Cop26 draft calls for tougher emissions pledges by next year

Adam Morton and Fiona Harvey

Move is recognition of gap between current pledges and goals but critics say it does not go far enough

The text, released by the Cop26 president, Alok Sharma, called on all countries to increase their short-term commitments in 2022. Photograph: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

A draft of the Cop26 negotiation outcome published overnight urges countries to strengthen their 2030 greenhouse gas emissions targets by the end of next year in a recognition of the yawning gap between current pledges and the landmark 2015 Paris agreement.

The text, released by the Cop26 president, Alok Sharma, called on all countries to increase their short-term commitments in 2022, which would be a step forward. It also asks them to agree to an annual high-level ministerial round table focused on raising ambition further starting next November.

However, it refers to the Paris temperature goal, which could limit temperature rises to 2C, rather than the more ambitious goal of 1.5C that many countries and campaigners were hoping for.

It followed widespread dismay on Tuesday after a projection by Climate Action Tracker found, based on analysis of countries’ current 2030 targets, that global heating was likely to soar to 2.4C above pre-industrial levels. Scientists warn a temperature rise on the scale would lead to devastation across the globe due to worsening heatwaves, floods, drought, storms and sea-level rise.

The draft, released before dawn in the UK on Wednesday and to be negotiated by countries over the final three days, is likely to form the basis for the main outcome at the summit, which aims to clarify and build on the Paris agreement.

It proposed that countries agree to accelerate the phasing out of coal and subsidies for fossil fuels – a potential first acknowledgement of fossil fuels’ central role in the climate crisis in a UN agreement – and called on all developed countries to at least double climate finance commitments to help those worst affected across the globe.

On the pace of cuts, it recognised the advice of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that limiting global heating to 1.5C by 2100 would require “meaningful and effective action” by all countries in this “critical decade” to achieve a 45% cut in global emissions by 2030 on the way to net zero by “around mid-century”. The draft “noted with serious concern” that based on current commitments emissions were instead on track to rise 13.7% by 2030.

Developing countries at the talks have been pushing hard for countries to be forced to revise their commitments, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), as soon as possible – next year, according to many.

Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the 1992 parent treaty to the Paris accord, a Cop (conference of the parties) takes place every year. But under the Paris agreement, countries have to revise their NDCs only every five years.

For the High Ambition Coalition, made up of developed and developing countries including the US, the EU, the Marshall Islands and many of the other countries most at risk from climate breakdown, waiting five years for a revision is too long. The coalition put out a statement – not yet signed by all members, but approved by the US and more than 30 others – calling for countries to have to update their NDCs every year if they were not aligned with the 1.5C goal.

Observers said the draft fell substantially short of what was needed. Jennifer Morgan, the executive director of Greenpeace International, said it was a little more than an agreement to “all cross our fingers and hope for the best”, and said stronger action was needed on finance and adaptation, including “real numbers in the hundreds of billions”.

“It’s a polite request that countries maybe, possibly, do more next year,” she said. “That’s not good enough, and the negotiators shouldn’t even think about leaving this city until they’ve agreed to a deal that meets the moment. Because most assuredly, this one does not.

“We’ve just had a landmark study showing we’re heading for 2.4C of warming. The job of this conference was always to get that number down to 1.5C, but with this text world leaders are punting it to next year. If this is the best they can come up with then it’s no wonder kids today are furious at them.”

Morgan acknowledged the text called for an accelerated phase-out of coal and fossil fuel subsidies, but said it was likely “wreckers like the Saudi and Australian governments will be working to gut that part before this conference closes”.

Bill Hare, the chief executive of Climate Analytics, one of the organisations behind CAT, said the draft did not recognise the urgency needed to close the 2030 emissions gap.

He said the Cop president should have called out all countries that had not submitted targets in line with the 1.5C goal of the Paris agreement, and cautioned that the current wording implied further action could be pushed out until 2023.

“The UN secretary general should be invited to convene world leaders at the end of 2022 specifically to address closing the 2030 mitigation and finance gap,” he said. “If this is pushed off until 2023 then the process will really only be addressed in commitment for 2035 – nearly 15 years away – leaving the massive gap in 2030 unaddressed.”

Ed Miliband MP, Labour’s shadow business secretary, commenting on the draft Cop26 text, said: “The last 24 hours have been a devastating reality check on what has actually been delivered at this summit. We are miles from where we need to be to halve global emissions this decade.

“Today, Boris Johnson needs to stop the spin and confront the reality. Given this summit will not deliver anything like what we needed, now he has to turn to plotting a path out of Glasgow that can keep 1.5 alive.”

The UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, who is preparing to return to Glasgow for a day on Wednesday, has urged countries to “pull out all the stops” as the summit enters its final days.

China calls for concrete action not distant targets in last week of Cop26

Jonathan Watts

Senior Beijing adviser also defends scale, depth and detail of country’s ‘unappreciated’ climate actions

‘Unfortunately, China cannot change the China narrative,’ Wang Yi said. Photograph: Jonathan Watts/The Guardian

Chinese officials are sceptical of claims that Cop26 commitments will keep global heating below 2C, and want other countries to focus on concrete actions rather than distant targets in the final week of the talks.

They feel that China, the world’s biggest emitter, is doing more than it is given credit for, including plans to peak coal consumption by 2025 and add more new wind and solar power capacity by 2030 than the entire installed electricity system of the US.

“There has been a lot of criticism of China’s attitude in the media, but many of them are based on incomprehension or misunderstanding,” said Wang Yi, a senior adviser to the Chinese delegation.

During the first week of the UN climate talks in Glasgow, China has been portrayed at times as a reluctant laggard in the effort to keep global heating to 1.5C. The US president, Joe Biden, said it was a “big mistake” for his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, not to show up. China’s climate plan disappointed many because it contained no fresh ambition, and the country was notably absent from alliances to reduce methane emissions and phase out coal.

But Wang, a key consultant on China’s decarbonisation strategy and five-year plan, said his country had delivered a policy framework and detailed roadmap to cut emissions, while other nations were congratulating themselves on vague long-term promises.

He is sceptical of a recent estimate by the International Energy Agency and others that the pledges made in Glasgow could constrain global heating to 1.8 or 1.9C. “Based on our research, I can’t see evidence that we can reach 1.9C,” he said. “But whether we are now on course for 1.9C or 2.7C, the main point is that we should focus on concrete action.”

Wang expressed frustration that the scale, depth and details of China’s climate actions were not appreciated. “Unfortunately, China cannot change the China narrative,” he said. “To reach our targets, we have outlined a change to our entire system, not just in the energy sector but across society and the economy. Nobody knows this.”

China has released five documents detailing plans to achieve its dual goals of peaking carbon emissions in 2030 and reaching net zero by 2060. “If you read those reports you can find all of our actions, but nobody reads everything,” he said.

As an example, he said the working guidance document on carbon peaking and neutrality outlined a strict control on the increase of coal consumption during the 14th five-year period and then a gradual reduction during the following five years. “That means China will peak coal consumption around 2025, though that is not a line you will see in the document. You need to interpret it and nobody [outside China] can do that.”

Similarly, he said the government 1+N policy system provided a roadmap of 37 tasks that the country needed to take until 2060 on areas ranging from legislation and policy to technology and finance. There will be another 30 documents published in the coming year that break down actions needed in key sectors, such as building and transport, as well as major industries including steel and chemicals. “No country has issued so many documents to support its targets,” he said. “It’s a holistic solution, but nobody knows.”

China’s two different targets pose very different challenges, he said. “The peaking issue is easy. More difficult is how to achieve neutrality … We are in transition. Our concern in the future is not that China is too slow, but that it is too fast.”

He said the recent power shortages in China proved how serious it had been in shutting down overcapacity in its coal sector. Every decision had major consequences. “Our coal-fired plants have a life of 10 to 12 years. If we shut them down, who will pay for the stranded assets? Who will employ the laid-off workers?”

Decarbonisation is already under way. By the end of this decade, the government plans to reach 1200GW of wind and solar power, which would exceed the entire installed electricity capacity of the US, he said.

The final week of Cop26 will tackle the most contentious issues on the climate agenda. For China, the priority is to finalise the Paris rulebook, which will determine how money should flow across borders in support of decarbonisation, forest protection and other climate actions.

As at previous Cops, China will also push wealthy nations to make greater financial contributions to developing countries, which have done least to cause the climate crisis but suffer most from its consequences.

Wang pointed out that the 2009 promise of $100bn (£73bn) a year in climate finance had yet to be realised and far more than this would be needed in the future to accelerate the pace of decarbonisation.

“China would like more effort on supporting developing countries,” he said. “If we are going to aim for 1.5C instead of 2C, then there has to be an increase in the funds available to make that happen.”

Much remains to be done, but negotiation teams have less capacity than at previous Cops. Wang said China’s strict Covid regulations had pared down the entire delegation. “When we go back, we will have to isolate for 21 days,” he said. “So our negotiating delegations this time is just 50 people, compared with several hundred in Paris.”

He said Xi Jinping was not attending for the same reason. The fact that the Chinese president only sent a printed statement rather than a video was widely reported in the media as a snub, but Wang said this was incorrect because China had suggested a video message but the UK hosts felt it was not permitted.

China has been hesitant about pushing for a 1.5C target, which would require far more drastic actions. Wang recognised that small island nations may insist on this ambitious goal, but said it should not be to the detriment of other objectives. “1.5C is possible, but it would carry a cost, social and economic. If we cannot solve these problems equally, especially for developing countries, then it is not a real target.”

“We are all in the same boat, but different cabins,” he said. “Some live in a big space and eat too much. We need balance.”

COP26: Indigenous peoples, protests, and a call to end the war on nature

UN NEWS

As millions took to the streets of cities around the world on Saturday, demanding greater climate action, some countries taking part in the COP26 negotiations, made new pledges to invest in nature-based solutions and a greener approach to farming.

Mother Nature, or “Pachamama”, as they say in Latin America, took centre stage as the pivotal UN climate conference reached the halfway point.

Nature is critical to our survival: it provides the oxygen we need to breathe, regulates weather patterns, supplies food and water for all living things, and is home to countless species of wildlife, and the ecosystems they need to survive.

According to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), human activity has disrupted almost 75 per cent of the earth’s surface and put some one million animal and plant species on the endangered list.

UN Costa Rica/Roberto Salazar I Panoramic view from the Costa Rican municipality of Alajuelita.

We have overexploited nature’s resources, deforested lands for agriculture and the cattle industry, while climate change is now exacerbating that process faster than ever, increasing erosion and desertification.

Oceans have become polluted, which absorb around one-third of our carbon emissions, meaning they are losing the ability to be ‘climate change buffers’, according to the UN scientific agency, UNESCO.

It is clear humanity is “waging a war on nature”, as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said several times in recent months, urging greater action.

“We can’t continue to push nature into a corner and expect it to deliver. We want it to sequester carbon, to provide the buffers for the high storms and mangroves and to be the lungs of the world.

"But when we mess with nature, nature will send us these invoices in the forms of greater intensity storms, more fires, more heatwaves and more droughts”, the Executive Director of UNEP, Inger Andersen, told UN News at COP26 on Saturday.

Call for nature-based solutions

Solving climate change cannot be done without solving the challenge of biodiversity loss and degraded ecosystems, a high-level panel that included Ms. Andersen heard.

UNDP Peru I Amarakaeri Communal Reserve (RCA) is a natural protected area of 402,335.96 hectares managed by 10 harakbuts, yines and machiguengas communities in Madre de Dios, in the Peruvian Amazon.

She called for unity and cooperation to find the solutions needed to restore nature and address climate change.

"The social-economic transformations we need, will only happen when we reset our relationship with nature, understanding that we can no longer invest in that which harms our planet”, she said.

As countries recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a big push for nature-based solutions against climate change, and in terms of aiding economic recovery. These are initiatives that provide benefits for nature and for people, UNEP’s chief explained to UN News.

“How can nature help us, and how we can help nature…There are two billion hectares of degraded land and we all need to eat. So, the question is if we are going to cut down virgin forests, or restore that land into a working landscape”, she underscored.

Protecting the original nature experts

No one knows more about how best to protect nature, than the indigenous peoples of the world, which have been very active inside and outside the COP venue in Glasgow this week, working to influence negotiations in every way possible, including street protests.

“The indigenous culture teaches us to respect rivers, lakes, plants, animals and the spiritual beings who live in these places. You can’t solve the climate crisis without including indigenous peoples and without protecting their territories”, activist Eloy Terena told UN News.

UN News also caught up at COP26 with Victoria Tauli-Corpuz, former UN Special Rapporteur on Indigenous Rights, who reminded that indigenous communities really are the experts on living in harmony with nature, one fundamental reason why their territories currently contain 80% of the world’s biodiversity.

UN News/Laura Quiñones I Tayrona National Park, in La Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, Colombia.

“We really use nature to solve all of our problems of food security, of water or climate change and other services and we have done it in a way that doesn’t destroy nature, so we have a lot to share with the dominant world and we need support to stop governments from criminalizing us, for protecting our territories”, she highlighted.

The international environmental activist said that while indigenous communities had strict laws and customs, to protect nature, States have conflicting laws.

“For example, in the Philippines, we have an Indigenous Rights Act, but we also have the Mining Act and well as an Investments Agreement who pushes them to extract our resources”, she said.

Ms. Tauli-Corpuz explained that during COP, indigenous representatives are moving their strategy to influence some of the decisions that are going to be made by the end of the week, including Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which will establish rules for carbon markets and other forms of international cooperation.

“The push is to really say that we cannot have market-based mechanisms if they violate indigenous people’s rights”.

Life or death

Although ancestral communities contribute next to zero to climate change, they have become one of its most vulnerable victims.

UN News/Grace Barrett I Indigenous activists demonstrate on the streets of the COP26 host city, Glasgow, during the landmark UN climate conference.

Daniela Balaguera comes from the Arhuaco indigenous community in the North of Colombia. An ancestral indigenous tribe which lives in the Sierra Nevada of Santa Marta, an isolated mountain range separate from the Andes, that runs through the centre of the country and serves as the source for 36 different rivers downstream.

“Our territories are supposed to be sacred, they are for environmental conservation, but they are not really being treated that way and that is where we must delve deeper. If they are protected areas, they should be given the guarantees and rights that have been recognized but that they are not exercising”, she says.

For her, and many other activists that have expressed their voices at COP, climate change is a matter of life and death.

“We are being threatened with the second extinction of our cultural practices, which is extremely worrying because it would be the second massacre, the second annihilation of our people”, she said.

Negotiations underway

Ms. Balaguera’s concerns are being echoed on the streets of Glasgow this Saturday, and in many other parts of the world such as London and Paris, where activists from all ages and backgrounds have called for a Global Day of Action.

Meanwhile, the COP hosts announced that 45 governments are pledging urgent action and investment to protect nature and shift to more sustainable ways of farming.

The new commitment aims to transform agriculture and food systems through policy reforms, research and innovation, in order to reduce emissions and protect nature, whilst securing food and jobs.

This includes leveraging over $4 billion in new public sector investment in agricultural innovation, including the development of climate-resilient crops and regenerative solutions to improve soil health, helping make these techniques and resources affordable and accessible to hundreds of millions of farmers.  

Approximately a quarter of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture, forestry, and other land use.

COP26 President Alok Sharma, also announced on Saturday that the Glasgow Forest Declaration presented earlier this week, has been now signed by 130 countries, covering 93 per cent of the world’s tree cover.

He gave an update on the current negotiations at COP26 to journalists, informing them that many agreements have been reached, on topics such as gender, agriculture, and national adaptation.

How to Build a Sustainable Home Using Climate-Resistant Materials

Sarah Hollenbeck

One of the greatest sustainability efforts you can make is creating a home that will withstand the elements of where you live, in order to avoid the need to rebuild. In fact, the construction industry is one of the most wasteful- contributing to over 50% of landfill waste. Not only that, but construction also accounts for over 40% of energy use worldwide. These factors together help us determine we need to avoid rebuilding as much as possible.

When building your new home, you will want to use the best materials for your climate to protect your house for years to come. This is why we have curated a guide to the best materials and eco-friendly features for building in each climate. 

Desert Climate

You might think that desert climates are rare- when in reality they are in many of our own backyards. Arizona, New Mexico, and portions of Utah and Colorado are all considered desert climates. These areas feature an extreme lack of water, swinging temperatures, and high evaporation rates. Here are some of the features and building materials to add/use when building your new home in the desert:

• Metal roofing will help control your home’s interior temperature.

• Vinyl windows will create an airtight seal, helping prevent the a/c unit from working extra hard.

• Solar panels are a great, eco-friendly way to power a desert home.

• Adobe exteriors are known for reducing heat transfer, as well as limiting water absorption.

• Stone reflects heat and also lasts many years avoiding the need to be replaced.

Rainy Climate

Rainy climates are great for those who prefer an introverted and peaceful life. This climate is associated with heavy rainfall, high humidity, and lush greenery. With this peaceful life comes risks to your home, such as flooding, mold growth, and warped wood. Here are some great features and materials to include in your new home to withstand the elements:

• Engineered hardwood flooring is great for rainy climates as it does not warp.

• Humidity-resistant paint doesn’t peel in moisture-filled environments.

• Underground downspouts prevent flooding by providing proper drainage.

• Paperless drywall combats mold growth within walls.

Cold Climate

Cold weather can happen anywhere, especially with climate change upon us, but some areas are particularly prone to heavy snowfall, high winds, and ice for months on end. There are some features and materials you can add to your cold climate building project in order to help it withstand the elements. Here are a few:

• Carpet increases heat retention in homes.

• Brick siding helps a home withstand high winds, as well as retain heat.

• South-facing, multi-pane windows increase insulation and lower utility costs.

• Heating tape prevents pipes from freezing over and bursting.

• Cedarwood shingles are able to hold up to heavy snowfall, as well as provide insulation for your home.

Windy Climate

Windy climates, such as the midwest’s tornado alley, are known for their unpredictable weather patterns. They often experience strong wind gusts, as well as severe storms. Here are some great features and materials to help your home sustain its structure in a windy climate:

• Ventilation slots are made on the ridge of your home’s roof in order to prevent the roof from being uplifted by strong winds.

• Masonry blocks as exterior walls in order to prevent debris from flying through.

• Impact-resistant windows and doors to prevent damage to the rest of your home. 

• Rebar is great for homes that are in tornado-prone areas, as it helps secure wall materials to the home’s frame. 

No matter what climate you live in, make sure your home is built to last to prevent a repeat of the wasteful construction process, mitigating the effects of climate change. Building a home with materials and features that can withstand the environment is the best way to make the construction process more eco-friendly, as well as budget-conscious. 

voices are calling for more than lip service

Erik Ortiz

"There are opportunities for Indigenous peoples to be recognized ... if only states and stakeholders are willing to listen and take action accordingly."

Ron Turney, a water protector of the White Earth Nation tribe, has been diligently photographing what he says shows the effects of drilling fluid spills and an aquifer breach in northern Minnesota, where a Canadian energy company finished replacement of a crude oil pipeline in September.

Ira Francisco, of the Navajo and Ojibwe tribes, rallies with the "People vs. Fossil Fuels" at the Capitol on Oct. 15, 2021.Tom Williams / CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Release of drilling fluid chemicals has been ongoing near the Mississippi River in northern Minnesota.Ron Turney

The Line 3 replacement project, first announced by Enbridge in 2014, had been fiercely opposed by Native American tribes, environmental activists and celebrities — who more recently urged President Joe Biden to yank its permits — arguing the pipeline would only aggravate climate change and threaten waters where the Ojibwe people harvest wild rice. Already, he said, he's seen chemicals and muck foul what should be pristine wetlands and water.

"It's really frustrating watching a river die out here in front of your eyes," said Turney, who is a member of the Indigenous Environmental Network, a coalition of grassroots groups and environmental justice activists.

Release of drilling fluid chemicals has been ongoing near the Mississippi River in northern Minnesota.Ron Turney

He plans to bring his concerns to an international stage at a panel during the two-week United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26, which starts Sunday in Glasgow, Scotland. After last year's annual conference was scrapped because of the Covid-19 pandemic, the 2021 event is drawing heads of state and world leaders, such as Biden and members of his administration, including John Kerry, the nation's first climate envoy, and Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, the first Native American in that position.

At stake will be whether the nearly 200 nations can agree on cutting greenhouse gas emissions that are contributing to a rapidly warming planet and catastrophic climate-related disasters, with the goal of reaching "net zero" emissions by midcentury. But while the issues that diplomats debate will have consequences for the entire planet, the lesser-heard voices of the Indigenous people, who have historically been excluded from conversations about managing their ancestral lands, plan to make their presence known through groups like the Indigenous Peoples Caucus and Cultural Survival, an Indigenous-led nongovernmental organization, and panels like the one in which Turney is participating.

Some groups had expressed difficulty this year traveling to Scotland amid Covid travel restrictions. One-third of small island states and territories in the Pacific region, where rising sea levels imperil their very existence, are reportedly planning to not send any government leaders, The Guardian reported last week.

"It's frustrating jumping through hoops, and they give us the lip service and some acknowledgment," Turney said of the conference, "but we want real policy change that truly acknowledges and respects our beliefs."

Tom Goldtooth, the executive director of the Indigenous Environmental Network, said in an email from Glasgow ahead of COP26 that Indigenous groups will be making a point to say the emission-cutting targets that have been touted by governments are meaningless if dependence on coal and other fossil fuels is not abandoned.

Tom Goldtooth speaks in front of the White House during the "People vs. Fossil Fuels" week of action.Ron Turney

"We will be demanding the rights of Indigenous peoples to be fully recognized," Goldtooth, who is of Diné and Dakota ancestry, said.

The struggle of Indigenous peoples, who are often on the front lines of the climate crisis, exemplified by the deforestation in the Amazon rainforest and wildfires ravaging tribal lands in the western United States, will be emphasized at COP26. Indigenous leaders and "traditional knowledge-holders" whose practices can be useful in mitigating and adapting to the effects of a changing climate will be featured at some events and at panels that are typically attended by climate activists, academic researchers and celebrities.

The Indigenous perspective can't be diminished, the groups say, with the U.N. highlighting that while some 370 million people define themselves as Indigenous, or nearly 5 percent of the global population, they occupy and oversee a substantial portion of land, about 20 percent.

In 2007, the U.N. adopted the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, a nonbinding resolution, that recognizes their human rights and fundamental freedoms. But advocates and academics warn that these groups throughout the world who are finding their own solutions in the climate crisis can't do it in a silo, especially when many of them don't have the power or financial influence to advocate for themselves.

"There are opportunities for Indigenous peoples to be recognized at COP26 — if only states and stakeholders are willing to listen and take action accordingly," said Kristen Carpenter, a professor and director of the American Indian Law Program at the University of Colorado.

‘Apocalypse soon’: reluctant Middle East forced to open eyes to climate crisis

Patrick Wintour
Climate Crisis

Northern Oman has just been battered by Cyclone Shaheen, the first tropical cyclone to make it that far west into the Gulf. Around Basra in southern Iraq this summer, pressure on the grid owing to 50C heat led to constant blackouts, with residents driving around in their cars to stay cool.

Kuwait broke the record for the hottest day ever in 2016 at 53.6, and its 10-day rolling average this summer was equally sweltering. Flash floods occurred in Jeddah, and more recently Mecca, while across Saudi Arabia average temperatures have increased by 2%, and the maximum temperatures by 2.5%, all just since the 1980s. In Qatar, the country with the highest per capita carbon emissions in the world and the biggest producer of liquid gas, the outdoors is already being air conditioned.

In Tehran, air pollution kills 4,000 people each year, while in the south-west province of Khuzestan citizens blocked roads and burned tyres to protest against droughts caused by a combination of mismanagement, western sanctions and killer heat. In the United Arab Emirates it is estimated that the climate crisis costs £6bn a year in higher health costs. The salinity of the Gulf, caused by proliferating desalination plants, has increased by 20%, with all the likely impact on marine life and biodiversity.

Smog obscures the view from the Saad Abad mountain north of the Iranian capital, Tehran. Photograph: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

And it is, of course, going to get much worse, as temperatures, humidity and waters rise. The Middle East is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world. By the end of the century, if the more dire predictions prove true, Mecca may not be habitable, making the summer Haj a pilgrimage of peril, even catastrophe. Large tracts of the Middle East will resemble the desert in Ethiopia’s Afar, , a vast expanse with no permanent human settlement pressed against the Red Sea. The gleaming Gulf coastal cities by the end of the century could find themselves inundated as waters rise. It is not quite Apocalypse Now, but Apocalypse Foreseeably Soon.

Jim Krane, an energy research analyst at Rice University Baker Institute in Houston, said: “It is a really tough issue because the interests of the ruling elites run contrary to the interests of citizens. The ruling elites are all dependent on oil rents for the survival of their regimes. They need the oil business to stay alive for them to stay in power. Their system is based on continued oil rent, but ultimately, the citizens’ long-term interests are with a liveable climate”.

Pigeons take cover under the shade of trees on the seafront of Kuwait City in July 2021, as the Gulf state recorded extreme summer temperatures. Photograph: Yasser Al-Zayyat/AFP/Getty Images

Zeina Khalil Hajj, a founder of Greenpeace in the Middle East, says that the region is under a double squeeze. “As demand for energy changes, a region that has been fundamentally reliant on fossil fuel, oil and carbon for its economic survival cannot continue with this dependence. There will be no market for their oil. But as its climate changes, it has an extra duty to shift for its own survival. Extreme weather is changing the lives of the people at a daily level. There is no choice, but to go green.”

The west’s insatiable demand for fossil fuel has allowed this region to build car-dependent cities, full of shiny air-conditioned skyscrapers and malls. Now it has to find a way to avoid its self-destruction; this has to be, in Thomas Friedman’s phrase, the Middle East’s Promethean moment.

In truth, the region has been told for at least a decade that it needs to make the transition out of oil. The precise point oil demand will peak has been contested, and depends on a myriad of assumptions about regulation, technology and consumer behaviour. But many people say demand will peak in about 2040, and then decline.

But the International Energy Association’s report Net Zero by 2050, by contrast, proposed oil demand fall from 88m barrels a day (mb/d) in 2020, to 72 mb/d in 2030 and to 24 mb/d in 2050, a fall of almost 75% between 2020 and 2050. It argued that the Gulf has all three elements needed to switch to renewables: capital, sun and large tracts of vacant land.

Until recently there were few signs that the petro-states, including Iran, felt the need to get out of fossil fuels at that kind of pace.

Asked to comment on the IEA report, including its call for a cessation of new oil investments, the Saudi energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, famously described it as a sequel to La La Land. “If I had to be concerned with IEA projections,” Abdulaziz said in Abu Dhabi during a public forum at the 24th World Energy Congress in 2019, “I probably [would] be [on] Prozac all the time.”

The Qatari energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, said cutting off oil and gas production would cause damaging supply crunches, and laughed at “the euphoria around energy transition”. Opec’s own projections suggest oil demand will rise in absolute terms through to 2045, and oil’s share of world wide energy demand will fall only from 30% to 28%. Hardly a green revolution.

And looking at the current energy crunch, spiralling price of oil and predicted demand for oil this year, the case for a fast transition is harder to make than a year ago.

The Gulf States are still highly reliant on oil and gas exports, which remain more than 70% of total goods exports in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman, and on oil revenues, which exceed 70% of total government revenues in Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain. In Vision 2030, published in 2016, the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, promised to turn the country into a diversified industrial power house. The reality is very different. The World Bank shows Saudi Arabia is still 75% dependent on oil exports for its budget.

A billboard in Riyadh advertising the 2019 Aramaco IPO, the biggest public listing ever. Photograph: Fayez Nureldine/AFP/Getty Images

Aramco, the Saudi company with the largest carbon footprint in the world, is not trying to diversify at the rate of Shell or BP. Indeed, it has just announced an investment to increase crude capacity from 12m barrels a day to 13m barrels by 2027.

Hajj says it may require a rapid psychological shift away from consumerism. “The Gulf is not even close to that kind of conversation. If you see the lifestyle in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, it is based on endless consumption. My fear is that we are so far away from it both in terms of policy and willingness”.

Iran is now the seventh-largest carbon emitter per capita, the UAE the second largest and Saudi Arabia the 13th.

Why the world is getting hotter and how you can help – video explainer

Of course, the Gulf rulers at events such as Cop26 can fend off some criticism by arguing that the Gulf region is not itself collectively one of the great emitters, either now or historically. The region is responsible for only 4.7 % of worldwide carbon emissions, dwarfed by the pollution from Europe, America and China. The oil that the Middle East exports is logged against the carbon emissions of the users, not the producers.

Yet the region’s leaders now appear to be responding to pressure to act not only from the west, but their own population. The goose has finally realised the golden egg – oil – is turning brown. Frank Wouters, director of the EU-GCC Clean Energy Network, says that although even a year ago preaching about the green deal was not exactly rewarding (“It felt a bit like going to the butcher shop and telling them you want to become a vegetarian”), attitudes are changing.

The Gulf’s self-proclaimed first mover, the UAE, was the first country in the region to ratify the Paris agreement and is now the least dependent on oil for government revenues. Last week it announced a “net zero initiative by 2050” to be begun with $163bn (£118bn) of investments and a new minister for climate change and the environment, Mariam Almheiri. The announcement came after the UAE ordered an 80-day brainstorming session in every government department from June. It was the first petro-state to embrace net zero in domestic consumption.

2050: what happens if we ignore the climate crisis – video explainer

The plan is still in its infancy, and some of it is ill defined, but the direction is clear. It has promised to be 50% reliant on renewables and nuclear for its electricity by 2050. The Abu Dhabi national oil company has said it will source 100% of its grid power from nuclear and solar. Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum solar park is expected to be the largest lowest-cost single-site solar park in the world, with a planned production capacity of up to 5000MW. The price of solar coming out of the Middle East is also incredibly low.

Gulf states are deeply competitive, so a flurry of news is emerging. Qatar has appointed a climate minister; Bahrain is targeting net zero by 2050; Kuwait has a new emissions plan.

Saudi Arabia, which rarely likes to be outdone by the UAE, had already said it would increase its share of renewables in electricity generation from a trivial 0.3% to 50% by 2030, as well as plant 10bn trees in the coming decades. At the weekend the world’s largest oil producer staged an unprecedented Middle East Green Initiative Summit in Riyadh, an event that attracted broadly approving speeches from Prince Charles and John Kerry. It promised it would reach net zero carbon emissions within its borders by 2060, less ambitious than the request by Prince Charles to reach the target by 2050 with clear baselines. It also said it would reduce carbon emissions by 278m tonnes a year by 2030, more than double its previous target.

Senior Saudis say they have been maestros at summits, websites and visions, but true credibility stems from turning PR concepts such as a circular carbon economy into a reality. Many in the west are sceptical. Fossil fuels shipped abroad are not on the Saudi’s carbon ledger, owing to UN accounting rules, and the promised internal reduction in emissions is dependent on a heavy bet that unproven blue hydrogen and carbon capture technology will work. Greenpeace Middle East suggested the summit was a fraud to please the US, as the Saudis’ plan included increasing oil production. Others say at least Saudi has felt the need to join – rather than stall – the climate debate.

One reason the Gulf monarchies have been able to be so slow in weaning themselves off the commodity that made them rich is that the wealth has been used to numb public opinion. Citizens have been bought off through a mixture of no taxes, along with water, petrol and energy subsidies. The dynamic is different in Lebanon, Iraq and to a lesser extent Iran. But that is changing, and small green civil society groups are starting to emerge, such as Kesk, Nature Iraq and Greenpeace Middle East.

The Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum solar park, south of Dubai. Photograph: AP

The issue, according to Israel’s leftist vegan environment minister Tamar Zandberg, could transform some of the frozen inter-state politics of the Middle East for the better. Zandberg, who is working to get her own government to adopt net zero, says countries in the region have been very good at looking at the past. Climate change makes it essential they instead talk about a shared future. “We share the same problems, the same sun, the same lack of water, and the same collapse of our ecosystem. We need to share the solutions.”

Green industrial policies key for climate adaptation in developing world

UN NEWS

Green industrial policies will be critical for developing countries to adapt to climate change, UN trade and development body UNCTAD said in a report published on Thursday.

© UNICEF/Helene Sandbu Ryeng I Children create their own boat using tarpaulin and plastic bottles during heavy flooding in South Sudan.

The agency has called for a “transformative approach” that will allow these nations to address current and future climate threats while also driving growth and job creation. 

We cannot only mitigate against #ClimateChange, warns 🆕 @UNCTAD #TradeDevReport.

We must adapt.

But developing nations' adaptation costs have doubled due to inaction and will rise to $300bn by 2030, jumping to $500bn by 2050, magnifying vulnerability. https://t.co/BI5OGipDbA pic.twitter.com/wGYqJRW1vR

— UNCTAD (@UNCTAD) October 28, 2021

The ‘eco-development trap’ 

UNCTAD said many developing countries are caught in an “eco-development trap” as vulnerability to economic and climate shocks are compounding each other, resulting in permanent disruption, economic uncertainty and slow productivity growth.   

“The report demonstrates that sufficient action to adapt to the climate challenge will require a transformed approach that is proactive and strategic rather than simply retroactive,” said Rebeca Grynspan, the UNCTAD Secretary-General. 

“But developing country governments need adequate policy and fiscal space to mobilize large-scale public investment to face future climate threats, while ensuring these investments complement development goals.” 

The study is the second part to UNCTAD’s annual Trade and Development Report, which was released in September. 

Adaptation costs rising 

Although climate adaptation is viewed as a kind of “poor cousin” to mitigation, the UN agency said, this is both shortsighted and costly for developing countries, where climate shocks have damaged growth prospects and forced governments to reallocate scarce resources. 

Adaptation costs for developing countries doubled over the past decade due to inaction, and are set to rise further as temperatures increase, reaching $300 billion in 2030 and $500 billion in 2050. 

Although countries have been advised to strengthen climate resilience by improving data gathering and risk assessment techniques, the report argues that “adaptation is less a matter of risk management and more one of development planning”, with the state playing a key role. 

Sustainable and meaningful impact 

 “Climate adaptation and development are inextricably connected and policy efforts to tackle adaptation must acknowledge this, in order to have a sustainable and meaningful impact,” said Richard Kozul-Wright, director of UNCTAD’s globalization and development strategies division, and lead author of the report. 

He suggested that the only lasting solution, therefore, “is to establish more resilient economies through a process of structural transformation and reduce the dependence of developing countries on a small number of climate-sensitive activities.” 

The report proposes that development can be “retrofitted” to implement green industrial policies which take local economic circumstances into consideration. 

Renewable energy production, for example, can operate at a low scale, thus opening business opportunities for small firms and rural areas. 

This would help to diversity economic production overall, reduce dependency on prime commodities, and even enlarge the tax base, helping create new domestic sources of development finance.  

To escape the eco-development trap, the report recommends that climate adaptation in developing countries should include key features such as “abandoning austerity as the default policy framework”, large-scale public investment in renewable energy and green technologies, and adopting a green agricultural policy that protects small producers and the environment. 

Eco-friendly sex: What is it and how does it impact on climate change?

Harriet Orrell

GETTY IMAGES I How much of an impact do our sex lives have on climate change?

When we think about the different ways we can reduce our carbon footprints, our sex lives are not usually at the top of the list.

Yet web searches for sustainable products such as vegan condoms and waste-free contraception have been steadily on the rise in recent years.

What is eco-friendly sex?

"For some, being eco-friendly sexually means selecting lubes, toys, bed sheets and condoms that have less impact on the planet," explains Dr Adenike Akinsemolu, an environmental sustainability scientist from Nigeria.

"For others, it entails reducing the damage in the creation of porn to workers and the environment. Both examples are valid and of importance."

The UN Population Fund estimates around 10 billion male latex condoms are manufactured each year and most are disposed of in landfills.

That's because most condoms are made from synthetic latex and use additives and chemicals, meaning they cannot be recycled.

Dr Adenike Akinsemolu is a sustainability expert from Nigeria who advocates for living a waste-free life

Lambskin condoms, which have been used since Roman times, are the only fully biodegradable option. However, they are made from the intestine of a sheep and do not prevent sexually transmitted infections (STIs).

Many lubes are also petroleum-based, and therefore contain fossil fuels. This has led to a rise in water-based or organic products. And homemade options are becoming more popular.

Dr Tessa Commers has more than a million followers watching her TikTok videos on sexual health. Her most viewed video - with almost eight million watches - is a recipe for homemade lube made from cornstarch and water.

"The water-based lubricants, organic and vegan condoms are a good pick for having fun and embracing a sustainable sex life," says Dr Akinsemolu. "They not only cause minor damage to the environment but offer their users a great time."

However, caution must be taken with some greener products, as some can't be used with most condoms because they may cause breakage. And before making any decisions around contraception, it is advised that you speak to a doctor or family planning professional.

Sex toys are another area where the use of plastic is widespread. Steel or glass alternatives are available, while the option of buying rechargeable toys also helps reduce waste. There are even solar powered sex toys on the market.

Companies such as LoveHoney also offer a sex toy amnesty where they assist in recycling old and broken toys that cannot go through typical recycling routes.

Where else can waste be reduced?

Then there are less obvious parts of our sex lives where changes can be made to reduce waste.

Purchasing ethically made lingerie and clothing, avoiding shower sex, using less hot water, keeping the lights switched off and opting for reusable washcloths are all ways to reduce our impact on the planet.

Like most things we buy, packaging often leads to waste. Lauren Singer, an entrepreneur and zero-waste influencer from New York, says this is where most companies can make a difference.

Condoms, lube and daily contraceptive pills are all products that can generate packaging that ends up in landfills. IUDs (intrauterine devices) and implants are longer-term contraceptive options, which have less waste but come with their own risks.

Lauren lives almost entirely waste-free and, since 2012, has collected anything she hasn't been able to recycle in a jar.

LAUREN SINGER I Lauren Singer has been collecting all her non-recyclable waste in a jar since 2012

You won't find condoms in Lauren's jar and, as they are the only contraception effective against STIs, she asks all her sexual partners to get tested before sleeping with them.

"I've got a monogamous partner now, but if you don't feel comfortable asking a partner to get tested before going to bed with them, then you probably shouldn't be sleeping with them at all," Lauren says.

However, she says there is nothing more unsustainable than an unwanted pregnancy or a sexually transmitted disease.

"We have to consider what waste is worth producing and what isn't," she says. "People shouldn't not use condoms or not take birth control because of the waste aspect - it's more important to protect you and your partner."

Dr Akinsemolu agrees. "Safe sex, whether using eco-friendly products or not, is the most sustainable for people and the planet in the long run," she says.

The climate impact of reproducing

Which brings us to another point where sex and the environment collide - having children.

According to a 2017 study, living car-free saves about 2.3 tonnes of CO2 a year, while sticking to a plant-based diet saves 0.8 tonnes. By comparison - if you live in the developed world - not having a child saves about 58.6 tonnes per year.

The carbon footprint in less developed countries is much lower, with a child in Malawi estimated to be no more than 0.1 tonnes.

Some influential figures have discussed their reservations about having children. Prince Harry told Vogue in 2019 that he and the Duchess of Sussex would have "a maximum" of two children, citing the environment as a key factor in this decision.

GETTY IMAGES I Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaking at the C40 summit in Copenhagen in 2019

Similarly, US congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told the C40 World Mayors' Summit in 2019 that she was "a woman whose dreams of motherhood now taste bittersweet because of what I know about our children's future".

Birth rates have been on the decline in many countries across the world. The decades-long trend certainly cannot be chalked up to climate change alone.

But a global poll by British scientists this year found three-quarters of the 10,000 young people surveyed agreed "the future was frightening". Some 41% of respondents were "hesitant to have children" citing climate change as a reason.

I'm not having children

Tanmay Shinde lives in Mumbai, in India, and has decided he won't have children for the sake of the environment. The IPCC has predicted his hometown may be submerged by rising sea levels as soon as 2050.

His family has found his decision difficult to understand, although he admits as a man he may have more privileges than a woman in India around this belief.

"Families in India are very traditional and have a culture of following the age-old customs and rituals," he says. "Having children is one of the most important things in life after marriage and there are so many societal pressures to carry on this culture."

Tanmay Shinde is unlikely to change his mind about having children - unless world leaders make big changes

Will he ever change his mind? "A safer planet and sustainable lifestyle are prerequisites for having children so, unless there are strong decisions made and massive changes to reduce carbon emissions and stop global warming, I don't think I'm going to have children."

Professor Kimberly Nicholas, an associate professor at Lund University, in Sweden, co-authored a study that said children in the developed world have an enormous negative impact on carbon emissions.

She does not, however, argue that people should not have children. "It's not my role to endorse or question people's personal choices," she says. "It's a human right to decide freely if they want to have a child. What I'm working for is a world where children who are already alive have a safe planet and society."

Instead she suggests people spend more time reconsidering their travel habits "rather than agonising over wrappings and eliminating every last piece of waste from contraception".

"We should focus our efforts on where it makes a difference," she says.

As someone who has spent a third of her life living waste-free, Lauren is undecided on the question of children.

SIMON CHARLES FLORIAN ROSE I Professor Kimberly Nicholas' research focuses on high impact waste reduction like air travel and plant-based diets

"I've thought about adopting, which I think is something that would be great, but then the actual physical process of having a child - I'm not sure," she says.

Like other decisions about sustainability, she's asking herself whether having a child could be "net positive".

"Will there be a benefit to the planet overall? Can I impart value on this child who will live longer than me and carry on trying to create a better world?"

Asia had hottest year on record in 2020 – UN

Agence France-Presse

Every part of the region affected with extreme temperatures displacing millions of people

Extreme heat hit Chongqing in 2020 Photograph: Sipa Asia/REX/Shutterstock

Asia suffered its hottest year on record in 2020, the United Nations has said ahead of the CoP26 summit, with extreme weather taking a heavy toll on the continent’s development.

The mean temperature pushed 1.39C above the 1981-2010 average, according to a report by the UN’s World Meteorological Organization.

It said every part of the region had been affected with the 38C registered at Verkhoyansk in Russia recorded provisionally as the highest known temperature anywhere north of the Arctic Circle.

“Extreme weather and climate change impacts across Asia in 2020 caused the loss of life of thousands of people, displaced millions of others and cost hundreds of billions of dollars, while wreaking a heavy toll on infrastructure and ecosystems,” the WMO said in its State of the Climate in Asia report.

“Sustainable development is threatened, with food and water insecurity, health risks and environmental degradation on the rise.”

The report comes days before CoP26, the UN climate change conference being held in Glasgow from Sunday 31 October to November 12.

The report also laid bare the total annual average losses due to climate-related hazards.

China suffered an estimated $238bn, followed by India at $87bn, Japan with $83bn and South Korea on $24bn.

But when the size of the economy is considered, the average annual losses are expected to be as high as 7.9% of gross domestic product for Tajikistan, 5.9% for Cambodia and 5.8% for Laos.

Increased heat and humidity are forecast to lead to an effective loss of outdoor working hours across the continent, with a potential cost of many billions of dollars.

“Weather and climate hazards, especially floods, storms, and droughts, had significant impacts in many countries of the region,” said WMO chief Petteri Taalas.

“Combined, these impacts take a significant toll on long-term sustainable development.”

Many weather and climate-related displacements in Asia are prolonged, with people unable to return home or integrate locally, the report said.

In 2020 floods and storms affected approximately 50 million people in Asia, resulting in more than 5,000 fatalities.

This is below the annual average of the last two decades (158 million people affected and about 15,500 fatalities) “and is testimony to the success of early warning systems in many countries in Asia”, with around seven in 10 people covered.

In 2020, average sea surface temperatures reached record high values in the Indian, Pacific and Arctic Oceans.

Sea surface temperatures and ocean warming in and around Asia are increasing more than the global average.

They have been warming at more than triple the average in the Arabian sea, and parts of the Arctic Ocean.

Arctic sea ice minimum extent (after the summer melt) in 2020 was the second lowest on the satellite record since 1979.

There are approximately 100,000 square kilometres of glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau and in the Himalayas - the largest volumes of ice outside the polar regions and the source of 10 major Asian rivers.

“Glacier retreat is accelerating and it is projected that glacier mass will decrease by 20 percent to 40 percent by 2050, affecting the lives and livelihoods of about 750 million people in the region,” the report said.

“This has major ramifications for global sea level, regional water cycles and local hazards such as landslides and avalanches.”

A quarter of Asia’s mangroves are in Bangladesh. However, the tropical storm-exposed country’s mangroves decreased by 19 percent from 1992 to 2019, the report said.

Boris Johnson says chances of Cop26 success are ‘touch and go’

Aubrey Allegretti

PM urges firms to reduce use of single-use plastics and dismisses recycling as ‘a red herring’

Boris Johnson said Cop26 would be ‘very, very tough … and I’m very worried because it might go wrong’. Photograph: Hollie Adams/EPA

It is “touch and go” whether Britain will broker deals adequate enough to curb irreversible climate change at Cop26, Boris Johnson has admitted, as he claimed that encouraging people to recycle more “isn’t the answer”.

The prime minister appeared to lower expectations about whether the global summit of leaders that begins this week would be a success, after the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, confirmed for the first time that he would not attend “in the light of the coronavirus situation”, according to Downing Street.

The move was expected by some UK government insiders, but it will still come as a blow to those who hoped the world leaders whose influence would be key to reducing emissions across the planet would gather around the negotiating table.

Ahead of Cop26 starting in Glasgow on Sunday, Johnson held a question-and-answer session with several dozen children at No 10 on Monday, where he dismissed the impact of encouraging individuals to recycle more.

“Recycling isn’t the answer, I’ve got to be honest with you,” he said. “You’re not going to like this. It doesn’t begin to address the problem. You can only recycle plastic a couple of times, really. What you’ve got to do is stop the production of plastic. Stop the first use of plastic. The recycling thing is a red herring … We’ve all got to cut down on our use of plastic.”

Johnson named and shamed Coca-Cola as being one of 12 corporations “producing the overwhelming bulk of the world’s plastics”. He said the production of the material for single-use items was a “massive problem” and that businesses should “find other ways of packaging and selling our stuff” such as using seaweed, banana leaves and coconuts as substitute materials.

The comment prompted shock from Simon Ellin, the chief executive of the Recycling Association, who told BBC Radio 4’s World at One programme it was “very disappointing” and that Johnson had “completely lost the plastic plot”. He said he agreed plastic production should be reduced, but that “we can’t get away” from needing it for containing and protecting food. Ellin said a strategy for tackling waste recently published by the government put recycling “right at the front of it”, so Johnson “seems to be completely contradicting his own government’s policy”.

Tanya Steele, the chief executive of WWF UK, who was fielding questions with Johnson at the event, appeared to take a different view. “We have to reduce, we have to reuse – I do think we need to do a little bit of recycling, PM, and have some system to do so,” she said.

Johnson interjected to say: “It doesn’t work. I don’t want to be doctrinaire about this, but if people think we can just recycle our way out of the problem, we’ll be making a huge mistake.”

He was also cautious about whether many breakthroughs will come when world leaders gather touch down in Scotland later this week. “I think it can be done,” Johnson said. “It’s going to be very, very tough, this summit, and I’m very worried because it might go wrong. We might not get the agreements that we need. It’s touch and go, it’s very, very difficult … It’s very far from clear that we’ll get the progress that we need.”

The prime minister said it was a “very fair criticism of the world” when challenged by a child on why political leaders were not treating the climate crisis as urgently as Covid. He added: “I share your alarm about where we need to be.”

As well as Putin’s refusal to attend, there are also concerns that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, who has not left his country since the Covid outbreak began, will also miss the event.

During the session, the prime minister also cracked a joke in response to Steele saying humans and domestic animals made up 97% of mammals on the planet, leaving limited resources for wild animals.

Johnson said that to rebalance nature, “we could feed some of the human beings to the animals”. He also joked that given that cows emit so much methane, “we have to encourage them to stop burping”.

When asked whether the government was deliberately trying to lower expectations, No 10 said Johnson’s downbeat comments on the summit meant he was “realistic about what a challenge this represents”.

His official spokesperson also attempted to downplay the comments on recycling, claiming that the prime minister had been “setting out that recycling alone is not enough”.

Asked for clarity on Johnson’s comments about people needing toconsume less, Downing Street would not say whether this meant eating less meat or buying fewer things, and refused to elaborate on the prime minister’s own environmental habits. His official spokesperson said: “There are practical steps people can take voluntarily, which we encourage.”

Madagascar: Severe drought could spur world’s first climate change famine

UN NEWS

More than one million people in southern Madagascar are struggling to get enough to eat, due to what could become the first famine caused by climate change, according to the World Food Programme (WFP).

© WFP/Tsiory Andriantsoarana

Children under five are among the most affected by malnutrition in southern Madagascar.

The region has been hit hard by successive years of severe drought, forcing families in rural communities to resort to desperate measures just to survive. 

Madagascar, the fourth largest island in the world, has a unique ecosystem which includes animals and plants found nowhere else on the planet. The country experiences a dry season, usually from May to October, and a rainy season that starts in November.  

Daily life disrupted 

However, climate change has disrupted the cycle, affecting smallholder farmers and their neighbours, said Alice Rahmoun, WFP Communications Officer in the capital, Antananarivo, speaking to UN News on Thursday. 

“There is of course less rain, so when there is the first rain, they can maybe have hope and sow some seeds. But one little rain is not a proper rainy season,” she said.  

“So, what we can say is that the impacts of climate change are really stronger and stronger….so harvests fail constantly, so people don’t have anything to harvest and anything to renew their food stocks.” 

Varying impacts 

Ms. Rahmoun was recently in southern Madagascar, where WFP and partners are supporting hundreds of thousands of people through short and long-term assistance.   

The impact of the drought varies from place to place, she said. While some communities have not had a proper rainy season for three years, the situation might be even worse 100 kilometres away.  

She recalled seeing villages surrounded by dried-out fields, and tomato plants which were “completely yellow, or even brown”, from lack of water.  

Surviving on locusts 

“In some areas they are still able to plant something, but it's not easy at all, so they are trying to grow sweet potatoes.  But in some other areas, absolutely nothing is growing right now, so people are just surviving only eating locusts, eating fruits and cactus leaves,” said Ms. Rahmoun.   

“And, just as an example, cactus leaves are usually for cattle; it is not for human consumption.”   

The situation is even more dire because, she added, “even the cactus are dying from the drought, from the lack of rain and the lack of water, so it's really, really worrying”. 

Families barely coping  

© WFP/Krystyna Kovalenko I Every month, WFP provides food assistance to 750,000 people in Southern Madagascar

The plight of families is also deeply troubling. “People have already started to develop coping mechanisms to survive,” she said.  

“And that means that they are selling cattle, for example, to get money to be able to buy food, when before, they were able to get food and feed themselves from their own field production, so it's really changing the daily life for people.” 

Valuable assets such as fields, or even houses, are also put up for sale.  Some families have even pulled their children out of school. 

“It’s also a strategy right now to gather the family's forces on finding income-generating activities involving children, so this has obviously a direct impact on education,” Ms. Rahmoun said. 

Providing life-saving aid 

WFP is collaborating with humanitarian partners, and the Malagasy Government, to provide two types of response to the crisis.  Some 700,000 people are receiving life-saving food aid, including supplementary products to prevent malnutrition. 

“The second one is more long-term response to allow local communities to be able to prepare for, respond to and recover from climate shocks better,” said Ms. Rahmoun. “So, this includes resilience projects such as water projects.  We’re doing irrigation canals, reforestation and even microinsurance to help smallholder farmers to recover from a lost harvest, for example.” 

WFP ultimately aims to support up to one million people between now and April, and is seeking nearly $70 million to fund operations.  “But we are also involving more partners to find and fund climate change solutions for the community to adapt to the impacts of climate change in southern Madagascar.” 

COP26: Prioritize adaptation 

In just over a week, world leaders will gather in Glasgow, Scotland, for the COP26 UN climate change conference, which UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called the last chance to “literally turn the tide” on an ailing planet. 

Ms. Rahmoun said WFP wants to use the conference to shift the focus from crisis response, to risk management.  

Countries must be prepared for climate shocks, and they must act together to reduce severe impacts on the world’s most vulnerable people, which includes the villagers of southern Madagascar. 

“COP26 is also an opportunity for us to ask governments and donors to prioritize funding relating to climate adaptation programmes, to help countries to build a better risk management system, and even in Madagascar, because if nothing is done, hunger will increase exponentially in the coming years because of climate change,” she said, adding: “not only in Madagascar, but in other countries.”  

 

Guilt, grief and anxiety as young people fear for climate's future

Natalie Thomas
Barbara Lewis
Jonathan Shenfield

Environmental campaigners hold a stork puppet as they take part in a march and delivery of a petition to the Buckingham Palace, demanding that the British royal family rewild their land, ahead of the COP26 climate summit due to take place in November, in London, Britain, October 9, 2021. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo

Broadly referred to as climate anxiety, research has stacked up to measure its prevalence ahead of the U.N. talks in Glasgow, which begin at the end of the month to thrash out how to put the 2015 Paris Agreement on curbing climate change into effect.

One of the biggest studies to date, funded by Avaaz, an online campaign network, and led by Britain’s University of Bath, surveyed 10,000 young people aged 16-25 years in 10 countries. It published its results in September.

It found around three quarters of those surveyed considered the future frightening, while a lack of action by governments and industry left 45% experiencing climate anxiety and distress that affected their daily lives and functioning.

Elouise Mayall, an ecology student at Britain’s University of East Anglia and member of the UK Youth Climate Coalition, told Reuters she had felt guilty and overwhelmed.

“What I’d be left with is maybe the sense of shame, like, ‘how dare you still want lovely things when the world is ending and you don’t even know if you’re going to have a safe world to grow old in’.”

She spoke of conflicting emotions.

“You might have sadness, there might be fear, there might be a kind of overwhelm,” she said. “And maybe even sometimes a quite like wild optimism.”

Caroline Hickman, a psychotherapist and lecturer at the University of Bath and one of the co-authors of the research published in September, is working to help young people manage climate-related emotions.

“They’re growing up with the grief and the fear and the anxiety about the future,” she told Reuters.

“SENSE OF MEANING”

Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg speaks during the Global Climate Strike of the movement Fridays for Future in Berlin, Germany, September 24, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Mang/File Photo

Ice sculptures of children created by Sand in Your Eye to highlight the importance of COP26, the global climate conference, are seen at New Brighton Beach on the Wirral peninsular in New Brighton, Britain May 31, 2021. REUTERS/Jason Cairnduff/File Photo

London-based psychiatrist Alastair Santhouse sees climate change, as well as COVID-19, as potentially adding to the burden, especially for those pre-disposed to anxiety.

For now, climate anxiety alone does not normally require psychiatric help. Painful as it is, it can be positive, provided it does not get out of control.

“Some anxiety about climate change is motivating. It’s just a question of how much anxiety is motivating and how much is unacceptable,” said Santhouse, author of a book that tackles how health services struggle to cope with complex mental issues.

“The worry is that as climate change sets in, there will be a more clear cut mental health impact,” he added.

Among some of the world’s communities that are already the most vulnerable, extreme weather events can also cause problems such as post traumatic stress disorder.

Leading climate campaigner Greta Thunberg, 18, has experienced severe climate anxiety.

“It’s a quite natural response, because, as you see, as the world is today, that no one seems to care about what’s happening, I think it’s only human to feel that way,” she said.

For now, however, she is hopeful because she is doing everything she possibly can.

“When you take action, you also get a sense of meaning that something is happening. If you want to get rid of that anxiety, you can take action against it,” she said.

Your green credentials may be linked to your genes, scientists say

Sofia Quaglia

Identical twins have more similar views on environmental issues than non-identical ones, study finds

Some people are more environmentally conscious than others, and scientists say the reason could be in their genes.

Extinction Rebellion protesters take part in a blockade of an oil rig maintenance facility in Scotland. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

A study has found that identical twins had more similar views on conservation and environmentalism than non-identical twins. The researchers say this suggests there could be a link between people’s genetic makeup and their support for green policies.

“The goal is to understand why people are different, and such differences come from the combination of genes and environments,” said Chia-chen Chang, a research fellow at the National University of Singapore and lead author on the paper published in the journal BioScience.

“Considering genetic components provides us with a more holistic answer to this question, but genetic results are just about probability, not determinism.”

The researchers used data for more than 1,000 twins from the TwinsUK registry, the country’s largest twin database. They examined responses from identical and non-identical twins to questions about their concern for nature, environmental activism and how environmentally friendly their own behaviour was.

The results suggest that identical twins consistently had more in common across all three categories. This, the scientists say, suggests a link between people’s genetics and their environmental behaviour, as well as suggesting that there is some heritability to environmentalist traits.

“I initially didn’t expect to detect moderate heritability of these traits,” said Chang, though she noted that the results were supported by previous research about evolution which showed heritability for some altruistic and cooperative behaviours.

But the social environment somebody grows up in and is surrounded by still explains more than 50% of individual concern for nature, environmental activism, and personal behaviour, the researchers say.

“Heritability suggests there are genetic components. But heritability estimates are influenced by both genetics and environments,” Chang said. “Our environmental behaviour is probably more complicated than we think.”

Felix Tropf, a professor in social science genetics at the Center for Research in Economics and Statistics, who was not involved in the study, said there was a long way to go to understand the role of heritability in people’s environmental attitudes.

“I don’t think such a study is extremely useful for the issue,” he said. “It might motivate further research that at some point might be very useful, but first it’s important to understand that all we basically observe is that genetically identical twins are more similar than non-genetically identical twins in their attitudes toward climate change.”

In fact, although there may be many genes associated with climate attitudes, they might all do different things in different ways. “There is no one gene that makes you closer to nature or anything like that at all,” said Tropf. He also suggested the researchers should have included information about whether the twins in the study were frequently exposed to nature, as that would be expected to have an impact on the results.

“It’s good to analyse the influences on individual behaviour towards environmentalism, but in the end, climate change is a structural problem, a systemic problem and a political problem,” he said.

Revealed: more than 120,000 US sites feared to handle harmful PFAS ‘forever’ chemicals

Carey Gillam and Alvin Chang

List of facilities makes it clear that virtually no part of the US appears free from the potential risk of air and water contamination with the chemicals

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has identified more than 120,000 locations around the US where people may be exposed to a class of toxic “forever chemicals” associated with various cancers and other health problems that is a frightening tally four times larger than previously reported, according to data obtained by the Guardian.

The list of facilities makes it clear that virtually no part of America appears free from the potential risk of air and water contamination with the chemicals known as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS).

Colorado tops the EPA list with an estimated 21,400 facilities, followed by California’s 13,000 sites and Oklahoma with just under 12,000. The facilities on the list represent dozens of industrial sectors, including oil and gas work, mining, chemical manufacturing, plastics, waste management and landfill operations. Airports, fire training facilities and some military-related sites are also included.

The EPA describes its list as “facilities in industries that may be handling PFAS”. Most of the facilities are described as “active”, several thousand are listed as “inactive” and many others show no indication of such status. PFAS are often referred to as “forever chemicals” due to their longevity in the environment, thus even sites that are no longer actively discharging pollutants can still be a problem, according to the EPA.

The tally far exceeds a previous analysis that showed 29,900 industrial sites known or suspected of making or using the toxic chemicals.

The EPA identified more than 120,000 facilities that may expose people to PFAS

The biggest clusters of facilities are in Oklahoma and Colora

People living near such facilities “are certain to be exposed, some at very high levels” to PFAS chemicals, said David Brown, a public health toxicologist and former director of environmental epidemiology at the Connecticut department of health.

Brown said he suspects there are far more sites than even those on the EPA list, posing long-term health risks for unsuspecting people who live near them.

“Once it’s in the environment it almost never breaks down,” Brown said of PFAS. “This is such a potent compound in terms of its toxicity and it tends to bioaccumulate … This is one of the compounds that persists forever.”

A Guardian analysis of the EPA data set shows that in Colorado, one county alone – Weld county – houses more than 8,000 potential PFAS handling sites, with 7,900 described as oil and gas operations. Oil and gas operations lead the list of industry sectors the EPA says may be handling PFAS chemicals, according to the Guardian analysis.

In July, a report by Physicians for Social Responsibility presented evidence that oil and gas companies have been using PFAS, or substances that can degrade into PFAS, in hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”), a technique used to extract natural gas or oil.

Water samples from Clover Flat landfill in Calistoga, California, have confirmed the presence of PFAS chemicals. Photograph: Courtesy of Brian Lilla

‘Permeating all industrial sectors’

The EPA said in 2019 that it was compiling data to create a map of “known or potential PFAS contamination sources” to help “assess environmental trends in PFAS concentrations” and aid local authorities in oversight. But no such map has yet been issued publicly.

Water samples from Clover Flat landfill in Calistoga, California, have confirmed the presence of PFAS chemicals. Photograph: Courtesy of Brian Lilla

The new data set shows a total count of 122,181 separate facilities after adjustments for duplications and errors in listed locations, and incorporation and analysis of additional EPA identifying information. The EPA facility list was provided to the Guardian by the non-profit Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (Peer), which received it from the EPA through a Freedom of Information request. (Peer is currently representing four EPA scientists who have requested a federal inquiry into what they allege is an EPA practice of ignoring or covering up the risks of certain dangerous chemicals.)

“This shows how PFAS is permeating all industrial sectors,” said Peer’s executive director, Tim Whitehouse.

PFAS chemicals are a group of more than 5,000 man-made compounds used by a variety of industries since the 1940s for such things as electronics manufacturing, oil recovery, paints, fire-fighting foams, cleaning products and non-stick cookware. People can be exposed through contaminated drinking water, food and air, as well as contact with commercial products made with PFAS.

The EPA acknowledges there is “evidence that exposure to PFAS can cause adverse health outcomes in humans”. But the agency also says that there is only “very limited information” about human health risks for most of the chemicals within the group of PFAS chemicals.

EPA officials have started taking steps to get a grasp on the extent of PFAS use and existing and potential environmental contamination, as independent researchers say their own studies are finding reason for alarm. Last year, for instance, scientists at the non-profit Environmental Working Group issued a report finding that more than 200 million Americans could have PFAS in their drinking water at worrisome levels.

The EPA is expected to announce a broad new “action plan” addressing PFAS issues on Monday. The list of facilities handling PFAS is one part of the larger effort by the agency to “better understand and reduce the potential risks to human health and the environment caused by PFAS,” EPA deputy press secretary Tim Carroll told the Guardian.

“EPA has made addressing PFAS a top priority,” Carroll said. “Together we are identifying flexible and pragmatic approaches that will deliver critical public health protections.”

Linda Birnbaum, former director of the National Institute for Environmental Health Sciences and an expert on PFAS, said the EPA compilation of more than 120,000 facilities that may be handling PFAS and other recent moves shows the agency is taking the issue seriously, but more work is urgently needed.

“Unfortunately, where PFAS are used, there is often local contamination,” Birnbaum said. And while the EPA appears to be trying to get a handle on the extent of exposure concerns, progress “seems very slow”, she said.

The American Chemistry Council (ACC) asserts that PFAS concerns are overblown.

Major manufacturers have backed away from the PFOS and PFOA-related chemicals that research has shown to be hazardous, and other types of PFAS are not proven to be dangerous, according to the chemical industry organization. “PFAS are vital” to modern society, according to the ACC.

But public health and environmental groups, along with some members of Congress, say the risks posed to people by industrial use of PFAS substances are substantial.

Four US lawmakers led by Rosa DeLauro, chair of the House Committee on Appropriations, wrote to the EPA administrator, Michael Regan, on 6 October about their concerns regarding PFAS contamination of air and water from industrial facilities, saying: “For too many American families, this exposure is increasing their risk of cancer and other serious health problems.”

More than 150 advocacy groups also sent a letter to Regan calling for urgent action to address industrial discharges of PFAS chemicals, noting that many of the chemicals “have been linked at very low doses to serious health harms”.

Fears and foamy water

One of the sites on the EPA list is the Clover Flat landfill in Calistoga, California, a small community in the Napa Valley area that is popular for its vineyards and wineries. The landfill sits on the northern edge of the valley atop the edge of a rugged mountain range.

Clover Flat has taken in household garbage, as well as commercial and industrial waste since the 1960s, but over time the landfill has also become a disposal site for debris from forest fires.

Though the EPA list does not specifically confirm Clover Flat is handling PFAS, the community has no doubt about the presence of the toxic chemicals. A May 2020 water sampling report requested by regional water quality control officials showed that PFAS chemicals were present in every single sample taken from groundwater and from the leachate liquid materials around the landfill.

Close to 5,000 people live within a three-mile radius of the landfill, and many fear the PFAS and other toxins taken in by the landfill are making their way deep into the community.

Napa Valley resident Dennis Kelly lives downhill from the landfill and worries about contamination from the waste. Photograph: Courtesy of Brian Lilla

Geoffrey Ellsworth, mayor of the small city of St Helena in Napa county, said multiple streams cross the landfill property, helping rains and erosion drive the chemical contaminants downhill into creeks and other water sources, including some used to irrigate farmland. He has been seeking regulatory intervention but has not been successful, he told the Guardian.

A small group of Napa Valley residents have been working on a documentary film about their concerns with the landfill, highlighting fears that exposures to PFAS and other contaminants are jeopardizing their health.

“The water is full of foam and looks soapy and smells funny,” said 69-year-old Dennis Kelly, who lives on a few acres downhill from Clover Flat. His dog Scarlett has become sick after wading through waters that drain from the landfill into a creek that runs through his property, Kelly said. And for the last few years he has suffered with colon and stomach cancer.

Kelly said he fears the water is toxic, and he has noticed the frogs and tadpoles that once populated the little creek are now nowhere to be found.

“Pollution is going to be what kills us all,” Kelly said.

From 'net zero' to 'mitigation,' here's how to sound smart on climate

Laura Smith-Spark
CNN

The whole world seems to be talking about the climate crisis, thanks to months of wild weather and new science showing that we need to act quicker than we previously thought to avoid the worst consequences.

As leaders prepare to meet in Glasgow, Scotland, next month for crunch talks, they'll be using a lot of technical lingo. The terminology isn't particularly communicative and can be daunting.

Even the name of the summit -- COP26 -- sounds more like a bad police drama than a climate event. (First pointer: COP is short for Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention on Climate Change. It convenes global leaders, scientists and negotiators on climate, and usually takes place annually. The "26" means Glasgow will be the 26th meeting.)

Here are other terms to know to keep up with the talks, understand what's at stake and, most importantly, sound smart around the dinner table.

Net zero emissions

Net zero emissions can be achieved by removing as much greenhouse gas from the atmosphere as what's emitted, so the net amount added is zero. To do this, countries and companies will need to rely on natural methods -- like planting trees or restoring grasslands -- to soak up carbon dioxide (CO2), the most abundant greenhouse gas we emit, or use technology to "capture" the gas and store it away where it won't escape into the atmosphere.

Dozens of countries have already pledged to achieve net zero by mid-century and there is huge pressure on countries that haven't yet to do so by COP26.

Negative emissions

To save the world from the worst effects of climate change, scientists say it's probably not enough to reach net zero. Net negative emissions is the situation where the amount of greenhouse gas removed from the atmosphere is actually more than the amount humans emit at a given period of time.

Carbon sinks

A container of young silver firs at a forest tree nursery in Pockau-Lengefeld, Germany.

This is a reservoir that absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and locks it away.

Natural sinks like trees and other vegetation remove CO2 from the atmosphere through photosynthesis -- plants use the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to grow. The ocean is also a major carbon sink because of phytoplankton which, as a plant, also absorbs carbon dioxide.

Scientists say preservation and expansion of natural sinks such as forests are crucial to reducing emissions.

There are also artificial carbon sinks that can store carbon and keep it out of the atmosphere. More on that below.

Carbon capture and storage

Technology to remove and contain carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is known as carbon capture and storage. Carbon is usually captured at source -- directly from coal, oil or gas as it burns -- but new technology is being developed to literally suck carbon from the air.

In both cases, the carbon can be stored, usually buried in reservoirs underground or below the floor of the sea, in what are known as artificial carbon sinks. Some scientists warn that it could be risky to inject so much carbon underground, and this process isn't currently used on a large scale. The Global CCS Institute says just 27 commercial facilities are fully operating worldwide, while more than 100 others are in development. But other experts say CCS is necessary to put a real dent in our emissions.

There are many ways to capture and store carbon. Here are some of them:

• Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is a process in which CO2 produced by heavy industry or power plants is collected directly at the point of emission, compressed and transported for storage in deep geological formations.

• Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) refers to the collection of CO2 from industrial sources, which is then used to create products or services, such as manufacturing fertilizer or in the food and beverage industry. (Fun fact: This CO2 can be pumped into your beer to make it fizzy.)

• Direct air capture and storage (DACS, DAC or DACC) is a chemical process which removes CO2 directly from the air for storage. There were 15 direct air capture plants operating worldwide, according to a June 2020 International Energy Agency (IEA) report.

NDCs

Nationally Determined Contributions -- or NDCs -- is a term used by the UN for each country's individual national plan to slash greenhouse gas emissions.

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, which nearly the whole world signed on to, countries were given the freedom to determine themselves how they would go about meeting the agreement's key targets to slow global warming.

NDCs are supposed to be updated every five years and submitted to the UN, the idea being that each country's ambition will grow over time. Dozens of countries have failed to submit their updates ahead of COP26.

Smokestacks at Skoda's main foundry in Pilsen, then part of Czechoslovakia, on August 29, 1938.

Pre-industrial levels

This usually refers to average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere before the Industrial Revolution, which started in the late 18th century. CO2 levels are estimated to have been around 280 parts per million at that time. By 2020, that concentration had risen to 412.5 parts per million, according to US government figures.

Scientists also talk about pre-industrial levels for average temperatures, using the period 1850-1900 to determine how hot or cold the Earth was before humans began emitting greenhouse gases at larger volumes, like those we see today.

1.5 degrees

A key goal of COP26 President Alok Sharma, a British MP, is "keeping 1.5 alive," which refers to a target to keep average global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It's a target that some fossil fuel-producing countries have resisted, and scientists have warned of significantly worse impacts if this threshold is breached.

What is COP26? How the pivotal UN conference could avert global climate 'catastrophe'

The countries that signed the Paris Agreement in 2015 agreed to limit the increase in global temperatures to well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, but preferably to 1.5 degrees. However, an analysis released last month by watchdog Climate Action Tracker (CAT) found that not a single major economy -- including the entire G20 -- had a climate plan that meets its obligations under Paris.

The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in its latest state-of-the-science report that the world has already warmed by 1.1 degrees above than pre-industrial levels, and is now hurtling fast toward 1.5 degrees.

Climate finance

More than 10 years ago, at COP16 in Cancún, Mexico, the developed world agreed to transfer money to developing countries to help them limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the climate crisis. They set up the Green Climate Fund (GCF) to facilitate some of this transfer, but countries and donors can send money through any means they like.

The money was supposed to build up and reach $100 billion annually by 2020, and that commitment was reaffirmed in the Paris Agreement. This money is often referred to broadly as "climate finance."

But the 2020 target was missed, and filling the gap is high on the agenda for the talks in Glasgow.

Developing nations, particularly those in the Global South, which are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, argue that industrialized nations are historically more responsible for climate change and must do more to fund changes to help developing nations adapt.

US President Joe Biden pledged to double the US' existing contribution plans, including money for the Green Climate Fund, in a speech at the UN General Assembly in September. Some critics say he should pledge more to make up for the Trump years, when no money was paid into the fund.

Adaptation

Vehicles stranded by high water in the Bronx borough of New York City after Hurricane Ida on September 2, 2021.

Adaptation refers to the way humans can change their lives to better cope with the impacts of climate change. These might include building early warning systems for floods or barriers to defend against rising sea levels, for example. In some places where rainfall is decreasing, planting drought-resistant varieties of crops can help ensure communities have enough food to eat.

Mitigation

Put simply, this refers to how humans can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, or remove them from the atmosphere, to ease the consequences of climate change.

Examples include using fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas more efficiently for industrial processes, switching from coal and gas to renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power for electricity, choosing public transport to commute over private vehicles that run on gasoline, and expanding forests and other means of absorbing carbon.

Unabated coal

You might hear leaders talking about the end of "unabated" coal. Unabated coal refers to coal burned in power stations where no action -- or "abatement" -- is taken to reduce the greenhouse gases emitted by its use. In short, this creates a loophole for some continued coal power in a net zero world, if the greenhouse gases it emits are captured.

Very few coal plants in the world, however, are using abatement technologies, and transitioning to renewables is often more economically feasible in the long term than employing them.

In its 2021 report "Net Zero by 2050," the International Energy Agency states that a "rapid shift" will be needed away from fossil fuels to achieve the goal, requiring steps such as "phasing out all unabated coal and oil power plants by 2040."

EVs

A customer prepares to charge a Tesla electric car at a supermarket in north London.

That's electric vehicles to you and me.

As electricity generated by renewables, like wind and solar, becomes more available, people are expected to start buying electric vehicles in greater numbers, especially as they become more affordable. That will mean fewer cars powered by oil on the roads, which is another topic on the agenda for COP26.

There may also be references to PHEVs -- those are plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, which are mostly powered by a battery charged from an electrical source but also have a hybrid internal combustion engine to allow travel over longer distances.

Just transition

This refers to the idea that the drastic changes needed to combat climate change should be fair to everyone.

As environmental campaign group Greenpeace says: "Put simply, a just transition is about moving to an environmentally sustainable economy (that's the 'transition' part) without leaving workers in polluting industries behind. It aims to support good quality jobs and decent livelihoods when polluting industries decline and others expand, creating a fairer and more equal society -- that's what makes it 'just.'"

Biodiversity

Biodiversity refers to all the Earth's living systems, on land and in the sea.

The UN's Global Biodiversity Outlook report published just over a year ago warned that the accelerating climate crisis was worsening the outlook for biodiversity -- that can mean all the trees, plants and animals in a forest, or all the fish and coral in a reef. "Biodiversity is declining at an unprecedented rate, and the pressures driving this decline are intensifying," it said.

Challenges include habitat loss and degradation, mass extinction of species, declining wetlands, and pollution by plastic and pesticides.

Earlier this year, the G7 countries -- the seven largest advanced economies -- agreed to conserve 30% of land and sea in their nations to protect biodiversity, a pledge they hope will be adopted by more countries at COP26.

The Paris Rulebook

At COP24 in 2018, world leaders agreed to come up with a set of rules meant to help curb global warming -- the so-called Paris Rulebook -- which is supposed to put into motion the Paris Agreement. But they did not resolve a critical but complicated issue involving how countries trade and account for certain types of pollution.

COP26 President Sharma has been showing more frustration recently that six years after Paris, the rulebook is still unfinished. "This must be resolved if we are to unleash the full power of the Paris Agreement," he said earlier in October.

COP26 organizers say the rulebook priorities are to: find a solution on carbon markets by creating a robust system of carbon credits; resolve issues around transparency, by putting in place a system that encourages all countries to keep their commitments; and to broker an agreement that drives ambition from governments to meet the 1.5-degree goal.

CNN's Ivana Kottasova contributed to this report.

Carbon emissions ‘will drop just 40% by 2050 with countries’ current pledges’

Rob Davies

International Energy Agency says $4tn investment needed over decade to reach net zero target

Steam rises from a coal-fired power station in South Africa. Sections of the report show coal use growing strongly, contributing to the second-largest increase in CO2 emissions in history. Photograph: Siphiwe Sibeko/Reuters

Current plans to cut global carbon emissions will fall 60% short of their 2050 net zero target, the International Energy Agency has said, as it urged leaders to use the upcoming Cop26 climate conference to send an “unmistakable signal” with concrete policy plans.

In its annual World Energy Outlook, redesigned this year as a “guidebook” for world leaders attending the summit in Glasgow, the IEA predicted that carbon emissions would decrease by just 40% by the middle of the century if countries stick to their climate pledges.

The organisation said the difference between current plans and the change necessary to reach the net zero target was “stark”, requiring up to $4tn (£2.94tn) in investment over the next decade alone to bridge the divide.

The IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol told the Guardian that major economies recovering from Covid-19 were already missing the opportunity to spur investment in clean energy.

“We are witnessing an unsustainable recovery from the pandemic,” he said, pointing to sections of the report that show coal use growing strongly, contributing to the second-largest increase in CO2 emissions in history.

Birol called for developing economies in particular to make tougher commitments to reducing carbon emissions. But he said this could not happen without leaders of wealthier nations attending Cop26 taking steps to unlock the flow of money into emerging economies, by applying pressure on private investors.

“I’d like to see world leaders … come together and give a political message to the world that we are determined to have a clean energy future.

“[They should say] we are determined, if you invest in old energy sources, dirty energy sources, you are risking to lose your money. If you invest in clean energy, you’ll make handsome profits.”

The IEA’s outlook estimates that 70% of the $4tn investment required to reach net zero must flow into emerging markets and developing economies.

Birol said the most powerful world leaders could make it a “mandatory task” for organisations such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to prioritise clean energy projects in those countries, acting as a catalyst for private capital.

The warning comes as the UK and Europe wrestle with sky-high gas prices that threaten to increase winter costs for consumers, shut down factories and disrupt under-pressure supply chains for food and retail.

The crisis has highlighted the danger of relying on fossil fuels subject to price volatility, but also the fact the region still relies heavily on gas, with renewables as yet unable to meet energy needs.

The IEA said the price crunch had given “advance warning” of the risk of moving too slowly towards renewables. Birol condemned as “inaccurate and misleading” recent claims that the energy price crisis had been partly caused by efforts to make the transition. “We will see that in a clean energy world, the shocks coming from doubling of oil and gas prices will be much less felt by consumers,” he said.

As heavy industry in the UK pleaded with the government for more support to survive high energy costs, Birol acknowledged that “temporary measures” may be needed to save struggling industries, as long as this was not at the expense of the clean energy transition.

Despite the IEA’s warnings about inadequate progress towards net zero, the organisation – set up by major economies in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis – said much of the extra investment required to reach the target could be done relatively easily.

More than 40% of the required reduction in emissions could come from measures that “pay for themselves”, the IEA said, such as improving efficiency, limiting gas leakage, or installing wind or solar in places where they are already cheap and efficient.

The IEA also pointed to the potential economic opportunities of net zero. It said existing pledges to reduce emissions would create 13m jobs but that stepping up the measures to meet the target would double that figure.

The required investment would create a market for wind turbines, solar panels, lithium-ion batteries, electrolysers and fuel cells of well over $1tn a year, comparable with the current oil market, it said.

Finance Ministers hold key to COP26 success: UN Secretary-General

UN NEWS
Climate and Environment

The COP26 climate change conference must be “a turning point” if countries are to limit global temperature rise in line with the Paris Agreement, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on Tuesday. 

NOOR/Kadir van Lohuizen
In Seychelles, efforts are undertaken to improve coastal protection from flooding caused by storms and a rise in sea level due to climate change.

Addressing members of the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action, he highlighted their critical role as the conference date fast approaches.  

The planet's resources still do not figure in countries’ calculations of wealth.

The current system is weighted towards destruction, not preservation.

The world must reconsider how GDP is calculated, reflecting nature's true value in all policies, plans and economic systems.

— António Guterres (@antonioguterres) October 12, 2021

“As Ministers of Finance, you hold the key to success for COP26 and beyond,” he said in a video message to their latest meeting, held from Washington, DC. 

“Your decisions and actions in the coming weeks will determine whether the global economic recovery will be low-carbon, resilient and inclusive or whether it will lock-in fossil fuel-intensive investments with high risks of stranded assets,” he added. 

Closing the gaps 

COP26 opens later this month in Glasgow, Scotland, and Mr. Guterres outlined three key areas where progress is needed. 

Countries must “swiftly close the emissions gap”, he said.  They also must be ready to update climate commitments to get the world back on track to keeping global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. 

Meanwhile, richer countries must also close “the finance gap” by providing, and exceeding, the $100 billion annually promised to support climate action in developing nations. 

“And this is just a starting point,” the UN chief said.  Public and private finance “must align with a net zero and resilient development pathway,” he added. 

“That is why I call on each of you as ministers of finance to take decisive steps to make climate risk disclosures mandatory in line with the recommendations of the Taskforce on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures.” 

Support for adaptation 

With climate change increasingly affecting lives and livelihoods each year, “Glasgow must deliver a breakthrough on adaptation”, the Secretary-General said. 

He urged the ministers to consider allocating half of all public climate finance in support of developing countries for adaptation. 

They were also encouraged to reconsider how Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is calculated, to reflect the true value of nature. 

“Nature’s resources still do not figure in countries’ calculations of wealth,” said Mr. Guterres.  “We need nature-based solutions for adaptation and mitigation.  The current system is weighted towards destruction, not preservation.” 

Measures to rebuild trust 

The Secretary-General underlined the critical role finance ministers have in the success of COP26 and beyond.  He said urgently improving access to climate and development finance will be key to rebuilding trust among countries at the conference. 

“Your representatives at the boards of multilateral development banks could request management to present as soon as possible a set of concrete measures, implementable by the end of next year at the latest, to address red tape issues and improve the speed and efficiency of systems and processes in all development finance institutions,” he added. 

As climate change and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic pose new and unique challenges to low- and middle-income countries, the UN chief it was only logical to revise current thresholds for Official Development Assistance (ODA) to improve access to finance. 

He appealed for ministers to instruct their country representatives to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to review the process for eligibility. 

The UN chief further called for ministers to support development of the Multidimensional Vulnerability Index, aimed at helping Small Island Developing States to access concessional financing. 

Halt destruction of nature or risk ‘dead planet’, leading businesses warn

Patrick Greenfield

Exclusive: executives demand meaningful action to protect ecosystems as UN biodiversity summit opens

A lion and a lioness in Nairobi national park, Kenya. The current draft of the UN agreement for nature does not go far enough to stop loss of nature, say big businesses. Photograph: Baz Ratner/Reuters

World leaders must do more to prevent the destruction of nature, business leaders have warned before a summit in China that aims to draw up a draft UN agreement for biodiversity.

In an open letter, the chief executives of Unilever, H&M and nine other companies have called on governments to take meaningful action on mass extinctions of wildlife and the collapse of ecosystems or risk “a dead planet”.

The warning comes as China prepares to assume the presidency of a major UN environment meeting for the first time by hosting the opening phase of the convention on biological diversity (CBD) Cop15 meeting in Kunming this week, with most delegates attending virtually.

In the second phase of talks next year, which have been delayed repeatedly because of the pandemic, governments will thrash out this decade’s targets for preventing biodiversity loss in person.

In the letter, the Business for Nature coalition said the current draft of a Paris-style UN agreement for nature, which includes targets to eliminate plastic pollution, reduce pesticide use by two-thirds and halve the rate of invasive species introduction by 2030, did not go far enough to halt the destruction of the natural world. Separately, more than 1,000 companies with $4.7tn (£3.5tn) in revenue have signed a call by the group for governments to adopt policies to reverse nature loss by 2030.

The Paris climate agreement, adopted in 2015, is a legally binding international treaty to tackle the climate crisis by pledging to hold global heating to below 2C, the scientifically advised limit of safety, with an aspiration not to breach 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

“Nature is at a tipping point and time is against us. We must recognise nature loss for the crisis that it is,” said the letter to world leaders, shared exclusively with the Guardian. “We must understand that while it is critical for tackling climate change, nature represents more than simply a climate solution.

“The Cop15 biodiversity conference is our last and best chance of turning the tide of biodiversity loss. The draft Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework lacks the ambition and specificity required to drive the urgent action needed,” it said.

The executives urged world leaders to commit to an equivalent of the 1.5C climate target for nature around which businesses and civil society can unify, writing that current proposals were unclear. They also urged governments to eliminate and redirect all environmentally harmful subsidies and embed the economic value of nature in decision-making.

More than half of the world’s annual GDP – $42tn (£32tn) – depends on high-functioning biodiversity, according to a Swiss Re report last year, which also found a fifth of the world’s countries risk having their ecosystems collapse.

“We need to track our impact on the climate and nature with the same discipline we track our profit and loss,” said Roberto Marques, chief executive of Natura & Co, which owns the Body Shop and Aesop, who signed the letter. “We are calling on governments to eliminate and redirect all harmful subsidies. Governments still provide a lot of subsidies for industries and initiatives that are very harmful for nature.”

Marques said China’s presidency was an important moment as decisions made by the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter would decide whether or not the world met environmental targets this century.

China, which is due to assume the presidency of Cop15, has set out its actions on biodiversity conservation in a white paper presented last week. Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock

Eva Zabey, director of Business for Nature, said: “There’s a double drumbeat with Cop15 followed straight away by Cop26. We know that nature will be a key feature of Glasgow so this is our opportunity to really raise that policy ambition.

“What happened with the Paris agreement is that once you have political ambition, it gives companies that certainty to invest, innovate, shift their business models. By using the Earth’s limits as a framework, companies can make sure they are doing their fair share.”

China’s president, Xi Jinping, is expected to speak this week at the largely ceremonial first phase of Cop15. The Guardian understands that the second meeting, scheduled to be held in-person in Kunming from 25 April to 8 May 2022, may be moved from China due to pandemic border restrictions.

Elizabeth Maruma Mrema, the UN’s biodiversity chief, has had to spend three weeks in quarantine to attend the event in China, along with other CBD staff.

David Cooper, deputy executive secretary of the CBD, said that discussions were advancing well, despite the pandemic. “We look to political leaders to now mandate their negotiators to find consensus while ensuring the necessary ambition on biodiversity goals and the means to achieve them,” he said.

Filipina and Russian given 2021 award as organisers warn of threat to independent media worldwide

Journalists Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov win Nobel peace prize

Jon Henley, Pjotr Sauer in Moscow and Rebecca Ratcliffe, South-east Asia correspondent

Maria Ressa (left), journalist and CEO of the Rapler news website, and Dmitry Muratov, editor-in-chief of Russia's main opposition newspaper Novaya Gazeta. Composite: Reuters; AFP

Campaigning journalists from the Philippines and Russia have won the 2021 Nobel peace prize as the Norwegian committee recognised the vital importance of an independent media to democracy and warned it was increasingly under assault.

Maria Ressa, the chief executive and co-founder of Rappler, and Dmitry Muratov, the editor-in-chief of Novaya Gazeta, were named as this year’s laureates by Berit Reiss-Andersen, the chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

“Free, independent and fact-based journalism serves to protect against abuse of power, lies and war propaganda,” Reiss-Andersen said, praising the two journalists’ “courageous fight for freedom of expression, a precondition for democracy and lasting peace”.

A free press was essential to promoting “fraternity between nations, disarmament and a better world order”, she said, adding that the committee considered Ressa and Muratov to be “representatives of all journalists who stand up for this ideal in a world in which democracy and freedom of the press face increasingly adverse conditions”.

The press freedom NGO Reporters Without Borders (RSF), which says 24 journalists have been killed since the beginning of the year and 350 others imprisoned, called the award “a call for mobilisation to defend journalism” that had sparked a sense of both “joy and urgency”.

Ressa, 58, a former CNN bureau chief in the Philippines, and Rappler, the news site she founded in 2012, have faced multiple criminal charges and investigations after publishing stories critical of President Rodrigo Duterte and his bloody drugs war.

Nobel peace prize winner Maria Ressa: 'A world without facts means a world without truth' – video

In emotional comments aired on Rappler’s Facebook page, she said: “This is a recognition of how hard it is to be a journalist today. How hard it is to keep doing what we do … It’s a recognition of the difficulties, but also hopefully of how we’re going to win the battle for truth. The battle for facts. We hold the line.”

In a subsequent interview, Ressa, who is on bail pending an appeal against a conviction in a cyber libel case for which she faces up to six years in prison, said the award was for Rappler, and showed the Nobel peace prize committee had recognised that “a world without facts means a world without truth and without trust”.

When facts have become debatable, she said, and when “the world’s largest distributor of news prioritises the spread of lies laced with anger and hate – then journalism becomes activism … It’s about the facts, right?” She told Norwegian TV the reward gave her and Rappler “tremendous energy to continue the fight”.

Amal Clooney, a member of Ressa’s legal team, said: “I am so proud of my client and friend. She has sacrificed her own freedom for the rights of journalists all over the world. I hope the Philippine authorities will now stop persecuting her and other journalists, and that this prize helps to protect the press around the world.”

Muratov, 59, who was one of the founders of the independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta in 1993 and has been its editor-in-chief since 1995, told the Telegram news service Podyom: “We will continue to represent Russian journalism, which is now being suppressed. That’s all.”

He was later quoted by the Russian news agency Tass as saying the award “is for Novaya Gazeta, and also for those who died defending the right of people to freedom of speech. Now that they are no longer with us, [the Nobel committee] probably decided I should tell it to everyone.”

He then proceeded to list journalists murdered in Russia for their work: “It’s for Igor Domnikov, it’s for Yuri Shchekochikhin, it’s for Anna Stepanovna Politkovskaya, it’s for Nastya Baburova, it’s for Natasha Estemirova, for Stas Markelov. This is for them.”

Christophe Deloire, RSF’s secretary general, said there was “joy because this is an extraordinary tribute to journalism, an excellent tribute to two incredible figures, Maria and Dmitry”. But there was also a feeling of urgency, he said, because “journalism is in danger, journalism is weakened, journalism is threatened … all over the world”.

According to the RSF’s latest world rankings, the situation for press freedom is “difficult or very serious” in 73% of the 180 countries it evaluates, and “good or satisfactory” in only 27%. Attempts to stifle independent media – from physical violence through state censorship to targeted financial pressure – are multiplying around the world, the group says.

The Nobel committee said Rappler had focused “critical attention on the Duterte regime’s controversial, murderous anti-drug campaign” which had caused so many deaths that “it resembles a war waged against the country’s own population”.

Ressa and Rappler had also “documented how social media is being used to spread fake news, harass opponents and manipulate public discourse”, the committee said. It said of Muratov’s Novaya Gazeta that the newspaper was “the most independent newspaper in Russia today, with a fundamentally critical attitude towards power”.

The paper’s “fact-based journalism and professional integrity have made it an important source of information on censurable aspects of Russian society rarely mentioned by other media”, the committee said. Despite harassment, threats, violence and murder, Muratov had refused to abandon the newspaper’s independent policy.

“He has consistently defended the right of journalists to write anything they want about whatever they want, as long as they comply with the professional and ethical standards of journalism,” Reiss-Andersen said.

Pavel Kanygin, a veteran reporter at Novaya Gazeta, said: “This is great encouragement for us all; the last few months have been very difficult for Russian journalism. I hope this will help to protect us against attacks from the authorities. This is an award that is important not just for us, but the whole Russian independent journalist community.”

The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, congratulated Muratov on winning the prize, hailing him as a “talented and brave” person.

The prestigious award is accompanied by a gold medal and 10m Swedish kronor (£840,000). The prize money comes from a bequest left by the prize’s creator, the Swedish inventor Alfred Nobel, who died in 1895.

This year’s nominees included the environmental activist Greta Thunberg, the Belarusian human rights activist and politician Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and the jailed Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny.

Organisations nominated included Black Lives Matter, the World Health Organization, the Covax vaccine sharing body, and the press freedom groups RSF and the Committee to Protect Journalists.

Previous laureates include the Pakistani campaigner for female education Malala Yousafzai, anti-apartheid leader Nelson Mandela, US president Barack Obama, the Dalai Lama, Catholic missionary Mother Teresa, civil rights leader Martin Luther King, Chinese writer and activist Liu Xiaobo, and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev.

Gorbachev, who helped fund the launch of Novaya Gazeta with the proceeds of his prize, said the decision was “good news” for the world’s press.

“This is good, very good news,” he said in a statement. “This award raises the importance of the press in the modern world to great heights.”

‘Eco-anxiety’: fear of environmental doom weighs on young people

Andrew Gregory

Although not a diagnosable condition, experts says climate anxiety is on the rise worldwide

The climate crisis is taking a growing toll on the mental health of children and young people, experts have warned.

Increasing levels of “eco-anxiety” – the chronic fear of environmental doom – were likely to be underestimated and damaging to many in the long term, public health experts said.

Writing in the British Medical Journal, Mala Rao and Richard Powell, of Imperial College London’s Department of Primary Care and Public Health, said eco-anxiety “risks exacerbating health and social inequalities between those more or less vulnerable to these psychological impacts”.

Although not yet considered a diagnosable condition, recognition of eco-anxiety and its complex psychological effects was increasing, they said, as

In September children and young people around the world, including Glasgow,
took part in protests against the climate crisis. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

was its “disproportionate” impact on children and young people.

In their article, they pointed to a 2020 survey of child psychiatrists in England showing that more than half (57%) are seeing children and young people distressed about the climate crisis and the state of the environment.

A recent international survey of climate anxiety in young people aged 16 to 25 showed that the psychological burdens of climate crisis were “profoundly affecting huge numbers of these young people around the world”, they added.

Rao and Powell called on global leaders to “recognise the challenges ahead, the need to act now, and the commitment necessary to create a path to a happier and healthier future, leaving no one behind”.

Research offered insights into how young people’s emotions were linked with their feelings of betrayal and abandonment by governments and adults, they said. Governments were seen as failing to respond adequately, leaving young people with “no future” and “humanity doomed”.

Their warning comes a week after Greta Thunberg excoriated global leaders, dismissing their promises to address the climate emergency as “blah, blah, blah”.

In April, she quoted Boris Johnson, who derisively used the phrase “bunny hugging” to describe climate activism. Thunberg said: “This is not some expensive, politically correct, green act of bunny hugging”.

By 2030 carbon emissions are expected to rise by 16%, according to the UN, rather than fall by half, which is the cut needed to keep global heating under the internationally agreed limit of 1.5C.

Rao and Powell said it was important to consider what could be done to alleviate the rising levels of climate anxiety.

Protest in a pandemic: voices of young climate activists – video

“The best chance of increasing optimism and hope in the eco-anxious young and old is to ensure they have access to the best and most reliable information on climate mitigation and adaptation,” they said. “Especially important is information on how they could connect more strongly with nature, contribute to greener choices at an individual level, and join forces with like-minded communities and groups.”

Separately, new research also published in the BMJ suggests changing unhealthy behaviour could be key to achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Theresa Marteau, of the University of Cambridge, said technological innovation alone would be insufficient.

Adopting a largely plant-based diet and taking most journeys using a combination of walking, cycling and public transport would substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve health, she said.