COVID-19

Fighting climate crisis made harder by Covid-19 inequality, says WEF

Larry Elliott

Environmental issues are biggest danger in coming years, says international organisation

Flooding in Hyderabad, India. The WEF said extreme weather events were one of top risks caused by the climate emergency. Photograph: Mahesh Kumar A/AP

Flooding in Hyderabad, India. The WEF said extreme weather events were one of top risks caused by the climate emergency. Photograph: Mahesh Kumar A/AP

Tackling the existential risk posed by the climate crisis will be made harder by the growing gap between rich and poor triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic, the World Economic Forum has said.

The body that organises the annual gathering of the global elite in the Swiss town of Davos said warning signs of the threat posed by infectious disease had been ignored for the past 15 years, with disastrous results.

Despite the loss of almost 2 million lives to Covid-19, the WEF’s global risks report found that environmental issues were considered to pose the biggest danger in the coming years, both in terms of impact and likelihood.

Klaus Schwab, the executive chairman of the WEF, said: “In 2020, the risk of a global pandemic became reality. As governments, businesses and societies survey the damage inflicted over the last year, strengthening strategic foresight is now more important than ever.”

Schwab added: “Growing societal fragmentation – manifested through persistent and emerging risks to human health, rising unemployment, widening digital divides, and youth disillusionment – can have severe consequences in an era of compounded economic, environmental, geopolitical and technological risks.”

The WEF report said the Covid-19 pandemic had widened longstanding health, economic and digital disparities, making it harder to secure the international cooperation needed to combat challenges such as environmental degradation.

Extreme weather events were considered to be the top risk measured by the likelihood of them happening, followed by climate action failure, human environmental damage, infectious diseases and bio-diversity loss.

The top five risks in terms of impact were infectious diseases, climate action failure, weapons of mass destruction, biodiversity loss and natural resource crises.

For the first time, the report assessed risks according to when respondents thought they would pose a critical threat to the world. Short-term dangers – which could happen at any time in the next two years – revealed concern about infectious diseases, employment crises, digital inequality and youth disillusionment.

Over the medium term – three to five years – respondents believe the world will be threatened by knock-on economic and technological risks, which may take several years to materialise – such as asset bubble bursts, IT infrastructure breakdown, inflation and debt crises. Longer term concerns – five to 10 years – were dominated by existential threats, such as weapons of mass destruction, state collapse and biodiversity.

The WEF said it was hard for governments and businesses to address long-term risks but the pandemic had shown that ignoring the dangers did not make them less likely to happen.

The global risks survey is normally released a week before the annual meeting of the WEF but the pandemic has meant only a virtual event has been possible. A physical gathering is planned for Singapore in May.

COVID-19 could push the number of people living in extreme poverty to over 1 billion by 2030, says UNDP study

Focused SDG investments over the next decade could prevent the rise of extreme poverty and even exceed the development trajectory the world was on before the pandemic

UNDP.jpeg

New York – Severe long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic could push an additional 207 million people into extreme poverty on top of the current pandemic trajectory, bringing the total to over 1 billion by 2030, according to findings released today by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). This is not a foregone conclusion: with a focused set of investments towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), an additional 146 million people could be lifted out of extreme poverty compared to current COVID-19 trends.

The study, part of a long-standing partnership between UNDP and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver, assesses the impact of different COVID-19 recovery scenarios on the SDGs, evaluating the multidimensional effects of the pandemic over the next decade.

The ‘Baseline COVID’ scenario, based on current mortality rates and the most recent growth projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), would result in 44 million more people living in extreme poverty by 2030 compared to the development trajectory the world was on before the pandemic.

Under a ‘High Damage’ scenario, where the recovery is protracted, COVID-19 is likely to push an additional 207 million people into extreme poverty by 2030, and increase the female poverty headcount by an additional 102 million compared to that baseline, says the report. The High Damage scenario anticipates that 80 percent of the COVID-induced economic crisis would persist in 10 years’ time due to loss in productivity, preventing a full recovery to the growth trajectory seen before the pandemic.

However, the study also finds that a focused set of SDG investments over the next decade in social protection/welfare programmes, governance, digitalization, and a green economy could not only prevent the rise of extreme poverty, but actually exceed the development trajectory the world was on before the pandemic.

This ambitious, yet feasible ‘SDG Push’ scenario would lift an additional 146 million people out of extreme poverty, narrow the gender poverty gap, and reduce the female poverty headcount by 74 million, even taking into account the current impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“As this new poverty research highlights, the COVID-19 pandemic is a tipping point, and the choices leaders take now could take the world in very different directions. We have an opportunity to invest in a decade of action that not only helps people to recover from COVID-19, but that re-sets the development path of people and planet towards a more fair, resilient and green future,” said UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner.

The concerted SDG interventions suggested by the study combine behavioral changes through nudges for both governments and citizens, such as improved effectiveness and efficiency in governance and changes in consumption patterns of food, energy and water. The proposed interventions also focus on global collaboration on climate change, additional investments in COVID-19 recovery, and the need for improved broadband access and technology innovation.

The study also concludes that ‘SDG Push’ investments hold significant potential to boost human development in fragile and conflict-affected states, given that the majority of the additional 146 million people who would be lifted from poverty live in such settings, including 40 million women and girls.

This publication is the first installation of a UNDP flagship report on the impact of COVID-19 on the SDGs. It focuses on the implications of the pandemic on poverty, education, health, nutrition and gender equality – also referred to as the ‘People’ Goals in the 2030 Agenda. In early 2021, subsequent publications will share new insights about impacts on other dimensions of the 2030 Agenda – with a focus on prosperity, peace and planet.

Read the study and visualizations here: https://sdgintegration.undp.org/accelerating-development-progressduring-covid-19

Pfizer, BioNTech say Covid vaccine is more than 90% effective — ‘great day for science and humanity’

Pfizer and BioNTech announced Monday their coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 among those without evidence of prior infection, hailing the development as “a great day for science and humanity.”

“I think we can see light at the end of the tunnel,” Pfizer Chairman and CEO Dr. Albert Bourla told CNBC’s Meg Tirrell on “Squawk Box.” “I believe this is likely the most significant medical advance in the last 100 years, if you count the impact this will have in public health, global economy.”

The announcement comes as drugmakers and research centers scrambled to deliver a safe and effective vaccine to help bring an end to the coronavirus pandemic that has claimed over 1.2 million lives worldwide.

Scientists are hoping for a coronavirus vaccine that is at least 75% effective, while White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci has said one that is 50% or 60% effective would be acceptable.

U.S. stock futures skyrocketed as investors cheered the news. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,646 points, implying an opening gain of more than 1,630 points. By late morning, the Dow was up more than 1,000 points, a rise of 3.7%.

Airline and cruise company stocks jumped in premarket trading — with some stocks rising by 20% and 30%. Both industries have been significantly affected by the global health crisis as travel restrictions and a resurgence in outbreaks continue to hurt demand. 

Vaccine.JPG

Pfizer’s results were based on the first interim efficacy analysis conducted by an external and independent Data Monitoring Committee from the phase three clinical study. The independent group of experts oversees U.S. clinical trials to ensure the safety of participants.

The analysis evaluated 94 confirmed Covid-19 infections among the trial’s 43,538 participants. Pfizer and the U.S. pharmaceutical giant’s German biotech partner said the case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received a placebo indicated a vaccine efficacy rate of above 90% at seven days after the second dose.

It means that protection from Covid-19 is achieved 28 days after the initial vaccination, which consists of a two-dose schedule. The final vaccine efficacy percentage may vary, however, as safety and additional data continue to be collected.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former FDA commissioner and a member of Pfizer’s board, told CNBC the vaccine could be available in limited use as early as late December and widely available by the third quarter of 2021.

“The first set of results from our Phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine trial provides the initial evidence of our vaccine’s ability to prevent COVID-19,” Bourla said in a statement.

“We are reaching this critical milestone in our vaccine development program at a time when the world needs it most with infection rates setting new records, hospitals nearing over-capacity and economies struggling to reopen,” Bourla continued.

“With today’s news, we are a significant step closer to providing people around the world with a much-needed breakthrough to help bring an end to this global health crisis. We look forward to sharing additional efficacy and safety data generated from thousands of participants in the coming weeks.”

Distribution challenges

Roughly 42% of the trial’s global participants had racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds, Pfizer and BioNTech said, adding that there haven’t been any serious safety concerns reported yet.

The companies said they planned to submit for emergency use authorization to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration soon after they have two months of data, which is currently on track for the third week of November.

Based on current projections, Pfizer and BioNTech expect to produce up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020, and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021. The vaccine requires two doses per person. Though the companies didn’t take any money from the federal government for research and development for the drug, they reached a nearly $2 billion agreement in July to supply 100 million doses to the U.S. government as part of the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed. That money is helping with manufacturing and distribution.

vaccine 1.JPG

Plans to deliver hundreds of millions of coronavirus vaccines around the world raise questions about logistics and distribution in part because of the need to store and transport them in supercooled containers.

Pfizer’s vaccine requires a storage temperature of minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit. By comparison, Moderna has said its vaccine must be stored at minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit.

The company reportedly plans to load suitcase-sized boxes from distribution sites in Kalamazoo, Michigan, and Puurs, Belgium, onto as many as two dozen trucks per day, allowing for the daily transit of roughly 7.6 million doses to nearby airports.

The companies said they plan to submit data from the full phase three trial, which began on July 27, for scientific peer-review publication.

‘Let’s take a deep breath’

“The U.S. FDA set a threshold of 50% effectiveness for a Covid-19 vaccine to merit approval. A 90% effective vaccine would be extraordinary,” Dr. Peter Drobac, a global health physician and director of the Skoll Centre for Social Entrepreneurship at the University of Oxford, said via email.

“We’ll need to see the full results subjected to independent review. Let’s take a deep breath, but this is very promising news,” he added.

U.S. officials and scientists are hopeful a vaccine to prevent Covid-19 will be ready in the first half of 2021 — 12 to 18 months since Chinese scientists first identified the coronavirus and mapped its genetic sequence.

It’s a record-breaking time frame for a process that normally takes about a decade for an effective and safe vaccine. The fastest-ever vaccine development, mumps, took more than four years and was licensed in 1967.

A more than 90% effective coronavirus vaccine would be roughly on par with one dose of a measles vaccination, which is about 93% effective, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Comparatively, the CDC says a vaccine for influenza reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population.

— CNBC’s Berkeley Lovelace Jr. contributed to this report.

Dropped emissions during COVID-19 lockdown will do 'nothing' for climate change

Chelsea Gohd 

Coroclimate.JPG

While greenhouse gas emissions plummeted as the world locked down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, such dips will do "nothing" to slow climate change unless society moves away from fossil fuels, researchers have found. 

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the novel coronavirus disease, COVID-19, a pandemic, which it remains today. To slow the spread of the virus, countries around the world began implementing lockdown measures that limited travel and closed down factories and businesses. In turn, Earth-orbiting satellites saw a dramatic decrease in greenhouse gas emissions. 

However, according to an international study led by the University of Leeds, unless large-scale, structural interventions — like a significant switch away from fossil fuels — are implemented, these changes will not affect Earth's climate. In fact, the researchers found, even if lockdown measures continue in some fashion around the world until the end of 2021, more than a year and half total, global temperatures will only be roughly 0.018 degrees Fahrenheit (0.01 degrees Celsius) lower than expected by 2030.

"Lockdown showed that we can change and change fast, but it also showed the limits of behavior change," Piers Forster, study co-author and director of the Priestley International Center for Climate at Britain's University of Leeds, told AFP.

"Without underlying structural change we won't make it," he said, referring to climate goals. 

Climate work to do

Scientists have identified a temperature rise to "well below" 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C) above levels before the Industrial Revolution as a major climate target. Some countries are striving to keep temperature rise smaller, below 2.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees C). However, according to these researchers, this goal will be difficult to reach. 

"If I'm brutally honest, the world is unlikely to decarbonize at the rates required for 1.5 C, but getting anywhere close will make our children's future better," Forster said.

To see exactly how lockdown has affected emissions and climate in the long term, the researchers used open-source data to calculate exactly how the emission levels of 10 different greenhouse gases and air pollutants changed between February and June 2020 in over 120 countries. During those four months, the scientists found that production of pollutants including carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides dropped by between 10% and 30%, a significant decrease. 

However, the researchers found that the temporary emissions drop alone wouldn't have a significant impact on climate because these lockdown efforts are temporary, as opposed to larger, long-term structural changes. 

"The fall in emissions we experienced during COVID-19 is temporary and therefore it will do nothing to slow down climate change," co-author Corinne Le Quere from the University of East Anglia said in the same statement. 

In addition to measuring the effects of this temporary lockdown, the researchers also modeled how climate would be impacted if, after this lockdown period, larger changes like reduced use of fossil fuels were implemented around the world. The team highlighted that significant, government-led changes to reduce fossil fuel use would have a lasting, positive effect on climate. 

The scientists found that if invested 1.2% of gross domestic product in low-carbon technology post-lockdown, they could cut their emissions in half by 2030 compared with if countries continued to rely on fossil fuels as they do post-lockdown. 

"The government responses could be a turning point if they focus on a green recovery, helping to avoid severe impacts from climate change," Le Quere said. 

Jeffrey Sachs on World Environment Day, 2020: Building Resilient Health Structure to Combat Novel Diseases: A Case of COVID-19


Summary of the Event

The Virtual Symposium hosted over 25 renowned sustainability leaders, environmentalists, researchers, specialists on health, botanic conservation, resource management sustainable agriculture and building from around the world. Speaker such as Jeffrey Sachs, Adenike Akinsemolu, Marc Rosen, amongst others share their insights on our path towards sustainable development.


LISTEN TO PODCAST

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Jeffrey D. Sachs is a University Professor and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University .He is also  the Director of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network and a commissioner of the UN Broadband Commission …

Jeffrey D. Sachs is a University Professor and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University .He is also the Director of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network and a commissioner of the UN Broadband Commission for Development.

ABOUT THE MODERATOR

Dr. Jason J. McSparren is an educator, researcher, and administrator with a PhD. in Global Governance and Human Security from Massachusetts Boston.He is also a Pre-Doctoral Fellow (2017-18) for the West African Research Association (WARA).

Dr. Jason J. McSparren is an educator, researcher, and administrator with a PhD. in Global Governance and Human Security from Massachusetts Boston.He is also a Pre-Doctoral Fellow (2017-18) for the West African Research Association (WARA).


Q & A (SELECTED)

Jason Mcsparren: Dr. Akinsemolu, mentions in her new book, The Principles of Green and Sustainability Science that the ONE HEALTH INITIATIVE is practicing and promoting sustainable public health as it works to prevent infectious disease outbreaks. Can you offer the audience some insight into how the One Health Initiative has minimized the outbreak and spread of diseases in developing countries?

Jeffrey Sachs: The idea of the ONE HEALTH INITIATIVE which is an excellent idea is that we face the ever present risk of new diseases spreading from animal reservoirs to humans and we are in the middle of that pandemic right now with COVID-19. This is a disease where the virus has its host especially in bats, and spread to humans either directly through interaction between bats and humans or from bats to some kind of intermediates mammal species available to humans. We should be taking care of this kind of risk because we keep experiencing this kind of zoonotic transmission from animals to humans. The ONE HEALTH INITIATIVE is trying to draw awareness and preparedness, clearly we haven’t succeeded. COVID pandemic is worldwide and it is killing vast number of people. When politicians ignore science like Trump does, people suffer and die.

Jason Mcsparren: Your latest book, Ages of Globalization: Geography, Technology, and Institutions (Columbia University Press, 2020) Takes readers through a series of seven distinct waves of technological and institutional change throughout human history, starting with the original settling of the planet by early modern humans through long-distance migration then progressing to your reflections on our globally networked modern society. What reflections would you like to share with us about our global-human society and the challenges of environmental sustainability?

Jeffrey Sachs: We have been interconnected as a species from the start over vast human distancing. In other words, from the first dispersal out of Africa until now we have been communicating, moving, and trading goods over huge distances. The whole has been for the benefits of humanity but also carries great risks too like the spread of infectious diseases or war and violence when the trade is not in goods and services but in movement of armies and trade of the killing. This is another side of Globalization, so the book is really a reflection on this interconnectedness, how they get the best of Globalization and how to avoid the worst. We have tried even in modern times at various points to stop Globalization, that has been a disaster but we have to learn how to cooperate too and how to cooperate at a global scale. That’s why I’m a big believer in the United Nations (UN) as vital force and that’s why extreme nationalist who are very arrogant and chauvinistic like Trump don’t like the UN because it would have the United State obey international rules not simply the President whims. This is  all the more reason why we need the UN, when we see such an unstable person in power we need rules not just the discretion of individual with their armies under their command.

Jason Mcsparren: Great point, great point, yes, I would have to agree with you, I also support the idea of multilateralism in the United Nations and all of the other transnational organizations that, you know, the states around the world have put together, you know, the World Health Organization, et cetera, to protect citizens. And we are seeing a little bit of a fracture in that cooperation. So we are at some sort of an inflection point in not only our current society at home in the US, but also globally.

Jeffrey Sachs: I would say it's more than a fracture. It is an attempt by Trump and others to destroy these institutions, to pull the United States out of the Paris climate agreement, to pull the United States out of the World Health Organization, to pull the United States out of the Human Rights Council. They want to break these institutions because they think that the world belongs to the powerful. They also think they're powerful. I'm not so sure, but they are destructive. And that's what they're trying to do, is to destroy these multilateral institutions.

Jason Mcsparren: OK, yes. Yes, that is an interesting observation. I really do hope and I think that our institutions are strong. They are under stress, and we'll see, you know, what the future holds for them. However, there are a lot of people watching us today that feel similarly to to you along those lines and really do support the UN in other transnational organizations.

Jason Mcsparren: Dr Sachs, I have another question for you. This one relates to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The UN Sustainable Development Goals were inaugurated in 2015 about five years ago. Can you remind us of some notable achievements in the healthcare system across sub-Saharan Africa, and what are the challenges of health coverage in the high-income countries since the declaration of the SDGs? And, what are some remaining challenges?

Jeffrey Sachs: The idea of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is that everybody should be able to enjoy the benefits of modern technologies and economic progress and to live in an environmentally safe planet. We are obviously far from this. The SDGs are goals. They are aspirations and are not our current reality but they are also an inspiration for action. The SDG 3 calls for Universal access to health care and even in difficult circumstances in Africa, there has been an expansion of access to basic health care often through very creative means such as deploying Community Health Workers (CHWs) backed up by good information technology because CHWs can play a huge role in monitoring the health of the community and helping to connect people in need, suffering from illness, for example pregnant women with the health systems to get antenatal, safe delivery in child birth or to fight the battle of malaria. This is a very positive side and it’s these CHWs that are now in the front line of the fight against COVID-19 in Africa. This epidemic spreads easily, very dangerous, creates lots of deaths, it needs to be fought and the Africa’s health systems needs to be guided urgently so that this epidemic is contained.


Quotes

Jeffrey-quote-post.fw.png
Development aid and tax reform are the two most important ways to help poor countries to close their budget deficit
— Jeffrey Sachs
We face an ever present risk of new diseases spreading from animal
reservoirs to humans.
— Jeffrey Sachs

Top Comments

Inspiring and Insightful conversations- Gideon


FURTHER READING

Jeffrey D. Sachs (2020) The Ages of Globalization Geography, Technology, and Institutions. Columbia University Press.

Jeffrey D. Sachs (2015) The Age of Sustainable Development. Columbia University Press.

Peter J Hotez, David H Molyneux, Alan Fenwick, Jacob Kumaresan, Sonia Ehrlich Sachs, Jeffrey D Sachs, Lorenzo Savioli (2007) Control of neglected tropical diseases. New England journal of medicine. Massachusetts Medical Society.

THE GREEN ROOM (Episode 2): Jeffrey Sachs on Building Resilient Health Structure to Combat Novel Diseases: A Case of COVID-19


Summary of the Event

Various factors determine a country's infectious diseases' death rate: the quality of leadership, the consistency in government's response, the availability of a responsive health care system, the extent of international travel, and the population's age structure. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Prof. Jeffrey Sachs shares insights on how to judiciously manage and respond to future infectious disease threats through an integrated and resilient process.


LISTEN TO PODCAST


ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Jeffrey D. Sachs is a University Professor and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University .He is also the Director of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network and a commissioner of the UN Broadband Commission f…

Jeffrey D. Sachs is a University Professor and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University .He is also the Director of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network and a commissioner of the UN Broadband Commission for Development.

ABOUT THE MODERATOR

Dr. Jason J. McSparren is an educator, researcher, and administrator with a PhD. in Global Governance and Human Security from Massachusetts Boston.He is also a Pre-Doctoral Fellow (2017-18) for the West African Research Association (WARA).

Dr. Jason J. McSparren is an educator, researcher, and administrator with a PhD. in Global Governance and Human Security from Massachusetts Boston.He is also a Pre-Doctoral Fellow (2017-18) for the West African Research Association (WARA).


Q & A (SELECTED)

Jason Mcsparren: Dr. Akinsemolu, mentions in her new book, The Principles of Green and Sustainability Science that the ONE HEALTH INITIATIVE is practicing and promoting sustainable public health as it works to prevent infectious disease outbreaks. Can you offer the audience some insight into how the One Health Initiative has minimized the outbreak and spread of diseases in developing countries?

Jeffrey Sachs: The idea of the ONE HEALTH INITIATIVE which is an excellent idea is that we face the ever present risk of new diseases spreading from animal reservoirs to humans and we are in the middle of that pandemic right now with COVID-19. This is a disease where the virus has its host especially in bats, and spread to humans either directly through interaction between bats and humans or from bats to some kind of intermediates mammal species available to humans. We should be taking care of this kind of risk because we keep experiencing this kind of zoonotic transmission from animals to humans. The ONE HEALTH INITIATIVE is trying to draw awareness and preparedness, clearly we haven’t succeeded. COVID pandemic is worldwide and it is killing vast number of people. When politicians ignore science like Trump does, people suffer and die.

Jason Mcsparren: Your latest book, Ages of Globalization: Geography, Technology, and Institutions (Columbia University Press, 2020) Takes readers through a series of seven distinct waves of technological and institutional change throughout human history, starting with the original settling of the planet by early modern humans through long-distance migration then progressing to your reflections on our globally networked modern society. What reflections would you like to share with us about our global-human society and the challenges of environmental sustainability?

Jeffrey Sachs: We have been interconnected as a species from the start over vast human distancing. In other words, from the first dispersal out of Africa until now we have been communicating, moving, and trading goods over huge distances. The whole has been for the benefits of humanity but also carries great risks too like the spread of infectious diseases or war and violence when the trade is not in goods and services but in movement of armies and trade of the killing. This is another side of Globalization, so the book is really a reflection on this interconnectedness, how they get the best of Globalization and how to avoid the worst. We have tried even in modern times at various points to stop Globalization, that has been a disaster but we have to learn how to cooperate too and how to cooperate at a global scale. That’s why I’m a big believer in the United Nations (UN) as vital force and that’s why extreme nationalist who are very arrogant and chauvinistic like Trump don’t like the UN because it would have the United State obey international rules not simply the President whims. This is  all the more reason why we need the UN, when we see such an unstable person in power we need rules not just the discretion of individual with their armies under their command.

Jason Mcsparren: Great point, great point, yes, I would have to agree with you, I also support the idea of multilateralism in the United Nations and all of the other transnational organizations that, you know, the states around the world have put together, you know, the World Health Organization, et cetera, to protect citizens. And we are seeing a little bit of a fracture in that cooperation. So we are at some sort of an inflection point in not only our current society at home in the US, but also globally.

Jeffrey Sachs: I would say it's more than a fracture. It is an attempt by Trump and others to destroy these institutions, to pull the United States out of the Paris climate agreement, to pull the United States out of the World Health Organization, to pull the United States out of the Human Rights Council. They want to break these institutions because they think that the world belongs to the powerful. They also think they're powerful. I'm not so sure, but they are destructive. And that's what they're trying to do, is to destroy these multilateral institutions.

Jason Mcsparren: OK, yes. Yes, that is an interesting observation. I really do hope and I think that our institutions are strong. They are under stress, and we'll see, you know, what the future holds for them. However, there are a lot of people watching us today that feel similarly to to you along those lines and really do support the UN in other transnational organizations.

Jason Mcsparren: Dr. Sachs, I have another question for you. This one relates to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The UN Sustainable Development Goals were inaugurated in 2015 about five years ago. Can you remind us of some notable achievements in the healthcare system across sub-Saharan Africa, and what are the challenges of health coverage in the high-income countries since the declaration of the SDGs? And, what are some remaining challenges?

Jeffrey Sachs: The idea of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is that everybody should be able to enjoy the benefits of modern technologies and economic progress and to live in an environmentally safe planet. We are obviously far from this. The SDGs are goals. They are aspirations and are not our current reality but they are also an inspiration for action. The SDG 3 calls for Universal access to health care and even in difficult circumstances in Africa, there has been an expansion of access to basic health care often through very creative means such as deploying Community Health Workers (CHWs) backed up by good information technology because CHWs can play a huge role in monitoring the health of the community and helping to connect people in need, suffering from illness, for example pregnant women with the health systems to get antenatal, safe delivery in child birth or to fight the battle of malaria. This is a very positive side and it’s these CHWs that are now in the front line of the fight against COVID-19 in Africa. This epidemic spreads easily, very dangerous, creates lots of deaths, it needs to be fought and the Africa’s health systems needs to be guided urgently so that this epidemic is contained.


Quotes

Jeffrey-quote-post.fw.png
Development aid and tax reform are the two most important ways to help poor countries to close their budget deficit
— Jeffrey Sachs
We face an ever present risk of new diseases spreading from animal
reservoirs to humans.
— Jeffrey Sachs

Top Comments

Such an amazing conversation with Prof Jeffrey Sachs- Deborah


FURTHER READING

Jeffrey D. Sachs (2020) The Ages of Globalization Geography, Technology, and Institutions. Columbia University Press.

Jeffrey D. Sachs (2015) The Age of Sustainable Development. Columbia University Press.

Peter J Hotez, David H Molyneux, Alan Fenwick, Jacob Kumaresan, Sonia Ehrlich Sachs, Jeffrey D Sachs, Lorenzo Savioli (2007) Control of neglected tropical diseases. New England journal of medicine. Massachusetts Medical Society.

Sewage poses potential COVID-19 transmission risk, experts warn

University of Stirling

Environmental biologists at the University of Stirling have warned that the potential spread of COVID-19 via sewage "must not be neglected" in the battle to protect human health.

The response to the global pandemic has focused upon preventing person-to-person transmission, however, experts now believe the virus could also be spread in wastewater.

Earlier this week, it emerged that analysis of sewage in the UK could provide important data on the spread of COVID-19. However, Professor Richard Quilliam's new paper -- published May 6 -- now warns that the sewerage system itself could pose a transmission risk.

Writing in the journal Environment International, Professor Quilliam and colleagues from Stirling's Faculty of Natural Sciences are calling for "an investment of resources" to investigate their concerns.

Professor Quilliam -- who is currently leading a £1.85 million study into the transport of bacteria and viruses in marine environments -- said: "We know that COVID-19 is spread through droplets from coughs and sneezes, or via objects or materials that carry infection. However, it has recently been confirmed that the virus can also be found in human faeces -- up to 33 days after the patient has tested negative for the respiratory symptoms of COVID-19.

"It is not yet known whether the virus can be transmitted via the faecal-oral route, however, we know that viral shedding from the digestive system can last longer than shedding from the respiratory tract. Therefore, this could be an important -- but as yet unquantified -- pathway for increased exposure."

The authors of the peer-reviewed paper presented the example of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2002-2003, when SARS-CoV-1 -- closely linked to the COVID-19 virus strain (SARS-CoV-2) -- was detected in sewage discharged by two hospitals in China.

Professor Quilliam highlights that, as most COVID-19 patients are asymptomatic or experience just mild symptoms and remain at home -- not in hospitals, there is significant risk of "widespread" distribution through sewers.

Professor Quilliam authored the paper alongside Professor Manfred Weidmann, Dr Vanessa Moresco, Heather Purshouse, Dr Zoe O'Hara, and Dr David Oliver.

The biologists said a lack of testing "makes it difficult" to predict the scale of the potential spread and the public health implications of the virus arriving at wastewater treatment works, whilst the implications of consequent discharge into the wider environment are only just beginning to be investigated.

They added that the structural makeup of COVID-19 -- specifically its lipid envelope covering -- suggests that it will behave differently in aqueous environments, compared to other viruses typically found in the intestine. There is currently limited information on the environmental persistence of COVID-19, but other coronaviruses can remain viable in sewage for up to 14 days, depending on the environmental conditions.

On the risk of human exposure, the authors said: "The transport of coronaviruses in water could increase the potential for the virus to become aerosolised, particularly during the pumping of wastewater through sewerage systems, at the wastewater treatment works, and during its discharge and the subsequent transport through the catchment drainage network.

"Atmospheric loading of coronaviruses in water droplets from wastewater is poorly understood but could provide a more direct respiratory route for human exposure, particularly at sewage pumping stations, wastewater treatment works and near waterways that are receiving wastewater."

Risk could be further increased in parts of the world with high levels of open defecation, or where safely managed sanitation systems are limited and waterways are used as both open sewers and sources of water for domestic purposes.

"Such settings are commonly accompanied by poorly resourced and fragile healthcare systems, thus amplifying both exposure risk and potential mortality," the authors said.

Currently, all published data on faecal shedding of SARS-CoV-2 derive from hospitalised patients -- with limited information available on mild and asymptomatic cases. The paper concludes: "In the immediate future, there needs to be an investment of resources to improve our understanding of the risks associated with faecal transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and whether this respiratory virus can be disseminated by enteric transmission.

"Understanding the risk of spread via the faecal-oral route, while still at a fairly early stage of the pandemic, will allow more evidence-based information about viral transmission to be shared with the public. Furthermore, the risks associated with sewage loading during the remainder of the COVID-19 outbreak need to be rapidly quantified to allow wastewater managers to act quickly and put in place control measures to decrease human exposure to this potentially infectious material.

"At a time when the world is so focused on the respiratory pathways of a respiratory virus, understanding the opportunities for SARS-CoV-2 to be spread by the faecal-oral route must not be neglected."

Rising rates of unemployment as COVID-19 calls the shot on Workers' Day

May 1st has always been recognized internationally as Workers' Day/May Day/International Workers' Day/Labor Day depending on the country. This Day commemorates the historical struggles and gains made by workers and the labor market in different countries. Never has the world been brought to its knees in rising unemployment in such a short period (a quarter of a year). Workers in developed countries are filing for unemployment benefits while those in the developing and least developed countries are battling with social unrest. The glorified average American worker has lost faith in job security. The average worker in developing countries is questioning if he was ever employed. The mandatory lockdown has led to salary reduction, deferment, and ultimately loss of jobs. The agitation of global workers does not in any way call for celebration. May 1st, 2020 would go down in history as a day of celebration without a cause to celebrate, a public holiday celebrated in lockdown.

The link between unemployment and the economy is increasingly becoming clearer. As millions of workers lose their jobs, the economy is dealt a blow due to a fall in demand and supply. When workers become unemployed, their purchasing power is limited, leading to a reduction in their demand for goods and services. Consequently, there is a proportional decrease in the supply of goods and services whose resultant effect is an economy on life support. The repetition of this cycle drags the economy into phases of repression and depression until it is bailed out by ‘economic experts.'

Historically, the underlying causes of unemployment were a combination of both structures and systems. Presently, rising unemployment is spearheaded single-handedly by the Coronavirus invasion. As millions of workers around the globe adhere to the lockdown, so does their jobs face an imminent threat of indefinite lockdown. COVID-19 has placed all workers on a standstill as they are forced to stay at home and observe social distancing. The usual celebration of jubilant workers marching down the streets in some countries has been postponed. Workers around the globe are having a solemn rethink of their employment status.

However, it seems that the only workers whose jobs are not on the line are the health workers. These workers are at the forefront of this pandemic, risking their lives in attending to patients of the virus. They are also leading in the area of Research and Development (R&D) in a race to find a vaccine for the cure. To this effect, they deserve our gratitude and assigning May 1st 2020 as Health Workers Day in lieu of COVID-19 is not too much an honorarium.

In conclusion, could this be the right time for workers and upcoming workers alike to rethink the ‘false hope' laid in job security? Could this be the time that the idea of entrepreneurship is taken seriously? Could this be the right time to emphasize the need for economic diversification? Could this be the time workers realize that they need financial freedom, not more jobs? Could this be the right time to enroll in sustainability courses? Could this be the time…? Only time will tell! 

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Question of the day: What will 2020 hold?

Best Regards.

The Green Team.

Researchers identify cells likely targeted by Covid-19 virus

Anne Trafton

Study finds specific cells in the lungs, nasal passages, and intestines that are more susceptible to infection.

Researchers at MIT; the Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT, and Harvard; and the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard; along with colleagues from around the world have identified specific types of cells that appear to be targets of the coronavirus that is causing the Covid-19 pandemic.

Using existing data on the RNA found in different types of cells, the researchers were able to search for cells that express the two proteins that help the SARS-CoV-19 virus enter human cells. They found subsets of cells in the lung, the nasal passages, and the intestine that express RNA for both of these proteins much more than other cells.

The researchers hope that their findings will help guide scientists who are working on developing new drug treatments or testing existing drugs that could be repurposed for treating Covid-19.

“Our goal is to get information out to the community and to share data as soon as is humanly possible, so that we can help accelerate ongoing efforts in the scientific and medical communities,” says Alex K. Shalek, the Pfizer-Laubach Career Development Associate Professor of Chemistry, a core member of MIT’s Institute for Medical Engineering and Science (IMES), an extramural member of the Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research, an associate member of the Ragon Institute, and an institute member at the Broad Institute.

Shalek and Jose Ordovas-Montanes, a former MIT postdoc who now runs his own lab at Boston Children’s Hospital, are the senior authors of the study, which appears today in Cell. The paper’s lead authors are MIT graduate students Carly Ziegler, Samuel Allon, and Sarah Nyquist; and Ian Mbano, a researcher at the Africa Health Research Institute in Durban, South Africa.

Digging into data

Not long after the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak began, scientists discovered that the viral “spike” protein binds to a receptor on human cells known as angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). Another human protein, an enzyme called TMPRSS2, helps to activate the coronavirus spike protein, to allow for cell entry. The combined binding and activation allows the virus to get into host cells.

“As soon as we realized that the role of these proteins had been biochemically confirmed, we started looking to see where those genes were in our existing datasets,” Ordovas-Montanes says. “We were really in a good position to start to investigate which are the cells that this virus might actually target.”

Shalek’s lab, and many other labs around the world, have performed large-scale studies of tens of thousands of human, nonhuman primate, and mouse cells, in which they use single-cell RNA sequencing technology to determine which genes are turned on in a given cell type. Since last year, Nyquist has been building a database with partners at the Broad Institute to store a huge collection of these datasets in one place, allowing researchers to study potential roles for particular cells in a variety of infectious diseases.

Much of the data came from labs that belong to the Human Cell Atlas project, whose goal is to catalog the distinctive patterns of gene activity for every cell type in the human body. The datasets that the MIT team used for this study included hundreds of cell types from the lungs, nasal passages, and intestine. The researchers chose those organs for the Covid-19 study because previous evidence had indicated that the virus can infect each of them. They then compared their results to cell types from unaffected organs.

“Because we have this incredible repository of information, we were able to begin to look at what would be likely target cells for infection,” Shalek says. “Even though these datasets weren’t designed specifically to study Covid, it’s hopefully given us a jump start on identifying some of the things that might be relevant there.”

In the nasal passages, the researchers found that goblet secretory cells, which produce mucus, express RNAs for both of the proteins that SARS-CoV-2 uses to infect cells. In the lungs, they found the RNAs for these proteins mainly in cells called type II pneumocytes. These cells line the alveoli (air sacs) of the lungs and are responsible for keeping them open.

In the intestine, they found that cells called absorptive enterocytes, which are responsible for the absorption of some nutrients, express the RNAs for these two proteins more than any other intestinal cell type.

“This may not be the full story, but it definitely paints a much more precise picture than where the field stood before,” Ordovas-Montanes says. “Now we can say with some level of confidence that these receptors are expressed on these specific cells in these tissues.”

Fighting infection

In their data, the researchers also saw a surprising phenomenon — expression of the ACE2 gene appeared to be correlated with activation of genes that are known to be turned on by interferon, a protein that the body produces in response to viral infection. To explore this further, the researchers performed new experiments in which they treated cells that line the airway with interferon, and they discovered that the treatment did indeed turn on the ACE2 gene.

Interferon helps to fight off infection by interfering with viral replication and helping to activate immune cells. It also turns on a distinctive set of genes that help cells fight off infection. Previous studies have suggested that ACE2 plays a role in helping lung cells to tolerate damage, but this is the first time that ACE2 has been connected with the interferon response.

The finding suggests that coronaviruses may have evolved to take advantage of host cells’ natural defenses, hijacking some proteins for their own use.

“This isn’t the only example of that,” Ordovas-Montanes says. “There are other examples of coronaviruses and other viruses that actually target interferon-stimulated genes as ways of getting into cells. In a way, it’s the most reliable response of the host.”

Because interferon has so many beneficial effects against viral infection, it is sometimes used to treat infections such as hepatitis B and hepatitis C. The findings of the MIT team suggest that interferon’s potential role in fighting Covid-19 may be complex. On one hand, it can stimulate genes that fight off infection or help cells survive damage, but on the other hand, it may provide extra targets that help the virus infect more cells.

“It’s hard to make any broad conclusions about the role of interferon against this virus. The only way we’ll begin to understand that is through carefully controlled clinical trials,” Shalek says. “What we are trying to do is put information out there, because there are so many rapid clinical responses that people are making. We’re trying to make them aware of things that might be relevant.”

Shalek now hopes to work with collaborators to profile tissue models that incorporate the cells identified in this study. Such models could be used to test existing antiviral drugs and predict how they might affect SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The MIT team and their collaborators have made all the data they used in this study available to other labs who want to use it. Much of the data used in this study was generated in collaboration with researchers around the world, who were very willing to share it, Shalek says.

“There’s been an incredible outpouring of information from the scientific community with a number of different parties interested in contributing to the battle against Covid in any way possible,” he says. “It’s been incredible to see a large number of labs from around the world come together to try and collaboratively tackle this.”

The research was funded by the Searle Scholars Program, the Beckman Young Investigator Program, the Pew-Stewart Scholars Program for Cancer Research, a Sloan Fellowship in Chemistry, the National Institutes of Health, the Aeras Foundation, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Richard and Susan Smith Family Foundation, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, the UMass Center for Clinical and Translational Science Project Pilot Program, the MIT Stem Cell Initiative, Fondation MIT, and the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs.

Who's Hit Hardest By COVID-19? Why Obesity, Stress And Race All Matter

ALLISON AUBREY

As data emerges on the spectrum of symptoms caused by COVID-19, it's clear that people with chronic health conditions are being hit harder.

While many people experience mild illness, 89% of people with COVID-19 who were sick enough to be hospitalized had at least one chronic condition. About half had high blood pressure and obesity, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And about a third had diabetes and a third had cardiovascular disease. So, what explains this?

"Obesity is a marker for a number of other problems," explains Dr. Aaron Carroll, a public health researcher at the Indiana University School of Medicine. It's increasingly common for those who develop obesity to develop diabetes and other conditions, as well. So, one reason COVID-19 is taking its toll on people who have obesity is that their overall health is often compromised.

But does obesity specifically affect the immune system? Perhaps.

Prior research has shown that people with obesity are less protected by the flu vaccine. They tend to get sicker from the respiratory disease even if they've been immunized. In fact, researchers have found that as people gain excess weight, their metabolism changes and this shift can make the immune system less effective at fighting off viruses.

"What we see with obesity is that these [immune] cells don't function as well,' says Melinda Beck, a health researcher at University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. Basically, she explains, obesity throws off the fuel sources that immune cells need to function. "The [immune cells] are not using the right kinds of fuels," Beck says. And, as a result, the condition of obesity seems to "impair that critical immune response [needed] to deal with either the virus infection or [the ability] to make a robust response to a vaccine."

So this is one explanation as to why people with obesity seem more vulnerable to serious infection. But, there are many more questions about why some people are hit harder, including whether race is a factor.

The CDC found that 33% of people who've been hospitalized with COVID-19 are African American, yet only 13% of the U.S. population is African American. Some local communities have found a similar pattern in their data. Among the many (26) states reporting racial data on COVID-19, blacks account for 34% of COVID deaths, according to research from Johns Hopkins University.

This disproportionate toll can be partially explained by the fact that there's a higher prevalence of obesity, high blood pressure and diabetes among African Americans compared with whites.

And as Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health said last week at a White House coronavirus task force briefing, this crisis "is shining a bright light on how unacceptable that is, because yet again, when you have a situation like the coronavirus, [African Americans] are suffering disproportionately."

There are several factors, including some genetic ones, that may make African Americans more vulnerable to COVID-19. "There have been a few studies that have pointed to African Americans potentially having genetic risk factors that make them more salt-sensitive," says Renã Robinson, a professor of chemistry who researches chronic disease at Vanderbilt University. This may increase the likelihood of high blood pressure, which, in turn, is linked to more serious forms of COVID-19. "It could be a contributing factor," she says, but there are likely multiple causes at play.

Another issue to consider, she says, may be high stress levels. She says when a person experiences racial discrimination, it can contribute to chronic stress. She points to several studies that link discrimination and stress to higher levels of inflammation among black adults. "And chronic stress can make one more vulnerable to infection because it can lower your body's ability to fight off an infection," she says.

Chronic stress is linked to poverty — so this could be a risk factor for low-income communities. In fact, research has shown that people who report higher levels of stress are more likely to catch a cold, when exposed to a virus, compared with people who are not stressed.

According to a new survey from Pew Research Center, health concerns about COVID-19 are much higher among Hispanics and blacks in the U.S. While 18% of white adults say they're "very concerned" that they will get COVID-19 and require hospitalization, 43% of Hispanic respondents and 31% of black adults say they're "very concerned" about that happening.

And other aspects of structural racism could contribute to the elevated risk for black Americans.

"Every major crisis or catastrophe hits the most vulnerable communities the hardest," say Marc Morial, president and CEO of the National Urban League. And he points to several factors that help to explain the racial divide.

"Black workers are more likely to hold the kinds of jobs that cannot be done from home," Morial says. So, they may be more likely to be exposed to the virus, if they are working in places where it's difficult to maintain social distancing. In addition, he points to longstanding inequities in access to quality care.

"There also is bias among health care workers, institutions and systems that results in black patients ... receiving fewer medical procedures and poorer-quality medical care than white individuals," he says. He says an expansion of Medicaid into those states that still haven't expanded would be one effective policy to address these inequities.

The characteristics of the communities where people live could affect risk, too especially for those who live in low-income neighborhoods. The roots of chronic illness stem from the way people live and the choices that may or may not be available to them. People who develop the chronic illnesses that put them at higher risk of COVID-19 often lack access to affordable and healthy foods or live in neighborhoods where it's not safe to play or exercise outside.

"Let's take a patient with diabetes for example. They are already at high risk for COVID-19 by having a chronic condition," says Joseph Valenti, a physician in Denton, Texas, who promotes awareness of the social determinants of health through his work with the Physicians Foundation.

"If they also live in a food desert, they have to put themselves in greater risk if they want access to healthy food. They may need to take a bus, with people that have COVID-19 but aren't showing symptoms, to get access to nutritious food or even their insulin prescription," he says.

Poor nutrition, and the obesity linked to it, is a leading cause of premature death around the globe. And, this pandemic brings into focus the vulnerability of the millions of people living with lifestyle-related, chronic disease.

"We're seeing the convergence of chronic disease with an infection," says UNC's Beck. And the data suggest that the combination of these two can lead to more serious illness. "We're seeing that obesity can have a great influence on infection," she says.

So, will this shine a spotlight on the need to address these issues? "Hopefully," Beck says. "I think paying attention to these chronic diseases like obesity is in everybody's best interest."

Social media can accurately forecast economic impact of natural disasters—including COVID-19 pandemic

 University of Bristol

Social media should be used to chart the economic impact and recovery of businesses in countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to new research published in Nature Communications. University of Bristol scientists describe a 'real time' method accurately trialled across three global natural disasters which could be used to reliably forecast the financial impact of the current global health crisis.

Traditional economic recovery estimates, such as surveys and interviews, are usually costly, time-consuming and do not scale-up well. However, researchers from Bristol's Departments of Engineering Maths and Civil Engineering show they were able to accurately estimate the downtime and recovery of small businesses in countries affected by three different natural hazards using aggregated social media data.

The method relies on the assumption that businesses tend to publish more social media posts when they are open and fewer when they are closed, hence analysing the aggregated posting activity of a group of businesses over time it is possible to infer when they are open or closed.

Using data from the public Facebook posts of local businesses collected before, during and after three natural disasters comprising the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, the 2017 Chiapas earthquake in Mexico, and the 2017 hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, the team charted the number of smaller urban businesses who were closed and then were able to measure their recovery post-event. The team validated their analysis using field surveys, official reports, Facebook surveys, Facebook posts text analysis and other studies available in literature.

Importantly, the framework works in 'real time' without the need for text analysis which can be largely dependent on language, culture or semantic analysis and can be applied to any size area or type of natural disaster, in developed and developing countries, allowing local governments to better target the distribution of resources.

Dr. Filippo Simini, Senior Lecturer and lead author explains: "The challenge of nowcasting the effect of natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, and pandemics on assets, people and society has never been more timely than ever for assessing the ability of countries to recover from extreme events.

"Often, small to medium-sized businesses slip through the net of traditional monitoring process of recovery. We noticed in areas struck by natural hazard events that not all areas and populations react in the same way."

Dr. Flavia De Luca, Senior Lecturer in Bristol's Department of Civil Engineering and lead author, added: "We had the idea of supporting post-emergency deployment of resources after a natural hazard event using public Facebook posts of businesses to measure how a specific region is recovering after the event. It was amazing to find out that the approach was providing information on the recovery in 'real time."

"We would like to test the method to measure the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic."