Plan for the future now or Covid will last for years, UK scientists warn

Robin McKie

Ambulances at the Royal London Hospital on Saturday 9 January. Photograph: Simon Dawson/Reuters

Senior British scientists have warned that a lack of long-term planning in the battle against Covid is leaving the nation vulnerable to major outbreaks of the disease for at least another year.

The rollout of vaccines currently under way would cut hospital admissions and deaths among the old and vulnerable, they said, but it would still leave many other people at risk of being infected and suffering from the long-term effects of the disease.

Even though millions of doses of vaccine are being administered, serious outbreaks of Covid-19 are likely to continue throughout the year and into next year. These issues should be the focus of careful planning now, the scientists warned.

“Having 20 million people vaccinated is likely to reduce numbers of cases but we must not forget that this is a highly transmissible virus and if we do not continue with social measures, it will soon whip round communities again and cause havoc,” said Liam Smeeth, professor of clinical epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

“I can understand the short-term panic that is going on at present as hospital cases rise so quickly but I am amazed at the sheer lack of long-term strategy there has been for dealing with Covid,” he told the Observer. “I can see no signs of any thinking about it.”

This view was backed by Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Edinburgh University. “This epidemic would have unfolded very differently and in a much happier way if we had accepted, back in February, that we were in this for the long term,” he said. “However, the view that it was a short-term problem prevailed.

“It was thought we could completely suppress the virus, and that is why we are in the mess that we are in now.”

The idea that the virus could be eradicated was a costly mistake, said Martin Hibberd of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. “We have to understand Covid-19 is going to become endemic. The virus will not disappear. We are not going to eradicate it. Even if every human on Earth was vaccinated, we would still be at risk of it coming back.”

Several other issues still have to be resolved, added Hibberd. These include concerns about how long vaccines provide protection and how new variants might evade vaccine protection. “We might be lucky and find the virus does not change very much and vaccine cover is not affected, causing the virus level to drop to low prevalence,” Hibberd said.

“However, the virus might turn out to be as good as influenza at changing its coat. In that case, we will end up having to make new vaccines and distribute them every year. We should be thinking about that problem now.”

The prospect of restrictions being enforced for many months was also raised by Anne Johnson, an epidemiologist at University College London. “In March, we are still going to be under restrictions which will have to be imposed for months after that. What happens in autumn will depend on our success in keeping the virus down over the summer,” she said.

“We will also need to analyse how much virus there is in the community and calculate what antibody levels have been triggered by natural infections and by vaccination. These are going to be very important in determining the spread of the virus next winter.”

Smeeth argued that social distancing measures could possibly have to continue until next winter and warned of the dangers of new virus mutations evading vaccine protection. “Sadly, I feel we are very far from being out of this epidemic,” he said. “It is possible the virus could mutate tomorrow to become harmless. That is not a totally naive hope.

“But having said that, so far all we have discovered are mutations that actually made it more infectious and that is something we should be preparing to deal with – though I don’t see much sign of that happening.”

Baby sharks emerge from egg cases earlier and weaker in oceans warmed by climate crisis

Graham Readfearn

A baby epaulette shark – an egg-laying shark that is unique to the Great Barrier Reef. New research found they spent up to 25 days less in their egg cases under higher ocean temperatures. Photograph: E Moothart

Baby sharks will emerge from their egg cases earlier and weaker as water temperatures rise, according to a new study that examined the impact of warming oceans on embryos.

About 40% of all shark species lay eggs, and the researchers found that one species unique to the Great Barrier Reef spent up to 25 days less in their egg cases under temperatures expected by the end of the century.

A Shark @alexxsheyn

The extra heat caused embryonic epaulette sharks to eat through their egg yolks faster and when they were born, the rising temperatures affected their fitness.

“This is a huge red flag for us,” said Dr Jodie Rummer, an associate professor at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University and a co-author on the study.

Weaker sharks were less efficient hunters, Rummer said, which could then have a knock-on effect across the coral reefs where they live, upsetting the balance of the ecosystem.

“Sharks are important as predators because they take out the weak and injured and keep the integrity of the population strong,” Rummer said. “Healthy coral reefs need healthy predators.”

Epaulette sharks grow to about one metre and live in the shallow waters of the Great Barrier Reef. Females lay leathery egg cases, known by some as a “mermaid’s purse”.

Researchers monitored 27 epaulette egg cases at the New England Aquarium in Boston. Some were reared in waters at 27C – a current average summer – and two other groups were reared at either 29C or 31C.

Because the egg cases are translucent, researchers can see the sharks developing and how quickly they are eating the egg yolk. Warmer temperatures saw them eat the yolk faster.

In normal temperatures, the sharks emerged from the egg cases after 125 days. But in 31C waters, they emerged after 100 days. The researchers also measured the fitness of the baby sharks, and found that it peaked at 29C but then fell sharply at 31C.

Lead author Carolyn Wheeler, also at James Cook University, said: “The hotter the conditions, the faster everything happened, which could be a problem for the sharks.”

She said the results of the study, published Tuesday in the journal Scientific Reports, presented a “worrying future” because many sharks were already under threat.

A study of tropical reef sharks released last year found they were likely to become functionally extinct on about 20% of reefs around the globe.

Rummer said: “This is just one species, but we have been studying them since 2012. They’re pretty tough because they have to endure fluctuating conditions on the reef flats that are really challenging already.”

She said studies looking at ocean acidification and falling oxygen levels found the epaulettes could withstand those conditions, “but temperature seems to be a big problem for them”.

“If they can’t hack it, then we have big problems. We have to emphasise the importance of curbing our reliance on fossil fuels because climate change is affecting even the toughest little sharks.”

Rummer said the study suggested there were three likely outcomes for egg-laying sharks as waters got warmer.

First, they could try and populate areas with cooler temperatures, but only if they could find the right habitat.

Second, they could adapt genetically to the warmer temperatures, but this was unlikely because sharks were slow to reproduce and slow to get to sexual maturity.

“There are not enough generations that could go by for that adaptation to take effect to keep up with the way we are changing the planet,” she said.

A third outcome, Rummer said, was “these species disappear off the planet”.

She said her team was now studying the impacts of warming oceans on pregnant female sharks to see how warmer waters affected them.

Nigeria cattle crisis: how drought and urbanisation led to deadly land grabs

Orji Sunday

A huge expansion of farming in Nigeria has cut access to grazing land for nomadic herders and fuelled violence. Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty

The death toll of animals and humans is mounting as herders seeking dwindling reserves of pasture clash with farmers

In February last year, Sunday Ikenna’s fields were green and lush. Then, one evening, a herd of cattle led into the farm by roving pastoralists crushed, ate, and uprooted the crops.

“I lost everything. The situation was sorrowful, watching another human being destroy your farm,” says Ikenna, a father of 10 who farms in Ukpabi-Nimbo in Enugu state, southern Nigeria. “I farmed a smaller portion this year because I am still scared of another invasion.”

Ikenna’s experience is not an isolated event. In the past few years there have been a growing number of skirmishes between farmers and cattle herders searching for pasture and water.

For many years the clashes were problematic, but the two groups usually managed to reach a mutual accommodation. But in the past two decades, the climate crisis has contributed to altering that old order, and what used to be a friendly arrangement has become a crisis marked by looting, raids, cattle rustling and premeditated killings.

In 2016, Ukpabi-Nimbo, Ikenna’s community, was attacked, allegedly by cattle herders, resulting in the death of 46 people, according to one local media report. “Nimbo will never be the same after that morning,” Ikenna says of the attack.

At the root of the crisis, according to experts, is Nigeria’s teeming cattle population, which has more than doubled from an estimated 9.2 million in 1981 to around 20 million, making it one of the world’s largest.

Nigeria’s cattle population has doubled since 1981, leading to a rise in clashes over water and grazing land. Photograph: Stefan Heunis/AFP/Getty

Nigeria’s human population has grown too, to about 200 million, the highest in Africa by far. This has led to cities sprawling ever larger and wider, in some cases into formerly designated cattle routes and reserves. Routes that dated back to the 1950s, in line with colonial arrangements, have either been overrun or dominated by new human settlements – pushing herders further into contested territories.

“Grazing space that should accommodate only 10 cattle is now being grazed by 50 or more.”

— Ifeanyi Ubah

In rural communities, smallholder farmers are claiming large swathes of grazing land. “It means that grazing space, for example, that should originally accommodate only 10 cattle is now being grazed by 50 or more,” says Ifeanyi Ubah, a cattle rancher based in eastern Nigeria.

Nigeria is, moreover, a crossroads for cattle from other countries: transhumance migrants from Cameroon, Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad routinely pass through in search of better climate, pasture and more plentiful water. Though there are fewer than 100 official border crossings into the country, Abba Moro, an ex-government official who headed the ministry of interior, was quoted as saying that there were more than 1,499 illegal entry routes into the country as of 2013.

Terrorist groups have become involved in the situation. Boko Haram has been accused of using money obtained from the sale of rustled cattle to fund its deadly operations. On one occasion, Boko Haram militants killed 19 herders as they attempted to steal their cattle. A rising number of attacks has led to the reported loss of two million cattle and the death of 600 herders, many of whom have been forced to vacate the fertile Lake Chad basin in search of new lands.

A Fulani herdsman tends a calf, Kaduna state. Such grazing reserves have been set aside for nomadic pastoralists to reduce conflict. Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty

But the climate crisis is the biggest factor driving tensions. Most parts of northern Nigeria have suffered severe desertification and drought. Mean annual rainfall in this region has dropped below 600mm, compared with 3,500mm in the south coast area.

This change threatens the livelihoods of around 40 million people, especially livestock and smallholder farmers. Large numbers of cattle herders are being forced to move from traditional grazing areas to central and southern Nigeria when dry periods start – a situation that heightens competition and heralds more clashes.

“While growing up, I saw trees, forest, rivers and streams in most parts of northern Nigeria. The grasses grew and it was more than enough for the cattle,” says Bala Ardo, one of the leaders of cattle herders in south-east Nigeria. “But it’s no more. The situation has forced the average herder to seek pasture and water in places they never would have visited in the past, as he struggles to find drinkable water for himself and family and then his animals.”

The government, meanwhile, has only taken piecemeal action. In 2018, the federal government proposed colonies for cattle and funded grazing camps across various states in the country. But local leaders were resistant, and fears grew in the south in particular that ethnic groups such as the Muslim Fulani would use the scheme to grab land. Some researchers estimate that the members of the Fulani ethnic group own 90% of Nigeria’s livestock.

As the climate crisis continues, the government has set up the National Livestock Transformation Plan, which aims to modernise the livestock sector through a series of phased interventions from 2018 to 2027. Ranches for breeding and processing will be created, and several pilot projects have already been established. But this plan, too, is encountering difficulties. According to Khalid Salisu, a journalist in one of the pilot project regions, “It doesn’t serve the needs of cattle herders adequately. The herders in the ranches are struggling to find enough water and pastures to keep their herds alive during the dry season.”

Kara cattle market in Lagos receives thousands of cows every week due to the huge consumption of meat in the Lagos area. Photograph: Florian Plaucheur/AFP/Getty

In the absence of effective solutions from the central government, states and communities are proposing various remedies. In Benue state, southern Nigeria, for example, legislation in 2017 banned open cattle grazing. The law required herders to rent or buy lands to host their ranches.

The heart of the problem is the need to persuade herders to give up treating land and water as a free resource. It will be difficult to persuade them to move to capital-intensive ranching, said Ubah.

“The herdsmen, for whom the policies are meant, should be directly involved.”

— Abubakar Sambo

Abubakar Sambo, the leader of the northern community in Enugu state, says the herders must be consulted before fresh initiatives are launched. “The policies received by cattle herders largely on radio and television cannot work. The herdsmen, for whom the policies are meant, should be directly involved.” He believes younger herders need to be educated and sent to study model ranching systems in other countries.

“What the herders have achieved [cattle population growth] despite all the challenges is remarkable. It shows the huge potential of the livestock sector,” says Ardo. “Imagine what the result could be if the government put the right structure and policies in place.”

Sign up for the Animals farmed monthly update to get a roundup of the best farming and food stories across the world and keep up with our investigations. You can send us your stories and thoughts at animalsfarmed@theguardian.com

Lessons from 2020: Reconnecting with nature, a force for good

Nick Clark

After the challenges of the last year, 2021 must be a year of climate action that helps us reshape and restore the planet and our place in it.

Muaz Kory/Al Jazeera]

As we stumble into 2021, it was salutary to read of an inspiring wildlife encounter experienced by the famous naturalist and broadcaster, Sir David Attenborough.

Now 94 years old, he has witnessed the planet’s most extraordinary animals thriving in their natural habitats in all the far corners of the world. But this happened on his own London doorstep.

Like many others, the pandemic has led to long periods confined at home, which meant Attenborough finally properly experienced the birdsong in the garden of his own home.

From spring through to autumn he sat outside and made a determined effort to identify every species he could hear. Thrushes, jays, blue tits and blackbirds.

Of course, this has not just been an experience for the world’s most renowned observer of wildlife. In a dispiriting year, our enforced reconnection with nature at home has been boon for many across the planet.

“A lot of people have suddenly realised what deep, profound joy can come from witnessing the rest of the world – the natural world,” Attenborough said in September.

“We realised our dependency, emotionally and intellectually, on nature in a way we haven’t before,” he said this month.

Seize the moment

That realisation is a powerful force to carry with us as we step into the opportunities of 2021. It reminds us that emerging from COVID-19, and all the attendant sadness, tragedy and confinement, can lead us to a better place. As Winston Churchill famously said: “If you’re going through hell, keep going.”

And hell it has been. As the pandemic raged, 2020 has also been the year of climate breakdown. Across the world heatwaves, hurricanes, floods and drought have been compounded by biblical plagues of locusts.

But the world’s attention has at last swivelled on to the problem of the climate emergency.

The year 2021 has to count, it has to be the year of action, to take us on the road to a sustainable and zero-carbon future.

Wildlife conservation

The lesson of our relationship with nature has brought into focus how its deterioration can lead to zoonotic diseases like COVID-19; and elsewhere it’s reminded us how we need to reshape the way we police and manage wildlife and its conservation – especially in Africa.

We know conservation works. Just this month, a small group of cheetahs were relocated to the Bangweulu Wetlands in Zambia, the first of their species to return to the unique community-owned wetland in almost a century.

And there has been an increase in the number of elephants in Kenya; over 34,000 now live there, more than double the number in 1989.

Plus, the Kenyan government estimates the number of lions living in the country has increased by 25 percent – from 2,000 in 2010 to 2,489 now.

Reimagine the future

But as we re-strategise for post-COVID recovery, there is a growing realisation that safeguarding the environment must be at the heart of development plans.

For example wildlife tourism in Africa must not be just the domain of the rich westerner.

“We need to promote domestic and regional tourism within Africa,” said Kaddu Sebunya of the African Wildlife Foundation. “It is high time we market Africa to Africans at affordable and flexible budgets that will encourage them to embrace their heritage.”

A grim year it has been. But it’s also been a time for reflection, reconnection and re-imagining a very different future, that can reshape and restore us and the planet we live and rely on.

Your environment round-up

1. Hottest year on record?: Last month was the second hottest November ever recorded. If December temperatures show a similar trend, 2020 is on track to be the warmest year the world has ever seen.

2. Ski resorts in eye of climate storm: Developers in Austria are meeting local resistance to plans to demolish part of the Alps to build a ski resort. This while a warming climate endangers the snowy region and the local way of life.

3. All the answers on climate change: What is the Paris Agreement? How much trouble is the earth in? To demystify global warming, here is a helpful list of 17 climate questions with some straightforward answers.

4. Call the cavalry: Police horses rescue inner-city garden: In London, a community garden could not find livestock to help stamp in autumn seeds. But they got help from the next best thing: police horses.

The final word

“We shall draw from the heart of suffering itself the means of inspiration and survival.”

— WINSTON CHURCHILL

Coronavirus variants and mutations: The science explained

Helen Briggs

The rapid spread of coronavirus variants has put the world on alert and triggered a new lockdown in the UK. What are these variants and why are they causing concern?

All viruses naturally mutate over time, and Sars-CoV-2 is no exception.

Since the virus was first identified a year ago, thousands of mutations have arisen.

The vast majority of mutations are "passengers" and will have little impact, says Dr Lucy van Dorp, an expert in the evolution of pathogens at University College London.

"They don't change the behaviour of the virus, they are just carried along."

• New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

• Are mutations making coronavirus more infectious?

But every once in a while, a virus strikes lucky by mutating in a way that helps it survive and reproduce.

"Viruses carrying these mutations can then increase in frequency due to natural selection, given the right epidemiological settings," Dr van Dorp says.

This is what seems to be happening with the variant that has spread across the UK, known as 202012/01, and a similar, but different variant, recently identified in South Africa (501.V2).

Getty Image: Hundreds of thousands of viral genomes have been analysed across the world

There is no evidence so far that either causes more severe disease, but the worry is that health systems will be overwhelmed by a rapid rise in cases.

In a rapid risk assessment of these "variants of concern", the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said they place increased pressure on health systems.

"Although there is no information that infections with these strains are more severe, due to increased transmissibility, the impact of Covid-19 disease in terms of hospitalisations and deaths is assessed as high, particularly for those in older age groups or with co-morbidities," the EU agency said.

The variants have different origins but share a mutation in a gene that encodes the spike protein, which the virus uses to latch on to and enter human cells.

• South Africa coronavirus variant: What's the risk?

• UK has two cases of variant found in South Africa

Scientists think this could be why they appear more infectious.

"The UK and South African virus variants have changes in the spike gene consistent with the possibility that they are more infectious," says Prof Lawrence Young at the University of Warwick.

But as Dr Jeff Barrett, director of the Covid-19 genomics initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Hinxton, UK, points out, it's the combination of what the virus is doing and what we're doing that determines how fast it spreads.

"With the new variant, the situation changes more quickly as restrictions are relaxed and tightened, and there is less room for error in controlling the spread," he says.

"We don't have any evidence, however, that the new variant can fundamentally evade masks, social distancing, or the other interventions - we just need to apply them more strictly."

Getty Image I The spike protein (foreground) enables the virus to enter and infect human cells

With vaccine roll-out underway, scientists are racing to understand the repercussions for vaccines, which are based on the spike protein sequence.

There is particular concern about the South Africa variant, which has several changes in the spike (S) protein.

Most experts think vaccines will still be effective, at least in the short term.

Dr Julian W Tang, a virologist at the University of Leicester, says vaccines can be modified to be "more close-fitting and effective against this variant in a few months".

"Meanwhile, most of us believe that the existing vaccines are likely to work to some extent to reduce infection/ transmission rates and severe disease against both the UK and South African variants - as the various mutations have not altered the S protein shape that the current vaccine-induced antibodies will not bind at all."

Scientists are carrying out laboratory studies to find out more about the variants. And they are tracking every move of the virus as it hopscotches around the world.

By taking a swab from an infected patient, the genetic code of the virus can be extracted and amplified before being "read" using a sequencer.

The string of letters, or nucleotides, allows genomes and mutations to be compared.

"It is thanks to these efforts, and UK testing laboratories, that the UK variant has been flagged so quickly as a potential cause of concern," Dr van Dorp says.

Prof Julian Hiscox, chair in infection and global health at the University of Liverpool, says that, through the efforts of scientists to sequence the virus, "we've got a really good handle on variants that emerge".

In the short-term, only the harshest of lockdowns will reduce case numbers, he says.

"What lockdown does is reduce the number of people with the virus and reduce the amount of virus out there and that's a good thing."

But in the long term, Prof Hiscox suspects, we may face a scenario like flu, where new vaccines are developed and administered every year.

"The problem is, the more variants we get, the greater the chance the virus will be able to escape part of the vaccine - and this may reduce [its] efficacy," he says.

Getty Image I Mink outbreaks are a "spillover" from the human pandemic

Trump administration pollution rule strikes final blow against environment

The Environmental Protection Agency has completed one of its last major rollbacks under the Trump administration, changing how it considers evidence of harm from pollutants in a way that opponents say could cripple future public-health regulation.

Andrew Wheeler announced what he calls the
‘Strengthening Transparency in Regulatory Science’ rule to a conservative thinktank on Tuesday. Photograph: Alex Brandon/AP

The EPA administrator, Andrew Wheeler, formally announced the completion of what he calls the “Strengthening Transparency in Regulatory Science” rule in a Zoom appearance before Competitive Enterprise Institute, a conservative thinktank on Tuesday. The EPA completed the final rule last week.

The new rule would require the release of raw data from public-health studies whose findings the EPA uses in determining the danger of an air pollutant, toxic chemical or other threat. Big public-health studies that studied the anonymized results of countless people have been instrumental in setting limits on toxic substances, including in some of the nation’s most important clean-air protections.

Some industry and conservative groups have long pushed for what they called the transparency rule. Opponents say the aim was to handicap future regulation and public health interventions. In an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal on Monday night, Wheeler said the change was in the interest of transparency

“If the American people are to be regulated by interpretation of these scientific studies, they deserve to scrutinize the data as part of the scientific process and American self-government,” Wheeler wrote.

But critics say the new rule could force disclosure of the identities and details of individuals in public-health studies, jeopardizing medical confidentiality and future studies. Academics, scientists, universities, public health and medical officials, environmental groups and others have spoken out at public hearings and written to oppose the change.

“This really seems to be an attempt by Wheeler to permanently let major polluters trample on public health,” said Benjamin Levitan, a senior attorney with the Environmental Defense Fund advocacy group. “It ties the hands of future administrations in how they can protect the public health.”

The change could limit not only future public health protections, but “force the agency to revoke decades of clean air protections”, Chris Zarba, former head of the EPA’s science advisory board, said in a statement.

Wheeler, in his Wall Street Journal piece, said the new limits would not compel the release of any personal data or “categorically” exclude any scientific work.
The EPA has been one of the most active agencies in carrying out Donald Trump’s mandate to roll back regulations that conservative groups have identified as being unnecessary and burdensome to industry.

Many of the changes face court challenges and can be reversed by executive action or by lengthier bureaucratic process. But undoing them would take time and effort by the incoming Biden administration, which also has ambitious goals to fight climate-damaging fossil fuel emissions and lessen the impact of pollutants on lower-income and minority communities.

Child labour, toxic leaks: the price we could pay for a greener future

Robin McKie

Digging for cobalt in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where 60% of the world’s supply is found. Miners often breathe in cobalt-laden dust, which can prove fatal. Photograph: Sebastian Meyer/Corbis via Getty Images

Our mission to create cleaner living using natural resources could itself cause widespread environmental harm, scientists now war

The battle to stave off Earth’s looming climate crisis is driving engineers to develop hosts of new green technologies. Wind and solar plants are set to replace coal and gas power stations, while electric cars oust petrol and diesel vehicles from our roads. Slowly our dependance on fossil fuels is set to diminish and so ease global heating.

But scientists warn there will be an environmental price to pay for this drive to create a world powered by green technology. Prospecting for the materials to construct these devices, then mining them, could have very serious ecological consequences and major impacts on biodiversity, they say.

“The move towards net zero carbon emissions is going to create new stresses on our planet, at least in the short term,” said Prof Richard Herrington, head of earth sciences at the Natural History Museum, London. “We are going to have to learn how to consider profit and loss with regard to ecosystems just as we do now when we are considering economic issues.”

Metals such as lithium and cobalt provide examples of the awkward issues that lie ahead, said Herrington. Both elements are needed to make lightweight rechargeable batteries for electric cars and for storing power from wind and solar plants. Their production is likely to increase significantly over the next decade – and that could cause serious ecological problems.

Miners in the DRC pull up a bag of cobalt – vital for the production of rechargeable batteries. Photograph: Sebastian Meyer/Corbis/Getty Images

In the case of cobalt, 60% of the world’s supply comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo where large numbers of unregulated mines use children as young as seven as miners. There they breathe in cobalt-laden dust that can cause fatal lung ailments while working tunnels that are liable to collapse.

“Men, women and children are working without even the most basic protective equipment such as gloves and face masks,” said Mark Dummett of Amnesty International, which has investigated the cobalt-mining crisis in DRC. “In one village we visited, people showed us how the water in the local stream that they drank was contaminated by the discharge of waste from a mineral processing plant.”

Then there is the issue of lithium mining. World production is set to soar over the next decade. Yet mining is linked to all sorts of environmental headaches. In the so-called Lithium Triangle of South America – made up of Chile, Argentina and Bolivia – vast quantities of water are pumped from underground sources to help extract lithium from ores, and this has been linked to the lowering of ground water levels and the spread of deserts. Similarly in Tibet, a toxic chemical leak from the Ganzizhou Rongda Lithium mine poisoned the local Lichu river in 2016 and triggered widespread protests in the region.

Nor will these ecological problems be confined to specialist metals, analysts have pointed out. They say that rising demands for traditional materials such as cement – for building hydro-electric dams – or for copper, to provide cables to link wind and solar farms to cities and to build electric cars, could also cause widespread environmental damage unless care is taken.

Our growing appetite for copper provides a striking illustration of the issues. Thousands of tonnes are needed to create wind or solar power devices while electric vehicles use two or three times more copper than those powered by a diesel or petrol engine. As a result, the world’s appetite for copper is likely to jump by more than 300% by 2050, according to one recent report.

A Volkswagen ID.3, part of the company’s efforts to break into the burgeoning electric car market. Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

“You need tens of kilograms more copper for an electric car compared with one with a petrol engine,” said Herrington. “That means, if you want to turn all the UK’s 31m cars into electric vehicles you would require about 12% of the world’s entire copper output – just for Britain. That is an unrealistic demand, given that we are hoping to be making electric cars only within a decade.”

Harrington said it was inevitable that there would an expansion in mining and in providing energy for refining ores which, combined, would have real environmental impacts. “We are going to have to do that in a way that creates profits but also serves people and the planet.”

In addition to these issues, the proposed expansion of nuclear power in the UK – to satisfy demand no longer met by coal or gas plants – is likely to lead to the creation of increased amounts of nuclear waste. However, the UK still has no method for safely storing nuclear waste underground and relies on keeping highly radioactive remnants from power plant operations above ground. These stores may have to be expanded significantly in future.

One solution put forward to these green technology problems would be to limit the exploitation of resources on land and turn instead to the sea to gather the materials we need. Several promising marine sources have been pinpointed, with the most attention focusing on metal nodules which litter some parts of the ocean floor. These potato-sized globs of mineral are rich in copper, cobalt, manganese and other metals. According to the International Seabed Authority, some deposits contain millions of tonnes of cobalt, copper and manganese.

As a result, several organisations are now surveying the most promising of these deposits, in particular the Clarion-Clipperton Zone in international waters in the Pacific Ocean. These could be hoovered up using robot submersibles that would criss-cross the 4.5m sq km that make up the zone.

However, recent research by marine scientists have also revealed that despite the Clarion-Clipperton Zone’s depth – it lies between 4,000 and 5,500 metres below the surface – the ocean floor there is also rich is sea-life. One survey, in 2017, found more than 30 species new to science living on the zone’s abyssal plain, most of them xenophyophores – considered the world’s largest living single-celled organisms.

Hoovering up the nodules could devastate these life forms, marine scientists have warned. “At present, we still don’t have enough data about the sea floor to be sure what the impact would be of mining there,” said Adrian Glover, a deep-sea ecology researcher at the Natural History Museum.

“However, when we do, it’s going to be a big question for society. If these are environments rich in biodiversity that could be easily damaged, will it be better or worse to exploit them compared with exploiting our rainforests on land? That could be a very difficult issue to resolve.”

Activist Greta Thunberg at 18: ‘I’m not telling anyone what to do’

Trevor Marshallsea

Environmental campaigner Greta Thunberg says she has stopped buying new clothes and holds no grudges against people who fly or decide to have children.

She said her ideal birthday present would be for people to do more to help the planet

(AFP via Getty Images)

In an interview to mark her 18th birthday, the often feisty Swedish activist offered a relaxed view when asked about celebrities who trumpet their environmental awareness yet contribute to carbon emissions by using passenger aircraft.

She did say, however, such figures could be accused of hypocrisy.

“I don't care,” Ms Thunberg, who usually travels overseas by boat, told The Sunday Times magazine.

“I'm not telling anyone else what to do, but there is a risk when you are vocal about these things and don't practise as you preach, then you will become criticised for that and what you are saying won't be taken seriously.”

Asked about campaigners who say having children is irresponsible at a time when the planet is under pressure, Ms Thunberg said she did not consider it selfish to have children, adding it was “not the people who are the problem, it is our behaviour”.

She said her ideal birthday present would be for people to do more to help the planet - though a physical gift of new headlights for her bicycle would also be welcomed.

But unlike many teenagers, the desire for new clothes is not on her list, due to the environmental impact of clothing production and demand.

“I don't need new clothes,” she says. “I know people who have clothes, so I would ask them if I could borrow them or if they have something they don't need any more. The worst-case scenario, I guess I'll buy second-hand.”

Ms Thunberg also admitted to guilt over the pressures brought on her family - including death threats - through her three years in the public eye. She did not care what people said about her online, but “when it impacts the people around you then it becomes something else”.

Jane Goodall: 'Change is happening. There are many ways to start moving in the right way'

Jonathan Watts

Jane Goodall: ‘Our disrespect for animals creates conditions for the emergence of zoonotic diseases.’ Photograph: David Levene/The Guardian

The primatologist and ecological activist on why population isn’t the cause of climate change, and why she’s encouraging optimism

Jane Goodall is a primatologist who is regarded as one of the world’s leading authorities on chimpanzees. She has spent 60 years studying the chimps that live in the Gombe Stream national park and she is a prominent advocate, via several foundations, of protecting the great apes and their habitats. She has been presented with awards by the UN and various governments for her conservation and environmental work. She appears in the Netflix documentary The Beginning of Life 2.

You warned last June that humanity will be finished if we don’t make drastic changes in response to the coronavirus pandemic and the climate crisis. Have you seen any indication of that drastic change?
The window is closing. Business as usual – using up natural resources faster and faster – can’t carry on. In some cases, we are already using resources faster than they can be replenished. And we can see the consequences. Look at climate change. It is not something that might happen in the future; we are already seeing terrible hurricanes and floods and fires. It is building up into an inferno. When you think globally like that, it is very, very depressing.

Do you feel that the pandemic has shifted perceptions, or created more of a sense of urgency?
Maybe Covid has given a push that will make a difference. The most important lesson from this pandemic is that we need a new relationship with nature and animals. Our disrespect for animals creates conditions for the emergence of zoonotic diseases. You can see that same disrespect in factory farms, bushmeat and wildlife markets and the illegal wildlife trade. About 75% of all newly emerged diseases in humans are zoonotic.

What more needs to be done?
We need to move to a more sustainable relationship with the natural world. We need a greener economy. If countries move away from fossil fuels and subsidise clean, green energy that will create a lot of jobs. If you plant trees in a city it has enormous benefits – it cools the temperature, cleans the air, stabilises the soil against flooding and improves psychological and physical health, to mention only a few. We also need to cut down on waste. I grew up in the war, when food was rationed and you did not throw anything out. We need to value food more – as aboriginal people do.

Jane Goodall and inquisitive friend, Gombe Stream Research Centre, Tanzania, January 1972. Photograph: Corbis

Do you think politicians and the public are focused enough on this challenge?
As damage is coming to a peak, awareness is coming to a peak. But it does not help to focus exclusively on the problems. Yes, the media must point out the harm we are inflicting. But they should give more space to all the amazing restoration programmes happening around the world – that gives people hope and they are more likely to do their bit. If you lose hope, why bother?

Where do you find cause for hope?
Change is happening. Millions are switching to wind and solar energy, clearing upstreams or picking up rubbish. Consumers are influencing the way business does its work. I am always meeting amazing people doing great projects to allow biodiversity to creep back. A lot of it in China. There are many different ways to start moving in the right way.

How about at the national and international level? The Global Biodiversity Outlook 5 report found the international community did not fully achieve any of the 20 Aichi biodiversity targets agreed in Japan in 2010 to slow the loss of the natural world. Can we expect anything better at the next big UN biodiversity meeting in Kunming, China, next year?
All I have seen, to be honest, is more decision makers talking about change and making plans, but not doing enough to make it happen. At these big meetings, there is so much talk and so little follow-up action. But now we are seeing more action among the youth. Children are standing up and influencing their parents, business leaders and politicians. Voting, in democracies, can make a big difference.

You and David Attenborough both appear to be more active than ever. But has your approach changed? You have tended to focus on individual responsibility in the past. Is it now time for something more radical, for system change?
I think we need many different approaches. There are instances when violent tactics are necessary to make people aware - like the anti-slavery movement. But violence can be counterproductive. I think people must change from within. If children point at dominant males and say “you are bad and we demand that you change”, the response may well be “I won’t be lectured by a young person”. My way is to tell stories, trying to reach the heart. Too often people give lip service to change but carry on with business as usual.

Our organisation, Roots & Shoots, works at the grassroots level with youth. The movement is growing very fast - all over North and South America, Africa, Europe and Asia, including over 1,000 groups in China. There are also new groups in the Middle East. Turkey and Israel, and I want to spread it further. We are linking youth from different countries together and finding partner organisations. It is really important to grow as the programme is giving young people hope. This is needed badly as we have caused so much environmental damage since we began in 1991. And without hope youth falls into apathy and does nothing. Many of the early Roots & Shoots members are now in leadership positions.

“We’re seeing the consequences of the idea that there can be unlimited economic development with finite natural resources.”

But this is not just a matter of changing individual behaviour. Aren’t there are deeper causes in the way the global economy is organised?
We are seeing the consequences of the crazy idea that there can be unlimited economic development on a planet with finite natural resources and a growing population. Decisions are made for short-term gain at the expense of protecting the environment for the future. Now, the world’s population is estimated at over 7 billion people and it is expected to be closer to 10 billion by 2050. If we carry on with business as usual what is going to happen? To be clear, the main problem is not population growth. I have never said that, although George Monbiot claims that I did, which is disappointing because I have always admired him. It is one of three main problems – the other two are our greedy lifestyle, our reckless burning of fossil fuels, the demand for meat, poverty – and, of course, we must also tackle corruption.

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To what extent do you feel that traditional conservation needs to change?
We have to eliminate poverty. Because if people are really poor, they will destroy the environment because they have to feed themselves and their families. In 1990, I flew over Gombe national park [in Tanzania] and I was shocked to see the change. During the 1960s, it had been part of a vast equatorial forest. By 1990, Gombe was just a little island of trees, surrounded by land that had been stripped bare. It was then that I realised unless we could help people make a living without destroying their environment we couldn’t save chimps or forests. So we helped in many ways including providing scholarships for girls and offering microcredit opportunities, especially to women. It’s worked. If you fly over Gombe today, you don’t see those bare hills; the forest has come back. As women’s education improves, family sizes tend to drop. Women want to educate children. They don’t want to be birth machines.

In the Netflix documentary The Beginning of Life 2, you and many other biologists, conservationists and psychologists stress the mental health and social benefits that can come from a close connection to the natural world, and warn of the dangers that this is being lost among a younger, more urban generation.
When I was growing up, we did not even have television, so we immersed ourselves in books and nature. Children today have less time for that because they are fascinated by iPhones, laptops and video games. Also many more children grow up in cities, surrounded by concrete. The important thing is to get them into nature – the younger the better. In the documentary, you see the expression of wonder on a child’s face – a three-year-old boy watching a snail glide along. He suddenly picked it up, ran and put it on a window pane to watch it from the other side. This kind of experience is very, very important. It is only when you care for nature that you protect it. The film is very inspiring.

How has lockdown affected people’s relationship with nature?
In some cases, it has meant closer contact, but that depends on whether people have a garden or live near parks or green areas where they can walk. So many poor people were confined to the concrete jungle.

And how has it affected you?
I miss the contact with people, my friends. But I have adapted. I used to be travelling 300 days a year and meeting people face to face. Since I have been in lockdown, I do everything virtually and have reached millions more people in many more countries. So there is a silver lining. I try to find the silver lining in everything. We mustn’t lose hope.

Anything you would like to add?
You remind me of my favourite chimp, David Greybeard.

Reasons to be hopeful in 2021

Patrick Barkham, Richard Godwin, Amelia Tait & Jamie Waters

2020 has been a difficult year, but there are some glints of light in the gloom. From nature-friendly farms to anti-ageing worms and even a way of conjuring vodka out of thin air, here are a few nuggets of good cheer to look forward to in 2021

‘2020 has forced a recalibration of ambitions and expectations on a personal level’: Professor Peter Frankopan says this year will, largely, be good for us. Photograph: Jan Von Holleben/Trunk Archive

A vaccine for HIV: ‘This is an incredibly exciting result’

The Covid-19 vaccinations captured the world’s attention in November yet, around the same time, researchers behind a trial known as HPTN 084 also published spectacular results. The trial, which took place across seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa, found that an eight-weekly injection with a drug called cabotegravir was more effective than daily medication in an oral pill form in preventing HIV in women.

An estimated 38 million people in the world are currently living with HIV – two thirds of these people live in Africa. In South Africa, more than 62% of the 7.5 million adults living with HIV are women. While a pre-exposure prophylactic pill is currently available for people at risk, the HPTN 084 trial – undertaken by the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) and partly funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation – found cabotegravir to be 89% more effective.

“The injection overcame many of the challenges that women in the region experience with taking a daily pill,” trial chair Dr Sinéad Delany-Moretlwe says, explaining that stigma often prevents people taking their pill consistently. “Partners may feel insecure because they think it means their partners are going to be unfaithful and just generally women experience judgments about being sexually active,” she explains.

Delany-Moretlwe, who works at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, says that the injection is “discreet and convenient and not visible” and therefore “overcomes barriers” for many women in African countries.

The HPTN 084 trial involved 3,223 cisgender women ranging in age from 18 to 45. Only four women who received the injection acquired HIV compared to 34 women who took the pill.

“I don’t think I’ve ever seen a result like this for HIV prevention in women,” says Delany-Moretlwe. “This is a product that can be used by men and women, when it’s licensed, potentially, so I think that’s what’s exciting.”

“I’ve worked in HIV prevention for a long time and I know we’ve had more disappointments than successes,” Delany-Moretlwe says, but “it’s an incredibly exciting result. With introduction and use of the injection, we can hopefully begin to see the reduction and possibly elimination of HIV acquisition in young women in our region.” Amelia Tait

Bristol: the people behind Britain’s greenest big city

Clean and serene: Corn Street in the heart of Bristol. Photograph: Sam Frost/The Guardian

Imagine a city where power is generated from turbines and waterways. Where cycle paths, green space, allotments, veg boxes and vegan restaurants are plentiful, buses are powered by human waste and streets are closed so kids can play. It’s not a fantasy. It’s happening today in Bristol, a city increasingly feted for pioneering environmentally friendly urban life.

The first city in the world to declare a climate emergency and Britain’s first European Green Capital, it is consistently top of various green matrices. This year it was judged the most environmentally friendly big British city based on high recycling rates (47.4%), generous green space (29 hectares), council seats held by the Green party (11) and carbon emissions and gas consumption.

A green virtuous circle appears to be whirling in the West Country, as environmentally conscious citizens urge their leaders to make more ambitious climate commitments. In 2014, Britain’s first “poo bus” was launched, its journeys between Bristol and Bath entirely powered by human and food waste.

Bristol’s leaders have looked further ahead than most. Back in 2007, the city began powering its 34,000 street lights with green electricity and, by 2014/15, it had reduced its emissions by 38% compared with 2005. The Bristol Energy Co-operative’s most exciting new scheme proposes using the water flowing through Netham weir in the city to generate electricity.

A community team working at the Lawrence Weston housing estate gained planning permission for the tallest turbine of its kind in England, which will power all 3,500 homes in the area. Other schemes include a phone app using thermal imaging to help 70% of residents who struggle to pay their electricity bills identify the energy efficiency of their homes. Traders then fix problems for an affordable fee. Mark Pepper, project development manager of Ambition Lawrence Weston, says “from being seen as a middle-class problem” paying attention to the climate crisis is now seen as a way of investing in the future.

As well as being a middle-class concern, environmental issues have typically been championed by people who are overwhelmingly white. This, too, is changing in Bristol, the first major city in Europe to elect a black mayor, Marvin Rees.

“Someone said, ‘I hear the voice, I hear what the voice says but I don’t hear my voice’,” says Carlton Romaine, coordinator of the Black and Green Ambassadors project in Bristol, which aims to create a new generation of environmental leaders from black, Asian and minority ethnic communities. “We want to empower the BAME community because we’re always at the bottom and we’re usually add-ons,” says Romaine. “We want to be leading green projects or at least a partner, not just somebody that is asked to do something.” Patrick Barkham

Vodka made out of thin air: toasting the planet’s good health

The Air Company, based in New York, makes vodka from two ingredients: carbon dioxide and water. Each bottle that’s produced takes carbon dioxide out of the air. It has been chosen as one of the finalists in the $20m NRG COSIA Carbon XPRIZE, which aims to incentivise innovation in the field of carbon capture, utilisation and storage.

The company’s chief technology officer, Stafford Sheehan, hit upon the idea while trying to create artificial photosynthesis as a chemistry PhD student at Yale. Photosynthesis, you may remember from chemistry at school, is the process by which plants use sunlight to convert CO2 into energy. For 2bn years, plants were equal to the task of balancing the carbon in the atmosphere – but now we are emitting it at a rate beyond what nature can restore with photosynthesis. Hence the interest in carbon capture. “Our aim is to take CO2 that would otherwise be emitted into the atmosphere and transform it into things that are better for the planet,” says Sheehan

A nice cold martini is undoubtedly better for the planet than global warming. Unfortunately, however, it would require 11 quadrillion Air Vodka Martinis to make any kind of significant impact. But Sheehan hopes to make alcohol for a variety of different applications. “Ethanol, methanol and propanol are three of the most-produced chemicals in the world, all alcohols,” he says. “Plastics, resins, fragrances, cleaners, sanitisers, bio-jet fuel… almost all start from alcohol. If we can make the base alcohol for all of those from carbon that would otherwise be emitted, that would make a major impact.”

Air Company currently captures its CO2 from old-fashioned alcohol production: concentrated CO2 rising from a standard fuel-alcohol fermentation stack is transformed into vodka. That’s a fairly boutique product. However, power stations are much more plentiful sources. “You can burn natural gas, then capture the CO2 you’re emitting, and that feeds you the carbon dioxide,” says Sheehan. “That’s what we’d like to do and that’s where you can do it at scale.” Richard Godwin

Boyan Slat, founder of Ocean Cleanup, wears sunglasses made from reclaimed plastic waste

Cleaning up the ocean: ‘Things that seem insoluble can be solved’

The Pacific Trash Vortex is the largest accumulation of rubbish in the world. Ocean currents mean the Eastern Garbage Patch near Japan is locked in a perpetual exchange of tyres, toothbrushes, discarded Minion toys, etc, with the Western Garbage Patch, between California and Hawaii. It spans more than 1m sq miles. Most of it is plastic: an estimated 87,000 metric tonnes broken down into 1.8tn tiny pieces.

In 2012, a Dutch teenager named Boyan Slat gave a Ted Talk that had grown out of a school project. He revealed a plan to install a series of floating platforms that would harness those ocean currents and concentrate the rubbish in tighter areas, making it easier to remove. He founded the company Ocean Cleanup in 2013 and raised over $40m in funding.

“There isn’t an instruction manual for doing this,” says Slat when I connect with him over video link – no longer a wide-eyed kid but a shaggy haired 25-year-old.

After much research and trial and error, the company is now concentrating most of its efforts on rivers, stopping at source most of the plastic before it can get into the oceans. However, Ocean Cleanup achieved a significant milestone last year by extracting plastic from the ocean and turning it into something useful: sunglasses, yours for $199.

The frames only represent a drop in the ocean in terms of plastic extracted, but Slat hopes they will create a virtuous circle. Each pair will fund the clean-up of up to 24 football fields of plastic from the Garbage Patch. “It would be quite poetic if we could fund the clean-up by recycling the plastic we take out.”

Slat sees 2021 as an inflection point – the moment to deliver on its promises. “We have the tools to do it now. We have applied the lessons we’ve learned. Now it comes to actually doing it at scale.”

What gives him hope? “The willingness of the world to address the issue. When we started, I thought the main difficulty would be people not caring – and the technology would be relatively easy. Actually it’s the opposite. But that makes me hopeful that when all the tools are there, it will actually happen. It is possible, even in this time when everything seems so polarised, to tackle problems through all the things humans are good at: entrepreneurship, ingenuity, creativity. It can bring people together. Things that seem insoluble can be solved.” Richard Godwin

Saved from extinction: the rare species back from the brink

A good year for kakapos: Sinbad, a male kakapo, curiously peering from the bushes during the day. Photograph: Nature Picture Library/Alamy Stock Photo

Antarctic blue whales Blue whales were abundant off South Georgia before industrial whaling arrived in 1904. By the 1970s they had vanished from the surrounding seas. Between 1998 and 2018 there was only a single sighting. This year, that changed: there have been 58 blue whale sightings.

Kakapo The kakapo is the world’s heaviest, longest-lived parrot – a flightless, nocturnal creature which, like New Zealand’s other flightless birds, was imperilled by the mammalian predators introduced by humans. Years of conservation efforts had saved it from extinction, but then the species was struck down by the respiratory disease aspergillosis. Stricken birds were helicoptered to Auckland and treated in a human hospital with a paediatric nebuliser. The virus was contained and the population now stands at 213.

Beavers It seemed like 2020 was the year every grand estate obtained a licence to release beavers into large, fenced enclosures. The beaver is increasingly valued as a natural flood-defence engineer, with its dams storing water upstream and slowing the flow of flood water, protecting towns downstream. Its ponds and channels have also been shown to benefit fish, amphibians, insects and birds. This year, the government in England allowed beavers unofficially released in the River Otter in Devon to stay, paving the way for its return as a natural native species, 400 years after being hunted to extinction.

Great fox spider The critically endangered spider was feared to be extinct in Britain. But the nocturnal 5cm arachnid, known for its speed, agility and ambush hunting, has been rediscovered on a Ministry of Defence site in Surrey. Mike Waite from Surrey Wildlife Trust rediscovered the spider after being allowed in to survey the area over a two-year period. MoD sites are often wildlife havens with land undisturbed by the general public.

Hen harrier A fine spring and summer across the UK meant that voles bred prolifically in the wild, in turn helping birds of prey enjoy successful breeding years. The endangered hen harrier enjoyed its best breeding year for nearly two decades. Nineteen nests produced 60 chicks. Patrick Barkham

The future of farming? The Mayhew’s dairy farm. Photograph: Phil Fisk/The Observer

Regenerative farming: a return to nature-friendly agriculture

Four years ago, Rebecca Mayhew lost her job, then the pigs on the farm she owned with her husband Stuart were plagued by health problems due to the way they were intensively farmed. The couple became uneasy about the animals’ welfare and the health of their conventionally farmed land, so they sold their pigs and took a holiday in Scotland, where Rebecca fell in love with a friend’s Jersey cows.

Four years on, their once-conventional arable and pig farm is a very different beast. The Mayhews have embraced regenerative farming, a way of working that aims to fix the food production system by restoring degraded soils and reducing and ultimately eliminating artificial fertilisers and pesticides.

The revolution at the Mayhews’ 500-acre South Norfolk farm began with a small herd of Jersey cows. Unlike a traditional dairy, where calves are removed from their mothers after a few hours and fed formula, they chose to produce milk naturally, allowing calves to feed from their mothers, who are milked just once a day. “Looking into what’s good for the cows, and what’s good for us led us into looking at what’s good for the land,” says Rebecca.

The Mayhews have jettisoned the farming orthodoxies of the past half-century. Ploughing is sacrilege: it erodes fertile top-soil. Decades of relentless scaling-up is turned on its head: big fields are turned into smaller fields – hedges replanted to stop erosion and provide shade and fodder for the cattle. Grazing fields that would normally be sown with a monoculture of rye-grass are instead seeded with up to 20 species to provide healthier food for the cattle (which, in turn, need fewer expensive veterinary drugs). Arable fields are planted with “cover crops”: so clovers are planted alongside barley or oats. Clovers are “nitrogen-fixing” plants that take nitrogen from the atmosphere and add it to soil, so it can be used by other plants – a free fertiliser and soil-improver.

“Modern conventional farming is a constant war with nature. It’s about killing everything so one plant can grow,” says Mayhew. “We need to mimic nature and work with it.”

The Mayhews’ new way of farming is nature-friendly so they’ve been able to take advantage of government subsidies for wildlife-enhancing farming. British farmers know that generous EU farm subsidies are coming to an end and farm payments in the future are likely to be more dependent on farms providing environmental “goods” such as healthy soils and clean water. Patrick Barkham

A new way of seeing: live video signals are sent to the brain’s visual cortex. Photograph: Science Photo Library/Alamy Stock Photo

Bringing sight to the blind: developing a new artificial eye

Between the ages of 42 and 57, Bernardeta Gómez from Spain couldn’t see a thing. But then scientists embedded a port into her skull and after 16 years of blindness, Gómez was able to see again. It was all thanks to the innovations of Eduardo Fernandez, director of neuroengineering at the University of Miguel Hernández in Elche, Spain.

Fernandez is working on a unique cure for blindness – instead of developing an artificial retina, he has created a device that restores sight by feeding signals directly to the brain. As the majority of blind people have damage to the nerve system connecting the retina and the brain, Fernandez’s work could help more people than developing an artificial eye.

Fernandez has compared his prosthesis to a pacemaker or cochlear implants, both of which are pieces of electronic equipment that have been widely implanted into humans for more than 60 years. His system is made of a small camera attached to a pair of slightly outsized black glasses. This relays live video to a computer, which translates the footage into electronic signals. These signals are sent through a cable to a 100-electrode implant in the brain’s visual cortex (hence the port in the back of Gómez’s head), which deliver currents directly to the brain, producing sight.

Among the many novel terms that have entered our lives lately – “lockdown,” “herd immunity,” “flatten the curve” – one is decidedly more glamorous. In November it was suggested that “Dollying” should become shorthand for referencing an occasion when a celebrity does something that makes you love them even more.

This was in response to the revelation that Dolly Parton had contributed $1m towards the Moderna Covid vaccine, news which was met with euphoria as we collectively – and only slightly melodramatically – exclaimed that Dolly had “saved the world”.

Yet before we add “Dollying” to the dictionary, let’s consider the competition. How about “Doing a Rashford”, in reference to Man Utd’s striker Marcus Rashford forcing the UK government to confront child poverty and reinstate free meals for underprivileged schoolchildren?

Gómez was able to see a low-resolution representation of objects rendered by white-yellow dots and shapes. She could see lights, letters and shapes at 10 pixels by 10 pixels. Although she couldn’t make out human faces, she was able to play a simple computer game “piped directly into her brain”. Unfortunately, the implant had to be removed after a year. “The body’s immune system starts to break down the electrodes and surround them with scar tissue,” explains Fernandez, “which eventually weakens the signal.”

He hopes to continue testing his bionic eye while figuring out ways to stop the implant degrading. Ultimately, the prosthesis will be wireless. Amelia Tait

Doing a Rashford: a new shorthand for celebrity philanthropy, in light of the footballer’s campaigning against child poverty. Photograph: Ash Donelon/Getty Images

Celebrity philanthropy: when the great are also really good

“Riri-ing” could also work, following Rihanna’s donation of $2m to charities supporting domestic-violence victims during lockdown. And then there’s “Pitting” (I sense this cute word game has now run its course), after Brad Pitt was spotted delivering groceries to disadvantaged LA households. The internet squealed with delight.

These acts stand out in a year in which celebrities have been stripped of red carpets and live concerts and rendered impotent, left to spout platitudes over social media.

Philanthropy has become common ever since Bob Geldof’s Live Aid concerts for famine-stricken Ethiopia in the 1980s, and is now so widespread it’s “almost part of the job description of an A-list star,” says Jo Littler, sociology professor at London’s City University. It is, she adds, “a form of brand promotion”.

This means we have an ingrained scepticism when we see a celebrity doing a good thing: is it genuine or a PR play? Evan Ross Katz, a fashion writer and podcast host, says acts resonate when, instead of “affixing themselves to something because it’s trendy,” the celeb has a personal connection to the cause. Such was the case with Rashford, who subsisted on free school meals growing up, or ASAP Rocky, who last month delivered meals to the homeless shelter in New York where he and his mum sought refuge when he was young.

Gestures needn’t be grand. Ryan Reynolds recently sent 300 parkas to a school in the remote Inuit community of Arctic Bay after the town’s mayor tweeted that they were desperate for winter gear. Justin Timberlake bought a wheelchair-friendly van for a teenager with cerebral palsy. And Taylor Swift’s longstanding custom of helping out regular folks continued when she paid for an 18-year-old to study maths at a UK university.

We don’t need our celebs to be decent people but when they are – and in a way that isn’t overly forced and holier-than-thou – it provides a much-needed boost to our battered morale. Jamie Waters

Anti-ageing: the worms that may help us live longer, healthier lives

At first glance, Jarod Rollins’s work looks like magic. In a cove on an island off the coast of Maine, Rollins spends his days examining transparent worms in the hopes of extending human life. Of course, it’s not really magic, it’s science: Rollins works at the MDI Biological Laboratory, a non-profit research institution, and is motivated by a desire to “help people age more gracefully or even turn back the ageing process”. In July 2019, Rollins and 10 other researchers from across the globe made a monumental breakthrough: they increased the lifespan of some Caenorhabditis elegans worms by 500%.

The reason these unassuming roundworms are frequently used in ageing research is because they share many of their genes with humans. An ordinary C elegans worm will live for three to four weeks – Rollins and his team kept them alive for months.

“If we do make a discovery in C elegans and find a gene that helps regulate the rate at which they age, there is a good chance that that research is going to apply directly or indirectly to humans,” he explains. “I’m not in the business of making worms live longer,” he laughs, “I want to make people live longer and healthier, and worms are just one step on the way.”

The worms in the experiment lived longer because his colleagues in China altered two signalling pathways in their cells. These pathways were previously both linked to ageing – in the past, experiments altering one of the pathways had doubled C elegans’s life expectancy, while experiments with the other increased the worms’ lifespan by 30%. The team expected that altering both pathways simultaneously would see worms living 130% longer. Instead, they lived five times longer.

Mutating the two pathways sends signals to cells telling them to use dietary nutrients to go into “maintenance mode” instead of “growth mode” – fixing the damage caused by age. But what are the immediate repercussions? Rollins explains that scientists used to look for one “silver bullet” in anti-ageing research, but the therapies that “are going to have the most effect are probably going to stimulate multiple different genetic pathways at once… This is really going to change how people look at the ageing process.” Amelia Tait

Why 2020 will make us better

Troubled eras have always inspired positive human progress – and 2020 will be no different, says Peter Frankopan, professor of global history at Oxford University

This year has been a terrible and chastening experience. But rather than allow doom and despair to sweep us away, we should be optimistic about the future – and in the long run, we might just owe 2020 a debt of thanks, rather than mutter its name with spite.

The experiences of this year will – and must – teach important lessons about being better prepared for future epidemics. It will lead to greater understanding of how to plan and execute large-scale emergency responses more quickly and more efficiently and with better outcomes. And it will make us think about the risks and threats in the world around us with greater clarity and depth.

The fact that Covid-19 vaccines have been developed with astonishing speed might encourage those who fear the worst about other big problems. Climate change is the most obvious mega-threat: in the long run, our pandemic experiences must help with that.

While Covid hit the economy, one outcome may be smarter policy that looks to keep people in jobs, ensures towns and city centres remain vibrant and encourages small businesses to flourish and grow – rather than enabling virtual monopolies to impose strangleholds over the economy which heighten social inequalities.

And 2020 has forced a recalibration of ambitions and expectations on a personal level. At the start of the year, our aims might have included a promotion or a higher salary. Today, those hopes have been replaced by something rather more modest and, indeed, better for us: to see friends, visit the pub, watch live sports, go to the theatre or visit somewhere new.

Outside the pandemic, the murder of George Floyd in May proved a catalyst in raising voices who demand a fairer, more equitable and kinder society. It forced global public attention to focus on the realities of discrimination and racism, to recognise that there might be better alternatives to having statutes of rich slave-owners towering over town squares and that cultural imperialism did not end when the age of empire did.

Beyond 2020? We would do well to remember that, in the past 30 years, more people have been lifted out of poverty than ever before; more children and mothers have survived childbirth; more people are able to read and write than at any point in human history.

For all the horrors of the year, hope is still present – as the historian Agathias wrote in the sixth century, times of disaster throw up prophets who talk about doom and gloom and predict how much worse things will get with great certainty. Much better, then, to be positive and optimistic.

THE GREEN ROOM (Episode 8): Climate Change and the Voiceless

GREEN ROOM: LIVE WEBINAR

Randall S. Abate is the inaugural Rechnitz Family and Urban Coast Institute Endowed Chair in Marine and Environmental Law and Policy, and a Professor in the ...

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Summary of the Discussion

The discussion kicked off with a brief introduction of our guest, Prof Randall S. Abate, Professor in the Department of Political Science and Sociology, at Monmouth University in West Long Branch, New Jersey. by our amiable moderator Dr. Duygu Sever Mehmetoğlu

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LISTEN TO PODCAST

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Randall S. Abate is the inaugural Rechnitz Family and Urban Coast Institute Endowed Chair in Marine and Environmental Law and Policy, and a Professor in the Department of Political Science and Sociology, at Monmouth University.

ABOUT THE MODERATOR

S. Duygu Sever is a passionate researcher who works on the intertwined relationship between energy politics, sustainability and human security. She holds a PhD in Political Science and International Relations at Koç University, Turkey.

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QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Moderator: So Professor, let's start with the basics. You are using a very interesting, striking, and important term The Voiceless while talking about climate change and the efforts to mitigate its impact. What does the term Voiceless stand for?

Prof. Randall: Well, I used this term deliberately in the book to represent those that are not able to represent their own interests under the law. So, the three categories that I've identified in the book share that common vulnerability when we talk about future generations of humans such as youth that are not yet able to vote and the unborn, and wildlife and natural resources. They share a common vulnerability of not being able to represent their interest in the legal system and therefore they need human guardians and advocates to step in to protect their interest, to account for their concerns because they're not able to participate on their own behalf. And so the term of the voiceless does have other meanings outside of this book project and I certainly respect those references as well. For instance, sometimes voiceless can refer to other marginalized communities of humans who aren't adequately protected under the law but for purposes of this book project, it's those three categories only.

Sabika: Thank you for having me on your show. Thank you. My name is Sabika and I'm calling in from Qatar and I suppose I'd like to just briefly tap into your expertise at law. And as we all know that climate change is just not a simple issue, It is not only an environmental issue, It is an issue that is a social issue and economic issue, a racial one, a gender, ableism, a moral issue, just so many layers but when it comes to law, which is a mechanism to kind of figure this all out, in your opinion has the field of law involved enough to allow representation from these, you know vulnerable groups if you will and even in the field of law and law schools and what have you, has environmental law developed enough to be powerful? Do you see a specialist out there?

Prof. Randall: Thank you very much for that question Sabika. I am encouraged by the developments in the US, I can certainly speak too much directly just in the past decade that environmental justice as a field has really become much more recognized and respected as a way of seeking to promote change on these issues and just with the Biden administration some very progressive thinking people on the notion of environmental justice and how that fits into climate change and sustainability have been appointed. So I have some hope there, but more importantly at what I am most encouraged by is that there are a lot of efforts creative efforts in the courts with climate change litigation over the past decade and it wasn't so much about which cases won or lost in the court. But what was encouraging to me about it was that it really transformed climate Justice into a movement into a social movement and I've seen that very much reflected in the youth in American society now that climate justice is very much a rallying cry like black lives matter and like me too. It's a galvanizing of this demand for social justice and how we move forward and so environmental justice is a very important piece of those when used to be different social issues. And now we're seeing those come together in today's youth in the US and that is also informing who that generation is voting for who's ultimately getting into state and federal political offices to be able to reflect the will of the public and set agendas on these issues.

Sabika: Thank you so much and do I have an opportunity to ask one more question then

Moderator: Sure, please do.

Sabika: Okay, perfect. So, I mean I understand that capitalism has been the driving force of economies worldwide and you also touched upon this in your earlier discussion, but I guess the alarming fact is that it's also the driving force behind the developing economies that are almost myopically kind of going on this narrow path of rapid development and it tends to kind of emphasize individual prosperity over the more global kind of thinking. So I suppose the question is that is there a space within capitalism that is being practiced in developing countries to look at actions towards climate change as a win-win situation as opposed to a zero-sum game. Are there any ways to make it, you know, the defects of climate change less conceptually distant because at the moment there seems to be very limited pressure to have these sustainable mechanisms in place, especially in this new kind of economies?

Prof. Randall: That's a great question. So I think that kind of reflects back on this notion of climate in the climate change negotiations, the notion of common but differentiated responsibilities in how we need to move forward as a global community to address climate change, and what that really means is that the developed countries have a higher responsibility to lead these transitions away from our bad habits whether it be capitalism or fossil fuels or factory farming and essentially the developing world is entitled to financial and technical assistance from the developed world to help them make that transition in a slower way because they lack the means and in fact, they're entitled to their engagement of those capitalism mechanisms to advance their economics because the developed world had that opportunity and exploited it and it shouldn't be well now there's no room for the developing world to engage in that more short-term capitalistic frame. But the reality is that we're all more informed about what it means to be sustainable. So even with that slower transition in the developing world away from capitalism, there needs to be more sustainable minded thinking and how those capitalistic efforts can move forward. There's no right to exploit the environment. There is a right to develop in a way that's going to sustain the economies of those developing countries without being unduly burdensome on the environment. And so I think that's where there really is this moral and political and economic responsibility in the developed world to support that transition and that hasn't gone as well as hoped. If there's anything that has come out of the past three decades of climate negotiations, It's that the developed world especially countries like the US have not embraced that moral responsibility and the developing world is just pushing back and saying it shouldn't land in our shoulders and as has been very frustrated by that reality.

Sabika: Thank you. Dr. Randall. Thank you so much.

Prof. Randall: Thank you for the questions.

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Favourite Quote

“The Voiceless represents those that are not able to represent their own interests under the law.”

— Prof. Randall S. Abate

“What Sustainability really means is that it really requires us to adopt more of an ecocentric way of looking and moving forward as inhabitants of this planet.”

— Prof. Randall S. Abate

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Top Comment

Prof. Abate is an inspiration, his work in social equity, climate justice and clarifications on sustainable development is indeed profound, relevant and needed.- Chris Chinapoo

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Rethinking stimulus: How Covid economic recovery can help battle climate change

Emma Newburger

• Scientists warn that global carbon emissions will rebound next year and continue to surge unless governments prioritize climate change in their Covid economic recovery plans.

• A green pandemic recovery includes shifting away from fossil fuels and toward investing in zero-emissions technologies and infrastructure, ending coal plant production and restoring the planet.

• “The science is clear. Time is running out,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of the U.N. Environment Programme.

Employees of the company Goldbecksolar are testing a module in a solar park under construction in a former gravel opencast mine.

Jens Buttner | picture alliance | Getty Images

During the coronavirus pandemic, the worst public health crisis in a century, some people pointed to what appears to be a tiny silver lining for the planet: Global lockdown measures reduced climate-changing carbon dioxide emissions.

Global greenhouse gas emissions plunged by roughly 7% from 2019 as a result of businesses closing and people traveling less by car and plane to mitigate the spread of the virus. The dip translates to a roughly 0.01 degree Celsius reduction of global warming by 2050 — a negligible impact, according to scientists.

But as 2020 ends and an initial vaccine rollout triggers hope that the pandemic will soon end, scientists warn that emissions will rebound next year and continue to surge unless governments prioritize climate change in their Covid-19 economic recovery plans.

Investing in a green recovery

In response to the pandemic’s economic damage, the world’s biggest economies have already committed more than $12 trillion in restarting economies, according to the International Monetary Fund.

It’s an unprecedented global effort that scientists and researchers argue must incorporate climate-resilient projects like increasing green public transportation, renewable energy and smart electricity grids.

“These stimulus packages are a once-in-a-generation opportunity to kickstart a green recovery, one that locks us into an equitable and sustainable future,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of the U.N. Environment Programme.

“The science is clear. Time is running out,” Andersen said. “We have one decade to transform our economies and avoid climate catastrophe.”

A so-called green recovery after the pandemic includes shifting away from investing in and providing subsidies for fossil fuels and toward investing in zero-emissions technologies and infrastructure, ending coal plant production and restoring and conserving the planet.

“There’s a bar for effective and lasting emissions reductions,” said Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at Georgia Tech. “The pandemic fails on all counts.”

“Coming out of the pandemic, governments of the world are going to be investing trillions of dollars in efforts to jumpstart economies and mitigate suffering,” Cobb said. “They should make these stimulus packages emissions friendly and equitable.”

Workers install wind turbines at a wind farm on November 16, 2020 in Anqing, Anhui Province of China.

Li Long | Visual China Group | Getty Images

The world is still heading for a temperature rise in excess of 3-degrees Celsius this century, far above the goals set by the global Paris climate accord. The temperature increases are linked to more frequent and destructive climate disasters like hurricanes and wildfires, rapid ice melt and exacerbated sea-level rise.

A green pandemic recovery could cut anticipated emissions in 2030 by up to 25% and increase the chances of keeping the world below a 2-degree Celsius scenario by up to 66%, according to a U.N. report published this month.

Huge missed opportunity

Jennifer Layke, global director at research group World Resources Institute, emphasized that the window of opportunity for governments to invest in climate-resilient technology and infrastructure is critical.

For instance, leaders of countries including Germany, Britain and Japan have urged nations to invest in technology like solar power and electric vehicles as part of their pandemic recovery plans.

In the U.S., Congress on Monday passed a $900 billion stimulus package that has several provisions to fight climate change, including significant investment in renewable energy technology like solar, wind and energy storage. Congress also agreed to cut the use of hydrofluorocarbons, a planet-warming chemical found in refrigerators and air-conditioning.

But many countries building out stimulus recovery plans have failed to prioritize clean energy investment, and policymakers and energy system participants are resorting to what they’ve done in the past.

Only about one-quarter of G-20 leaders have dedicated shares of their spending, up to 3% of GDP, to low-carbon measures, according to the U.N.

“Ambition alone is not going to help us reduce emissions.”

— Inger Andersen U.N. ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME

“We have not seen the level of investment in green stimulus that would allow to us to transition out of fossil fuels into cleaner technologies,” Layke said. “It’s a huge missed opportunity.”

The global response to the pandemic is reminiscent of the financial crisis 10 years ago, Layke said, when carbon emissions rebounded higher than ever after governments around the world invested more in fossil fuels to recover from the recession.

“The economy is a big tanker heading in the wrong direction globally,” she said. “This is the moment where we need these leaders to take action. If their Covid-19 recovery investments made to date are an indictor, we are off course.”

More net-zero emission targets

What also matters is whether governments around the world update and solidify more ambitious climate targets at the next round of U.N. talks, set to take place in Glasgow, Scotland, in November.

While emissions trends aren’t looking good, there is a global shift underway. The U.N. report showed that 126 countries comprising 51% of global greenhouse gas emissions have adopted or are considering net-zero emissions targets by mid-century.

China, the world’s largest polluter, has vowed to reduce its emissions to net-zero before 2060. Britain has vowed to cut emissions by 68% by 2030. And Korea and Japan have announced net-zero targets.

In the U.S., President-elect Joe Biden has promised to reenter the Paris agreement and bring emissions to net-zero by 2050, though it’s unclear how ambitious his emissions reductions target will be.

Despite a wide range of countries committing to reductions targets, experts criticized their global pandemic stimulus effort for failing to prioritize investments in energy efficiency.

“Ambition alone is not going to help us reduce emissions. It is absolutely critical that countries translate these ambitions and commitments into the nationally determined contributions and get moving with implementation plans,” Andersen said.

“I also urge governments to use the next wave of Covid-19 fiscal interventions to move us in this direction, because at the end of the day, we simply cannot put a price on the future we stand to lose.”

Global food industry on course to drive rapid habitat loss – research

World faces huge wildlife losses by 2050 unless what and how food is produced changes

The global food system is on course to drive rapid and widespread ecological damage with almost 90% of land animals likely to lose some of their habitat by 2050, research has found.

A study published in the journal Nature Sustainability shows that unless the food industry is rapidly transformed, changing what people eat and how it is produced, the world faces widespread biodiversity loss in the coming decades.

The study’s lead author, David Williams from Leeds University, said without fundamental changes, millions of square kilometres of natural habitats could be lost by 2050.

He said: “Ultimately, we need to change what we eat and how it is produced if we are going to save wildlife on a global scale.”

The international research team was led by academics from the University of Leeds and the University of Oxford. The study estimated how evolving food systems would affect biodiversity and found that the losses were likely to be particularly severe in sub-Saharan Africa and in parts of Central and South America.

Michael Clark, another lead author from University of Oxford, said while conventional conservation tactics such as establishing new protected areas or introducing legislation to save specific species were necessary, the research underscored the importance of “reducing the ultimate stresses to biodiversity – such as agricultural expansion”.

The study examined the potential impact of making ambitious changes in specific regions or countries, from eating less meat to reductions in food loss and waste; increases in crop yields to international land-use planning.

The authors say this varied approach enables policymakers to identify which changes will have the largest benefit in their country or region, pointing out, for example, that raising agricultural yields would probably bring huge benefits to biodiversity in sub-Saharan Africa, but do very little in North America where yields are already high.

In contrast, shifting to healthier diets would have big benefits in North America, but it is less likely to have a large benefit in regions where meat consumption is low and food insecurity is high.

Clark said: “Importantly, we need to do all of these things. No one approach is sufficient on its own. But with global coordination and rapid action, it should be possible to provide healthy diets for the global population in 2050 without major habitat losses.”

31 species now extinct, according to ICUN's Red List of threatened species

Julia Jacobo

At least 35,765 species are threatened with extinction.

An update to the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Threatened Species has declared 31 animal and plant species extinct.

That total includes the lost shark, listed as critically endangered or possibly extinct, as it was last recorded in 1934, the ICUN announced on Thursday. The lost shark's habitat in the South China Sea, one of the world's most exploited marine regions, has been extensively fished for more than a century.

It's unlikely the lost shark's population could have persisted under current conditions, so it's probably already extinct, according to the ICUN.

Out of 17 freshwater fish species in Lake Lanao and its outlet in the Philippines, 15 are now extinct and two are critically endangered or possibly extinct, the ICUN announced. The extinctions were caused by predatory introduced species as well as overharvesting and destructive fishing methods.

In Central America, three frog species have now been declared extinct. Another 22 frog species across Central and South America are listed as critically endangered or possibly extinct -- with the driver of the declines identified as chytridiomycosis disease, an infectious disease caused by a fungus that affects amphibians worldwide.

In addition, all of the species of freshwater dolphin in the world are now threatened with extinction, with the addition of the tucuxi, a freshwater dolphin species found in the Amazon river system, to the list, according to the ICUN. The tucuxi population has been "severely depleted" by deaths linked to fishing gear, damming rivers and pollution. The priority actions to recover the species include eliminating the use of gillnets -- curtains of fishing net that hang in the water, reducing the number of dams in its habitat and enforcing the ban on deliberately killing them.

In the plant world, the ICUN has found that nearly a third of oak trees around the world are threatened with extinction, with the highest numbers in China and Mexico, followed by Vietnam, the U.S. and Malaysia. Land clearance for logging and agriculture are the most common threats, as well as invasive alien species and diseases, and climate change.

Species that have recovered include the European bison, the largest land mammal in Europe, which has progressed from vulnerable to near-threatened. The population has grown from about 1,800 in 2003 to more than 6,200 in 2019 after surviving only in captivity in the early 20th century. It was reintroduced to the wild in the 1950s, and the largest subpopulations are found in Poland, Belarus and Russia.

Currently, there are 47 free-ranging European bison herds, but they're largely isolated from one another and confined to suboptimal forest habitats, according to the ICUN. Only eight of the herds are large enough to be genetically viable in the long term, so the species will remain dependent on conservation efforts, such as moving them to more optimal, open habitats, and reducing conflicts with humans.

The outlook for 25 other species has also improved, which demonstrates "the power of conservation," IUCN Director General Dr. Bruno Oberle said in a statement. The growing list of extinct species is a "stark reminder that conservation efforts must urgently expand" and that conservation needs to become incorporated in all sectors of the economy to tackle global threats, such as unsustainable fisheries, land clearing for agriculture and invasive species.

"The conservation successes in today's Red List update provide living proof that the world can set, and meet, ambitious biodiversity targets," Dr. Jane Smart, global director of IUCN's Biodiversity Conservation Group, said in a statement. "They further highlight the need for real, measurable commitments as we formulate and implement the post-2020 global biodiversity framework."

A memorable year: readers reveal their silver linings

Mark Rice-Oxley

The stepping stones at Dovedale national nature reserve in the Peak District, Derbyshire. Photograph: dianajarvisphotography.co.uk/Alamy

A memorable year: readers reveal their silver linings

It was a year to forget, but one we will always remember. But though so much was lost, 2020 was the year when we discovered new things about ourselves, our collective kindness, resilience, compassion, invention and humour, as Guardian readers make clear in their reflections on the silver linings of the year.

In British Columbia, Canada, Leanne Harrison relished new digital opportunities

At age 75, one thing I hope carries forward as a result of pandemic is the large array of Zoom presentations I was able to access this year. International events I would not have been able to attend were at my iPad fingertips, newspaper journalists interviewed at length people I would not have seen, online exercise gurus led me through interesting routines, courses and lectures came to my living room: such a bonanza of intellectual richness

In the English Peak District, Vivienne Hitchings feels fitter at 73 than she did at 72

I have been walking longer distances in the Peak District and discovered its beauty, sharing it with like-minded people who are also escaping the confines of a house. It is so varied, with green meadows, rivers roaring over boulders surrounded by colourful trees, and steep cliffs across the landscape that give stunning views.

The bonus is that at age 73 I also feel so much fitter and healthier than I did at 72. Although at present I can’t interact much with my grandchildren, hopefully because of my improved fitness I’ll be around a lot longer and will make up for this loss with lots of future hugs!

In Toronto, Ren Tashiro sought spiritual renewal

I’m a mother of a teen who has struggled with an anxiety disorder for several years. For me this year, it was learning and applying DBT (dialectical behavioral therapy) skills, mainly acceptance, non-judgment, a core of mindfulness, that has allowed me to stay centred and calm. To this I add daily gratitude thoughts, and I am slowly learning meditation. In spite of the many challenges, I can truly say that there are so many things to celebrate.

I jog every day, and am looking very much forward to skating outdoors at our local park every day this winter! I play women’s hockey, and while that will probably be banned, skating outside is such a gift. Our mayor has done an incredible job, making spaces for Torontonians to exercise outside this year. We are luckier than many.

In Florida, Thomas Olsen took the time to appreciate what he has

The best of this bad year is having been forced off the world’s merry-go-round. It has given me a chance to appreciate my surroundings – the young squirrels chasing each other in play on a large oak; the appreciation of a sunset and moonrise; the return of direct and unhurried dialogue with my mate; the trend to phone calls rather than texting, and an opportunity to plumb my spiritual depths. I am thankful.

In Edinburgh, Susan Marr got dressed up

I have a cousin whose daughter lives in New Zealand. She decided that one way to keep her children happy was to have a daily theme and dress up accordingly. This was tremendous fun. I’ve been Cilla Black, worn stripes, or yellow, or any manner of colours, been a fortune teller in a circus, worn back-to-front outfits.

All this first thing in the morning to catch their day on WhatsApp in NZ. I was so grateful for these challenges on the bleak days when I was upset about being unable to see my children and grandchildren in Edinburgh, my mother in Manchester, and when a close friend died.

In Washington DC, Stephanie Soper had the best car crash she’s ever had

On top of everything else that went horribly askew this year (including developing an autoimmune blood disorder that required immune-suppressant medication just as the pandemic took off), my car was rear-ended in August. Amazingly, other than the accident itself, the whole experience was just lovely.

The man whose car unavoidably hit me was patient, calm, and kind. He offered me a bottle of water and one of his spare masks – I’d been so rattled, I forgot to take mine when I left my car. Police from three jurisdictions came, and every single one was polite, good-humoured, and helpful. The tow truck driver, same. A dear friend lived nearby and rescued me. She took me home to drop off the groceries I’d been out to buy, then took me to dinner.

The place where the accident happened is gorgeous – lush green, by a river at a marina. Truly scenic. The weather was moderate – I wasn’t stuck standing by the scene in steamy heat or pouring rain, just pleasant late-afternoon sunshine. Neither the other driver nor I was injured.

In the aftermath, I wrote to Subaru to compliment them on how well the car had withstood the collision – a carton of eggs in back of car (a hatchback, so, pretty vulnerable in a rear-end crash), had just one slightly cracked egg. That led to a delightful email conversation with a company rep, who sent me a gift. My insurance company, the rental car company, and the collision repair centre all went over and above what they had to do and were just wonderful to work with.

All in all, a bad experience led to a series of truly happy conditions. In a funny way, the car accident was the highlight of 2020.

In Johannesburg, Felix C felt his community show resilience and compassion

Even though South Africa – in deep trouble politically, socially, and economically prior to the pandemic knocking on our door – has been severely impacted by the pandemic on all levels, resulting in staggering unemployment, looming debt defaults, a frail health infrastructure, and the deaths of many of its citizens, it is once again its peoples who have shown their resilience in coming together to face the threat and challenges.

For me the (painful) lessons learned from this global crisis:

• Our global and local society is unjust and broken and must be fixed
• Each one of us has a (small) part to play to help heal our nations
• People do really care and want to share and support each other
• Greed is wasteful and over-consumption is ugly – less is definitely more
• Truthful leadership is in short supply and much of political power is misplaced
• The media feeds diversity and confrontation through fake noise created
• Being “isolated” calms and rewards
• Family and friends are what truly matters
• This is an excellent time to reset oneself

Rachel Batty learned much after being forced to leave her husband in Kuwait and return to England to be with her teenage children

We got through the many upheavals and uncertainties of that time by telling ourselves that with each day that passed, we were one day closer to all being together again. That day has yet to come, but it is now at least in sight.

Coming out is never easy or pain free. Coming out as trans involves a narrative alien to so many ears that it is like trying to make yourself understood in the Tower of Babel. Yet the shroud of lockdown meant that our daughter was able to become herself quietly, discreetly, step by step.

Protected by the Zoom screen and safe space of Microsoft Teams, delighted, emboldened and validated by her new on-screen name, she blossomed in time with the unfolding spring outside. The monochrome landscape of a frozen winter that had trapped her in discomfort for 17 years thawed. She put down the weighty burden of confusion and dysphoria to reveal her true self, finding a language to express it both eloquently and patiently.

I am grateful for the incredible support from her school, the time, space and home delivery services that enabled her transformation from awkward and inwardly angry teenage boy to the calm, composed and caring young lady preparing herself for adulthood in a brave new world.

I am grateful for the time I had with her away from the gaze of others to work through my fear, lack of understanding, desire to fix and mend, to gradually reach the point of loving acceptance and letting go. I mourned the loss of our son and the future I had built for him in my mind. I feared for the safety, happiness and prosperity of our trans daughter.

When we shared the news from our different corners of the world, I thirstily drank the words of wisdom, hope and celebration that poured through the grainy screens of mobile phones and scratchy internet connections. Family and friends presented a united front: solid in their support, steadfast in their love. Distance was diminished in those moments.

There is only so much that can be communicated from afar, however, and the job and joy of family is hands-on: it resides firmly in the flesh and blood.

In February my husband hugged goodbye to his son, Tom, and in five days’ time he will fold his daughter, Clara, in his arms for the very first time. That will be the high point of the year for our family. The silver lining is the strong family fabric of strength and togetherness we wove from the disparate threads of exclusion and separation.

In London, Amber Badger watched her son and his girlfriend get in shape

My son and his girlfriend were locked in with us from March. Relocating here from a seven-year successful stint in Dubai, they were on the brink of finding jobs in London and then renting a flat there. Then lockdown hit. Yikes, they thought they would go stir crazy!

Neither of them were particularly physically fit so they decided to join the ever-present Joe Wicks programme. That included building up to a 5K run (neither had ever run before). Yoga was also added to their regime, again a first, and every day they added 10,000 steps to their exercise regime. They are both foodies but decided to join us in our 5/2 fasting and they cut down to two meals a day.

The upshot of this was that they were busy and happy. My son lost 25kg (4st) and his girlfriend 12.5kg. So yes, the lockdown has been transformative for them. They both have jobs in London now and are living in a rented flat. Running and staying fit is a new way of life for them that they would never have discovered had they not been terrified of going stir crazy stuck at home with parents/parents-in-law. We are so proud of them.

In Oxfordshire, Claire Lynch welcomed the simple things in life

I’ve learned how important touch is; eye contact is so important, but we need touch almost as much.

I loved the simplicity and the quiet (empty roads), the freedom (strange when we were actually restricted). Loved the slowing pace and the fact that nature was allowed space, too.

My husband believes he has learned to be more patient!

Jacques-Cartier national park, Quebec. Volunteers with Mission 100 tonnes collect rubbish to clear river banks and waterways. Photograph: Eduardo Arraes/Getty Images

In Quebec, Francine Gendron watched a community group redouble its efforts

For two years I have been part of a Quebec group called Mission 100 tonnes, which aims to collect that amount of rubbish from the riversides as well as in the water with the help of divers. They formed groups throughout the province.

This year, because of Covid the organisation has suspended organising the groups, but people carried on the work and groups have created themselves and continued the work.

In Sheffield, Graham Cole went walking

Graham Cole at large in the Peak District. Photograph: Graham Cole

My optimism this year is based mainly on two factors that will have a huge impact on the consumption-pollution problem. 2020 must be the best year for bringing a downward trend in consumption, including travel. I could not previously believe there were enough trendsetters who opted to usefully limit their spending to what they needed most.

With all the restrictions, we have collectively been forced to reduce spending. As a result there has been plenty of heartsearching and sharing of good ideas. For example, in the Derbyshire Peak District we see far more visitors cycling, walking and running for exercise. People go out to revel in their natural surroundings, the clean air and open skies.

I am rejoicing that politics has this year been elevated to the importance it deserves, especially among young people. Trump was beaten with a record number of votes cast and his chaotic spiteful endgame will be remembered for decades all round the world.

Our own PM [Boris] Johnson will avoid being a Trump lookalike with offhand treatment of Covid troubles and telling lies as if it doesn’t matter as long as it brings popularity. Democracy won a narrow reprieve in the US and both racism and corruption have been in the spotlight enough to foster more effective resistance to both.

Combining more awareness of politics and discovering that consumption can be lowered while having a very good lifestyle are going to help us in future. 2020 has been an unusually good year for learning what matters.

In Somerset, Kate Macdonald’s business had its best year yet

Lockdown meant that the bookshops all closed, and the hidden parts of the book trade – the distributors, the wholesalers, the delivery drivers, the printers – had to seriously consider how they could survive. One of the two main UK wholesalers, Bertrams, collapsed, owing hundreds of thousands of pounds to publishers of all sizes, including us. That was very bad news, because small publishers like us operate hand to mouth, and having to write off a four-figure sum in debt is no laughing matter.

But we kept going, because our website sales quadrupled over lockdown. The reading public, thank heavens, felt a massive need to support independent bookshops and publishers, and their orders flowed in, daily. Every working day during the first lockdown, I packed my bike panniers, cycled on gloriously empty roads to the post office, and posted books all over the world. Our distributor kept going, under social distancing rules, dispatching books to the bookshops that were receiving orders for customers to collect.

Our sales rose and rose. We published two titles in the first lockdown, and one has become one of our top four bestsellers, due to a couple of fiercely haggled-over ads and a lot of word-of-mouth delight. Our November sales figures were our highest yet.

It feels terrible to say it, because 2020 has been a terrible year. But it’s been our best year for business yet.

Air pollution verdict shines political light on UK's invisible killer

Air pollution is the invisible killer, unseen but also unacknowledged on the death certificates of the 40,000 people it sends to an early grave in the UK every year. But on Wednesday, for the first time, the lethal impact of toxic air was given a name and a face – Ella Kissi-Debrah, a nine-year-old girl from south London.

Politicians have been told for many years that dirty air kills but have ducked the decisions needed amid the noisy honking of the motoring lobby. The coroner’s conclusion that air pollution was a cause of Ella’s death means those politicians can no longer pretend that illegal levels of pollution are a victimless crime.

The immediate impact will pile pressure on the government for an “Ella’s law” to lower the UK’s legal pollution limits to those recommended by the World Health Organization. The proposal is not only backed by Ella’s family, but by groups ranging from the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health to the Mumsnet website.

Many see it as a scandal that serious action to cut toxic air has not been taken already. Most urban areas of the UK have had illegal levels of diesel-driven nitrogen dioxide since 2010 and ministers have had their plan declared illegal three times. Small particle pollution is above WHO limits in many cities and towns.

A cross-party committee of MPs declared air pollution a “public health emergency” in 2016, while the WHO calls it “the new tobacco”. Over 90% of the world’s people breathe unclean air, and at least 7 million die early each year, with many more suffering damage to their health.

While air quality is improving in some parts of the world, scientific understanding of the insidious health impacts is expanding fast. Air pollution may be damaging every organ in the body, according to a comprehensive global review, with effects including heart and lung disease, diabetes, dementia, reduced intelligence and increased depression. Children and the unborn may suffer the most.

Current UK limits for particulate matter are two and a half times higher than the WHO recommends

PM2.5 in micrograms per cubic metre of air

In the UK, the government’s own analysis in 2017 identified by far the most effective action – clean air zones in urban centres where polluting vehicles are deterred, usually by charges. But ministers pushed the responsibility for introducing these on to local authorities, who are now delaying or abandoning their introduction, citing the temporary pollution cuts during coronavirus lockdowns. However, in many parts of the UK pollution has already returned to levels at or above pre-lockdown levels.

Experts said the coroner Philip Barlow’s verdict on Ella’s death was unlikely to have immediate legal consequences for the government or councils. “This was a decision about the cause of Ella’s death, rather than determining who was at fault, so it doesn’t provide a direct precedent others can rely on,” said Katie Nield, a lawyer at the environmental law charity ClientEarth.

However, the coroner explicitly cited the “levels of [air pollution] in excess of WHO guidelines” to which Ella was exposed before her death. Despite a previous commitment to putting WHO limits into UK law by the then environment minister, Michael Gove, Conservative MPs voted down the proposal in March, with the minister Rebecca Pow questioning its “economic viability”.

The coroner’s groundbreaking finding on Ella’s death makes this backsliding look politically untenable and a powerful coalition has formed behind the WHO target, including ClientEarth, which inflicted three court defeats against the government’s plans, the all-party parliamentary group on air pollution, led by Geraint Davies, and the British Safety Council.

The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, who has overseen significant cuts in the capital’s air pollution, also wants greater national-level action. “Ministers and the previous mayor [Boris Johnson] acted too slowly in the past,” he has said. Further pressure may come next year when the coroner produces an official report to prevent future deaths based on Ella’s case.

Greg Archer, the UK director of the Transport and Environment campaign group and who gave expert evidence to the inquest, said: “Ella’s tragic death could have been avoided if irresponsible governments had not put the needs of the car industry and diesel car drivers before vulnerable children.”

“In the seven years since Ella died, nearly 250,000 other UK families have suffered tragedy as a result of vulnerable loved ones breathing toxic air – four times more than those killed by Covid this year,” Archer said. “In modern Britain, this is inexcusable and preventable.”

Paul Swinney, director of policy and research at the Centre for Cities, contrasted the climate emergencies declared by government and local authorities with their action on dirty air: “When it comes to local air pollution, something they have very clear control over, they don’t do anything [mainly] because the motorist lobby is very strong. But if we keep on ducking these things, we are going to see people continuing to die.”

Error correction means California's future wetter winters may never come

DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

California and other areas of the U.S. Southwest may see less future winter precipitation than previously projected by climate models. After probing a persistent error in widely used models, researchers at the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory estimate that California will likely experience drier winters in the future than projected by some climate models, meaning residents may see less spring runoff, higher spring temperatures, and an increased risk of wildfire in coming years.

Earth scientist Lu Dong, who led the study alongside atmospheric scientist Ruby Leung, presented her findings at the American Geophysical Union's fall meeting on Tuesday, Dec. 1, and will answer questions virtually on Wednesday, Dec. 16.

As imperfect simulations of vastly complex systems, today's climate models have biases and errors. When new model generations are refined and grow increasingly accurate, some biases are reduced while others linger. One such long-lived bias in many models is the misrepresentation of an important circulation feature called the intertropical convergence zone, commonly known as the ITCZ.

The ITCZ marks an area just north of the Earth's equator where northeast trade winds from the northern hemisphere clash with southeast trade winds from the southern hemisphere. Strong sunlight and warm water heat the air here, energizing it along with the moisture it holds to move upward.

As the air rises, it expands and cools. Condensing moisture provides more energy to produce thunderstorms with intense rainfall. From space, one can even see a thick band of clouds, unbroken for hundreds of miles as they move about the region.

"The ITCZ produces the strongest, long line of persistent convection in the world," said Dong. "It can influence the global water cycle and climate over much of the Earth," including, she added, California's climate.

Doubling down on climate model bias

Many climate models mistakenly depict a double ITCZ: two bands appearing in both hemispheres instead of one, which imbues uncertainty in model projections. Scientists refer to this as the double-ITCZ bias. Variations in the wind and pressure systems that influence the ITCZ add to that uncertainty.

"There's a lot of uncertainty in California's future precipitation," said Dong, who described climate models that project a range of winter wetness in the state averaged over multiple years, from high increases to small decreases. "We want to know where this uncertainty comes from so we can better project future changes in precipitation."

To peer through the effect of the double-ITCZ bias and create more accurate projections, Dong and atmospheric scientist Ruby Leung analyzed data from nearly 40 climate models, uncovering statistical and mechanistic links between the bias and the models' outputs. The lion's share of the models they analyzed projected a sharpening of California's seasonal precipitation cycle, bringing wetter winters and drier fall and spring seasons.

Soft, white snow rests on either side of a California waterway. Winter precipitation includes more than just rain, encompassing snowpack in mountainous areas and other factors that influence climate processes throughout the year.

Less water, more fire

Those uncovered relationships, Dong said, now cast doubt on estimations from CMIP5 models that projected wetter winters in the future. Models saddled with a larger double-ITCZ bias, it turns out, tend to exaggerate the U.S. Southwest's wetter winters. They also understate the drier winters in the Mediterranean Basin, which also features pronounced wet winters and dry summers similar to California, under warming climate scenarios.

Correcting for the bias reduces winter precipitation projections to a level that's roughly equal to California's current winters, amounting to little change and no future wetter winters. In the Mediterranean Basin, said Dong, the correction means winter drying will be intensified by 32 percent.

"An important implication of this work," said Dong, "is that a reduction in estimated winter precipitation will likely mean a reduction in spring runoff and an increase in spring temperature, and both increase the likelihood of wildfire risk in California."

Learning from climate models

Though the study's focus was restricted solely to winter precipitation, said Leung, its implications reach to all seasons.

"The implications aren't just about how wet things will or won't be," said Leung. "When people think about precipitation, they tend to think about how much rain they'll get. But precipitation has a lot of implications, like snowpack in mountainous areas, for example, and that means whatever changes we see in winter precipitation will have subsequent implications for springtime or even summertime. The impacts don't just affect winter; they'll be felt throughout the year."

The findings do not bode well for agricultural production, as over one third of the country's vegetables are grown in California soil, and two thirds of its fruits and nuts are grown on California farms, according to the California Department of Food and Agriculture. Almonds and grapes, two especially water-hungry crops, were among the state's top producing commodities, bringing in a combined $11.5 billion in 2019.

Over 4 million acres and nearly 10,500 structures burned in the state's 2020 wildfire season. The fire season has grown longer, according to Cal Fire, which cites warmer spring temperatures as one of the reasons forests are now more susceptible to wildfire.

Dong and her research partners hope the findings will better inform resource management groups as they prepare for coming wildfire seasons and plan for drier-than-expected winters.

The double-ITCZ bias is prominent in all CMIP5 climate models, said Leung, as well as CMIP6 models, the most recent generation, though the latter were not considered in this work. "If you look at the whole ensemble of models," said Leung, "you see quite similar biases."

This research was funded by the Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional and Global Modeling and Analysis program area.

People, planet on ‘collision course’, warns UN Development Programme

UN News

Countries must redesign their development pathways to reduce pressures exerted on the environment and the natural world, or risk stalling humanity’s progress, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has cautioned.

The Anthropocene is ushering in new sets of complex, interconnected and universal development challenges like COVID-19 and #ClimateChange. How do these impact #humandevelopment today and in the future? Read @HDRUNDP's new report #HDR2020: https://t.co/3zjy4nzfYw pic.twitter.com/NTGnk7r8Nr

— Achim Steiner (@ASteiner) December 15, 2020

While the coronavirus pandemic is the latest crisis facing the world, but unless humans “release their grip on nature”, it won’t be the last, the agency said in its latest edition of the Human Development Report, entitled The Next Frontier, released on Tuesday.

“Humans wield more power over the planet than ever before. In the wake of COVID-19, record-breaking temperatures and spiraling inequality, it is time to use that power to redefine what we mean by progress, where our carbon and consumption footprints are no longer hidden,” said Achim Steiner, UNDP Administrator. 

“As this report shows, no country in the world has yet achieved very high human development without putting immense strain on the planet. But we could be the first generation to right this wrong. That is the next frontier for human development.” 

‘Experimental’ index  

The 30th anniversary edition of UNDP’s Human Development Report, The Next Frontier: Human Development and the Anthropocene, includes a new experimental index on human progress that takes into account countries’ carbon dioxide emissions and material footprint. Anthropocene is an unofficial unit of geological time; it describes an era in which humans are a dominant force shaping the future of planet Earth. 

By adjusting its annual Human Development Index – the measure of a nation’s health, education, and standards of living – to include two more elements: a country’s carbon dioxide emissions and its material footprint, the new index shows how the global development landscape would change if both the wellbeing of people and also the planet were central to defining humanity’s progress. 

With the resulting Planetary-Pressures Adjusted HDI – or PHDI - a new global picture emerges, painting a less rosy but clearer assessment of human progress.  

Working with nature 

Progress in human development, UNDP says, “will require working with and not against nature, while transforming social norms, values, and government and financial incentives.” 

For instance, estimates suggest that by 2100 the poorest countries in the world could experience up to 100 more days of extreme weather due to climate change each year – a number that could be cut in half if the Paris Agreement on climate change is fully implemented. 

Similarly, reforestation and taking better care of woodlands could alone account for roughly a quarter of the pre-2030 actions needed to stop global warming from reaching 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, the report notes. 

WMO/Boris Palma

Sun rises over the mountains in the province of Carchi, northern Ecuador.

EU leaders agree on 55% emissions reduction target, but activist groups warn it is not enough

Anmar Frangoul

European Union leaders have agreed on a goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by the year 2030 compared with 1990 levels. The previous target had been a reduction of at least 40% by 2030.

The European Council’s President, Charles Michel, confirmed the news via Twitter on Friday morning, describing Europe as “the leader in the fight against climate change.” The new target was reached at a summit taking place in Brussels, Belgium.

Ursula von der Leyen, who is president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said the target “puts us on a clear path towards climate neutrality in 2050.”

The EU’s adoption of the 55% target comes ahead of a Climate Ambition Summit this weekend which will be co-hosted by the United Nations, the U.K. and France, in partnership with Italy and Chile.

Last week the U.K. government said it would target an emissions cut of at least 68% by the year 2030 compared with 1990 levels. The U.K. left the EU in January 2020.

The EU’s revised 2030 goal now requires a green light from the European Parliament, a directly elected law-making body that has called for a 60% emissions cut by the end of this decade. 

Work to be done?

Among those reacting to the news was Jytte Guteland, an MEP and the European Parliament’s rapporteur on the European Climate Law.

“It is important not to be fooled into thinking that a net target of 55 percent is sufficient,” Guteland said via Twitter on Friday. “I have a strong mandate from the elected representatives in the European Parliament to push for more climate ambition. I intend to do that when we meet and negotiate.”

Elsewhere, the European unit of Greenpeace said the deal exposed “a reluctance by governments to follow the science and tackle the root causes of the climate emergency.”

Sebastian Mang, Greenpeace EU climate policy adviser, said the evidence showed that the deal was “only a small improvement on the emission cuts the EU is already expected to achieve.”

“It shows that political convenience takes precedence over climate science, and that most politicians are still afraid to take on big polluters,” he added.

Colin Roche, climate justice coordinator at Friends of the Earth Europe, said the new goal was “still a far cry from the victory the climate needs.”

This week marks the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement on climate change, a landmark deal which aims to keep global warming “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (35.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, and “pursue efforts” to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

“Our leaders must go further to deliver Europe’s fair share of global action to cut carbon and live up to the agreement they made in Paris five years ago,” Friends of the Earth Europe’s Roche said.

“Meanwhile if this new target is to be meaningful, planned new EU infrastructure spending must cut out all fossil fuels now.”

US to hold world climate summit early next year and seek to rejoin Paris accord

Fiona Harvey

Action points for first 100 days of Joe Biden presidency seen as boost to international action currently falling behind

Joe Biden said he would immediately start working with counterparts on climate change mitigation. Photograph: Susan Walsh/AP

The US will hold a climate summit of the world’s major economies early next year, within 100 days of Joe Biden taking office, and seek to rejoin the Paris agreement on the first day of his presidency, in a boost to international climate action.

Leaders from 75 countries met without the US in a virtual Climate Ambition Summit co-hosted by the UN, the UK and France at the weekend, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris accord. The absence of the US underlined the need for more countries, including other major economies such as Brazil, Russia and Indonesia, to make fresh commitments on tackling the climate crisis.

Biden said in a statement: “I’ll immediately start working with my counterparts around the world to do all that we possibly can, including by convening the leaders of major economies for a climate summit within my first 100 days in office … We’ll elevate the incredible work cities, states and businesses have been doing to help reduce emissions and build a cleaner future. We’ll listen to and engage closely with the activists, including young people, who have continued to sound the alarm and demand change from those in power.”

He reiterated his pledge to put the US on a path to net zero carbon emissions by 2050, and said the move would be good for the US economy and workers. “We’ll do all of this knowing that we have before us an enormous economic opportunity to create jobs and prosperity at home and export clean American-made products around the world.”

António Guterres, the UN secretary general, said: “It is a very important signal. We look forward to a very active US leadership in climate action from now on as US leadership is absolutely essential. The US is the largest economy in the world, it’s absolutely essential for our goals to be reached.”

Donald Trump, whose withdrawal of the US from the Paris agreement took effect on the day after the US election in November, shunned the Climate Ambition Summit. Countries including Russia, Saudi Arabia and Mexico were excluded as they had failed to commit to climate targets in line with the Paris accord. Australia’s prime minister, Scott Morrison, had sought to join the summit but his commitments were judged inadequate, and an announcement from Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, of a net zero target just before the summit was derided as lacking credibility.

The Climate Ambition Summit failed to produce a major breakthrough, but more than 70 countries gave further details of plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris agreement goal of limiting temperature rises to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational 1.5C limit.

Many observers had hoped India might set a net zero emissions target, but its prime minister, Narendra Modi, promised only to “exceed expectations” by the centenary of India’s independence in 2047. China gave some details to its plan to cause emissions to peak before the end of this decade but stopped short of agreeing to curb its planned expansion of coal-fired power.

The UK pledged to stop funding fossil fuel development overseas, and the EU set out its plan to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030, compared with 1990 levels.

Alok Sharma, the UK’s business secretary, who will preside over UN climate talks called Cop26 next year, said much more action was needed. “[People] will ask: have we done enough to put the world on track to limit warming to 1.5C and protect people and nature from the effects of climate change? We must be honest with ourselves – the answer to that is currently no,” he said.

When Biden’s pledge to bring the US to net zero emissions by 2050 is included, countries accounting for more than two-thirds of global emissions are subject to net zero targets around mid-century, including the EU, the UK, Japan and South Korea. China has pledged to meet net zero by 2060, and a large number of smaller developing countries have also embraced the goal.

The task for the next year, before the Cop26 conference in Glasgow next November, will be to encourage all the world’s remaining countries – including oil-dependent economies such as Russia and Saudi Arabia – to sign up to long-term net zero targets, and to ensure that all countries also have detailed plans for cutting emissions within the next decade.

Those detailed national plans, called nationally determined contributions (NDCs), are the bedrock of the Paris agreement, setting out emissions curbs by 2030. Current NDCs, submitted in 2015, would lead to more than 3C of warming, so all countries must submit fresh plans in line with a long-term goal of net zero emissions. The US will be closely watched for its plans.

Nathaniel Keohane, a senior vice-president at the Environmental Defense Fund, said: “The [Climate Ambition] Summit captured and reflected the momentum of recent months, but didn’t push much beyond it. The world is waiting for Biden to bring the US back into the Paris agreement,The task for the next year, before the Cop26 conference in Glasgow next November, will be to encourage all the world’s remaining countries – including oil-dependent economies such as Russia and Saudi Arabia – to sign up to long-term net zero targets, and to ensure that all countries also have detailed plans for cutting emissions within the next decade.

Those detailed national plans, called nationally determined contributions (NDCs), are the bedrock of the Paris agreement, setting out emissions curbs by 2030. Current NDCs, submitted in 2015, would lead to more than 3C of warming, so all countries must submit fresh plans in line with a long-term goal of net zero emissions. The US will be closely watched for its plans.

Nathaniel Keohane, a senior vice-president at the Environmental Defense Fund, said: “The [Climate Ambition] Summit captured and reflected the momentum of recent months, but didn’t push much beyond it. The world is waiting for Biden to bring the US back into the Paris agreement, and will be looking for how ambitious the US is willing to be in its NDC.”