, and 70% by the first half of 2022,” the IMF managing director said.

“But we need a bigger push. We must sharply increase delivery of doses to the developing world. Richer nations must deliver on their donation pledges immediately. And, together, we must boost vaccine production and distribution capabilities; and remove trade restrictions on medical materials.

“In addition to vaccines, we must also close a $20bn gap in grant financing for testing, tracing, and therapeutics. If we don’t, large parts of the world will remain unvaccinated, and the human tragedy will continue. That would hold the recovery back. We could see global GDP losses rise to $5.3tn over the next five years.”

With the COP26 conference in Glasgow, Scotland, a month away, Georgieva said fighting climate change was critical. She called for robust carbon pricing, much higher green investment and support for the most vulnerable.

A successful green transition could raise global GDP by 2% this decade and create 30m new jobs, she added.

Ivory-billed woodpecker, more than 20 other species declared extinct by U.S. government

The Associated Press and Wilson Wong

Climate change, habitat loss and other human-related factors contributed to the extinction of the 23 species, according to wildlife officials.

The U.S. government is ringing the death knell for 23 species of birds, fish and other wildlife, including the splendid ivory-billed woodpecker.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service will officially declare the "Lord God Bird" extinct Wednesday after years of unconfirmed sightings and fruitless searches in the South.

The rare decision to remove more than 20 species from the endangered list forewarns the devastating impact climate change and habitat loss will have on global biodiversity, threatening many other animals and plants with extinction, federal officials said.

The factors behind the disappearances vary — too much development, water pollution, logging, competition from invasive species, birds killed for feathers and animals captured by private collectors. In each case, humans were the ultimate cause. Only 11 species have previously been removed because of extinction in the almost half-century since the Endangered Species Act was signed into law. Wednesday's announcement kicks off a three-month comment period before the species status changes become final.

Around the globe, 902 species have been documented as extinct. The actual number is thought to be much higher, because some are never formally identified, and many scientists warn that the Earth is in an "extinction crisis," with flora and fauna disappearing at 1,000 times the historical rate.

It's possible that one or more of the 23 species in Wednesday's announcement could reappear, several scientists said.

A leading figure in the hunt for the ivory-billed woodpecker said it was premature to call off the effort after millions of dollars have been spent on searches and habitat preservation efforts.

"Little is gained and much is lost" with an extinction declaration, said Cornell University bird biologist John Fitzpatrick, lead author of a 2005 study that claimed that the woodpecker had been rediscovered in eastern Arkansas.

"A bird this iconic and this representative of the major old-growth forests of the Southeast, keeping it on the list of endangered species keeps attention on it, keeps states thinking about managing habitat on the off chance it still exists," he said.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature, a Switzerland-based group that tracks extinctions globally, isn't putting the ivory-billed woodpecker into its extinction column because it's possible the birds still exist in Cuba, said Craig Hilton-Taylor, head of the organization's "red list unit."

Hilton-Taylor said there can be unintended but damaging consequences if extinction is declared prematurely. "Suddenly the [conservation] money is no longer there, and then suddenly you do drive it to extinction because you stop investing in it," he said.

Federal officials said the extinctions declaration was driven by a desire to clear a backlog of recommended status changes for species that hadn't been acted upon for years. They said it would free up resources for on-the-ground conservation efforts for species that still have a chance for recovery.

War crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Libya since 2016, says UN

Peter Beaumont

Fact-finding mission says migrants and detainees particularly exposed to violations since civil war

A detention centre in Zawiya, west of the Libyan capital, Tripoli. Photograph: Mahmud Turkia/AFP via Getty Images

War crimes and crimes against humanity including murder, torture, enslavement, extrajudicial killings and rape have been committed in Libya since 2016, a United Nations investigation has found.

The independent fact-finding mission on Libya, commissioned by the UN Human Rights Council, said migrants and detainees were particularly exposed to violations that have occurred since the country was plunged into a state of instability and civil war.

Amid concerns about foreign mercenaries who have been operating in Libya, the experts said there were “reasonable grounds to believe” that personnel from a Russian private military company known as the Wagner Group “may have committed the crime of murder” in connection with evidence that they had fired gunshots directly at people not taking direct part in the hostilities.

The experts also cited reports indicating that the Libyan coastguard, which has been trained and equipped by the European Union as part of efforts to staunch the flow of migrants across the Mediterranean, had mistreated migrants and handed some over to detention centres where torture and sexual violence were “prevalent”.

The mission suggested that rights abuses that targeted minorities, women and other civilians were prevalent in the period they examined.

Oil-rich Libya has been torn by conflict since the 2011 toppling and killing of the dictator Muammar Gaddafi in a Nato-backed uprising, with rival administrations vying for power.

Since 2014 Libya has been split by warring administrations supported by Turkey in the west and Russian mercenaries in the east. As part of a UN-backed programme after the signing of a ceasefire last October, Libya is due to hold presidential and parliamentary elections at the end of 2021.

“The violence that has plagued Libya since 2011, and which has continued almost unabated since 2016, has enabled the commission of serious violations, abuses and crimes, including crimes against humanity and war crimes, against the most vulnerable,” the three members who led the mission said in their report.

“All parties to the conflicts, including third states, foreign fighters and mercenaries, have violated international humanitarian law, in particular the principles of proportionality and distinction, and some have also committed war crimes,” said Mohamed Auajjar, who chaired the mission.

He added: “Civilians paid a heavy price during the 2019-2020 hostilities in Tripoli, as well as during other armed confrontations in the country since 2016. Airstrikes have killed dozens of families.

“The destruction of health-related facilities has impacted access to health care and anti-personnel mines left by mercenaries in residential areas have killed and maimed civilians.”

Describing crimes committed against migrants, Chaloka Beyani, another mission member, said: “Migrants, asylum-seekers and refugees are subjected to a litany of abuses at sea, in detention centres and at the hands of traffickers.

“Our investigations indicate that violations against migrants are committed on a widespread scale by state and non-state actors, with a high level of organisation and with the encouragement of the state – all of which is suggestive of crimes against humanity.”

The unrest in the north African country has had a dramatic impact on Libyans’ economic, social and cultural rights, as borne out by attacks on hospitals and schools.

The mission said it had identified individuals and groups – both Libyan and foreign – who may bear responsibility for the violations, abuses and crimes. However, it said the list would remain confidential until it could be shared with appropriate accountability mechanisms.

Though the Libyan judicial authorities are investigating most of the cases documented in the report, the process “faces significant challenges”, the experts said.

In June 2020, the Human Rights Council – the UN’s top rights body – adopted a resolution calling for a fact-finding mission to be sent to Libya. The move had Tripoli’s support.

The experts, appointed in August last year, were charged with investigating alleged violations and abuses of international human rights law and international humanitarian law committed in Libya since 2016.

Auajjar was joined by fellow human rights experts Beyani and Tracy Robinson.

They gathered and reviewed hundreds of documents, interviewed more than 150 individuals and conducted investigations in Libya, Tunisia and Italy.

Their report documents the recruitment and direct participation of children in hostilities, plus the enforced disappearance and extrajudicial killings of prominent women.

The experts said anti-personnel mines left by mercenaries in residential areas had killed and maimed civilians.

Migrants seeking passage across the Mediterranean Sea to Europe were subjected to a litany of abuses in detention centres and at the hands of traffickers, said Beyani.

Violations are committed “on a widespread scale” by state and non-state actors, “with a high level of organisation and with the encouragement of the state – all of which is suggestive of crimes against humanity”, the Zambian expert said.

Agence France-Presse contributed to this report

7 climate action highlights to remember before COP26

1.     Billions planned for clean energy

IMF/Lisa Marie David I Workers clean solar panels at a solar farm in Manila, Philippines.

More than $400 billion in new finance and investment was committed by governments and the private sector during the UN High-level Dialogue on Energy, the first leader-level meeting on energy under the auspices of the UN General Assembly in 40 years.

More than 35 countries, ranging from island states to major emerging and industrialized economies, made significant new energy commitments in the form of Energy Compacts.

For example, the No New Coal Compact includes Sri Lanka, Chile, Denmark, France, Germany, the UK, and Montenegro.

The countries involved in the coalition have committed to immediately stop issuing new permits for coal-fired power generation projects and cease new construction of coal-fired power generation, as of the end of 2021.

Several new partnership initiatives were announced during the event, aiming to provide and improve access to reliable electricity, to over a billion people.

You can find more about the important commitments here

2.     United States and China boosted climate action

The world’s two largest economies committed to more ambitious climate action during the high-level week of the General Assembly.

Unsplash/Kouji Tsuru I Air pollution from coal-fired power plants is linked to global warming and other damaging environmental and public health consequences.

United States’ President Jose Biden announced that his country would significantly increase its international climate finance to approximately $11.4 billion a year.

Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping of China said that he would end all financing of coal-fired power plants abroad, and redirect support to green and low carbon energy generation.

While the announcements were most welcome, The UN Secretary-General flagged that there is still “a long way to go” to make UN climate conference (COP26) in Glasgow a success that ensures “a turning point in our collective efforts to address the climate crisis”.

3.     Africa Climate Week spurred regional action

UN Photo/Albert González Farran I Extreme weather like widespread drought is causing economic losses amongst farmers in Africa.

People across Africa met virtually for several days to spotlight climate action, explore possibilities, and showcase ambitious solutions.

More than 1,600 participants actively joined in the virtual gathering, with the host Government of Uganda bringing together governments at all levels across the region, along with private sector leaders, academic experts, and other key stakeholders.

Janet Rogan, COP26 Regional Ambassador for Africa and the Middle East, said that the meeting enabled many stakeholders to build new partnerships and strengthen existing ones.

“Only by working together can we truly help to deliver on the ambition of the Paris Agreement while being conscious of the unique opportunities and challenges this presents in the region”, she said.

UN agencies were involved:

• The World Bank examined economy-wide approaches for a sustainable, green recovery

• The UN Development Programme (UNDP) explored how both climate risk and climate solutions are reshaping different sectors

• The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) reimagined the future and looked at behaviors, technologies, and financing

• The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) published its first ever stock take of Africa’s forests and landscapes revealing that up to 65 per cent of productive land is degraded, while desertification affects 45 per cent of Africa’s land area.

Africa has contributed little to climate change, generating only a small fraction of global emissions. However, it may be the most vulnerable region in the world already suffering of droughts, floods, and destructive locust invasions, among other impacts.

4.     COP hosts, the United Kingdom, asked countries to ‘secure the money’

UN Photo/Cia Pak I Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland addresses the general debate of the UN General Assembly’s 76th session.

Right at the beginning of the General Assembly, the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson convened an emergency meeting to press for more action on climate finance and other measures ahead of UN COP26.

World leaders addressed the gaps that remain on the actions needed from national governments, especially the G20 industrialized powers, on mitigation, finance, and adaptation.

The UK Prime Minister warned that “history will judge” the world’s richest nations if they fail to deliver on their pledge to commit $100 billion in annual climate aid ahead of COP26. He placed the chances of securing the money before November at “six out of 10”.

Mr. Johnson also assured his country “will lead by example, keeping the environment on the global agenda and serving as a launchpad for a global green industrial revolution.” But warned: “No one country can turn the tide, it would be akin to bailing out a liner with a single bucket.”

5.     World leaders committed to reform Global Food Systems

© FAO/Sumy Sadurni I Food waste, pictured here at Lira market in Uganda, is a significant challenge for farmers and vendors alike.

Food systems cause as much as a third of greenhouse gas emissions, up to 80 per cent of biodiversity loss and use up to 70 per cent of freshwater reserves.

However, sustainable food production systems should be recognized as an essential solution to these existing challenges.

On 23 Sept, the first ever UN Food Systems Summit convened world leaders to spur national and regional action to transform the way we produce, consume and dispose of our food.

Following from the latest IPCC report, which raised a “code red” for human-driven global heating, the US administration, one of the world’s major agricultural producers, pledged $10 billion over five years to address climate change and help feed those most vulnerable without exhausting natural resources.

The Summit, called by the UN Secretary-General in 2019 to accelerate global progress by leveraging the interconnected importance of food systems, featured other commitments from more than 85 Heads of State around the world.

Many countries announced national initiatives to ensure their food systems met not only the nutritional needs of their populations but also goals around climate change, biodiversity, and decent livelihoods for all.  Business and civil society organizations also made important promises.  

Check out the 231 commitments made.

6.     No more ‘blah, blah, blah’

ICAN/Lucero Oyarzun I As part of the Fridays for Future school strikes, youth protest for climate action in Geneva in 2019. (file)

Almost 400 activists aged 15 to 29 from 186 countries met in Milan, Italy, a few days ago, to rev up the call for climate action. With weeks to go before COP26, they highlighted youth leadership and pushed for a far more climate conscious society.

Greta Thunberg, along with Ugandan environmentalist Vanessa Nakate was among the speakers at the Youth4Climate event, run by Italy and the World Bank Group.

“Build back better. Blah, blah, blah. Green economy. Blah blah blah. Net-zero by 2050. Blah, blah, blah. This is all we hear from our so-called leaders. Words that sound great but so far have not led to action. Our hopes and ambitions drown in their empty promises”, Thunberg said.

 “No more empty conferences, it’s time to show us the money”, added Nakate, 24, referring to the $100 billion in annual climate aid promised by the richest economists to help developing countries vulnerable to the impact of climate change.

"What do we want? We want climate justice now", highlighted Thunberg, known for inspiring a series of youth climate strikes around the world since 2018.

The three-day meeting finalized with a joint document to be presented at negotiation meetings during the preparation COP26 event, the Pre-COP, and then during the pivotal conference.

UN chief António Guterres thanked young people for contributing ideas and solutions in advance of the UN Climate Conference.

“Young people have been in the forefront of putting forward positive solutions, advocating for climate justice and holding leaders to account. We need young people everywhere to keep raising your voices,” he said in a video message.

7.     Next commitments to watch: the Pre-COP

Each UN Climate Conference (COP) is preceded by a preparatory meeting held about a month before, called Pre-COP. The meeting is the final formal, multilateral opportunity for ministers to shape the negotiations in detail ahead of the meeting in Glasgow in November.

UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe I UN Secretary-General António Guterres participates in a virtual briefing to update Member States on preparations for COP26 in Glasgow, UK.

The event, this year in Milan, brings together climate and energy ministers from a selected group of countries to discuss and exchange views on some key political aspects of the negotiations and delve into some of the key topics that will be addressed at COP26.

The meeting is taking place just weeks after a report by UN Climate Change found that nations must urgently redouble their climate efforts if they are to prevent global temperature increases beyond the Paris Agreement’s goal of 2C – ideally 1.5C – by the end of the century.

The issues under discussion in Milan include:

• Reducing emissions to ensure that the 1.5C goal remains within reach

• Provision of finance and support to developing countries to enable them to act on climate change

• Improving approaches to averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage from climate extremes

• Establishing a global goal on adaptation to decrease vulnerability

• Advancing the technicalities needed for countries to report on their climate actions and support needed or received

• Advancing the detailed rules for the market and non-market mechanisms, through which countries can cooperate to meet their emission reduction targets

The Conference started on Sept 30th and closed on Oct 2nd.

Keep raising your voices, UN chief tells young climate leaders

With the climate crisis already devastating lives and incomes, young people will be critical to driving global action forward, UN Secretary-General António Guterres told participants attending the Pre-COP Youth Event in Milan, Italy, on Thursday.

ICAN/Lucero Oyarzun I As part of the Fridays for Future school strikes, youth protest for climate action in Geneva in 2019. (file)

Hundreds of delegates from across the world are taking part in the meeting, which is a precursor to the UN COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow, Scotland, in November.

‘Code red for humanity’

“Young people have been in the forefront of putting forward positive solutions, advocating for climate justice and holding leaders to account. We need young people everywhere to keep raising your voices,” he said in a video message.

The Secretary-General described the climate emergency as a “code red for humanity”, with the poorest and most vulnerable already hardest hit.

“The window of opportunity to prevent the worst impacts of the climate crisis is closing quickly. We know what needs to be done and we have the tools to do it,” he said.

Deliver on promises

Mr. Guterres urged the young climate leaders to keep speaking up “for a breakthrough in building resilience and ensuring that at least 50 per cent of climate support is for adaptation to protect lives and livelihoods.”

He outlined why their voices are needed now, including to get developed countries to finally deliver on their decade-old promise to provide $100 billion dollars annually in climate finance to developing nations.   

Meanwhile, Governments, businesses and investors still have yet to reduce their emissions in line with the 1.5-degree goal of the Paris Agreement, another area for youth advocacy.   

The target means countries must commit to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the middle of the century, and clear plans to achieve them.

‘A powerful example’

The Secretary-General commended the Italian Government - which holds the co-presidency of COP26 with the United Kingdom - “for providing this global stage for young people to engage directly with policy-makers.”

He thanked young people for contributing ideas and solutions in advance of the UN climate conference.

“Your solidarity and demands for action set a powerful example,” he said. “We need national leaders to follow your example and ensure the ambition and results we need at COP26 and beyond.”

Cutting methane should be a key Cop26 aim, research suggests

Fiona Harvey

Oil and gas producers could reduce emissions at low cost or even at a profit by staunching leaks, says thinktank

Methane is about 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in warming the planet. Photograph: CATF/Reuters

Sharp cuts in methane from leaking gas drilling platforms and production sites could play a major role in the greenhouse gas emissions reductions necessary to fulfil the Paris climate agreement, and should be a key aim for the Cop26 UN climate talks, new research suggests.

Cutting global emissions of methane by 40% by 2030 is achievable, with most cuts possible at low cost or even at a profit for companies such as oil and gas producers. It would make up for much of the shortfall in emissions reductions plans from national governments, according to the Energy Transitions Commission thinktank.

Ahead of Cop26, senior UN and UK officials have privately conceded that the top aim of the conference – for all countries to formulate plans called nationally determined contributions (NDCs), that would add up to a global 45% cut in emissions by 2030 – will not be met.

However, the UK as hosts of the summit, to be held in Glasgow in November, still hope for enough progress to show that the world can still limit global heating to 1.5C, the aspiration of the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, about 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in warming the planet. It is the biggest component of natural gas, used for fuel, and leaks can be caused by poorly constructed conventional drilling operations, shale gas wells, gas pipelines and other fossil fuel infrastructure. Methane is also flared from some oil production sites.

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Staunching such leaks or capturing the methane instead can be done at a low cost, and can even be profitable for gas producers, especially now as the international gas price soars. Just a few key producers – Russia, the US, China and Canada – could make a massive impact.

Lord Adair Turner, chairman of the ETC, said: “It is clear that if you add up NDCs they are not big enough to keep us to 1.5C. There is a huge gap left. But there are some actions that you can imagine groups of countries taking that could close that gap.”

The US and the EU recently announced a partnership aiming at reducing methane emissions by 30% by 2030, but Turner said more could be achieved and this would help to compensate for the relatively unambitious NDCs that many countries have.

“We have not focused enough on methane, but it can be a really important lever, and cutting it has an impact [on global heating] sooner rather than later, which matters if there are feedback loops in the climate system,” he added.

Turner also pointed to other key actions that could be taken at Cop26 which he said would substantially help global efforts to tackle the climate crisis. For instance, helping developing countries to phase out their existing coal-fired power plants was one key way of reducing reliance on coal.

In India, for instance, new coal-fired power stations are now more expensive than renewable alternatives, yet the marginal cost of electricity generation from existing coal-fired power stations is still cheaper than wind or solar. That means companies have an incentive to keep old coal-fired power plants going, but if they could be paid to phase out the oldest, that would accelerate the country’s move away from coal.

“Developing countries need financial support to do this,” Turner said.

Steel should be another focus, according to Turner. Steel companies could move to “green” steel production, using hydrogen, far more easily than a few years ago, he said. A global agreement among steel producers at Cop26 could achieve that, and similar global agreements were possible among cement producers, the shipping industry and other high-carbon sectors.

Many countries, Turner added, were submitting NDCs that were too cautious or did not reflect how fast businesses were already cutting emissions and moving to green energy and clean technology. “NDCs have not caught up with what is possible and what is actually happening,” he said.

Food waste: a global problem that undermines healthy diets

UN NEWS

© FAO/Sumy Sadurni I Food waste, pictured here at Lira market in Uganda, is a significant challenge for farmers and vendors alike.

The call comes as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said that 17 per cent of all food available to consumers in 2019, ended up being thrown away.

When we don't waste food we aren't just saving it from the bin.

Reducing your #foodwaste has so many more benefits 👇#FLWDay pic.twitter.com/JncHzBzSI3

— FAO (@FAO) September 28, 2021

An additional 132 million people face food and nutrition insecurity today because of the COVID-19 pandemic, FAO said, ahead of the International Day of Awareness of Food Loss and Waste, on Wednesday 29 September.

Global problem

The problem of food waste is a global one and not limited to wealthy nations alone, said Nancy Aburto, Deputy Director of FAO’s Food and Nutrition Division Economic and Social Development Stream, speaking at a press conference in Geneva.

“Food insecurity, hunger and malnutrition are impacting every country in the world and no country is unaffected; 811 million people suffer hunger, two billion suffer micronutrient deficiencies – that’s vitamin and mineral deficiencies - and millions of children suffer stunting and wasting, deadly forms of under-nutrition.”

The FAO official warned that the high cost of “healthy” diets, meant that they were now “out of reach” of every region in the world, including Europe.

She also said that more countries needed to embrace innovation to reduce waste, such as new packaging that can prolong the shelf-life of many foods, while smartphone apps can bring consumers closer to producers, reducing the time between harvest and plate.

Repercussions of food waste

Reducing food loss and waste would improve agri-food systems and help towards achieving food security, food safety and food quality, all while delivering on nutritional outcomes.

According to FAO, it would also contribute “significantly to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, as well as pressure on land and water resources”.

With less than nine years left to reach Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 12 on ensuring sustainable consumption, and target 12.3 to halve per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer levels, there is an urgent need to accelerate action, up to the 2030 deadline.

Takeaways for action:

• Reducing food loss and waste, strengthens the sustainability of food systems and improves planetary health.

• Increasing the efficiency of food systems and reducing food loss and waste, requires investment in innovation, technologies and infrastructure.

• Composting food waste is better than sending it to a landfill, but preventing waste in the first place, lessens its impact on the environment.

• Maximizing the positive impacts of reducing food loss and waste, requires good governance and human capital development.

However, this requires national and local authorities along with businesses and individuals to prioritize actions in this direction and contribute to restoring and improving agri-food systems.

Fruit and veg

And with just three months to go, during this International Year of Fruits and Vegetables, FAO has reminded that produce provides human nutrition and food security while working to achieve the SDGs.

“In the current health crisis we are facing around the world, promoting healthy diets to strengthen our immune systems is especially appropriate”, FAO chief QU Dongyu said, kicking off the year last December.

He also noted that food loss and waste in the fruits and vegetables sector remain a problem with considerable consequences, pointing out that “innovative technologies and approaches are of critical importance”, as they can help maintain safety and quality, “increasing the shelf life of fresh produce items and preserving their high nutritional value”

Smokers up to 80% more likely to be admitted to hospital with Covid, study says

Linda Geddes

Data also finds smokers more likely to die from disease compared with those who have never smoked

The findings contradict research published at the start of the Covid pandemic that suggested smoking could protect against the virus. Photograph: Jeff Chiu/AP

Smokers are 60%-80% more likely to be admitted to hospital with Covid-19 and also more likely to die from the disease, data suggests.

A study, which pooled observational and genetic data on smoking and Covid-19 to strengthen the evidence base, contradicts research published at the start of the pandemic suggesting that smoking might help to protect against the virus. This was later retracted after it was discovered that some of the paper’s authors had financial links to the tobacco industry.

Other studies on whether smoking is associated with a greater likelihood of more severe Covid-19 infection have produced inconsistent results.

One problem is that most of these studies have been observational, making it difficult to establish whether smoking is the cause of any increased risk, or whether something else is to blame, such as smokers being more likely to come from a lower socioeconomic background.

Dr Ashley Clift at the University of Oxford and colleagues drew on GP health records, Covid-19 test results, hospital admissions data and death certificates to identify associations between smoking and Covid-19 severity from January to August 2020 in 421,469 participants of the UK Biobank study – all of whom had also previously had their genetic makeup analysed.

Compared with those who had never smoked, current smokers were 80% more likely to be admitted to hospital and significantly more likely to die from Covid-19 if they became infected.

To investigate, Clift and his team used a technique called Mendelian randomisation, which uses genetic variants as proxies for a particular risk factor – in this case genetic variants that contribute to whether someone is more likely to smoke or to smoke heavily – to obtain further evidence for a causal relationship.

Even though the contribution of each of these variants is small and it is not necessarily understood why they increase a person’s chances of being a smoker, they avoid many of the limitations of observational studies and thereby help to give a clearer picture of whether there is a biological link between smoking and Covid-19.

“The study adds to our confidence that tobacco smoking does not protect against Covid-19, as their Mendelian randomisation analyses are less susceptible to confounding than previous observational studies,” wrote Dr Anthony Laverty and Prof Christopher Millett of Imperial College London in a linked editorial published in the journal Thorax.

The Mendelian randomisation analysis also supported the link between smoking and worse Covid-19 outcomes, finding that a genetic predisposition to smoking was associated with a 45% higher risk of infection and a 60% higher risk of hospital admission for Covid-19.

A genetic predisposition to heavy smoking was associated with a more than doubling in the risk of infection; a fivefold increase in the risk of hospital admission; and a tenfold increase in the risk of death from the virus, the team found.

Clift said: “Our results strongly suggest that smoking is related to your risk of getting severe Covid, and just as smoking affects your risk of heart disease, different cancers, and all those other conditions we know smoking is linked to, it appears that it’s the same for Covid. So now might be as good a time as any to quit cigarettes and quit smoking.”

Cop26 climate talks will not fulfil aims of Paris agreement, key players warn

Fiona Harvey
Climate crisis

Major figures privately admit summit will fail to result in pledges that could limit global heating to 1.5C

Protesters take part in a climate protest in Glasgow as part of the Global Youth Strike For Climate in the lead up to COP26 climate summit in the city. Photograph: Ewan Bootman/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock

Vital United Nations climate talks, billed as one of the last chances to stave off climate breakdown, will not produce the breakthrough needed to fulfil the aspiration of the Paris agreement, key players in the talks have conceded.

The UN, the UK hosts and other major figures involved in the talks have privately admitted that the original aim of the Cop26 summit will be missed, as the pledges on greenhouse gas emissions cuts from major economies will fall short of the halving of global emissions this decade needed to limit global heating to 1.5C.

Senior observers of the two-week summit due to take place in Glasgow this November with 30,000 attenders, said campaigners and some countries would be disappointed that the hoped-for outcome will fall short.

However, the UN, UK and US insisted that the broader goal of the conference – that of “keeping 1.5C alive” – was still in sight, and that world leaders meeting in Glasgow could still set a pathway for the future that would avoid the worst ravages of climate chaos.

That pathway, in the form of a “Glasgow pact”, would allow for future updates to emissions pledges in the next few years that could be sufficient for the world to stay within scientific advice on carbon levels.

A senior UN official said: “We are not going to get to a 45% reduction, but there must be some level of contributions on the table to show the downward trend of emissions.”

A UK official said: “Cop26 will not deliver all that we want [on emissions].” But the UK, charged as host with delivering a successful outcome, is hoping that progress will be made on other issues, including phasing out coal, providing climate finance to poor countries, and improving the protection of forests.

A US official told the Guardian countries must still aim as high as possible on emissions cuts: “We are going to try to achieve [the emissions cuts necessary]. No one in the administration wants to admit defeat before we have made the maximum effort. You should set an ambitious agenda and may have to, in the end, take baby steps but you should plan for long strides. We are taking long strides.”

Lord Nicholas Stern, the climate economist, said falling short on emissions plans should not be equated with failure. “I agree with [the UN] and most observers that we will not close that gap [between emissions pledges and scientific advice] completely,” he said. “But we should hope for good progress in closing that gap and we should hope for mechanisms and ways forward on how we close that gap further between now and 2025. That’s the way we should think about what is a good, or better, or worse result – a language of success or failure doesn’t seem to me to be very helpful.”

At the Paris climate summit in December 2015, 196 nations agreed to hold global temperature rises to “well below 2C” with an aspiration to limit rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. But the pledges on emissions – known as nationally determined contributions, or NDCs – they brought to the French capital were not enough to fulfil either goal, and would have led to catastrophic heating of at least 3C.

For that reason, the French hosts wrote into the agreement a “ratchet mechanism” that would require countries to return to the negotiating table every five years with fresh targets to meet the temperature goals. Cop26, which was postponed by a year because of Covid, is the fifth Cop – conference of the parties – since Paris.

Some people would be disappointed by the admission that the high hopes for an outcome that would fulfil the Paris aspiration would not be met, said Mary Robinson, chair of the Elders Group, former UN climate envoy and former president of Ireland. “The NDCs will be disappointing, given the urgency and given the climate impacts. It is disappointing that leaders have not been able to step up enough. But the momentum will be there, and that’s very important. I am determined to be hopeful.”

She said the original conception of the Paris agreement, of returning every five years, should be revised so that countries would be asked to return every year with their plans.

The UN takes a similar view. “The Paris agreement built this five-year cycle of ambition, but there is nothing preventing a country from reviewing and updating its NDC next year,” said the senior UN official.

“Cop26 is a very important milestone but it should not be seen as the end of the game, where we give up on 1.5C,” he added. “[It] will signal that 1.5C remains in reach [through] a combination of NDCs, negotiated outcomes and signals in the real economy.”

While the UK, the US and the EU have submitted NDCs requiring much stiffer cuts than those proposed at Paris, the world’s biggest emitter – China – has yet to submit an NDC, and has only indicated that it will cause emissions to peak by 2030, which experts said was not enough to hold the world to 1.5C.

Alok Sharma, the UK cabinet minister who is Cop26 president-designate, said: “Cop26 has always been about delivering urgent action to ensure we keep the path to a 1.5C world alive. Those nations which have submitted new and ambitious climate plans are already bending the curve of emissions downwards by 2030. But we continue to push for increased ambition from the G20 to urgently close the emissions gap. The clock is ticking, and Cop26 must be the turning point where we change the course of history for the better.”

China has still not said whether president Xi Jinping will attend Cop26, causing consternation among climate diplomats who fear China will make no major move at the summit. Relations with China and the US and the UK have been strained by the announcement of the Aukus defence pact with Australia, and by trade differences.

Other countries have also failed to come up with improved NDCs, including Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Russia and Saudi Arabia. India is also the subject of intense diplomacy, as the world’s fourth-biggest emitter after the EU.

Campaigners said the focus should be on the biggest emitters. Mitzi Jonelle Tan, an activist for Fridays for Future in the Philippines, who joined the youth climate strike last Friday, said: “We have seen how big polluters, like the US and China, have promised and pledged less than what is needed from them in the past, yet have fallen short on those every time. Unlike the so-called leaders who like to cheer themselves on for subpar speeches [at the UN], the youth aren’t impressed.”

Decades of development efforts undermined by pandemic – FAO report

UN NEWS
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

COVID-19 has set back progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), undermining decades of development efforts, according to a new report by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

"It's an alarming picture, in which progress on many SDG targets has been reversed, with a significant impact on all aspects of sustainable development and making the achievement of the 2030 Agenda even more challenging," said FAO Chief Statistician, Pietro Gennari. 

The analysis, Tracking progress on food and agriculture SDG-related indicators, focuses on eight of the SDGs, which were adopted at a UN Summit in New York in 2015.  

Main findings 

The world has been thrown further off-track when it comes to meeting many #SDGs, including SDG2 Zero Hunger, due to #COVID19.

We must act now & transform our agri-#FoodSystems to achieve a healthy & sustainable future for all.@FAO's new report 👉https://t.co/QNRB0g4hag pic.twitter.com/bWglCYtnPF

— FAO (@FAO) September 22, 2021

According to the report, the COVID-19 pandemic might have pushed an additional 83 to 132 million people into chronic hunger in 2020, making the target of ending hunger even more distant. 

© IFAD/P. Vega I A farmer harvests potatoes in Manchaybamba, Peru.

Around 14 percent of all food is lost along the supply chain, before it even reaches the consumer, which FAO considers “an unacceptably high proportion”. Progress has also faltered towards maintaining plant and animal genetic diversity for food and agriculture. 

Agricultural systems bear the brunt of economic losses due to disasters, small-scale food producers remain disadvantaged, and food price volatility has also increased, due to the constraints placed by the pandemic and lockdowns.  

The report also focuses on gender, finding that women producers in developing countries earn less than men even when more productive; gender inequalities in land rights are pervasive; and discriminatory laws and customs remain obstacles to women's tenure rights.  

Lastly, water stress remains alarmingly high in many regions, threatening progress towards sustainable development. 

Progress and solutions 

FAO also points to several areas in which progress is being made.  

The UN agency highlights measures against illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, sustainable forest management, elimination of agricultural export subsidies, investment in agricultural productivity in developing countries, and duty-free access for developing and Least Developed Countries (LDCs).  

The new report coincides with this week's UN Food Systems Summit, which aims to raise global awareness and spur actions to transform food systems, eradicate hunger, reduce diet-related diseases and heal the planet.  

FAO is asking to scale up investment in agriculture, more access to new technologies, credit services and information resources for farmers and support small-scale food producers. 

The agency also supports the conservation of plant and animal genetic resources, measures to counter food price volatility, and prevent potentially hazardous events from becoming full-blown disasters. 

It also calls for more action to use water efficiently, better interventions to reduce food losses, more protection of ecosystems, progress on the legal and practical aspects of women's land rights and the sustainability of global fisheries. 

Lastly, the report makes an urgent call for more and better data. 

"As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold, and the world moves further off track in meeting the 2030 SDG deadline, timely and high-quality data are more essential than ever," Mr. Gennari said. 

Hungry and desperate: Climate change fuels a migration crisis in Guatemala

Denise Chow and Carlos P. Beltran

Starving and in debt, farmers whose land has been destroyed by climate-related weather events are becoming migrants.

LA VEGA, Guatemala — Darwin Mendez has tried and failed to reach the United States three times. Twenty-three years old and $30,000 in debt, he said leaving Guatemala is his only option. Years of punishing drought scorched the field he farms with his father, mother, uncle and siblings, shrinking the maize and drying out what precious few kernels grow on the tiny cobs. 

Then came the rains.

Nearly half of all children in Guatemala under the age of 5 suffer from chronic malnutrition. Carlos Perez Beltran / NBC News

Unpredictable storms and back-to-back hurricanes last year brought heavy downpours to the hills of western Guatemala, triggering mudslides that buried Mendez’s crops and left pests and disease in their wake. When the land dried out, it stayed dry, and the region is once again gripped by prolonged heat waves and persistent drought.

For Mendez, it means another year of poor harvest.

“We don’t have much land — no one does around here — so when we lose crops, we lose everything,” he said.

As Guatemala lurches between intense droughts and devastating floods — two extremes made worse by climate change — some farmers like Mendez are being forced to take drastic action, selling whatever they can or borrowing huge sums of money and leaving home. Most will move within the country, to cities in search of work, while others will join the tens of thousands of Guatemalans who each year attempt a much more treacherous journey north.

More than one-fifth of the population of Guatemala faces what one United Nations agency considers dangerously high levels of food insecurity. Nearly half of all children in the country under the age of 5 suffer from chronic malnutrition, and in some of the most vulnerable rural communities, that number is significantly higher, according to the U.N. World Food Programme. 

“Whatever we grow in the field is not enough to feed ourselves,” Mendez said. “I want to go to the U.S., so I can feed my family.” 

Jose Vasquez shows the undeveloped corn grown near his home.Carlos Perez Beltran / NBC News

More than 250 miles away from where Mendez lives in Huehuetenango, Jose Vasquez is similarly finding it difficult to survive off what he can grow. Vasquez, 42, is a small farmer in Chiquimula, in southern Guatemala. On a recent walk through his sloping field, he snapped corn off of a couple of stalks, pulling aside the papery husks to reveal withered cobs notched with only a few brown kernels.

“The problem with the maize is that rain never came,” he said, adding that he feels desperate at times. “I’m afraid because there might not be enough food for my family.”

Experts have said climate change could displace hundreds of millions of people around the world as rising sea levels, hotter temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events transform where is livable on the planet. In places already grappling with high levels of poverty, corruption and conflict, the effects of global warming may reach a fragile tipping point for some of the world’s most vulnerable communities. 

It’s a situation that is already playing out in Guatemala. Without deep cuts in global emissions, it’s likely that global warming will create climate migrants on just about every continent. The consequences will be staggering.

“It’s hard to point to a region of the world that is not going to be heavily impacted by climate change and from migration,” said Nicholas Depsky, a doctoral student at the University of California, Berkeley, and a researcher at the Climate Impact Lab, a consortium of climate scientists from Berkeley, the University of Chicago, the Rhodium Group and Rutgers University. “When you see the writing on the wall, it’s hard to feel like there’s any way that you can overstate the gravity of the situation.”

From southeast Asia to Central America, the movement of people displaced by climate change could fuel political conflicts between nations, or deepen existing tensions, Depsky added. 

“From a U.S. perspective, migration is already such a flashpoint,” he said. “It’s such a divisive political issue, and Central America is already a big region of focus because of how much it plays into our political discourse here.”

Years of drought interspersed with unpredictable storms have resulted in poor harvests and food shortages.Carlos Perez Beltran / NBC News

Migration has been a focus for the Climate Impact Lab, and Depsky’s research has centered, in particular, on droughts in Central America. Guatemala sits along the so-called Dry Corridor, a stretch of Central America that extends from southern Mexico to Panama where high levels of poverty and a reliance on grain crops in rural communities make people in the region especially vulnerable to climate change.

Depsky co-authored a study published in December in the journal Environmental Research Letters that modeled future drought forecasts in Central America. The researchers found that the severity, frequency and duration of droughts throughout the Dry Corridor are projected to worsen through the end of the century.

While the models predicted a decrease in average annual precipitation, Depsky said there will likely also be an increase in extreme weather events, including severe storms and heavy downpours, due to climate change. It’s not yet clear whether global warming is making hurricanes more frequent overall, but studies have shown that warmer sea surface temperatures are increasing the chances that storms will become major hurricanes when they do form.

Darwin Mendez, 23, wants to migrate to the U.S. so that he can provide for his family. Carlos Perez Beltran / NBC News

Part of the problem is that there is no clear definition, legal or otherwise, on who is a climate migrant. Climate change is rarely the main reason why someone decides to leave their home, but it’s almost certainly a compounding factor in many cases.

“It’s really important to look at how climate change interacts with existing vulnerabilities and how climate change exacerbates those vulnerabilities, how it threatens livelihoods, how it increases poverty, how it interacts or tips over into conflict,” said Amali Tower, the founder and executive director of Climate Refugees, a nonprofit organization that aids and raises awareness about climate migration.

In Guatemala, years of severe drought interspersed with tropical storms, Hurricanes Eta and Iota last year and other heavy precipitation events have not only destroyed crops but also battered the land, said Paris Rivera, a climatologist at the Mariano Gálvez University of Guatemala.

“The plants no longer grow and the soil that remains is infertile,” Rivera said, “causing various problems, especially to the people who use the soil for their crops and for their personal consumption, thus generating incredible food insecurity.”

While climate stress will probably drive waves of migration in Guatemala and elsewhere around the world, not everyone will have the means or ability to cross borders.

“It’s not as simple as a drought hits the Dry Corridor and all these farmers pick up their things and move north,” Depsky said. “It’s a lot more nuanced, and the people most impacted because they have the fewest resources to adapt and cope are also the ones that can’t afford to move until it’s a life-or-death situation.”

As such, most climate migration will likely be among people who have been displaced and forced to move within their home country. A report released earlier this month by the World Bank projected that 216 million people across Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Eastern Europe, North Africa, Central Asia, East Asia and the Pacific could move within their countries by 2050.

“Nobody actually wants to be forced to leave their own home,” Tower said. “By and large, how climate change impacts mobility is to create situations of internal displacement.”

But with so much on the line in an increasingly untenable situation, some like Mendez feel they don’t have much of a choice but to leave Guatemala and push north.

“I’m worried about the future,” he said. “All I can do is pray to God I’ll be able to migrate to the U.S.”

Denise Chow reported from New York City, and Carlos P. Beltran from La Vega, Guatemala.

How green is your food? Eco-labels can change the way we eat, study shows

Tiffany Cassidy

Researchers found the most effective way to get people to not buy an item was to use a dark red globe symbol with the word ‘worse’ printed on it. Photograph: Tiffany Cassidy/The Guardian

It’s lunchtime at a workplace cafeteria in Birmingham, and employees returning to work after months away during the coronavirus pandemic are noticing something has changed. Next to the sandwiches and hot and cold dishes is a small globe symbol, coloured green, orange or red with a letter in the centre from A to E. “Meet our new eco-labels”, a sign reads.

Researchers at Oxford University have analysed the ingredients in every food item on the menu and given the dishes an environmental impact score, vegetable soup (an A) to the lemon, spring onion, cheese and tuna bagel (an E).

“It probably does help you to start making some choices,” said Natasha King, while eating a plant-based hot meal. She is an employee in the Birmingham headquarters of the UK division of the food services business Compass Group. The company has teamed up with the university for a trial at more than a dozen of its cafeterias across the UK to see if a label can change the way people eat.

Getting people to switch to environmentally sustainable food options through labels is not new: hundreds of food labels exist, from ones that certify organic, to those that promise sustainable fishing. But a new type is gaining steam, one that summarises multiple environmental indicators from greenhouse gas emissions to water use into a single letter indicating the product’s impact.

Some businesses in France began using one this year and the NGO Foundation Earth announced its own trial to begin in UK and EU supermarkets this autumn.

The first challenge for the scientists designing the trial is the image the diners see on the signs. How much information do you include in a label? How do you strike a balance between effective and practical?

During the pandemic, researchers ran studies on an online supermarket where people were given fake money to complete their fake shopping list. The trial gave a sense of what labels were more likely to sway people to buy eco-friendly. They found the most effective way to get people to not buy an item was to use a dark red globe symbol with the word “worse” printed on it. But while effective, it had real world limitations.

“You’re not going to be able to get anyone to use that unless you threaten them with legislation, because they don’t want to say ‘don’t buy this’,” said Brian Cook, the senior researcher leading the project.

Sandwiches and other eco-labelled offerings. The researchers say the biggest environmental impact will be to wean people off meat. Photograph: Tiffany Cassidy/The Guardian

And what works for this cafeteria setting, with lots of room for information on walls and beside the food, may not work on food packaging in a supermarket that’s already full of information, much of it government mandated. “The real estate there is highly competitive,” Cook said.

The next challenge in supermarkets is the scale. The sandwiches, soups, and hot dishes laid out in this cafeteria only scratch the surface of the Compass food options. It was the Oxford researcher Michael Clark’s job to go through the hundreds of meals made up of roughly 10 ingredients each, determining the environmental impact. Doing the same for the tens of thousands of products and myriad ingredients in a supermarket would be a Herculean task.

Then the scientists had to create a formula to determine environmental impact – a process full of tough decisions using imperfect data. “There’s neverending ways you can do it and how you weight the different indicators … how you want to nudge people,” Cook said.

This research team decided on four indicators for this trial’s formula: greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity loss, water pollution, and water use (calculated differently based on water scarcity in each region). They weighted each indicator equally in their equation for overall impact.

Other research has looked at land use instead of biodiversity, or using a total of 16 indicators. Whatever the choice, it can change the eco-score that comes out.

“Almonds, you know: great for your health and low in a lot of environment indicators, but then you get to the water, and they are off the charts,” Cook said.

But in most cases, the researchers say the biggest environmental impact will be to get people off meat. “Given that the premise is to get people to shift behaviour, that most correct and scientifically robust approach may actually not be the best approach,” Clark said.

The traffic-light system of eco scores rates the environmental cost of food. Photograph: No Credit

He has considered that a national rollout of labels might need to be based on indicators already prioritised by businesses or mandated by governments, to make the integration as easy as possible for businesses.

In a corner table at the Compass cafeteria, five employees eat together, four of them have chosen a vegetarian meal. They say many of them would usually have opted for meat.

At another table sits Jenny Haines, eating a vegetable stew (rated a C). She does not often think about the environmental impact of the food she eats, but she says it looked appetising, healthy, and was placed right at the front of the hot meals counter.

This was part of an intentional strategy by Compass to find ways to get customers to buy food with a better environmental impact score. Plant-based dishes are placed at the top of menus and at the front of cafe counters, with meat dishes at the back. They do not use the words “vegan” or “plant-based” so people do not feel dictated to, and they gave their dishes a rebrand. “Vegan sweet potato mac n cheese” became “Ultimate New York ‘cheezy’ sweet potato mac”, for example.

At the centre of everything is taste. “Ticking the box isn’t good enough,” said Ryan Holmes, the culinary director of Compass. “We need to put plant-based dishes that can stand next to the meat dishes.”

Some politicians are also interested in this issue. MPs in the UK and Canada have introduced private member’s bills this year aiming to mandate environmental impact labels on food.

Cook gives presentations to business groups and some policymakers in the UK, and says people have a lot of interest in labels. He thinks we will see these labels in some form on products sooner or later.

“It’s definitely part of the toolkit of what you need,” he said. “And in terms of the things that are risky to all stakeholders, this is relatively low risk.”

Religious rehab centres fill gap as Nigeria grapples with soaring drug use

Kemi Falodun in Ibadan

Packaging cannabis for sale in Lagos, Nigeria. The country has been grappling with a growing drug problem for years. Photograph: Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images

Kola* was in secondary school in Nigeria when he started smoking cigarettes. He soon graduated to cannabis, heroin and eventually to crack cocaine. Access to drugs was easy and he felt the pressure of friends to participate.

In 2002, when he was 39, he was introduced to a private drug rehabilitation centre in Ibadan, in the south-west of the country, where he spent 90 days weaning himself off his addiction.

“Cold turkey … It was like dying,” Kola says. But he eventually got clean, married and now works as a community facilitator at the centre. He was one of the fortunate ones.

Nigeria has been grappling with a growing drug problem for several years, with cases surging since 2016. In its World Drug Report, published in June, the UN recorded a rise in the country’s rate of abuse from 5.6% in 2016 to 14.4% in 2018, with cannabis the most commonly used drug.

Ease of access to drugs, poverty, job insecurity and unemployment have fuelled the increase. Now there are concerns that lockdown restrictions during the Covid-19 pandemic have exacerbated the problem.

According to Nigeria’s National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA), the south-west of the country has the highest rates of abuse and trafficking, with more than 22% of 15- to 65-year-olds using drugs in the past year.

In Ibadan, the capital of Oyo state, hundreds have passed through the same rehab centre as Kola, the Goodworker Ministry International. As well as accepting inpatients, the Christian-based centre, which says its drug treatment work was “divinely commissioned by the Lord” in 2002, organises outreach programmes to encourage people to bring their relatives to the centre.

Ahmed* was in primary school when he started experimenting with drugs. He began smoking cigarettes, then marijuana, and went on to use opioids and crack cocaine. He explains that there are countless “bunks” (where users go to inject) and “joints” (for smokers) across Ibadan. “In Bere [a central district] alone, the ‘joints’ there are over 40 … and it’s increasing every day.”

After going through the rehab programme, Ahmed also started working at the centre. He says the work helped his recovery because he had little spare time to spend with drug users. “That was what led me out of cocaine and heroin.”

The centre received a rise in calls during lockdown. “Requests for treatment increased by more than 300% but we could not help [everyone],” says its founder, Tunji Agboola, a Christian pastor.

During the lockdown, the centre’s inpatients were discharged to their families. Many relatives were not equipped to care for them and some patients relapsed. “We suspect that it led to the increase in the usage of prescription drugs and substances such as Rohypnol, tramadol and many more,” says Agboola. “A drug user will not allow the lockdown to make him have withdrawal problems.”

Poverty and food inflation have also increased in the past year – 100.9 million Nigerians are predicted to be living in poverty by 2022 – and so has crime. “The fact that they were hungrier at that time made them do stuff,” Agboola says. “If anything disrupts their day-to-day activities, they will come at people. That was why crime increased.

“Most of these guys that live on the streets are the engine room for drug demand,” he says. “The children of the rich get their drugs because the children of the poor exist.”

Faith Yvonne Abiodun, a mental health counsellor and manager at the Compassionate Recovery Centre in Ibadan, another rehabilitation facility set up by a cleric, says that during the pandemic staff there had received more calls than they had ever before. “Normally, people go about their activities, they have places and people to visit to make them feel better,” she says. With the restrictions, habits were forced to change. “People take solace in these substances.”

Founded in 2013, the centre only operated an outpatient model until last year. Such was the demand for its services after lockdown restrictions eased, however, that it started admitting people to a residential facility, where they spend up to six months. “We moved from a seven-client capacity to 18 clients,” Abiodun says of the surge in demand during the pandemic. “Even people who have been feeling well started using more [drugs].”

The local authorities are attempting to address the drug problem. Two years ago, Oyo state began enforcing free basic school enrolment as a preventive measure because drug use is so rampant among teenagers who have dropped out of school. It is too early to say if it is having an impact. The state government is also collaborating with community leaders on awareness programmes and targeted intervention.

“The main goal is prevention,” says Olufemi Josiah, special assistant on community relations to Oyo’s governor. “When children escape certain menaces, the possibility of getting involved in drugs at adulthood is very slim.”

Josiah says that, to achieve impact at scale, agencies, communities and all levels of the government have to work together. He would like to see the NDLEA be more proactive and collaborate more with national and state government. “A lot of attention is placed on the elected government,” Josiah adds. “The institutions that should really treat some of these things, are they really working?”

Dr Victor Makanjuola, a consultant psychiatrist at University College hospital in Ibadan, also sees a clear need for more rehabilitation centres. There are only eight government-owned psychiatric hospitals in Nigeria.

“We need to have a full rehab centre,” says Makanjuola, who works with addicts and people with drug-related disorders such as psychosis and anxiety. He says UCH is planning a separate addiction centre for long-term patients.

Currently, the hospital works with private rehabilitation centres, such as Goodworker, referring patients there for long-term care.

The majority of rehabilitation centres in Nigeria are run by religious groups, and are widely accepted by the medical community. They meet a need the government is failing to address. However, although most operate under international standards of drug-use prevention, patients in these centres are usually expected to participate in some form of religious worship.

Goodworker has been admitting inpatients since lockdown was eased last year. After three months in rehab, recovering users are released to their families, but that can give rise to new challenges. The team at the centre monitor people after they leave. They know their families and friends, and follow up on them if they start socialising again with drug users. “The final stage is lifelong,” Agboola says. “That’s where we handle every form of relapse.”

* Names have been changed

The Goodworker rehabilitation centre in Ibadan, Nigeria. Patients are expected to take part in religious worship. Photograph: Kemi Falodun

Ease of access to drugs, poverty, job insecurity and unemployment have fuelled the increase. Now there are concerns that lockdown restrictions during the Covid-19 pandemic have exacerbated the problem.

According to Nigeria’s National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA), the south-west of the country has the highest rates of abuse and trafficking, with more than 22% of 15- to 65-year-olds using drugs in the past year.

In Ibadan, the capital of Oyo state, hundreds have passed through the same rehab centre as Kola, the Goodworker Ministry International. As well as accepting inpatients, the Christian-based centre, which says its drug treatment work was “divinely commissioned by the Lord” in 2002, organises outreach programmes to encourage people to bring their relatives to the centre.

Ahmed* was in primary school when he started experimenting with drugs. He began smoking cigarettes, then marijuana, and went on to use opioids and crack cocaine. He explains that there are countless “bunks” (where users go to inject) and “joints” (for smokers) across Ibadan. “In Bere [a central district] alone, the ‘joints’ there are over 40 … and it’s increasing every day.”

After going through the rehab programme, Ahmed also started working at the centre. He says the work helped his recovery because he had little spare time to spend with drug users. “That was what led me out of cocaine and heroin.”

The centre received a rise in calls during lockdown. “Requests for treatment increased by more than 300% but we could not help [everyone],” says its founder, Tunji Agboola, a Christian pastor.

During the lockdown, the centre’s inpatients were discharged to their families. Many relatives were not equipped to care for them and some patients relapsed. “We suspect that it led to the increase in the usage of prescription drugs and substances such as Rohypnol, tramadol and many more,” says Agboola. “A drug user will not allow the lockdown to make him have withdrawal problems.”

Poverty and food inflation have also increased in the past year – 100.9 million Nigerians are predicted to be living in poverty by 2022 – and so has crime. “The fact that they were hungrier at that time made them do stuff,” Agboola says. “If anything disrupts their day-to-day activities, they will come at people. That was why crime increased.

“Most of these guys that live on the streets are the engine room for drug demand,” he says. “The children of the rich get their drugs because the children of the poor exist.”

Faith Yvonne Abiodun, a mental health counsellor and manager at the Compassionate Recovery Centre in Ibadan, another rehabilitation facility set up by a cleric, says that during the pandemic staff there had received more calls than they had ever before. “Normally, people go about their activities, they have places and people to visit to make them feel better,” she says. With the restrictions, habits were forced to change. “People take solace in these substances.”

Founded in 2013, the centre only operated an outpatient model until last year. Such was the demand for its services after lockdown restrictions eased, however, that it started admitting people to a residential facility, where they spend up to six months. “We moved from a seven-client capacity to 18 clients,” Abiodun says of the surge in demand during the pandemic. “Even people who have been feeling well started using more [drugs].”

The local authorities are attempting to address the drug problem. Two years ago, Oyo state began enforcing free basic school enrolment as a preventive measure because drug use is so rampant among teenagers who have dropped out of school. It is too early to say if it is having an impact. The state government is also collaborating with community leaders on awareness programmes and targeted intervention.

“The main goal is prevention,” says Olufemi Josiah, special assistant on community relations to Oyo’s governor. “When children escape certain menaces, the possibility of getting involved in drugs at adulthood is very slim.”

Addicts turned to prescription drugs and over-the-counter products during lockdown, such as cough syrups containing codeine. Photograph: Reuters/Alamy

Josiah says that, to achieve impact at scale, agencies, communities and all levels of the government have to work together. He would like to see the NDLEA be more proactive and collaborate more with national and state government. “A lot of attention is placed on the elected government,” Josiah adds. “The institutions that should really treat some of these things, are they really working?”

Dr Victor Makanjuola, a consultant psychiatrist at University College hospital in Ibadan, also sees a clear need for more rehabilitation centres. There are only eight government-owned psychiatric hospitals in Nigeria.

“We need to have a full rehab centre,” says Makanjuola, who works with addicts and people with drug-related disorders such as psychosis and anxiety. He says UCH is planning a separate addiction centre for long-term patients.

Currently, the hospital works with private rehabilitation centres, such as Goodworker, referring patients there for long-term care.

The majority of rehabilitation centres in Nigeria are run by religious groups, and are widely accepted by the medical community. They meet a need the government is failing to address. However, although most operate under international standards of drug-use prevention, patients in these centres are usually expected to participate in some form of religious worship.

Goodworker has been admitting inpatients since lockdown was eased last year. After three months in rehab, recovering users are released to their families, but that can give rise to new challenges. The team at the centre monitor people after they leave. They know their families and friends, and follow up on them if they start socialising again with drug users. “The final stage is lifelong,” Agboola says. “That’s where we handle every form of relapse.”

* Names have been changed

International Day for Peace: 5 World Leaders Who Fought Oppression With Non-violence

It has taken humans hundreds of years and the contributions of several remarkable leaders to understand the significance and impact of non-violence. From Mahatma Gandhi to Nelson Mandela, non-violence formed the bedrock of the policies of several influential leaders to fight oppression. The International Day for Peace is observed on September 21 every year to strengthen our ideals for peace and ensure a period of non-violence and ceasefire. This year, on this special day, we tell you about five world leaders who showed humanity the light of peace in the darkness of violence.

MAHATMA GANDHI

Mahatma, which means a greater soul, was not Mohandas Gandhi’s original name but a title he was given because of the consciousness he demonstrated by the extraordinary practice of non-violence in his personal and political life. Gandhi’s non-violent civil disobedience and Satyagraha movements are seen as the milestones in India’s struggle for freedom from the British, and have set examples for non-violent resistance that has inspired many movements across the world.

MARTIN LUTHER KING JR

Inspired by his Christian beliefs and the nonviolent activism of Mahatma Gandhi, King played a key role in the American civil rights movement and advocated peaceful solutions to many biggest problems in society. His peaceful demonstrations made racism in America visible worldwide. In 1964, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

LEYMAH GBOWEE

Leader of the women’s nonviolent peace movement, Gbowee helped end the 14-year-long civil war in Liberia. Gbowee and her movement brought a period of peace in the West African country and fought for women’s rights using nonviolent campaigns. She was also awarded the 2011 Nobel Peace Prize with her collaborator  Ellen Johnson Sirleaf.

NELSON MANDELA

Fighting apartheid in South Africa, Nelson Mandela spent 27 years of his life in prison. When he was released, his efforts led to a multiracial election in South Africa and he was elected as President. Emphasising forgiveness in personal life, Mandela saw non-violence as the most pragmatic form of resistance.

MAIREAD MAGUIRE

A proponent of the belief that “violence is a disease that humans develop but are not born with,” Maguire is a peace activist who founded Community for Peace People, an organisation that helped resolve the conflict in Northern Ireland. Recognised as a leader of peace, Maguire was awarded the 1976 Nobel Peace Prize along with her collaborator Elizabeth Williams.

Climate pledges tough to secure before COP26 summit, PM warns

Alex Therrien

GETTY IMAGE

There is a "six out of 10" chance of getting other countries to sign up to financial and environmental targets ahead of November's key COP26 climate change conference, the UK PM has said.

Boris Johnson is in the US for a UN meeting where he will urge leaders to take "concrete action" on the issue.

But he said it would be "tough" to persuade allies to meet their promise to give $100bn a year to developing nations to cut carbon emissions.

The UK is hosting COP26 in Glasgow.

Mr Johnson also defended new International Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan over her past social media posts that rejected the science of climate change, acknowledging that he himself had not always supported action on global warming but "the facts change and people change their minds".

With some 100 world leaders expected in New York at the UN General Assembly this week, Mr Johnson will seek to galvanise action during a series of high-level meetings.

Speaking during his flight, Mr Johnson told reporters: "I think getting it all done this week is going to be a stretch. But I think getting it all done by COP, six out of 10.

"It's going to be tough but people need to understand that this is crucial for the world."

Downing Street has said developed countries have "collectively failed" on their annual $100bn (£73bn) target, with OECD figures last week showing that only $79.6bn in climate finance was mobilised in 2019.

World’s largest tree wrapped in fire-resistant blanket as California blaze creeps closer

Associated Press

Efforts underway to protect General Sherman and other giant trees from wildfires threatening Sequoia national park

Firefighters have wrapped the base of the world’s largest tree in a fire-resistant blanket as they tried to save a famous grove of gigantic old-growth sequoias from wildfires burning in California’s rugged Sierra Nevada.

The colossal General Sherman tree in Sequoia national park’s giant forest, some of the other sequoias, the Giant Forest Museum and other buildings were wrapped as protection against the possibility of intense flames, fire spokesperson Rebecca Paterson said.

The aluminium wrapping can withstand intensive heat for short periods. Federal officials say they have been using the material for several years throughout the US west to protect sensitive structures from flames. Homes near Lake Tahoe that were wrapped in protective material survived while others nearby were destroyed.

The Colony fire, one of two burning in Sequoia national park, was expected to reach the Giant Forest, a grove of 2,000 sequoias, at some point on Thursday. It comes after a wildfire killed thousands of sequoias, some as tall as high-rises and thousands of years old, in the region last year.

The General Sherman tree is the largest in the world by volume, at 1,487 cubic meters, according to the National Park Service. It towers 84 meters high and has a circumference of 31 meters at ground level.

A 50-year history of using prescribed burns – fires set on purpose to remove other types of trees and vegetation that would otherwise feed wildfires – in the parks’ sequoia groves was expected to help the giant trees survive by lessening the impact if flames reach them.

A “robust fire history of prescribed fire in that area is reason for optimism”, Paterson said. “Hopefully, the Giant Forest will emerge from this unscathed.”

Giant sequoias are adapted to fire, which can help them thrive by releasing seeds from their cones and creating clearings that allow young sequoias to grow. But the extraordinary intensity of fires – fuelled by climate change – can overwhelm the trees. That happened last year when the Castle fire killed what studies estimate were 7,500 to 10,600 large sequoias, according to the National Park Service.

A historic drought and heat waves tied to climate change have made wildfires harder to fight in the American west. Scientists say climate change has made the region much warmer and drier in the past 30 years and will continue to make weather more extreme and wildfires more frequent and destructive.

The fires forced the evacuation of the park this week, and parts of the town of Three Rivers outside the main entrance remained evacuated Thursday. A bulldozer was cutting a line between the fire and the community.

The wildfires are among the latest in a long summer of blazes that have scorched nearly 9,195 sq km in California, destroying hundreds of homes.

Firefighters have wrapped the base of the world’s largest tree in a fire-resistant blanket as they tried to save a famous grove of gigantic old-growth sequoias from wildfires burning in California’s rugged Sierra Nevada.

The colossal General Sherman tree in Sequoia national park’s giant forest, some of the other sequoias, the Giant Forest Museum and other buildings were wrapped as protection against the possibility of intense flames, fire spokesperson Rebecca Paterson said.

Firefighters wrap the historic Sequoia national park entrance sign with fire-proof blankets in California. Photograph: NATIONAL PARK SERVICE/AFP/Getty Images

The aluminium wrapping can withstand intensive heat for short periods. Federal officials say they have been using the material for several years throughout the US west to protect sensitive structures from flames. Homes near Lake Tahoe that were wrapped in protective material survived while others nearby were destroyed.

The Colony fire, one of two burning in Sequoia national park, was expected to reach the Giant Forest, a grove of 2,000 sequoias, at some point on Thursday. It comes after a wildfire killed thousands of sequoias, some as tall as high-rises and thousands of years old, in the region last year.

The General Sherman tree is the largest in the world by volume, at 1,487 cubic meters, according to the National Park Service. It towers 84 meters high and has a circumference of 31 meters at ground level.

A 50-year history of using prescribed burns – fires set on purpose to remove other types of trees and vegetation that would otherwise feed wildfires – in the parks’ sequoia groves was expected to help the giant trees survive by lessening the impact if flames reach them.

A “robust fire history of prescribed fire in that area is reason for optimism”, Paterson said. “Hopefully, the Giant Forest will emerge from this unscathed.”

Giant sequoias are adapted to fire, which can help them thrive by releasing seeds from their cones and creating clearings that allow young sequoias to grow. But the extraordinary intensity of fires – fuelled by climate change – can overwhelm the trees. That happened last year when the Castle fire killed what studies estimate were 7,500 to 10,600 large sequoias, according to the National Park Service.

A historic drought and heat waves tied to climate change have made wildfires harder to fight in the American west. Scientists say climate change has made the region much warmer and drier in the past 30 years and will continue to make weather more extreme and wildfires more frequent and destructive.

The fires forced the evacuation of the park this week, and parts of the town of Three Rivers outside the main entrance remained evacuated Thursday. A bulldozer was cutting a line between the fire and the community.

The wildfires are among the latest in a long summer of blazes that have scorched nearly 9,195 sq km in California, destroying hundreds of homes.

Efforts underway to protect General Sherman and other giant trees from wildfires threatening Sequoia national park

Firefighters have wrapped the base of the world’s largest tree in a fire-resistant blanket as they tried to save a famous grove of gigantic old-growth sequoias from wildfires burning in California’s rugged Sierra Nevada.

The colossal General Sherman tree in Sequoia national park’s giant forest, some of the other sequoias, the Giant Forest Museum and other buildings were wrapped as protection against the possibility of intense flames, fire spokesperson Rebecca Paterson said.

Firefighters wrap the historic Sequoia national park entrance sign with fire-proof blankets in California. Photograph: NATIONAL PARK SERVICE/AFP/Getty Images

The aluminium wrapping can withstand intensive heat for short periods. Federal officials say they have been using the material for several years throughout the US west to protect sensitive structures from flames. Homes near Lake Tahoe that were wrapped in protective material survived while others nearby were destroyed.

The Colony fire, one of two burning in Sequoia national park, was expected to reach the Giant Forest, a grove of 2,000 sequoias, at some point on Thursday. It comes after a wildfire killed thousands of sequoias, some as tall as high-rises and thousands of years old, in the region last year.

The General Sherman tree is the largest in the world by volume, at 1,487 cubic meters, according to the National Park Service. It towers 84 meters high and has a circumference of 31 meters at ground level.

A 50-year history of using prescribed burns – fires set on purpose to remove other types of trees and vegetation that would otherwise feed wildfires – in the parks’ sequoia groves was expected to help the giant trees survive by lessening the impact if flames reach them.

A “robust fire history of prescribed fire in that area is reason for optimism”, Paterson said. “Hopefully, the Giant Forest will emerge from this unscathed.”

Giant sequoias are adapted to fire, which can help them thrive by releasing seeds from their cones and creating clearings that allow young sequoias to grow. But the extraordinary intensity of fires – fuelled by climate change – can overwhelm the trees. That happened last year when the Castle fire killed what studies estimate were 7,500 to 10,600 large sequoias, according to the National Park Service.

A historic drought and heat waves tied to climate change have made wildfires harder to fight in the American west. Scientists say climate change has made the region much warmer and drier in the past 30 years and will continue to make weather more extreme and wildfires more frequent and destructive.

The fires forced the evacuation of the park this week, and parts of the town of Three Rivers outside the main entrance remained evacuated Thursday. A bulldozer was cutting a line between the fire and the community.

The wildfires are among the latest in a long summer of blazes that have scorched nearly 9,195 sq km in California, destroying hundreds of homes.

Efforts underway to protect General Sherman and other giant trees from wildfires threatening Sequoia national park

Firefighters have wrapped the base of the world’s largest tree in a fire-resistant blanket as they tried to save a famous grove of gigantic old-growth sequoias from wildfires burning in California’s rugged Sierra Nevada.

The colossal General Sherman tree in Sequoia national park’s giant forest, some of the other sequoias, the Giant Forest Museum and other buildings were wrapped as protection against the possibility of intense flames, fire spokesperson Rebecca Paterson said.

Firefighters wrap the historic Sequoia national park entrance sign with fire-proof blankets in California. Photograph: NATIONAL PARK SERVICE/AFP/Getty Images

The aluminium wrapping can withstand intensive heat for short periods. Federal officials say they have been using the material for several years throughout the US west to protect sensitive structures from flames. Homes near Lake Tahoe that were wrapped in protective material survived while others nearby were destroyed.

The Colony fire, one of two burning in Sequoia national park, was expected to reach the Giant Forest, a grove of 2,000 sequoias, at some point on Thursday. It comes after a wildfire killed thousands of sequoias, some as tall as high-rises and thousands of years old, in the region last year.

The General Sherman tree is the largest in the world by volume, at 1,487 cubic meters, according to the National Park Service. It towers 84 meters high and has a circumference of 31 meters at ground level.

A 50-year history of using prescribed burns – fires set on purpose to remove other types of trees and vegetation that would otherwise feed wildfires – in the parks’ sequoia groves was expected to help the giant trees survive by lessening the impact if flames reach them.

A “robust fire history of prescribed fire in that area is reason for optimism”, Paterson said. “Hopefully, the Giant Forest will emerge from this unscathed.”

Giant sequoias are adapted to fire, which can help them thrive by releasing seeds from their cones and creating clearings that allow young sequoias to grow. But the extraordinary intensity of fires – fuelled by climate change – can overwhelm the trees. That happened last year when the Castle fire killed what studies estimate were 7,500 to 10,600 large sequoias, according to the National Park Service.

A historic drought and heat waves tied to climate change have made wildfires harder to fight in the American west. Scientists say climate change has made the region much warmer and drier in the past 30 years and will continue to make weather more extreme and wildfires more frequent and destructive.

The fires forced the evacuation of the park this week, and parts of the town of Three Rivers outside the main entrance remained evacuated Thursday. A bulldozer was cutting a line between the fire and the community.

The wildfires are among the latest in a long summer of blazes that have scorched nearly 9,195 sq km in California, destroying hundreds of homes.

Efforts underway to protect General Sherman and other giant trees from wildfires threatening Sequoia national park

Firefighters have wrapped the base of the world’s largest tree in a fire-resistant blanket as they tried to save a famous grove of gigantic old-growth sequoias from wildfires burning in California’s rugged Sierra Nevada.

The colossal General Sherman tree in Sequoia national park’s giant forest, some of the other sequoias, the Giant Forest Museum and other buildings were wrapped as protection against the possibility of intense flames, fire spokesperson Rebecca Paterson said.

Firefighters wrap the historic Sequoia national park entrance sign with fire-proof blankets in California. Photograph: NATIONAL PARK SERVICE/AFP/Getty Images

The aluminium wrapping can withstand intensive heat for short periods. Federal officials say they have been using the material for several years throughout the US west to protect sensitive structures from flames. Homes near Lake Tahoe that were wrapped in protective material survived while others nearby were destroyed.

The Colony fire, one of two burning in Sequoia national park, was expected to reach the Giant Forest, a grove of 2,000 sequoias, at some point on Thursday. It comes after a wildfire killed thousands of sequoias, some as tall as high-rises and thousands of years old, in the region last year.

The General Sherman tree is the largest in the world by volume, at 1,487 cubic meters, according to the National Park Service. It towers 84 meters high and has a circumference of 31 meters at ground level.

A 50-year history of using prescribed burns – fires set on purpose to remove other types of trees and vegetation that would otherwise feed wildfires – in the parks’ sequoia groves was expected to help the giant trees survive by lessening the impact if flames reach them.

A “robust fire history of prescribed fire in that area is reason for optimism”, Paterson said. “Hopefully, the Giant Forest will emerge from this unscathed.”

Giant sequoias are adapted to fire, which can help them thrive by releasing seeds from their cones and creating clearings that allow young sequoias to grow. But the extraordinary intensity of fires – fuelled by climate change – can overwhelm the trees. That happened last year when the Castle fire killed what studies estimate were 7,500 to 10,600 large sequoias, according to the National Park Service.

A historic drought and heat waves tied to climate change have made wildfires harder to fight in the American west. Scientists say climate change has made the region much warmer and drier in the past 30 years and will continue to make weather more extreme and wildfires more frequent and destructive.

The fires forced the evacuation of the park this week, and parts of the town of Three Rivers outside the main entrance remained evacuated Thursday. A bulldozer was cutting a line between the fire and the community.

The wildfires are among the latest in a long summer of blazes that have scorched nearly 9,195 sq km in California, destroying hundreds of homes.

Firefighters wrap the historic Sequoia national park entrance sign with fire-proof blankets in California. Photograph: NATIONAL PARK SERVICE/AFP/Getty Images

A 50-year history of using prescribed burns – fires set on purpose to remove other types of trees and vegetation that would otherwise feed wildfires – in the parks’ sequoia groves was expected to help the giant trees survive by lessening the impact if flames reach them.

A “robust fire history of prescribed fire in that area is reason for optimism”, Paterson said. “Hopefully, the Giant Forest will emerge from this unscathed.”

Giant sequoias are adapted to fire, which can help them thrive by releasing seeds from their cones and creating clearings that allow young sequoias to grow. But the extraordinary intensity of fires – fuelled by climate change – can overwhelm the trees. That happened last year when the Castle fire killed what studies estimate were 7,500 to 10,600 large sequoias, according to the National Park Service.

A historic drought and heat waves tied to climate change have made wildfires harder to fight in the American west. Scientists say climate change has made the region much warmer and drier in the past 30 years and will continue to make weather more extreme and wildfires more frequent and destructive.

The fires forced the evacuation of the park this week, and parts of the town of Three Rivers outside the main entrance remained evacuated Thursday. A bulldozer was cutting a line between the fire and the community.

The wildfires are among the latest in a long summer of blazes that have scorched nearly 9,195 sq km in California, destroying hundreds of homes.

Russians head to the polls amid anger over Economy and Covid

Andrew Roth

Ruling United Russia party polling at near-historic lows but likely to find a way to keep control of State Duma

A store worker rolls a cart with groceries past election posters depicting candidates for the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament. Photograph: Dmitri Lovetsky/AP

Russians will head to the polls beginning Friday for parliamentary elections that could serve as a platform for popular anger over the economy, a crackdown on dissent and the government response to the coronavirus pandemic. But the ruling party United Russia is likely to find a way to maintain a stranglehold on its control of the State Duma.

While stifling political opposition and independent media, the Kremlin is trying to solve a simple maths problem: how can it prop up the numbers of United Russia, which is polling at near-historic lows, without provoking the kind of protests that broke out over widespread incidents of crude voter fraud in 2011.

Before the vote, which will be held over three days, there has been increasing support for the Communist party, while other opposition behind Alexei Navalny, the jailed Kremlin critic, has sought to consolidate through a “smart voting” effort that mainly identified Communist candidates as the strongest challengers.

“There are a lot of people who are unhappy,” said Anastasia Bryukhanova, an independent candidate from one of the country’s most opposition-minded districts in north-west Moscow. “The biggest problem remains a lack of belief in our own power, a lack of belief in the elections themselves. The biggest battle is to get people out to the polling station and at least try to resist.”

Russia’s Communist party has seen its polling rise above 19% in recent weeks, in large part because of stagnant wages and rising prices. It has also sought to broaden its appeal, bringing in younger candidates from the party’s youth wing or running outsiders in first past the post (FPTP) votes in local districts.

But the party has often aligned itself with United Russia and is still led by the same leader, Gennady Zyuganov, who ran against Boris Yeltsin in 1996. While it did oppose Vladimir Putin’s proposal to renew his presidential terms during last year’s constitutional referendum, it has often been derided as a “pocket opposition”.

“Many people say that, in their view, the leadership of the Communist party often compromises … they don’t trust them,” said Mikhail Lobanov, a candidate for the party in a district in western Moscow, in a television interview this week. “I think that the Communist party and its leadership should change: it should become more radical, more decisive. Not give in to pressure. And then it can return the support of people who have turned away from it.”

United Russia, meanwhile, has seen its support bottom out, with fewer than 30% of Russians telling state pollsters that they would vote for the ruling party. To maintain its current constitutional majority (it has 336 of 450 MPs in the current Duma), the party will rely on winning FPTP districts, an elections format that has been expanded in recent years to 225 of the Duma’s 450 open seats.

In Moscow, United Russia has put up candidates from popular grassroots initiatives, like the search-and-rescue nonprofit Liza Alert, to attract votes. Putin also signed off on cash handouts to families and members of the military ahead of the vote, and local governments are offering prizes such as new apartments, cars and gift certificates to those who sign up to vote online.

Top opponents of the government have been jailed, disqualified or run out of the country, including Dmitry Gudkov, a former member of the Duma. It has also sought to divide the opposition vote, in some cases running doppelgangers who can siphon off precious ballots in tight races. Two opponents of Boris Vishnevsky, a veteran St Petersburg lawmaker critical of the Kremlin, even changed their names and appearances to fool voters on the ballot. “I have never seen anything like it,” he said in an interview.

Past votes, particularly in 2011, have been marred by ballot-stuffing and other crude efforts to deliver not just a United Russia victory, but a landslide for the ruling party. The biggest change to this year’s vote is that it will take place over three days and also online, maximising turnout and making it extremely difficult to confirm that the number of ballots matches the number of voters. Golos, an elections NGO that has been named a foreign agent by the Russian government, has said just 50% of the country’s precincts will have independent monitors.

When all else fails, United Russia will hope for opposition infighting to divide the protest vote and deliver victory to a friendly candidate.

Bryukhanova, a rare independent on the ballot in Russia, was recently backed by Navalny’s smart voting scheme, snubbing another liberal candidate from the established, if somewhat ineffective, Yabloko party.

“I consider the decision in our district a big mistake,” wrote Marina Litvinovich, her opponent. “But it would be wrong to decide for [voters]. If you wanted to support ‘smart voting’, then vote for the candidate it suggests. If you want to support me, then vote as your heart tells you.”

Those who do make it through will find themselves outmatched in the Duma. But Bryukhanova said it was worth it. “First of all, it is about symbolism. To show that it is possible. To show that a politician like me with my views … can win in these elections, even with all their violations.”

'Tipping point’ for climate action: Time’s running out to avoid catastrophic heating

According to the landmark United in Science 2021, there “is no sign of growing back greener”, as carbon dioxide emissions are rapidly accelerating, after a temporary blip in 2020 due to COVID, and nowhere close to the targets set by the Paris Agreement.

 “We have reached a tipping point on the need for climate action. The disruption to our climate and our planet is already worse than we thought, and it is moving faster than predicted”, UN Secretary General António Guterres underscored in a video message. “This report shows just how far off course we are”, he added.

A world in danger

Unsplash/Mikhail Serdyukov I Climate change increases the risk of hot, dry weather that is likely to fuel wildfires.

According to scientists, the rising global temperatures are already fueling devastating extreme weather events around the world, with escalating impacts on economies and societies. For example, billions of working hours have been lost due to excessive heat.

“We now have five times the number of recorded weather disasters than we had in 1970 and they are seven times more costly. Even the most developed countries have become vulnerable”, said the UN chief.

Mr. Guterres cited how Hurricane Ida recently cut power to over a million people in New Orleans, and New York City was paralysed by record-breaking rain that killed at least 50 people in the region.

“These events would have been impossible without human-caused climate change. Costly fires, floods and extreme weather events are increasing everywhere. These changes are just the beginning of worse to come”, he warned.

A bleak future

The report echoes some of the data and warnings from experts in the last year: the average global temperature for the past five years was among the highest on record, and there is an increasing likelihood that temperatures will temporarily breach the threshold of 1.5° Celsius above the pre-industrial era, in the next five years.

The picture painted by United in Science is bleak: even with ambitious action to slow greenhouse gas emissions, sea levels will continue to rise and threaten low-lying islands and coastal populations throughout the world.

“We really are out of time. We must act now to prevent further irreversible damage. COP26 this November must mark that turning point. By then we need all countries to commit to achieve net zero emissions by the middle of this century and to present clear, credible long-term strategies to get there”, urged the UN chief.

UNU-EHS/Tanmay Chakraborty I Cyclone Amphan, struck the border region of India and Bangladesh in May 2020 causing widespread destruction.

The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26, is scheduled to be held in the city of Glasgow, Scotland between 31 October and 12 November 2021. The pivotal meeting is expected to set the course of climate action for the next decade.

“We must urgently secure a breakthrough on adaptation and resilience, so that vulnerable communities can manage these growing (climate) risks…I expect all these issues to be addressed and resolved at COP26. Our future is at stake”, Mr. Guterres emphasized.

“We are not yet on track towards the Paris 1.5 to 2 degrees’ limit, although positive things have started to happen and the political interest to mitigate climate change is clearly growing but to be successful in this effort, we have to start acting now. We cannot wait for decades to act, we have to start acting already in this decade”, added Prof. Petteri Taalas, World Meteorological Organization’s secretary general.

The report also cites the conclusions of the most recent IPCC report: the scale of recent changes across the climate system are unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years, and it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land.

Notable findings

Concentrations of the major greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2 O) continued to increase in 2020 and the first half of 2021.

According to WMO, reducing atmospheric methane (CH4) in the short term, could support the pledges of 193 Member States made in Paris. This measure does not reduce the need for strong, rapid and sustained reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

Meanwhile, the UN Environment Program (UNEP), warns that five years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the emissions gap (the difference between where emissions are heading and where science indicate they should be in 2030) is as large as ever.

Unsplash/Maxim Tolchinskiy I Air pollution from power plants contributes to global warming.

Although the increasing number of countries committing to net-zero emission goals is encouraging, to remain feasible and credible, these goals urgently need to be reflected in near-term policy and in significantly more ambitious actions, the agency highlights.

“Last year, we estimated that there was 5.6 per cent drop in emissions and since the lifetime of carbon dioxide is so long, this one year anomaly in emissions doesn't change the big picture. We saw some improvements in air quality, these short-lived gases, which are affecting air quality. We saw positive evolution there. But now we have returned more or less back to the 2019 emission levels", further explained the WMO chief.

Although the increasing number of countries committing to net-zero emission goals is encouraging, to remain feasible and credible, these goals urgently need to be reflected in near-term policy and in significantly more ambitious actions, the agency highlights.

“Last year, we estimated that there was 5.6 per cent drop in emissions and since the lifetime of carbon dioxide is so long, this one year anomaly in emissions doesn't change the big picture. We saw some improvements in air quality, these short-lived gases, which are affecting air quality. We saw positive evolution there. But now we have returned more or less back to the 2019 emission levels", further explained the WMO chief.

A warmer future

NOOR/Kadir van Lohuizen I In Seychelles, efforts are undertaken to improve coastal protection from flooding caused by storms and a rise in sea level due to climate change.

The report explains that the annual global average temperature is likely to be at least 1 °C warmer than pre-industrial levels (defined as the 1850–1900 average) in each of the coming five years and is very likely to be within the range of 0.9 °C to 1.8 °C.

There is also a 40% chance that the average temperature in one of the next five years, will be at least 1.5 °C warmer than pre-industrial levels. However, it is very unlikely that the 5-year average temperature for 2021–2025 will pass the 1.5 °C threshold.

High latitude regions, and the Sahel, are likely to be wetter in the next five years, the report also warns.

Sea level rise is inevitable

"We don't know what's going to happen to the Antarctic glacier, where we have the biggest mass of ice worldwide and in the worst case, we could see up to two meters of sea level rise by the end of this century if the melting of the Antarctic glacier happens in a speedier manner”, cautioned Prof. Taalas.

Global sea levels rose 20 cm from 1900 to 2018, and at an accelerated rate from 2006 to 2018.

Unsplash/Alexander Popov I Transport is a huge driver of air pollution.

Even if emissions are reduced to limit warming to well below 2 °C, the global average sea level would likely rise by 0.3–0.6 m by 2100 and could rise 0.3–3.1 m by 2300.

Adaptation to the rise will be essential, especially along low-lying coasts, small islands, deltas and coastal cities, explains WMO.

World’s health also at risk

The World Health Organization (WHO) warns that rising temperatures are linked to increased heat-related mortality and work impairment, with an excess of 103 billion potential work hours lost globally in 2019 compared with those lost in 2000.

Moreover, COVID-19 infections and climate hazards such as heatwaves, wildfires and poor air quality, combine to threaten human health worldwide, putting vulnerable populations at particular risk.

According to the UN health agency, the COVID-19 recovery efforts should be aligned with national climate change and air quality strategies to reduce risks from cascading climate hazards, and gain health co-benefits.

“We had this temperature anomaly in western Canada and the United States, where we were up to 15 degrees warmer temperatures than normally. And that led to a record breaking, forest fires and major health problems, especially amongst elderly people”, highlighted WMO Secretary General.

The United in Science 2021 report, the third in a series, is coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), with input from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), the World Health Organization (WHO), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Global Carbon Project (GCP), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the Met Office (UK). It presents the very latest scientific data and findings related to climate change to inform global policy and action.

#DoNotTouchMyClothes: Afghan women’s social media protest against Taliban

Stefanie Glinski in Kabul

Women around the world are sharing pictures of themselves in traditional colourful clothes in a campaign against the new strict dress code for female students

Sara Wahedi, Peymana Assad, and Sana Safi who are among the many women posting images of themselves in colourful traditional Afghan clothing on social media. Photograph: Twitter

After street demonstrations across major cities in Afghanistan, women have now taken to social media to protest against the Taliban’s hardline policies towards them.

An online campaign has seen Afghan women around the world share photos of themselves wearing traditional colourful clothes, using the hashtag #DoNotTouchMyClothes.

The protest is a response to a sit-down demonstration orchestrated by the Taliban at Kabul University, where about 300 women appeared in all-black garments covering their faces, hands and feet – the sort of dress previously never seen across the country.

Waving Taliban flags, the women said they supported the militants who have announced that women would not be allowed to hold high-ranking government positions and that schools and universities needed to be gender-segregated.

Since the Taliban took the capital Kabul, it has set up an all-male interim government with just a handful of Tajik and Uzbek representatives and no member of the ethnic Hazara minority.

The ministry of women’s affairs is not part of the new regime, which has brought back the ministry for the propagation of virtue and the prevention of vice, ensuring that sharia law is implemented throughout the country.

Many Afghan women, especially in urban centres, fear that their hard-gained freedoms might be limited, remembering the 1996 to 2001 Taliban regime that saw women largely confined to their homes.

Dr Bahar Jalali, an Afghan historian and gender studies expert, posted the first photo using the #DoNotTouchMyClothes hashtag, which has since inspired Afghan women across the globe.

Peymana Assad, the first person of Afghan origin to be elected to public office in the UK, posted a photo of herself in colourful garments and tweeted: “This is Afghan culture. My traditional dress.”

This is Afghan culture. My traditional dress #AfghanWomen

Thank you to Dr @RoxanaBahar1 for the inspiration.

Our cultural attire is not the dementor outfits the Taliban have women wearing. pic.twitter.com/i9wFASfWR6

— Peymana Assad 🏔 (@Peymasad) September 12, 2021

The BBC’s Sana Safi, posting a similar photo, wrote: “So how do Afghan women dress then? This is how. If I was in Afghanistan then I would have the scarf on my head. This is as ‘conservative’ and ‘traditional’ as I/you can get.”

Musician Ariana Delawari shared a photo of her mother “with me in her belly”, she wrote, wearing traditional dresses and no headscarves decades ago in Afghanistan.

My mom (with me in her belly), my khalas, and my sisters in Afghanistan dresses 🇦🇫🏔 #donottouchmyclothes #afghanistanwomen #AfghanistanCulture pic.twitter.com/P7i9bb0Em7

— ariana delawari (@arianadelawari) September 13, 2021

Despite the Taliban’s announcement that further protests would only be allowed if approved by the ministry of justice, women in Kabul have pledged to continue their demonstrations.

Samira, a Kabul University student, said that this was her only way forward. “The Taliban is already starting to limit women’s freedoms,” she said. “I have nothing to lose. I will either be locked inside my house, unable to continue my education, or I can fight. Even if I risk my life, even if they kill me, it’s better than being silenced.”

Drought puts 2.1 million Kenyans at risk of starvation

Peter Muiruri in Nairobi

National disaster declared as crops fail after poor rains and locusts, while ethnic conflicts add to crisis

A man crosses arid land in western Turkana, one of 23 counties in Kenya facing an urgent need for food due to poor rains. Photograph: David Bathgate/Corbis/Getty Images

An estimated 2.1 million Kenyans face starvation due to a drought in half the country, which is affecting harvests.

The National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) said people living in 23 counties across the arid north, northeastern and coastal parts of the country will be in “urgent need” of food aid over the next six months, after poor rains between March and May this year.

The crisis has been compounded by Covid-19 and previous poor rains, it said, predicting the situation will get worse by the end of the year, as October to December rains are expected to be below normal levels.

The affected regions are usually the most food-insecure in Kenya due to high levels of poverty.

Last week, President Uhuru Kenyatta declared the drought a national disaster promising “comprehensive drought mitigation measures”.

In July, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in Kenya said the country needed 9.4bn Kenyan shillings (£62m) to mitigate the effects of the drought between July and November.

Asha Mohammed, secretary general of the Kenya Red Cross, said most of the affected counties had already had to deal with desert locust invasions, flash floods and tribal conflicts driven by diminishing resources.

“You have two seasons of depressed rains, desert locusts ravaging farmlands in the same counties and people fighting over the few resources available. That is the making of a disaster,” said Mohammed.

She said it was not only farmers who had been affected by the drought, but also people in urban areas who had been forced to pay higher prices for the little available food. “There is some food reaching the urban areas within these counties but there is little purchasing power because many have lost their jobs as a result of the pandemic,” she said.

The coronavirus pandemic has added to food insecurity by reducing available workforce in a country whose subsistence farming relies heavily on communal labour.

A child tries to chase away a swarm of desert locusts near the town of Rumuruti, Laikipia, Kenya, January 2021. Photograph: Baz Ratner/Reuters

The NDMA said social distancing measures had “restricted the communal performance of agricultural activities and availability of casual labour opportunities, reducing the amount of land cultivated and projected crop production”. The disruption of supplies of staple food items and livestock has led to increased price volatility, it added.

Production of maize, Kenya’s staple food, is projected to decline by 50% in the affected regions due to low acreage under cultivation, while some areas will see total crop failure. Poor harvests have also affected those farming crops with short maturity cycles, such as vegetables.

Thomas Waita, from Kathatu village, in eastern Kenya, does not expect to harvest many tomatoes from his half-acre farm this year. Poor rains and dwindling water levels from a shallow well have seen the size of tomatoes shrink and a good portion of the crop damaged by blossom end rot, brought on by insufficient calcium intake.

For the father of two, a poor harvest means little money in the pocket and poor nutrition for his young family. “The tomatoes are ripening but didn’t get enough water. With drip irrigation, I can only afford to water them twice a week rather than daily. They will not fetch good prices at the market,” said Waita.

Waita counts himself among the fortunate ones because he at least had some water for his crops. Lack of water has seen maize planted in neighbouring farms wilt and die after hardly reaching knee height. Many farmers, he said, use irrigation methods that require a regular flow of water and, with rivers drying up, it is a matter of time before his fellow villagers become part of drought statistics.

“We are told it’s because of climate change. In the past, we used to have many trees here but most have been cut down for firewood and charcoal. [Scientists] tell us such fuels are contributing to global warming and changing rainfall patterns,” said Waita.

Mohammed said it is time the country thinks of medium and long-term interventions to mitigate the climate crisis and break the cycle of food insecurity.

“It’s clear this is going to get worse,” she said. “We have all the data to help these communities become more resilient and bounce back.”