To the Editor,

In a recent article by Lai et al, published on the Journal of Medical Virology, the authors attempted a mathematical reconstruction of the evolutionary dynamics of the new coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV2) outbreak occurred in Wuhan (China), by analyzing 52 SARS‐CoV2 genomes provided at GISAID on 4 February 2020. This evaluation is fundamental to make authorities aware about spreading characteristics of SARS‐CoV2 in the Italian population and to earn insightful clues about the presumptive hypothesis that the current viral spreading in Italy surely comes from a Wuhan‐borne genotype and/or a Chinese outbreak. The same authors concluded that the SARS‐CoV2 in Italy might be present at least since September and October 2019, much before the claimed Wuhan outbreak. According to the World Health Organization evaluation, SARS‐CoV2 outbreaks in Europe occurred much before in Germany and France respect to Italy. Therefore, it might be presumed that a significant proportion of Italians were infected by SARS‐CoV2 in times greatly preceding the Government dispositions upon the cases enumeration. The daily differences between cases in the highest emergence period, that is, 1 to 9 March 2020, plotted a linear rather than an exponential trend. As x increases (1 day each), y values (cases number) increases by the same amount (1.2 or +20%) (Shapiro‐Wilk's exp test P = .442857). This possibly suggests that rhinopharyngeal swabs are catching homogeneous clusters of cases from dating back homogeneously, normally distributed preinfected population, depending also on an established maximal number of analyzed swabs for the day.

Keywords

Clinical aspects, diagnosis, treatment

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