John Kerry warns a long Ukraine war would threaten climate efforts

Fiona Harvey

Exclusive: US presidential envoy says limiting global heating to 1.5C could be made harder by conflict

The longer the war in Ukraine carries on, the worse the consequences will be for the climate, the US presidential envoy John Kerry has warned.

Many countries are struggling with an energy crisis while also urgently needing to cut greenhouse gas emissions to limit global heating to 1.5C, he said.

John Kerry: ‘My message to people is we have to take advantage of the fact that the science tells us we still have time, but we have to greatly accelerate what we’re doing.’ Photograph: Orn E Borgen/AP

“If it’s a long period of time, obviously that makes [staying within 1.5C] very complicated,” Kerry said. “It depends on what happens with the war, where the war goes and how long it lasts. If miraculously we can somehow find a way to resolve some of the fundamental problems in the next six months, then maybe we could just accelerate everything together. I think we can make up some distance [in progress on tackling the climate crisis].”

But he added: “The longer this goes on, the harder it becomes [to stay within 1.5C]. There are a number of scientists who believe we are on the edge of 1.5C now. Anything that is not part of the acceleration [of emissions-cutting efforts] gets in the way.”

He said the agreement reached at the UN Cop26 climate summit last year would have “faced some big hurdles” if taking place in the current geopolitical circumstances, but there was still a chance of fulfilling its promises.

“This is not easy, but it hasn’t fallen apart,” he told the Guardian. “[The effort to stay within 1.5C] has met with an unexpected barrier, the war, and it has met with an unfortunate and dangerous resurgence of business as usual by some parties that threatens the acceleration necessary to get the job done, and it’s going to be up to us to push back and continue with the process.”

The world’s leading climate scientists recently warned it was “now or never” for the world to cut greenhouse gas emissions and avoid the worst ravages of the climate crisis.

Kerry said this showed there was still a chance of holding to the 1.5C goal. “The IPCC said to us a few weeks ago ‘we’re behind, it’s not getting better at the pace it should be, emissions have gone up, but you still have time to do this’,” he said. “And my message to people is we have to take advantage of the fact that the science tells us we still have time, but we have to greatly accelerate what we’re doing. We have to speed up very significantly.”

He said the disruption caused by the Ukraine war was forcing countries to reconsider their dependence on fossil fuels. “The promises of Cop26 were never going to be fulfilled in six months, or one year or two years. These are promises for 2030. A hiccup of a number of months may be something that we can work around or get through.”

Kerry also said the US would increase its production of natural gas, despite its climate targets, to help allies replace Russian fossil fuels. He said gas from the US produced lower carbon emissions than gas from Russia, owing to more efficient extraction, and could provide a short-term solution while countries ramp up renewable energy.

The US president, Joe Biden, has come under heavy criticism from green campaigners in the US for allowing the expansion of gas drilling, opening up new tracts of public land for exploration and development. Kerry said more gas was needed in the short term, to make up for supplies lost from Russia, but that companies should beware of building large amounts of new gas infrastructure that would be left as stranded assets when the energy crisis passes.

“Gas has always been part of the transition away from dirtier fossil fuels and towards this new energy economy,” he said. “I’d take a gas-fired power plant in the near term – I emphasise near term – over coal or oil any day of the week. But we don’t want to build out a huge new infrastructure around gas that has stranded asset challenges or is unabated [not fitted with technology to capture and store carbon] after a number of years.”

He hinted at moves to limit how long such plants could operate. “We have to decide how quickly we must have a requisite for abatement – maybe 10 years, eight years, who knows? But for the long run, gas is going to have to abate and live up to low emissions standards just like everybody else,” he said.

With six months to go before the next UN climate summit, Cop27 in Egypt, Kerry said the focus must be on the G20 countries, the world’s 20 biggest economies, which are responsible for about 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The emissions-cutting plans these countries brought to Cop26 were inadequate to meet the 1.5C target, so they have been asked to come to Egypt this November with more stringent proposals.

Kerry acknowledged that many countries were unlikely to meet the targets, including Russia, which is one of the biggest fossil fuel producers. He warned some countries were “indifferent” to the need to cut emissions, or have vested interests in not doing so.

“The war is not the only thing that’s in the way of the acceleration – an unfortunate indifference in some quarters, outright disinformation in others, and people who just love the status quo is perhaps one of our biggest problems,” he said.

But there were hopes that major emitters including China and India were embracing change, he added. “We’re prepared to try to help China or provide whatever China is willing to accept in terms of assistance.”

He also pointed to India, currently suffering a massive heatwave, where a large expansion of renewable energy is planned that could enable the country to cut emissions in line with a global 1.5C temperature goal.

Kerry said he was hopeful that the climate legislation currently stuck in Congress, largely because of the refusal of a single Democratic senator to pass it, would soon be resolved. He said other countries were unlikely to be discouraged from taking action themselves by the US’s own internal difficulties.

“Maybe they’ll say ‘screw them, they can’t get their act together, we’re going to do it’,” he said. “I can’t predict, but I can tell you this: that President Biden is committed to moving forward and obviously he has administrative powers and can issue certain executive orders and do certain things.

“Even while Donald Trump was president, pulled out of Paris, 75% of the new power that came online in the US was renewable. So the truth is that a lot of what happens in the US will be governed locally and some nationally by governors of states and mayors of cities who are deeply committed.”

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Ending the War of Attrition in Ukraine

JEFFREY D. SACHS

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has degenerated into a savage war of attrition that each side believes it will win, but which in reality both sides will lose. Ukraine should intensify the search for a negotiated peace of the kind that was on the table in March, but which was abandoned following the Russian atrocities in Bucha.

NEW YORK – Wars often erupt and persist because of the two sides’ miscalculations regarding their relative power. In the case of Ukraine, Russia blundered badly by underestimating the resolve of Ukrainians to fight and the effectiveness of NATO-supplied weaponry. Yet Ukraine and NATO are also overestimating their capacity to defeat Russia on the battlefield. The result is a war of attrition that each side believes it will win, but that both sides will lose. Ukraine should intensify the search for a negotiated peace of the type that was on the table in late March, but which it then abandoned following evidence of Russian atrocities in Bucha – and perhaps owing to changing perceptions of its military prospects. 

The peace terms under discussion in late March called for Ukraine’s neutrality, backed by security guarantees and a timeline to address contentious issues such as the status of Crimea and the Donbas. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators stated that there was progress in the negotiations, as did the Turkish mediators. The negotiations then collapsed after the reports from Bucha, with Ukraine’s negotiator stating that, “Ukrainian society is now much more negative about any negotiation concept that concerns the Russian Federation.” 

But the case for negotiations remains urgent and overwhelming. The alternative is not Ukraine’s victory but a devastating war of attrition. To reach an agreement, both sides need to recalibrate their expectations. 

When Russia attacked Ukraine, it clearly expected a quick and easy victory. Russia vastly underestimated the upgrading of the Ukraine military following years of US, British, and other military support and training since 2014. Moreover, Russia underestimated the extent to which NATO military technology would counter Russia’s greater number of troops. No doubt, Russia’s greatest error was to assume that the Ukrainians would not fight – or perhaps even switch sides. 2

Yet now Ukraine and its Western supporters are overestimating the chances of defeating Russia on the battlefield. The idea that the Russian army is about to collapse is wishful thinking. Russia has the military capacity to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure (such as the rail lines now under attack) and to win and hold territory in the Donbas region and on the Black Sea coast. Ukrainians are fighting resolutely, but it is highly unlikely that they can force a Russian defeat. 

Nor can Western financial sanctions, which are far less sweeping and effective than the governments that imposed them acknowledge. US sanctions against Venezuela, Iran, North Korea, and others have not changed the politics of those regimes, and the sanctions against Russia are already falling far short of the hype with which they were introduced. Excluding Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system was not the “nuclear option” that many claimed. According to the International Monetary Fund, Russia’s economy will contract by around 8.5% in 2022 – bad but hardly catastrophic. 

Moreover, the sanctions are creating serious economic consequences for the United States and especially Europe. US inflation is at a 40-year high and is likely to persist because of the trillions of dollars of liquidity that had been created by the Federal Reserve in recent years. At the same time, the US and European economies are slowing, perhaps even contracting, as supply-chain disruptions proliferate. 

US President Joe Biden’s domestic political position is weak and likely to weaken further as economic difficulties mount in the coming months. Public support for the war will also likely diminish as the economy sours. The Republican Party is splitover the war, with the Trump faction not much interested in confronting Russia over Ukraine. The Democrats, too, will increasingly resent the stagflation that is likely to cost the party its majority in one or both houses of Congress in the November midterm elections. 

The adverse economic fallout from the war and sanctions regime will also reach dire proportions in dozens of developing countries that depend on food and energy imports. Economic dislocations in these countries will lead to urgent calls worldwide to end the war and sanctions regime. 

In the meantime, Ukraine continues to suffer grievously in terms of deaths, dislocation, and destruction. The IMF now forecasts a 35% contraction of Ukraine’s economy in 2022, reflecting the brutal destruction of housing, factories, rail stock, energy storage and transmission capacity, and other vital infrastructure. 

Most dangerous of all, as long as the war continues, the risk of nuclear escalation is real. If Russia’s conventional forces were actually to be pushed toward defeat, as the US is now seeking, Russia might well counter with tactical nuclear weapons. A US or Russian aircraft could be shot down by the other side as they scramble over the Black Sea, which in turn could lead to direct military conflict. Media reports that the US has covert forces on the ground, and the US intelligence community’s disclosure that it helped Ukraine kill Russian generals and sink Russia’s Black Sea flagship, underscore the danger. 

The reality of the nuclear threat means that both sides should never forgo the possibility of negotiations. That is the central lesson of the Cuban Missile Crisis, which took place 60 years ago this coming October. President John F. Kennedy saved the world then by negotiating an end to the crisis – agreeing that the US would never again invade Cuba and that the US would remove its missiles from Turkey in exchange for the withdrawal of the Soviet missiles from Cuba. That was not giving in to Soviet nuclear blackmail. That was Kennedy wisely avoiding Armageddon. 

It is still possible to establish peace in Ukraine based on the parameters that were on the table at the end of March: neutrality, security guarantees, a framework for addressing Crimea and the Donbas, and Russian withdrawal. This remains the only realistic and safe course for Ukraine, Russia, and the world. The world would rally to such an agreement, and, for its own survival and well-being, so should Ukraine.

Climate change: 'Fifty-fifty chance' of breaching 1.5C warming limit

Matt McGrath

The likelihood of crossing a key global warming threshold has risen significantly, according to a new analysis.

GETTY IMAGES I The recent heatwave in India has impacted millions of people

UK Met Office researchers say that there's now around a fifty-fifty chance that the world will warm by more than 1.5C over the next five years.

Such a rise would be temporary, but researchers are concerned about the overall direction of temperatures.

It's almost certain that 2022-2026 will see a record warmest year, they say.

The Met Office is the UK's national meteorological service.

As levels of warming gases in the atmosphere have accrued rapidly over the past three decades, global temperatures have responded by rising in step.

In 2015, the world's average temperature first went 1C above the pre-industrial levels, which are generally thought of as the temperatures recorded in the middle of the 19th century.

That was also the year that political leaders signed the Paris climate agreement, which committed the world to keeping the rise in global temperatures well below 2C while pursuing efforts keep them under 1.5C.

At COP26 in Glasgow last November, governments re-iterated their commitment to keeping "1.5C alive."

For the past seven years, global temperatures have stayed at or around that 1C mark, with 2016 and 2020 essentially tied as the warmest years on record.

VCG I Rising temperatures are linked to more extreme weather events such as these floods in China

Scientists say that with around 1C of warming the world is already experiencing significant impacts such as the unprecedented wildfires seen in North America last year, or the drastic heatwaves currently hitting India and Pakistan.

This update from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), carried out by the UK Met Office, says that the chances of temporarily going over 1.5C in one of the next five years have never been higher.

The study suggests that temperatures between 2022 and 2026 will be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than pre-industrial levels.

The Met Office researchers predict that for any one year in the period, the likelihood of breaching the 1.5C level is around 48%, or close to 50:50.

"The basic thing that's changing is that the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, are slowly creeping up," said Dr Leon Hermanson from the Met Office, the lead author of the report. 

"I think people are already quite concerned about climate change and it is worrying, it is showing that we continue to warm the planet and we're getting closer to this first threshold that was set in the Paris agreement - and we need to continue doing everything we can to cut the use of fossil fuels."

The researchers say that going over 1.5C for one year isn't the same as a sustained rise where temperatures don't fall below this figure. The likelihood is that if it is exceeded in the next five years, it will fall below 1.5C again. However there is now little room for complacency.

"For as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise," said Prof Petteri Taalas from the WMO.

"And alongside that, our oceans will continue to become warmer and more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea level will continue to rise and our weather will become more extreme," he said. 

According to the study, the Arctic region will likely feel a greater impact of warming over the next five years compared to the rest of the world. The researchers say that the difference in temperatures from the long-term average will be three times as large in these areas.

The researchers also believe that one of the coming years will likely break the 2016 and 2020 record for warmest year. 

GETTY IMAGES I At COP26 in Glasgow, political leaders reaffirmed their commitment to keep warming under 1.5C

That will happen, most likely in an El Niño year.

That's a natural, meteorological phenomenon associated with an unusual warming of the surface waters of the eastern Pacific ocean that can impact weather all over the world.

"The year we do exceed 1.5 degrees temporarily will probably be an El Niño year," said Dr Hermanson from the Met Office.

"It's on top of climate change, kind of like the wiggles on top of the trend, if you like, and the next record year will probably be an El Niño year, like 2016 was."

Crucial tropical forests were destroyed at a rate of 10 soccer fields a minute last year

Angela Dewan

A boat speeding on the Jurura river in the heart of the Brazilian Amazon Forest on March 15, 2020. The greatest tropical forest lost last year was in Brazil.

(CNN)The area of tropical forest destroyed in 2021 was enough to cover the entire island of Cuba, and sent more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as India does in an entire year from burning fossil fuels, according to an analysis published Thursday.

Some 11.1 million hectares (around 43,000 square miles) of forest was destroyed, predominantly by logging as well as fires, the analysis by the World Resources Institute's Global Forest Watch and the University of Maryland found. Some of those fires were deliberately lit to clear land and many were exacerbated by climate change.

Tropical primary forest loss

The loss was less severe than in 2020, but deforestation is still occurring at an alarming rate in the tropics. Of the area lost, 3.75 million hectares were primary tropical forest -- sometimes called virgin rainforest -- at the equivalent of 10 soccer fields every minute, WRI reported.

Primary tropical forests in particular are crucial for the ecological balance of the planet, providing oxygen that supports life and as biodiversity hotspots.

They are also rich in stored carbon, and when these forests are logged or burned, they release carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere, contributing to global warming. The destruction of primary tropical forest loss alone emitted 2.5 gigatons of CO2 last year, comparable to emissions from fossil fuel burning in India, which is the world's third-biggest greenhouse gas emitter.

"What's important to understand is that forests, especially tropical forests, are part of the global climate system," WRI senior fellow Frances Seymour told CNN. "So they're not mechanical carbon storage devices, they actually influence the energy transfer and the moisture content of the atmosphere in ways that affect rainfall, that affect global circulation patterns."

Fires are also playing an increasingly larger role in the tropical forest loss. Seymour said that there is a compounding effect between deforestation and climate change.

"When deforestation happens, when forests are lost, it not only contributes carbon to the atmosphere, but also disrupts rainfall patterns and increases local temperatures in ways that, for example, make remaining forests more vulnerable to fire, and the warmer, drier conditions that come with climate change," Seymour said.

The analysis looked primarily at tropical forests -- which can be found in countries from Brazil to Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) -- because more than 96% of deforestation, or human-caused removal of forest cover, occurs there.

The findings were based on satellite imagery that assessed how tree cover changed over time. A loss of tree cover, or canopy, in the tropics often means forest has been destroyed. In other countries, where logging is less common, it can mean that the tops of trees are destroyed, such as in the case of fire, but the forest remains otherwise intact

Nonetheless, Boreal forests -- which are found in particularly cold climates, including in Russia, Canada and Alaska -- experienced their highest loss of tree cover on record last year. More than 8 million hectares were lost, an increase of nearly a third from 2020.

That's largely because Russia experienced particularly severe fires, losing 6.5 million hectares of tree cover.

These fires can cause what scientists call feedback loops, "in which increasing fires lead to more carbon emissions, which leads to hotter, drier weather, which leads to more fires, and so on," the analysis says.

In the tropics, more than 40% of forest loss last year occurred in Brazil. Around 1.5 million hectares of forest in the country was wiped off the map, mostly from the Amazon. That's more than three times the DRC, which lost the second-largest amount of forest.

If Amazon reaches tipping point, climate goals 'blown out of the water'

In Brazil, a major driver for deforestation is agricultural expansion, which increased by 9% between 2020 and 2021.

The WRI analysis warns that forest loss is pushing the Amazon toward a tipping point, where it will no longer be able to serve as one of the world's most important carbon sinks and could even become a net emitter of CO2. The Amazon is the world's largest rainforest, and it plays a crucial role in biodiversity, regulating the climate, and providing ecosystem services to millions of people who live there.

If that tipping point is passed, the world's attempts to contain global warming to 1.5-2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels -- as laid out in the 2015 Paris Agreement -- would be "blown out of the water," Seymour said.

Brazil primary forest loss hotspots

Amid its sobering findings, the analysis gave some reason for optimism. Indonesia and Malaysia, which had for decades battled rampant deforestation, have both seen a reduction in the amount of tree cover it loses annually for five years in a row. In Indonesia, the amount of forest lost fell by 25% last year.

This is a sign that corporate commitments and government actions are working, according to Hidayah Hamzah, Forest and Peat Monitoring Senior Manager from WRI in Indonesia.

"This indicates that corporate commitments and government actions are clearly working," she told journalists at a briefing. "Indonesia is heading in the right direction to meet some of its climate commitments."

Malaysia, however, has already lost one-fifth of its primary tropical forest since 2001 and up to a third since the 1970s.

Hamzah added that the Indonesia's success was due in part to the government's moratorium on logging licenses for primary forests and peatland, as well as improved fire monitoring. A policycalled NDPE -- No Deforestation, No Peatland, No Exploitation -- now covers more than 80% of palm oil refining capacity in Indonesia and Malaysia, which are the world's biggest exporters of the oil, and over 80% of the pulp and paper industry in Indonesia.

But WRI warns too that as palm oil prices hit a 40-year high, these countries' forests could come under increasing pressure. Indonesia also lifted a temporary freeze on new permits for palm oil plantations.

While there was an overall reduction in tree cover loss last year, the annual improvement is not consistent enough to meet global commitments, including a declaration signed by more that 140 countries at climate talks in Glasgow last year to "halt and reverse forest loss by 2030."

Seymour also warned against relying too much on forests to offset greenhouse gas emissions, saying companies and countries should be using them to go above and beyond decarbonization efforts -- by dramatically reducing fossil fuel use -- or to offset emissions that are impossible to cut with current technology.

The airline industry is one example, as technology to fly carbon-free does not exist yet at scale.

"So, yes, we want them to be reducing those emissions as quickly as possible and investing in new technologies that will allow flights without carbon, but in the meantime, they are 'unabated' emissions," she said. "And compensating those with purchase of carbon credits can can provide a source of finance that we desperately need to incentivize the protection of the world's forests."

Ocean life projected to die off in mass extinction if emissions remain high

Evan Bush

Marine animals could die at levels rivaling the biggest mass extinctions in history, a study found, if seas become too warm and hold too little oxygen.

A green sea turtle swimming over coral reef in Indonesia.Georgette Douwma / Getty Images

Marine animals could die off at a level rivaling the biggest mass extinctions in geologic history if people don’t curb greenhouse gas emissions. 

That’s the takeaway from a study published Thursday in the journal Science, which found that many ocean creatures could face conditions too warm and with too little oxygen to survive if we don't turn things around. The more warming, the fewer species are likely to survive, the results show. 

The new analysis applies what the research team previously learned about the "Great Dying" 252 million years ago — when more than two-thirds of all marine life in the Permian Period went extinct — as well as other historic extinctions to today’s climate projections. Under a high emissions scenario, the results were disturbing. 

"If we don’t act to curb emissions, that extinction is quite high. It registers on the geological scale among the major biotic collapses of diversity in the Earth’s history," said Curtis Deutsch, an author of the paper and a professor of geosciences at Princeton University.

The new models suggest Earth could approach Permian levels of marine extinction by 2300 if emissions continue to increase. As temperatures rise, according to the research, species richness will decline near the tropics, with some animals migrating toward higher latitudes. Polar species are most at risk, as their habitat becomes a "disappearing climate niche," the paper explains. 

But that fate is far from sealed. If emissions stay near the levels world leaders set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, marine animals would fare far better, the study says.

"Extinctions are largely avoided" under that scenario, said Justin Penn, a postdoctoral researcher at Princeton who co-authored the study. 

Still, the analysis is a reminder that the pace of change on Earth today may be comparable to the most extreme events in history. 

"In the next few decades, we're determining if we’re really going to go deep into a mass extinction again — because of us, because of what we’re doing," said Eric Galbraith, a professor at McGill University studying human and Earth system dynamics, who was not involved in the new study. "It’s hard to wrap our heads around the importance of what we choose to do as a species in the coming decades."

Previous work from the team behind the new analysis revealed runaway global warming and a loss of oxygen in the ocean to be the causes of the Great Dying. Their model’s results matched patterns paleontologists had observed in Permian fossil records, giving it credibility. 

The revelation that extreme changes to the climate were the likely causes "was a real eureka moment," Deutsch said. 

Before that die-off, there was only one landmass — Pangea —  and the Permian ocean teemed with marine creatures. Scientists think these animals had similar traits, like metabolisms and oxygen needs, as those today. 

Scientists knew from prior studies of fossilized teeth that surface temperatures during this period soared about 10 degrees Celsius in the tropics, leading many sea animals to go extinct. The researchers suspected volcanic eruptions triggered the changes, so they modeled those conditions.

The results showed that many species were pushed past their physiological limits.  

As the climate warmed, animals needed more oxygen to perform bodily functions like breathing. But warmer water doesn’t contain as much dissolved oxygen — which made it more difficult for species to survive.

"Imagine facing inflation while your hours are also being cut or your salary is going down," Deutsch said. "The ocean is giving less oxygen to organisms in spite of the fact they have this inflationary need." 

A similar process is happening now, Penn said: "The Permian event was caused by climate warming and ocean oxygen loss — two environmental changes underway today."

The question driving Deutsch and his colleagues’ latest research was "how much of the same phenomenon would manifest" in Earth’s future.

They found stark differences depending on how much warming takes place. Extinctions grow at a linear rate in the model as temperatures increase, Deutsch said. 

"There’s a strong sentiment out there, probably among some of your readers and viewers: 'It's too late or the window is closed,'" he said. "That’s not what our results show." 

Currently, the world’s average surface temperatures are on pace to rise roughly 3.2 degrees Celsius (5.8 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century relative to preindustrial times. But limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius — a goal agreed to in the Paris accord — would lower the severity of extinctions by more than 70 percent, the paper found. 

"There’s still time to conserve the diversity that evolution has gradually built up in the ocean," Deutsch said. 

However, if emissions continue to increase, nations remain divided on climate goals and temperatures soar by nearly 5 degrees Celsius by century’s end, marine biodiversity would start to trend toward rates observed in previous mass extinctions.

Galbraith said the research relied on "mature" models, with conclusions based on simple, "reliable" equations.

"I hope this is a fairy tale — these terrible impacts on the marine ecosystem," he said. "It's just a question of building new infrastructure that gets us off fossil fuel infrastructure. We should be able to do that in the next couple decades." 

Galbraith added that the future of ocean life also depends on addressing other harmful human activity, such as intensive fishing or pollution, that could cause cascading effects in combination with climate change. 

“This is really just looking at one dimension of pressure,” he said. 

Sir David Attenborough named Champion of the Earth by UN

Sir David Attenborough has been named a Champion of the Earth by the UN's Environment Programme.

The prestigious award recognises the 95-year-old's commitment to telling stories about the natural world and climate change.

Accepting the award, Sir David said the world must take action now to protect nature and the planet.

His celebrated documentaries include The Green Planet and A Plastic Ocean.

Sir David said that environmental success stories should give us hope that change is possible.

"Fifty years ago, whales were on the very edge of extinction worldwide. Then people got together and now there are more whales in the sea than any living human being has ever seen," he suggested.

"We know what the problems are and we know how to solve them. All we lack is unified action."

UNEP Executive Director Inger Anderson said that the UN chose to recognise Sir David because of his devotion to broadcasting the natural world.

Image caption, The story of saving whales should give us hope that change is possible, Sir David says

"If we stand a chance of averting climate and biodiversity breakdowns and cleaning up polluted ecosystems, it's because millions of us fell in love with the planet that he captured on film and writing, in his voice," said Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director. 

Sir David began working on natural history programmes in the 1950s, and his programmes filmed in far-flung parts of the world became immensely popular. In the past four years, his warnings about the damage that climate change is causing the planet and humans have become more stark.

Sir David is particularly popular with children and teenagers worried about climate change. Teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg has said that meeting the broadcaster was "indescribable" and that everyone should strive to be like him. 

Asked about Sir David, children visiting the London aquarium told BBC News they love watching him on TV and even have books about him. 

"He does loads of things to support our planet and the animals. On his show, he tells us the natural world might be in danger if we don't make a difference," explains 10-year-old Raya.

She worries about the planet, saying she's learned that "we need to stop using plastic, start using more electric cars, and we should plant more trees instead of cutting them down."

Benjamin, 13, said watching Sir David's programmes has inspired him to become a marine biologist. But they've also taught him about the danger we face from climate change and biodiversity loss.

"I want to be able to have a family and I want them to live a nice world. But if we start trying very hard, we can save the natural world," he explained.

Sir David's emphasis on success stories like bringing back whales from the point of extinction is important, Prof Rick Stafford, marine biologist at Bournemouth university, told BBC News.

"He really brought climate change and biodiversity loss to the forefront. Optimism is important but the major problems to be solved are not scientific - they are economic and political," he explained.

Asia is home to some of climate change’s biggest culprits and victims

Chelsea Ong

• Asia, one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change, is also home to the biggest contributors of global warming.

• In 2021, over 57 million people were affected by climate disasters in the region — and the risk Asia faces is only going to grow.

• Asia plays a crucial role in global efforts to decarbonize because it accounts for almost half of global greenhouse gas emissions, but the region presents an uneven picture.

Asia, one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change, is also home to the biggest contributors of global warming.

In 2021, over 57 million people were affected by climate disasters in the region, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies reported.

And the risk Asia faces is only going to grow.

In a worst-case scenario, by 2050, a substantial majority of people living in areas with a probability of lethal deadly waves will be in Asia, according to a 2020 report by McKinsey Global Institute.

The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a highly anticipated report on Monday, stating that current efforts to tackle climate change are simply not enough.

“It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C,” IPCC Working Group III co-chair Jim Skea said. “Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.”

And yet, efforts to mitigate that risk haven’t been adequate on several fronts — especially when it comes to China and India, two of the top three contributors to global emissions in addition to the U.S.

Asia plays a crucial role in global efforts to decarbonize because it accounts for almost half of global greenhouse gas emissions. However, the region presents an uneven picture, with culpability and vulnerability varying significantly with each country.

China and India

At the U.N. COP26 summit last year, China and India weakened their pledge to “phase out” coal. Instead, they proposed to “phase down” the leading source of climate change.

As the climate crisis intensifies, such moves are setting off alarm bells. The IPCC reiterated in February that incremental and reactive changes are no longer enough — a view scientists have echoed.

In 2019, China’s greenhouse gas emissions exceeded that of the whole developed world for the first time, according to a 2021 report by research and consulting firm Rhodium Group.

Dimitri de Boer, chief representative of ClientEarth China, an environmental charity, acknowledged that China has stepped up efforts to fight climate change — by pledging to stop building coal power plants overseas, and supporting other countries in developing renewable energy systems.

However, he noted that the Chinese economy continues to be heavily reliant on coal, which may impede its progress.

Similarly, Gabriel Lau, professor emeritus at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, also recognized the progress China has made. But he said more attention must be given to renewable energy resources, more widespread conservation measures, and educating the public.

India, for its part, is expected to see the largest increase in energy demand globally over the next 20 years. And none of the country’s cities met the World Health Organization air quality guidelines, according to a report by IQAir, a Swiss air quality technology firm.

“Setting a deadline 50 years away is by no means a cop-out — we don’t have that option anymore.”

— Avinash Kumar (GREENPEACE INDIA)

While India’s net-zero emission target by 2070 is in the right direction, the country still needs “rigour, good practice and equity” to achieve its targets, Avinash Kumar, climate campaign manager at Greenpeace India, a non-profit organization told CNBC in an email.

On top of government incentives, the country’s energy transition must also be driven by big industries, he added.

“Setting a deadline 50 years away is by no means a cop-out — we don’t have that option anymore,” he said. “It cannot be business as usual with new fossil fuel projects, open-cast mines and dilution of environmental laws.”

Asia’s developing countries

Many of Asia’s most vulnerable countries, however, lie elsewhere.

“There isn’t necessarily one Asia — we have many different parts of Asia ... that are all quite different in their economic structures, their degree of integration, and with that, their exposure to climate change,” said Jonathan Woetzel, director of McKinsey Global Institute.

Southeast Asia, for example, has sea levels rising faster than any other part of the world and bears the brunt of many climate hazards. That’s in part because the region is home to a significant number of low-lying countries with lower levels of per capita GDP, such as Cambodia and Myanmar.

Though every country in Southeast Asia signed the Paris Climate Agreement, most have few strategies to prevent the most severe climate risks.

If climate change is left unchecked, Southeast Asia’s economy could shrink by 11% by the end of the century, according to the Asian Development Bank.

“Developing nations in Asia [will] need to invest more than the global average, as a share of GDP, to secure low-emissions growth and to decarbonize,” said McKinsey’s Woetzel.

He noted that large shares of these economies are in industries with high emissions or are dependent on fossil fuels.

However, these developing regions may face challenges such as lack access to capital markets, and owning young high-emissions assets, he said.

“People are losing their lives to floods, heatwaves, droughts, cloudbursts and more. They cannot wait for another 50 years to see real climate action on the ground.”

— Avinash Kumar (CLIMATE CAMPAIGN MANAGER, GREENPEACE INDIA)

Kumar of Greenpeace India pointed out that developed countries will need to assume greater financial accountability. 

“The $100 billion commitment promised by rich countries to developing countries back in 2009 is yet to be delivered,” Kumar said. “At the current state, developing countries are far too short of the funds needed for climate mitigation.”

What the future holds

Despite Asia’s efforts thus far, climate model simulations indicate it will still be difficult to limit global warming to below 1.5°C even if targets are met, said Lau.

Still, integrating climate policies into national development plans is of “immediate importance” to mitigate harmful effects of rising temperatures, said the U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.

Kumar warned that the next 10 years will be crucial, and stricter plans to halve emissions by 2030 need to be made in COP27, the next UN climate summit.

“People are losing their lives to floods, heatwaves, droughts, cloudbursts and more,” he added. “They cannot wait for another 50 years to see real climate action on the ground.”

Wildflower believed to be extinct for 40 years spotted in Ecuador

Safi Bugel

A South American wildflower long believed to be extinct has been rediscovered.

The Gasteranthus extinctus has an underside pouch where pollinators can enter and exit.Photograph: Riley Fortier

Gasteranthus extinctus was found by biologists in the foothills of the Andes mountains and in remnant patches of forest in the Centinela region of Ecuador, almost 40 years after its last sighting.

Extensive deforestation in western Ecuador during the late 20th century led to the presumed extinction of a number of plant species, including Gasteranthus extinctus – the reason scientists gave it that name.

Despite reports that more than 97% of forests in the western half of Ecuador have been destroyed or converted to farmland, including most of the Centinela Ridge, the researchers began searching last summer, starting by scouring satellite images to identify intact primary rainforest.

“Centinela is a mythical place for tropical botanists,” said Nigel CA Pitman, one of the researchers behind the discovery. “But because it was described by the top people in the field, no one really double checked the science. No one went back to confirm that the forest was gone and those things were extinct.

“We walked into Centinela thinking it was going to break our heart and instead we ended up falling in love.”

The tropical wildflower is characterised by its neon-orange petals and big underside pouch, where pollinators can enter and exit.

The researchers identified the plant within the first few hours of searching, using only images of dried herbarium specimens, line drawings and a written description for reference.

Careful to not harm the rare remaining plants, they took photos and collected some fallen flowers before receiving confirmation of its identity from a taxonomic expert.

Despite its endangered status, Gasteranthus extinctus will keep its name.

The research group is now working with Ecuadorian conservationists to protect some of the remaining fragments where the Centinelan flowers live.

“Rediscovering this flower shows that it’s not too late to turn around even the worst-case biodiversity scenarios, and it shows that there’s value in conserving even the smallest, most degraded areas,” said Dawson White, a postdoctoral researcher at the Field Museum in Chicago and joint lead author of the paper published in the PhytoKeys journal.

“New species are still being found, and we can still save many things that are on the brink of extinction.”

WHO welcomes initiative to combat noncommunicable diseases, responsible for 7 in 10 deaths worldwide

UN NEWS

WHO/Ernest Ankomah I A two-year old girl with cancer gets her vitals taken by a nurse at a hospital in Ghana.

The decision was taken at the inaugural International Strategic Dialogue on Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) and the SDGs, held in Accra, Ghana, where a new Global Compact on NCDs was launched. The dialogue was co-hosted by WHO, together with Ghana and Norway. 

National leaders highlighted the urgency of what WHO refers to as the NCD pandemic, which kills 7 out of 10 people globally from risk factors like tobacco, alcohol, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, and air pollution. 

Close to 7 million lives could be saved from deaths from diseases like diabetes, cancer, heart & lung disease for just US$0.84/person/year from now until 2030.
WHO, #Ghana & #Norway agree to accelerate actions to save lives from noncommunicable diseases https://t.co/OLVnJIx5mB pic.twitter.com/fxp5sbumvr

— World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) April 12, 2022

7 million lives saved, at low cost

NCDs are largely preventable and treatable, nearly seven million lives could be saved for just US$ 0.84 per person per year from now until 2030, says the UN health agency.

This investment would realize more than $230 billion in economic and societal benefits and head off nearly 10 million heart attacks and strokes globally, by 2030. 

The group will now convene annually at the UN General Assembly, with the first meeting expected to take place in September 2022. 

The Compact will focus on five key areas: 

1) Saving the lives of 50 million people by 2030, who could die prematurely of NCDs by implementing the most cost-effective prevention measures.

2) Protecting 1.7 billion people living with NCDs by ensuring that they have access to the medicines and care they need during emergencies.

3) Integrating NCDs within primary health care and universal health coverage.

4) Comprehensive NCD surveillance and monitoring.

5)And finally, meaningfully engaging 1.7 billion people living with NCDs and mental health conditions in policy-making and programming.

Nana Addo Dankwa Afuko-Addo, President of Ghana, outlined his country’s success in implementing tobacco demand-reduction measures and introducing guidelines for NCD management, but also highlighted the challenges for lower-income countries in accelerating action.

“Tackling the phenomenon of NCDs requires leadership to provide visibility to NCD issues”, he said. “I ask my Heads of State colleagues to join hands…as we find solutions to NCDs with a roadmap of universal health coverage and the Sustainable Development Goals. In our time, this will be our legacy”.

Lives cut short

WHO chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said that apart from the death toll, “NCDs take a heavy toll on economies, cutting down people in their most productive years. Overcoming this challenge requires technical, financial, and above all, political commitment. I thank the Governments of Norway and Ghana for establishing the first Global Heads of State and Government Group on NCDs, and launching the Global NCD Compact”.

Norway’s Prime Minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, Prime Minister of Norway, said investing in stronger health systems, service delivery and the prevention of NCDs would make vulnerable populations more resilient to COVID-19 and future pandemics.

“This is also vital for promoting universal health coverage. NCD prevention, and access to treatment and medicine must be a core component in the efforts to enhance pandemic preparedness and response, and in building back better in the post-pandemic recovery." 

And Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa, told the meeting that NCDs account for nearly a third of all deaths in Africa, “where they not only pose a grave threat to health and well-being, but also blunt socioeconomic development. The commitment reached today marks a crucial step in speeding up the progress against these diseases and their risk factors as well as the suffering and deaths they cause.”

Sunscreen chemicals accumulating in Mediterranean seagrass, finds study

Safi Bugel

Posidonia oceanica segrass meadows in the calanques in the Mediterranean Sea near Marseille, southern France. Photograph: Boris Horvat/AFP/Getty Images

Chemicals found in sunscreen lotions are accumulating in Mediterranean seagrass, a study has found.

Scientists discovered ultraviolet filters in the stems of Posidonia oceanica, a seagrass species found on the coast of Mallorca and endemic to the Mediterranean Sea.

The researchers believe the contamination is the result of recreational activities and waste discharges in the tourist destination.

“This marine enclave is impacted by port activities, water discharge and tourism,” said Dr Silvia Díaz Cruz, co-author of the study published in Marine Pollution Bulletin. “Since the Mediterranean Sea is shallow, small and very enclosed, concentrations of UV-absorbing chemicals can reach high [levels].”

Samples found varying concentrations of sunscreen components, including oxybenzone, avobenzone 4-methyl, benzylidene camphor, benzophenone-4 and methyl parabens.

While the full impact of these chemicals on seagrass remains unknown, the researchers are concerned about potential harmful effects.

“If we find that sunscreens affect the photosynthesis and productivity of seagrasses beyond accumulation, we will have a problem since these seagrasses play important ecological roles in the Mediterranean coasts,” said co-author Prof Nona Agawin.

Posidonia oceanica forms extensive meadows in the coastal Mediterranean and plays a crucial role in maintaining a healthy ocean ecosystem. Seagrass meadows are home to diverse marine species and act as carbon stores, while also helping buffer coastal areas against erosion. 

Previous research has found that certain UV-filtering sunscreen chemicals can have damaging effects on fish, turtles and dolphins, including disrupting their reproductive systems and harming their development.

Coral reefs are also affected and these chemicals have been prohibited in tourism destinations such as Hawaii, Florida and Palau. Similar legislation has yet to be introduced in Mediterranean countries.

The researchers emphasise the need for further research on the effects of UV-filtering chemicals in seagrass meadows. “If we find which sunscreen components are harmful for seagrasses, then we should better regulate and provide alternatives to protect the beach-goers and also the seagrasses,” said Agawin. 

War in Ukraine is scrambling the world's ability to fight climate change

Alicia Wallace

The war in Ukraine has thrown the global economy into chaos -- and the worst is yet to come, experts say. 

The conflict has disrupted logistics, business operations and trade pipelines across the world: sea, land and air freight are taking roundabout routes to avoid no-fly zones and hazards of war; multinational companies are abandoning operations because of sanctions and pressure to sever ties; and countries are scrambling to meet near-term energy needs — in some cases doubling down on coal — in their efforts to reduce dependency on Russian exports.

"Everything is coming to roost," said Alla Valente, senior analyst on Forrester Research's security and risk team.

"It's not just logistics time, it's not just the cost of oil or how much oil is being used, it's not just waiting to get our shipment of semiconductor chips, it's not just the transportation labor shortage," she said. "It's not any one of those things, it's all of those things."

Dysfunction in supply chains and energy will lead to even higher costs for consumers, businesses, governments -- and, ultimately, the environment, experts say.

"War is an energy-intensive business," said Nikos Tsafos, an energy and geopolitics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It takes energy to move things around, to move troops and equipment."

Gascade Gastransport's natural gas compressor station, seen here on March 29, 2022, in Mallnow, Germany, near the Polish border, mainly receives Russian natural gas. From its source to its point of use, the natural gas travels several thousand kilometers in the "Jagal" pipeline.

Already, global oil prices have risen to their highest levels in nearly a decade, driving up costs for everything from food to fertilizer.

"Steeper price increases for food and fuel may spur a greater risk of unrest in some regions," the International Monetary Fund warned last month. "Longer term, the war may fundamentally alter the global economic and geopolitical order should energy trade shift, supply chains reconfigure, payment networks fragment, and countries rethink reserve currency holdings."

A retreat from Russian oil and gas

Those shifts are already happening as countries around the world seek to reduce their reliance on Russian oil, gas and other commodities.

The US has banned all Russian oil, natural gas and coal imports, and the United Kingdom has laid out a plan to phase out Russian oil imports by the end of the year and eventually put an end to natural gas imports as well.

The European Union, meanwhile, has said it would impose a fifth round of sanctions on Russia, including an import ban on Russian coal, though it has stopped short of banning Russian oil.

Europe imports about 40% of its natural gas from Russia, and has laid out a plan to reduce Russian natural gas imports by 66% this year.

"We must become independent from Russian oil, coal and gas," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement last month. "We simply cannot rely on a supplier who explicitly threatens us."

Russia's actions "will have enormous economic repercussions for the world," US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in annual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. In addition to creating global food insecurity and debt burdens, "we are witnessing the vulnerability that comes from relying on one fuel source or one trade partner, which is why it is imperative to diversify energy sources and suppliers," she said.

Energy security vs. climate strategy 

In the immediate term, EU countries are forced to explore a variety of means for keeping energy flowing and their citizens warm during the winter, Tsafos said.

And that very well could include the use of more coal. Countries that previously viewed natural gas as a stepping stone in energy transition plans are now considering burning coal for longer than planned, said Frans Timmermans, who is spearheading the EU's Green Deal efforts. However, Timmermans cautioned that such a move should only be used as a stopgap and that a rapid acceleration toward renewable energy should follow.

To help fill the gaps, the US has also shifted some of its liquified natural gas exports to Europe, said Tsafos. And the Biden Administration has reportedly weighed exemptions to a recent ban on financing fossil fuel projects overseas, Reuters reported.

"I think the overarching objective of Europeans is to do things that don't undermine their climate strategy, so they would like to not use more coal unless they have to," Tsafos said, noting the European Union's goals of being climate-neutral by 2050 and reducing greenhouse gas emissions 55% by 2030. "But so far, what their strategy boils down to is to try to buy whatever gas they can find, and I think the risk of that, is this could put a lot of stress on the gas market."

Near-term energy security efforts aside, the current crisis will likely spur Europe and others to accelerate their climate plans, wean themselves off fossil fuels and invest more in renewable energy technologies, said Ryan Kellogg, a University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy professor who specializes in energy economics, environmental policy and industrial organization.

"All of that takes time. It's not really going to help with the acute high prices and the pain that consumers are feeling now," he said. "Where it does help is when the next crisis hits."

CNN Business' Mark Thompson contributed to this report.

Brazil's Amazon rainforest has already reached a new deforestation record this year

Camilo Rocha and Stefano Pozzebon, CNN and Reuters

The portion of Amazon rainforest impacted by deforestation in the first three months of 2022 was the highest ever recorded, according to a new report by Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE).

Smoke rises from a fire in the Amazon rainforest in Ruropolis, Brazil on November 29, 2019.

According to the INPE report, published Friday, 941.34 square kilometers (363 square miles) of forest were cleared between January and March this year. That's the largest amount recorded since the institute began monitoring deforestation rates in 2016. The area cleared is nearly the size of Dallas, Texas.

Researchers observed a 64% increase from the same time period last year, when 573.29 square kilometers (221 square miles) were cleared.

Destruction of the world's largest rainforest has surged since President Jair Bolsonaro took office in 2019 and weakened environmental protections, arguing that they hinder economic development that could reduce poverty in the Amazon region.

The president's office and the Environment Ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

A UN climate panel report on Monday warned that governments are not doing enough to rein in greenhouse gas emissions in order to avert the worst effects of global warming. While fossil fuel use is mostly to blame, deforestation accounts for about 10% of global emissions, according to the report.

"Brazil is an example of what the UN climate report is saying when referring to governments not taking the necessary actions," said Cristiane Mazzetti, a forest campaigner in Brazil for environmental advocacy group Greenpeace.

"We have a government that goes deliberately against the necessary steps to limit climate change."

Some scientists predict deforestation will continue to rise ahead of Brazil's October presidential election, as it has ahead of the last three elections.

Environmental enforcement typically weakens in election years and criminals may rush to deforest ahead of a new government taking office, according to Carlos Souza Jr, a researcher at Imazon, a Brazilian research institution.

On Thursday, Facebook's parent company Meta announced that it had removed 14 Facebook accounts, nine Facebook pages, and 39 Instagram accounts for posting fake information related to deforestation.

"This network originated in Brazil and targeted domestic audiences in that country," Meta said in its first quarterly "Adversarial Threat Report."

Meta's report says it found "links to individuals associated with the Brazilian Military" behind the accounts.

The accounts were engaged in "coordinated inauthentic behavior," which included posting content that argued not all deforestation was harmful, and which criticized "legitimate environmental NGOs who spoke out against deforestation in the Amazon," the Meta report says.

CNN has reached out to Brazil's Defense Ministry for comment.

World Health Day: Take climate action, take care of each other

UN NEWS

© WHO/Yoshi Shimizu I A health worker conducts mosquito sampling and surveillance in a community in Vientiane, Lao PDR.

In its call-to-action, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a shocking report on Monday, noting that 99 per cent of people breathe unhealthy air – mainly resulting from the burning of fossil fuels.

“The climate crisis is a health crisis: The same unsustainable choices that are killing our planet are killing people,” said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

Health and social crises 

The UN health agency warned that the steadily heating world is seeing mosquito-borne diseases spreading farther and faster, than ever before.

And extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, land degradation and water scarcity, are displacing people and affecting health, while pollution and plastics found at the bottom of the world’s deepest oceans and highest mountains, are increasingly making their way into food chains and blood streams.

Moreover, systems that produce highly processed, unhealthy foods and beverages, are driving a wave of obesity, increasing cancer and heart disease while generating up to a third of global greenhouse gas emissions.

These health and social crises are compromising people’s ability to take control over their health and lives, according to WHO.

The COVID factor

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted fault lines of inequity across the world, underlining the urgency of creating sustainable and healthy societies which do not breach ecological limits.

We need to ensure that all people have access to lifesaving and life-enhancing tools, systems, policies and environments, said the agency.

WHO’s Manifesto for a healthy and green recovery from the pandemic prescribes protecting and preserving nature as the primary source of human health.

It advocates for investing in essential services - from water and sanitation to clean energy in healthcare facilities - ensuring a quick and healthy energy transition; promoting healthy and sustainable food systems; building healthy and liveable cities; and stopping taxpayers’ money from funding pollution.

And the Geneva Charter for well-being, highlights what global commitments are needed to achieve equitable health and social outcomes now and for future generations, without destroying the health of our planet. 

Sustainable living

At a time of heightened conflict and fragility, WHO is marking its founding day by launching the Our Planet, Our Health campaign, which re-imagines and re-prioritizes resources to create healthier societies.

“We need transformative solutions to wean the world off its addiction to fossil fuels, to reimagine economies and societies focused on well-being, and to safeguard the health of the planet on which human health depends,” Tedros underscored.

Through its World Health Day campaign, WHO is calling on governments, organizations, corporations, and citizens to share actions they are taking to protect the planet and human health. 

WHO says 99 percent of world’s population breathes poor-quality air

The Associated Press

Particulate matter has many sources, such as transportation, power plants, agriculture, the burning of waste and industry — as well as from natural sources like desert dust.

A child plays with a ball through amid dense smog in Kolkata, India, on Dec. 15, 2021.Indranil Aditya / Nur Photo via AP file

The U.N. health agency says nearly everybody in the world breathes air that doesn’t meet its standards for air quality, calling for more action to reduce fossil-fuel use, which generates pollutants that cause respiratory and blood-flow problems and lead to millions of preventable deaths each year.

The World Health Organization, about six months after tightening its guidelines on air quality, on Monday issued an update to its database on air quality that draws on information from a growing number of cities, towns, and villages across the globe — now totaling over 6,000 municipalities.

WHO said 99 percent of the global population breathes air that exceeds its air-quality limits and is often rife with particles that can penetrate deep into the lungs, enter the veins and arteries, and cause disease. Air quality is poorest in WHO’s Eastern Mediterranean and Southeast Asia regions, followed by Africa, it said.

“After surviving a pandemic, it is unacceptable to still have 7 million preventable deaths and countless preventable lost years of good health due to air pollution,” said Dr. Maria Neira, head of WHO’s department of environment, climate change and health. “Yet too many investments are still being sunk into a polluted environment rather than in clean, healthy air.”

The database, which has traditionally considered two types of particulate matter known as PM2.5 and PM10, for the first time has included ground measurements of nitrogen dioxide. The last version of the database was issued in 2018.

Nitrogen dioxide originates mainly from human-generated burning of fuel, such as through automobile traffic, and is most common in urban areas. Exposure can bring respiratory disease like asthma and symptoms like coughing, wheezing and difficulty in breathing, and more hospital and emergency-room admissions, WHO said. The highest concentrations were found in the eastern Mediterranean region.

Particulate matter has many sources, such as transportation, power plants, agriculture, the burning of waste and industry — as well as from natural sources like desert dust. The developing world is particularly hard hit: India had high levels of PM10, while China showed high levels of PM2.5, the database showed.

“Particulate matter, especially PM2.5, is capable of penetrating deep into the lungs and entering the bloodstream, causing cardiovascular, cerebrovascular (stroke) and respiratory impacts,” WHO said. “There is emerging evidence that particulate matter impacts other organs and causes other diseases as well.”

The findings highlight the sheer scale of the changes needed to combat air pollution, said Anumita Roychowdhury, an air pollution expert at Center for Science and Environment, a research and advocacy organization in New Delhi.

India and the world need to brace for major changes to try to curb air pollution: electric vehicles; a shift away from fossil fuels; a massive scaling-up of green energy; and households separating their types of waste, she said.

The Council on Energy, Environment and Water, a New Delhi-based think tank, found in a study that more than 60 percent of India’s PM2.5 loads are from households and industries.

Tanushree Ganguly, who heads the council’s program on air quality, called for action toward reducing emissions from industries, automobiles, biomass burning and domestic energy.

“We need to prioritize clean energy access for households that need it the most, and take active measures to clean up our industrial sector,” she said.

U.N. report outlines possible solutions for climate change and its societal impact

Evan Bush

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres chided global leaders in a searing critique, saying the new report highlighted “a litany of broken climate promises.”

From wildfires to sea level rise and heat waves, climate change is having a dramatic impact on the environment and people’s health and well-being. 

So what can the world do about it? 

That’s the focus of the third and final report — released Monday — from a recent cycle of climate discussions among scientists with the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. More than 230 authors contributed to the report, which summarizes researchers’ best thinking on how to reduce emissions of the greenhouse gases that are causing climate change. 

Previous reports detailed the physical changes the world is experiencing because of climate change and how they are already affecting society. 

In a news conference about the report’s findings, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres chided global leaders in a searing critique, saying the new report highlighted “a litany of broken climate promises” and a catalog of “shame” showing the world is on the wrong track. 

“Government and business leaders are saying one thing and doing another. Simply put, they are lying,” he said. 

Still, the latest report strikes a somewhat hopeful tone about energy transition and suggests achievable solutions are in hand.  

Renewable energy costs are plummeting and investment in electric vehicles has provided a vision of the path forward, the scientists suggest.  

“We are at a crossroads. This is the time for action. We have the tools and know-how required to limit warming and secure a liveable future” IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee said during the news conference announcing the report. 

But the stakes have never been greater.

“Unless there are immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, limiting warming to 1.5 degrees [Celsius] will be beyond reach,” said Jim Skea, a professor of sustainable energy at Imperial College London and one of the report’s co-chairs. “Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.” 

Here are five key takeaways from the report’s summary.  

The electrification of transportation is a good sign

Transportation represented about 15 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 and in the past, it wasn’t clear how to rapidly decarbonize vehicles. 

But, the world has come a long way since 2014 when scientists last assessed  progress on reducing emissions with the IPCC. 

Electric vehicle advertisements dominated Super Bowl advertising in the United States and a global race to mine metals for clean energy is underway. 

“The technology that’s available has really transformed the idea that the transport sector … can’t get its emissions down to zero,” said Jae Edmonds, the chief scientist at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Joint Global Change Research Institute, and an author of the IPCC report. “You can see a pathway that could take you there.”

Renewable energy, more broadly, has become cheaper, the report says. Since 2010, the cost of batteries and solar energy have fallen about 85 percent. The cost of wind power has dropped by 55 percent.  

“In some cases, costs have fallen below fossil fuels,” Skea said. 

Emissions are still rising — but more slowly. They need to peak before 2025 to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). 

The world is on pace for global average temperatures to rise roughly 3.2 degrees Celsius (5.8 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century, compared with preindustrial times. 

World leaders during climate negotiations last year pledged to reduce emissions and target 1.5 degrees Celsius. Those ambitions now hang by a thread. 

To reach the world’s 1.5-degree goal, emissions need to peak by 2025 and then be reduced by about 43 percent by 2030, Skea said. 

Previous IPCC reports found stark differences in a world warmed, on average, by 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared with 2 degrees. Exceeding 1.5 degrees could have irreversible impacts on ecosystems. Limiting warming would save about 4 inches of average sea level rise by 2100 and halve the number of species losing more than 50 percent of their habitat.

“The longer the delay occurs, the more ambitious the reductions need to be to meet the 1.5,” Edmonds said. “Eventually emissions have to go to zero.” 

Outsized emissions among those at the top

Globally, the world’s top 10 percent of households with the highest emissions per person are responsible for between 34-45 percent of all household greenhouse gas emissions. 

The bottom 50 percent of the global population contribute just 13-15 percent of all household emissions. 

Those findings are in line with a report on carbon inequality by the Stockholm Environment Institute, which found that the richest 1 percent of the world’s population are responsible for as much greenhouse gas output as twice the pollution of the poorest 3.1 billion people. 

Dealing with methane 

Methane is an extremely potent greenhouse gas that lasts about 10-15 years in the atmosphere. To researchers, reducing methane represents low-hanging fruit that could have a big impact on greenhouse gas emissions. 

Capturing more methane from landfills, changing diets to consume less livestock and shoring up infrastructure that carries natural gas could help reduce its impact.  

“It’s a high leverage gas to go after, the technologies are there for that. You can tighten up natural gas transmission and distribution systems. That’s something that’s pretty cost effective,” Edmonds said. “If you have pipelines blow out, that’s money going up into the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas, there’s a lot of incentive to tighten those systems up.” 

Building new fossil fuel infrastructure won’t work  

Continuing to install new fossil fuel infrastructure without abatement will lock in greenhouse gas emissions, a summary of the report says.  

The typical use of the fossil fuel infrastructure that’s already constructed or planned would result in going beyond the 1.5 degree Celsius target. 

“Investment in new fossil fuel infrastructure is moral and economic madness,” Guterres said. Given the pace of the energy transition, investment in new fossil fuel equipment could lead to these assets becoming “stranded,” he added, meaning that they would lose their value before it can be financially realized. 

Carbon capture and storage technology could reduce the risk of stranding these assets, but a shift away from fossil fuels is necessary, the report says.

Hundreds of mammal species still to be identified, predict researchers

Patrick Greenfield

Mouse lemurs in their nest in Madagascar. New techniques led to the discovery of a separate species last year. Photograph: Minden Pictures/Alamy

Hundreds of unidentified mammals are hiding in plain sight waiting to be discovered, according to a new study which predicts where to find so-called “cryptic” species across the tree of life.

African elephants, lemurs and two newly discovered see-through frogs in Ecuador that live just 13 miles apart are among a growing number of plants and animals that have been unmasked by genetic analysis in recent years, revealing they are not a single species but, in fact, many and separate groups, despite appearing similar to the human eye.

Thanks to the discoveries driven by the rise of DNA barcoding, a technique that can identify and differentiate between flora and fauna by their genetic divergence, scientists say our planet may be more biologically diverse than previously thought, meaning there could be many more species than the current best estimate of 8.7 million.

Now researchers have gone a step further and proposed a new method to predict where to look for new animal species on the web of life amid fears that many are becoming extinct before they are known to science.

By analysing millions of mammal gene sequences and other information on their environment and habitat, researchers say hundreds of bats, rodents, shrews and moles are waiting to be found, likely incorrectly classified as another species due to their size and physical appearance.

The semi-transparent glassfrog. Photograph: GFC Collection/Alamy

While that finding would not surprise many biologists, researchers say the new predictive model could be used to help find undiscovered species in other animal groups, such as insects, a class in which millions of species are yet to be identified.

“Based on our analysis, a conservative estimate would be that there are hundreds of species of mammals worldwide that have yet to be identified,” said Bryan Carstens, professor of evolution, ecology and organismal biology at Ohio State University, who co-authored the study, published on Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“What we did that was new was predict where these new species are most likely to be found,” Carstens said, adding that the model estimated that about 80% of mammal species had been discovered.

“The shocking thing is that mammals are very well described compared to beetles or ants or other types of animals. That knowledge is important to people who are doing conservation work. We can’t protect a species if we don’t know that it exists. As soon as we name something as a species, that matters in a lot of legal and other ways,” said Carstens.

The research, led by Ohio State graduate student Danielle Parsons, also predicted that cryptic mammal species are most likely to be those with wider geographic ranges with high precipitation and temperature variability. Examples include the little brown bat, found across North America, which was shown to be five separate species in 2018.

A Namibian giraffe, Giraffa giraffa angolensis. Photograph: Design Pics Inc/Alamy

The new DNA-based methods have caused a revolution in modern taxonomy, which, used in combination with traditional techniques first developed by Swedish botanist Carl Linnaeus, is helping scientists reorganise the library of life on Earth.

Researchers say taxonomists are unlikely to have to search far for species to unveil, with many specimens likely already in natural history collections at museums. Recent examples include the Popa langur in Myanmar, previously confused with another species, and a new Indian aloe plant.

Find more age of extinction coverage here, and follow biodiversity reporters Phoebe Weston and Patrick Greenfield on Twitter for all the latest news and features

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Biodiversity: Pressure grows for deal to save nature

Helen Briggs

A global agreement to reverse the loss of nature and halt extinctions is inching closer, as talks in Geneva enter their final day.

GETTY IMAGES I The vision is to live in harmony with nature by 2050

International negotiators are working on the text of a UN framework to safeguard nature ahead of a high-level summit in China later this year.

Observers have slammed the "snail's pace" of negotiations and are pressing for a strengthening of ambitions.

Divisions remain, including over financing the plans.

"The science is very clear, we do not have any more time to waste; we need to take action now," Bernadette Fischler Hooper, head of international advocacy at WWF-UK, told BBC News. 

"Not only on biodiversity loss, but also on climate change which is a very inter-linked issue. So that is what's at stake here; it's actually the future of the planet and its people."

The final version of the draft UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) will be negotiated in Kunming, China, at the Cop15 summit, which is expected to take place at the end of August.

GETTY IMAGES I The plans call for a fifth of degraded marine ecosystems to be restored

The outcome will decide for the coming decades how the world will address the challenges of reducing the extinction risk threatening more than one million species, protecting 30% of land and sea, eliminating billions of dollars of environmentally-damaging government subsidies and restoring degraded ecosystems.

Talks aimed at progressing the nascent agreement have been taking place in Geneva over the past two weeks.

After the first week, observers hit out at what they saw as a "glacial" rate of progress, but momentum has gathered during the final days, although "thorny issues" remain, including the financing of the plans.

The draft text contains the aim to increase finance to at least US $200bn a year by 2030, with funding from developed to developing countries to increase by at least US $10bn a year.

"Resource mobilisation at this meeting has become a thorny issue," Ghanaian academic Alfred Oteng-Yeboah, who has played a key role in international efforts to protect biodiversity, told the news agency, AFP.

On subsidies, the aim is to "redirect, reallocate, reform or eliminate incentives harmful for biodiversity" on the scale of at least US $500bn per year.

RUSS MITTERMEIER I The vast majority of lemur species, unique primates found only in Madagascar, are on the brink of extinction

The new Global Biodiversity Framework (GBD) is seen as the biodiversity equivalent of the Paris climate agreement. Biodiversity refers to all the different living things on Earth and how they fit together in a delicate web of life that we rely on for food, clean air and water.

One of the key ambitions is to turn 30% of Earth's lands and seas into protected areas by 2030. A recent UN climate report underlined the importance of conserving at least 30% of the planet to achieve biodiversity and climate goals.

Another goal is to ensure that, by 2050, a "shared vision of living in harmony with nature is fulfilled".

"We have this one goal, which is to bend the curve on biodiversity loss and really to build that shared future to live in harmony with nature in the long term," the convention's executive secretary, Elizabeth Maruma Mrema, told reporters at the start of the talks.

Scientists have issued repeated warnings about threats to nature driven by human actions, including chopping down forests and turning natural land over to farming.

A landmark 2019 assessment warned that nature was declining globally at rates unprecedented in human history, with up to one million species facing extinction.

The Cop15 conference in Kunming is expected to take place almost two years later than originally planned due to repeated delays caused by the Covid pandemic.

This has left the world without targets over the course of this decade for halting extinctions and reversing the worldwide loss of nature.

The Great Barrier Reef is suffering a sixth mass-bleaching event. Here's why scientists are concerned

Hilary Whiteman

Coral at Stanley Reef, about 83 miles (133 kilometers) off Townsville in Queensland, shows signs of bleaching caused by rising sea temperatures.

Brisbane, Australia (CNN) Australia's Great Barrier Reef is suffering its sixth mass bleaching due to heat stress caused by climate change, the reef's managers confirmed Friday.

The update comes mid-way through a 10-day monitoring mission by UNESCO scientists as they consider whether to add one of the world's seven natural wonders to their "in danger" list.

The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) and Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) said Friday that aerial surveys of around 750 reefs show widespread bleaching across the reef, with the most severe bleaching observed in northern and central areas.

Coral at Stanley Reef, about 83 miles (133 kilometers) off Townsville in Queensland, shows signs of bleaching caused by rising sea temperatures.

"More than half of the living coral cover that we can see from the air is severely bleached completely white and can have signs of fluorescence in the colors of pink, yellow and blue," said AIMS coral biologist Neal Cantin.

"The corals are producing these fluorescent pigments in an attempt to protect their tissue from heat and from the intense sun during these marine heatwaves."

Coral bleaching events tend to happen when water temperatures are much warmer than normal. But this bleaching event comes despite La Niña, which is characterized by cooler-than-normal temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

It's the fourth mass bleaching in six years and the first since 2020, when about one quarter of the reef surveyed showed signs of severe bleaching. That event came just three years after back-to-back bleaching events in 2016 and 2017. Previous bleaching occurred in 1998 and 2002.

David Wachenfeld, chief scientist at the GBRMPA, said the coral was stressed but not dead.

"If the water temperature decreases, bleached corals can recover from this stress. It is important to remember that we had a mass bleaching event in 2020, but there was very low coral mortality," Wachenfeld said.

Natural wonder under threat 

Australia's Great Barrier Reef stretches 1,400 miles (2,300 kilometers) down the Queensland coast. Before the pandemic forced borders to close, it attracted around three million tourists each year.

This year aerial surveys with helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft showed the worst of the bleaching is near Townsville. Tourist areas near Cairns and Port Douglas have been less affected due to lower levels of heat stress.

Bleaching occurs when stressed coral ejects algae from within its tissue, depriving it of a food source. If conditions don't improve, coral can starve and die, turning white as its carbonate skeleton is exposed.

Underwater images taken in 2022 show the Great Barrier Reef is suffering heat stress.

"Even the most robust corals require nearly a decade to recover," said Jodie Rummer, associate professor of Marine Biology at James Cook University in Townsville.

"So we're really losing that window of recovery. We're getting back-to-back bleaching events, back-to-back heat waves. And, and the corals just aren't adapting to these new conditions," she said.

The Australian government has been under pressure from UNESCO to prove that it's doing enough to save the reef.

Earlier this year, the Australian government pledged one billion Australian dollars ($700 million) spread over 10 years to support new climate adaptation technology, investment in water quality programs, and protection for key reef species.

While the extra funding was welcomed, the government has been called out by global climate experts, among others, for not doing enough to transition Australia away from fossil fuels.

The Climate Action Tracker gives the country a "highly insufficient rating" for its action on climate change. "The government appears intent on replacing fossil fuels with fossil fuels," it says, citing the government's "gas-led recovery" program, announced in 2020 to lead the country out an economic downturn related to the spread of Covid-19.

On Monday, United Nations Chief Antonio Guterres name-checked Australia among a "handful of holdouts" in the group of G20 countries who had not announced "meaningful emissions reductions."

The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority has just completed aerial surveys of all 3,000 reefs on the reef system.

He said countries and private businesses who invest in coal are costing the world its climate targets. And he said money spent on fossil fuels and subsidies was "a stupid investment leading to billions in stranded assets."

"It's time to end fossil fuel subsidies and stop the expansion of oil and gas exploration," he said.

Amanda McKenzie, CEO of the Climate Council, said the real issue the government should be addressing is climate change.

"To give our reef a fighting chance, we must deal with the number one problem: climate change. No amount of funding will stop these bleaching events unless we drive down our emissions this decade," she said in a statement.

Taliban’s backtracking on girls’ education, ‘deeply damaging’

© UNICEF/Sayed Bidel I Girls at school in Herat, Afghanistan.

“The de facto authorities’ failure to adhere to commitments to reopen schools for girls above the sixth grade – in spite of repeated commitments towards girls’ education, including during my visit to Kabul two weeks ago – is deeply damaging for Afghanistan”, High Commissioner  Michelle Bachelet said in a statement.

The denial of education violates the human rights of women and girls – UN human rights chief

‘Grave concern’

"Millions of secondary-school girls around Afghanistan woke up hopeful today that they will be able to go back to school and resume their learning. It did not take long for their hopes to be shattered."
statement by @unicefchief https://t.co/c5Fl1Q1b4q

— UNICEF Afghanistan (@UNICEFAfg) March 23, 2022

Although high schools were set to open their doors to girls nationwide, Taliban authorities reportedly reversed the move early on Wednesday, pending a ruling made on the uniforms they must wear.

“The denial of education violates the human rights of women and girls – beyond their equal right to education, it leaves them more exposed to violence, poverty and exploitation,” Ms. Bachelet explained.

Move jeopardizes Afghanistan's future: Guterres

The UN Secretary-General said in a statement later in the day, that he deeply regretted the Taliban's suspension of the return to school for high school girls.

"The start of the new school year has been anticipated by all students, girls and boys, and parents and families", said António Guterres. He added that the Taliban move "despite repeated commitments, is a profound disappointment and deeply damaging for Afghanistan.

The denial of education not only violates the equal rights of women and girls to education, it also jeopardizes the country’s future in view of the tremendous contributions by Afghan women and girls.    

  "I urge the Taliban de facto authorities to open schools for all students without any further delay." 

Recounting conversations

Ms. Bachelet recalled her recent visit to Kabul, where women stressed to her that they wanted to speak to the Taliban themselves.

The women told her that they have “information, solutions and the capability to help chart a way out of this economic, humanitarian and human rights crisis in Afghanistan.”

“They insisted upon the equal right to quality education at the primary, secondary and tertiary levels and were hopefully awaiting the reopening of schools today”.

‘Structural discrimination’

As Afghan citizens suffer the impacts of multiple intersecting crises, the senior UN official described the decision as being of “grave concern.”

“Disempowering half of Afghanistan’s population is counterproductive and unjust,” Ms. Bachelet said, adding that “structural discrimination such as this is also deeply damaging for the country’s prospects of future recovery and development.”

She called on the Taliban to “respect all girls’ rights to education and to open schools for all students without discrimination or further delay”.

Shattered hopes

The Executive Director of the UN Children’s Fund, Catherine Russell, also issued a statement describing the decision as “a major setback for girls and their futures”.

“Millions of secondary-school girls around Afghanistan woke up hopeful today that they will be able to go back to school and resume their learning,” she said.

“It did not take long for their hopes to be shattered.”

According to Ms. Russell the decision meant that an entire generation of adolescent girls is being “denied their right to an education and…robbed of the opportunity to gain the skills they need to build their futures.”

She urged the de facto authorities to honour their commitment to girls’ education without any further delay and appealed to community leaders in every corner of the country to support the education of adolescent girls.

“All children deserve to be in school. This is the surest way to put the country on a surer path toward the peace and prosperity that the people of Afghanistan deserve,” said the UNICEF chief.

Decision deplored

The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) responded to the news, by tweeting that it “deplores today’s reported announcement by the Taliban that they are further extending their indefinite ban on female students above the 6th grade being permitted to return school.”

Amazon rainforest reaching tipping point, researchers say

Helen Briggs

The Amazon rainforest is moving towards a "tipping point" where trees may die off en masse, say researchers.

A study suggests the world's largest rainforest is losing its ability to bounce back from damage caused by droughts, fires and deforestation.

GETTY IMAGES I Image caption, The Amazon contains between 90 and 140 billion metric tons of carbon

Large swathes could become sparsely forested savannah, which is much less efficient than tropical forest at sucking carbon dioxide from the air.

The giant forest traps carbon that would otherwise add to global warming. 

But previous studies have shown that parts of the Amazon are now emitting more carbon dioxide than can be absorbed.

"The trees are losing health and could be approaching a tipping point - basically, a mass loss of trees," said Dr Chris Boulton of the University of Exeter.

The findings, based on three decades of satellite data, show alarming trends in the "health" of the Amazon rainforest.

There are signs of a loss of resilience in more than 75% of the forest, with trees taking longer to recover from the effects of droughts largely driven by climate change as well as human impacts such as deforestation and fires.

A vicious cycle of damage could trigger "dieback", the scientists said. 

And while it's not clear when that critical point might be reached, the implications for climate change, biodiversity and the local community would be "devastating".

The more trees cut down, the less the forest can soak up emissions

GETTY IMAGES I Image caption, The more trees cut down, the less the forest can soak up emissions

Once the process begins they predict it could be a matter of decades before a "significant chunk" of the Amazon is transformed into savannah - a vastly different ecosystem made up of a mixture of grassland and trees.

"The Amazon stores lots of carbon and all of that would be released into the atmosphere, which would then further contribute to increasing temperatures and have future effects on global mean temperatures," Dr Boulton said, adding that stopping deforestation would go some way to addressing the problem.

Around a fifth of the rainforest has already been lost, compared to pre-industrial levels, they said.

The research was carried out by the University of Exeter, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Technical University of Munich. 

"Deforestation and climate change are likely to be the main drivers of this decline," said Prof Niklas Boers of PIK and the Technical University of Munich.

Commenting, Dr Bonnie Waring of the Grantham Institute - Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College London, said: "These latest findings are consistent with the accumulating evidence that the twin pressures of climate change and human exploitation of tropical forests are endangering the world's largest rainforest, which is home to one out of every 10 species known to science."

The findings, based on satellite data from 1991 to 2016, are published in the journal Nature Climate Change.