Coronavirus: How the common cold can boot out Covid

James Gallagher
Health and science correspondent

GETTY IMAGES

GETTY IMAGES

The virus that causes the common cold can effectively boot the Covid virus out of the body's cells, say researchers.

Some viruses are known to compete in order to be the one that causes an infection.

And University of Glasgow scientists say it appears cold-causing rhinovirus trumps coronavirus.

The benefits might be short-lived but rhinovirus is so widespread, they add, it could still help to suppress Covid.

Think of the cells in your nose, throat and lungs as being like a row of houses. Once a virus gets inside, it can either hold the door open to let in other viruses, or it can nail the door shut and keep its new home to itself.

Influenza is one of the most selfish viruses around, and nearly always infects alone. Others, such as adenoviruses, seem to be more up for a houseshare.

There has been much speculation about how the virus that causes Covid, known as Sars-CoV-2, would fit into the mysterious world of "virus-virus interactions".

The challenge for scientists is that a year of social distancing has slowed the spread of all viruses and made it much harder to study.

GETTY IMAGES

GETTY IMAGES

The team at the Centre for Virus Research in Glasgow used a replica of the lining of our airways, made out of the same types of cells, and infected it with Sars-CoV-2 and rhinovirus, which is one of the most widespread infections in people, and a cause of the common cold.

If rhinovirus and Sars-CoV-2 were released at the same time, only rhinovirus is successful. If rhinovirus had a 24-hour head start then Sars-CoV-2 does not get a look in. And even when Sars-CoV-2 had 24-hours to get started, rhinovirus boots it out.

"Sars-CoV-2 never takes off, it is heavily inhibited by rhinovirus," Dr Pablo Murcia told BBC News.

He added: "This is absolutely exciting because if you have a high prevalence of rhinovirus, it could stop new Sars-CoV-2 infections."

Similar effects have been seen before. A large rhinovirus outbreak may have delayed the 2009 swine flu pandemic in parts of Europe.

Further experiments showed rhinovirus was triggering an immune response inside the infected cells, which blocked the ability of Sars-CoV-2 to make copies of itself.

When scientists blocked the immune response, then levels of the Covid virus were the same as if rhinovirus was not there.

'Hard winter' ahead

However, Covid would be able to cause an infection again once the cold had passed and the immune response calmed down.

Dr Murcia said: "Vaccination, plus hygiene measures, plus the interactions between viruses could lower the incidence of Sars-CoV-2 heavily, but the maximum effect will come from vaccination."

Prof Lawrence Young, of Warwick Medical School, said human rhinoviruses, the most frequent cause of the common cold, were "highly transmissible".

He added that this study suggests "that this common infection could impact the burden of Covid-19 and influence the spread of SarsCoV2, particularly over the autumn and winter months when seasonal colds are more frequent".

Exactly how all this settles down in future winters is still unknown. Coronavirus is likely to still be around, and all the other infections that have been suppressed during the pandemic could bounce back as immunity to them wanes.

Dr Susan Hopkins, from Public Health England, has already warned of a "hard winter" as a result.

"We could see surges in flu. We could see surges in other respiratory viruses and other respiratory pathogens," she said,

The results have been published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases.

Nearly half the U.S. is in drought and conditions are expected to grow worse, NOAA says

Emma Newburger

  • Nearly half of the continental U.S. is in a moderate to exceptional drought, government forecasters said Thursday, and conditions are expected to grow more severe and persistent over the next three months.

  • It’s the most significant spring drought to grip the country since 2013 and will impact roughly 74 million people, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

  • The drought stretches from the Pacific Coast to the Great Plains and upper Midwest. The worst hit area is the Southwest, which experienced a La Nina and a failed summer monsoon in 2020.

Land owned by the Dick and Meg Latham and his sister Julia was devastated by the Pine Gulch Fire on August 27, 2020 near De Beque, Colorado. The fire burned the land so quickly and badly that in many parts nothing is left but deep ash, soot and stum…

Land owned by the Dick and Meg Latham and his sister Julia was devastated by the Pine Gulch Fire on August 27, 2020 near De Beque, Colorado. The fire burned the land so quickly and badly that in many parts nothing is left but deep ash, soot and stumps of trees and brush that had been there before.

Helen H. Richardson | MediaNews Group | The Denver Post via Getty Images

Nearly half of the continental United States is in a moderate to exceptional drought, government forecasters said on Thursday, and conditions are expected to grow more severe and persistent over the next three months.

It’s the most significant spring drought to grip the country since 2013 and will affect about 74 million people, scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said during a media briefing announcing their spring weather outlook.

The drought stretches from the Pacific Coast to the Great Plains and upper Midwest. The worst hit area is the Southwest, which experienced a La Nina event and a failed 2020 summer monsoon that exacerbated conditions.

“In many of the drought impacted areas, rangeland and winter pastures have already experienced adverse effects,” said Jon Gottschalck, a meteorologist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, referring to a historic Arctic outbreak that brought dangerous cold and snowy conditions to the central and southern U.S. in February.

Hotter-than-average temperatures this spring and low soil moisture will fuel and expand drought conditions in the southern and central Great Plains and southern Florida, forecasters said. In the northern Plains, drought conditions could grow worse depending on how much rainfall the area experiences.

“This spring, we anticipate a reduced risk for flooding, and forecast significantly below average water supply where impacts due to low flow contribute to the continued drought,” Ed Clark, director of NOAA’s National Water Center in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, said in a statement on Thursday.

Climate change has worsened droughts and other extreme weather like hurricanes and heavy flooding across the country. Researchers also suggest that global warming has pushed the U.S. Southwest into a decades-long megadrought.

2020 tied with 2016 as the hottest year on record, which marked the end of the hottest decade as global temperatures increase due to greenhouse gas emissions trapping heat in the atmosphere.

Millions sign up to anti-food-waste apps to share their unused produce

Harriet Sherwood

With the average UK family throwing out £730 of surplus items a year, eco-conscious consumers have found a hi-tech fix

About a third of all food produced globally is wasted, according to the UN. Photograph: Paul Weston/Alamy

About a third of all food produced globally is wasted, according to the UN. Photograph: Paul Weston/Alamy

There is such a thing as a free lunch, it turns out, as long as you don’t mind too much what it is. Tamara Wilson found hers a few streets away from her west London home – and as well as picking up some unwanted bread and fruit that would otherwise be thrown away, she made a new friend.

Wilson* is one of 3.4 million people around the world using an app designed to encourage people to give away rather than throw away surplus food. “It’s such a small thing, but it makes me feel good and my neighbour feel good. And a lot of small acts can end up making a big difference,” she said.

The last few years have seen an explosion in creative ways to tackle food waste by linking supermarkets, cafes, restaurants and individual households to local communities.

Olio, the app used by Wilson, saw a fivefold increase in listings during 2020, and the signs are that this “stratospheric growth” is continuing into 2021, said Tessa Clarke, its CEO and co-founder.

Too Good To Go, where consumers pay a heavily discounted price for food and meals that would otherwise be discarded, has seen 4.5 million downloads of its app in the UK, and 34 million globally since it launched in 2016 – “and the numbers are growing”, said Paschalis Loucaides, UK managing director.

Other apps tackling food waste include Karma, which has 1.4 million users, and Hubbub, which has created a network of more than 100 “community fridges” in the UK in the past five years – a figure it hopes to double by the end of this year.

About a third of all food produced globally is wasted, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). Apart from the potential to eliminate hunger around the world, such waste makes a devastating contribution to the global climate crisis.

Almost 1.4 billion hectares of land – close to 30% of the world’s agricultural land – is dedicated to producing food that is never eaten; and the carbon footprint of food wastage makes it the third emitter of CO2 after the US and China, according to the FAO. Reducing food waste is one of the most effective ways of tackling the global climate crisis, says Project Drawdown, which ranks the impact of measures on reducing heat-trapping gases.

In the UK, also, about a third of all food is thrown away – half of it in people’s homes. “Each family throws away an average of £730 of food each year,” said Clarke.

Olio, she said, was an attempt to rectify this on a small, local scale. “The app connects people with others who have surplus food but don’t have anyone to give it to because so many people are disconnected from their communities.”

Users of Olio post images of surplus food that others in the neighbourhood might want. Olio also has a network of 24,000 volunteers who collect surplus food from local supermarkets and stores for app users to claim. “It feels good to share. It’s an example of positivity in a pretty grim world,” said Clarke.

Too Good To Go partners with cafes, restaurants, supermarkets, hotels and independent food retailers to create “magic bags” priced at about a third of the retail price, said Loucaides. “The customer picks up whatever is left over at the end of the day. We don’t pick and choose.”

Despite the success of the app, it was hard to make a dent in the huge scale of food waste, he added. “Even though we’re doing well, we’ve hardly scratched the surface. It’s very challenging.”

The UK’s first food waste action week took place earlier this month. Television chef Nadiya Hussain, who fronted the campaign, said: “Wasting food is a major contributor to climate change. And it isn’t just the leftovers on our plate to consider but the many resources that go into producing our food, like water and land. If we each make small changes, we’d dramatically reduce the amount of food that ends up in the bin.”

*Name has been changed

Drowned land: hunger stalks South Sudan's flooded villages

Susan Martinez, photography by Peter Caton

Two years of torrential rains have left 1.6m people in Jonglei province without crops and with their homes flooded. But, with extraordinary resilience, people in Old Fangak are working together to rebuild their lives.

After the unprecedented floods last summer, the people of Old Fangak, a small town in northern South Sudan, should be planting now. But the flood water has not receded, the people are still marooned and now they are facing severe hunger.

Unusually heavy rains began last July, and the White Nile burst its banks, destroyed all the crops and encroached on farms and villages, affecting Jonglei and other states, leaving people to scramble for a few strips of dry land.

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Fields are still submerged, mud homes and stiff sticks of dead maize are slowly collapsing into the water, entire villages have been abandoned and large areas turned into swamps. Of the 62 villages served by Old Fangak’s central market, 45 are devastated by the flooded river.

 
‘Nothing. I couldn’t rescue any of my crops. All were destroyed.’ Nyayua Thang, 62, at Wangchot primary school. She hasn’t eaten in days

‘Nothing. I couldn’t rescue any of my crops. All were destroyed.’ Nyayua Thang, 62, at Wangchot primary school. She hasn’t eaten in days

 

The July harvest would have fed the local people through to this spring but all the crops were lost. Families sleep in abandoned schools or in the open on scraps of higher land. There is no question of migrating to dry areas as the flood extends for miles and at least Old Fangak is secluded from the constant conflict that besets much of the rest of the country.

The UN says that about 1.6 million people have been affected by the floods in a country where already at least 7.5 million people need assistance. A recent report by the Integrated food security Phase Classification, (IPC), an initiative by 15 organisations to tackle malnutrition, estimates that 6.4 million people, about half the population, will face acute food insecurity in 2021, and for half of them their lack of food will be an emergency.

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Data from South Sudan suggests that more erratic and unpredictable weather patterns are now the norm.

The floods were caused by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), also known as the “Indian El Niño, a weather pattern discovered only in 1999. The strongest IOD to strike east Africa in 61 years happened in 2019. So when the rains arrived in 2020 in South Sudan, the water from the previous year had not yet receded, resulting in more devastating floods. This year’s rainfall could further worsen the situation, making the resultant hunger catastrophic.

‘We always feel weak during the day because of the mosquito bites during the night.’ Nyapata Thiel in the classroom that has become a shelter for many in the community

‘We always feel weak during the day because of the mosquito bites during the night.’ Nyapata Thiel in the classroom that has become a shelter for many in the community

“People will die of hunger. Everyone in Old Fangak is lacking food and lost what they cultivated. Hunger is the one that will kill people,” says Peter Kak, a fisherman and grandfather of five who lives on a grass island with his son Samuel. The two men stayed behind after sending the rest of the family to higher ground. Here, they fish every day.

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“Flooding, conflict, Covid-19 and poverty make the situation here dire,” says Sulaiman Sesay, of Action Against Hunger, one of the few aid organisations active in this area of South Sudan. “The world needs to know that people are suffering in this way.”

The socioeconomic measures adopted in response to the pandemic have affected already critical hunger situations in vulnerable places such as South Sudan. A joint report by the World Food Programme and the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that threatening global hunger levels seem to be reaching new highs.

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In Old Fangak people grew sorghum, a cereal that is easy to cultivate. Now they can eat only water lilies and fish. But not everyone has fishing nets and for those who do the catches are rarely enough to satisfy the appetite.

“There’s not enough sorghum, so we have to resort to the water lily,” explains Samuel Gai. The flowers have to be collected in great numbers to grind and make a small amount of cereal.

Despite the severity of the floods, the people of Old Fangak refuse to give up. In the face of rising waters, hunger and isolation from the rest of the country, the community shows extraordinary resilience.

“We cooperate,” says Joseph Martin, a villager helping to repair the constantly collapsing airstrip dyke. “The women take the water out with buckets and we put the mud on the dykes to prevent water leaking in. They do their part and we do our part.

“When there is work, men and women work together and they cooperate. Some of the people come and work even without us asking them … this is how we do it, if there is work to save the town, we work together,.”

Moving water by the bucketload all day takes a huge toll on hungry people. “Because of this water, I’ve lost weight. We are doing this alone, all day and night throwing water over the dyke. Nobody comes to help us. We are all exhausted,” says Nyayen Chuol, who works on the dyke with her elderly mother.

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Where dykes have already been breached many people move on to neighbours’ homes and start again, helping to keep other dykes strong.

“I’m worried all the time. At night I’m trying to stay awake with a fire so I can burn a bit of grass and go check if the dyke is leaking or about to break. Every night. I’m so worried I can’t even sleep thinking that if I fall asleep the dyke could break and I can drown,” says Nyayang Kich, who had to abandon her flooded home for the higher ground of her neighbour.

The water sitting stagnant is compromising health too, leading to a spike in malaria-carrying mosquitoes.

‘We are surrounded by water and have nowhere to run.’ Nyakeak Rambong, 70

‘We are surrounded by water and have nowhere to run.’ Nyakeak Rambong, 70

“The climate has changed from the years when I was young because we have never experienced floods like this before. What we are experiencing now is horrible. We are suffering from hunger and we didn’t before. The climate has changed. For old people it’s horrible. It’s hard moving in this water; we don’t know where to sleep or what to eat. We are in God’s hands,” says 83-year-old Mary Nyamat.

Plastic particles pass from mothers into foetuses, rat study shows

Damian Carrington

Nanoparticles found in foetal brains and hearts, but impact on human health is as yet unknown

Microplastic pollution has reached every part of the planet, from the summit of Mount Everest to the deepest oceans. Photograph: a-ts/Alamy Stock Photo

Microplastic pollution has reached every part of the planet, from the summit of Mount Everest to the deepest oceans. Photograph: a-ts/Alamy Stock Photo

Nanoparticles found in foetal brains and hearts, but impact on human health is as yet unknown

Tiny plastic particles in the lungs of pregnant rats pass rapidly into the hearts, brains and other organs of their foetuses, research shows. It is the first study in a live mammal to show that the placenta does not block such particles.

The experiments also showed that the rat foetuses exposed to the particles put on significantly less weight towards the end of gestation. The research follows the revelation in December of small plastic particles in human placentas, which scientists described as “a matter of great concern”. Earlier laboratory research on human placentas donated by mothers after birth has also shown polystyrene beads can cross the placental barrier.

Microplastic pollution has reached every part of the planet, from the summit of Mount Everest to the deepest oceans, and people are already known to consume the tiny particles via food and water, and to breathe them in.

The health impact of tiny plastic particles in the body is as yet unknown. But scientists say there is an urgent need to assess the issue, particularly for developing foetuses and babies, as plastics can carry chemicals that could cause long-term damage.

Prof Phoebe Stapleton, at Rutgers University, who led the rat research, said: “We found the plastic nanoparticles everywhere we looked – in the maternal tissues, in the placenta and in the foetal tissues. We found them in the foetal heart, brain, lungs, liver and kidney.”

Dunzhu Li, at Trinity College Dublin (TCD) in Ireland and not part of the study team, said: “This study is very important because it proves the potential to transfer [plastic particles] in mammal pregnancy – maybe it is happening from the very beginning of human life as well. The particles were found almost everywhere in the foetus and can also pass through the blood-brain barrier – it is very shocking.”

Prof John Boland, also at TCD, said: “It is however important not to over-interpret these results. The nanoparticles used are near spherical in shape, whereas real microplastics are irregular flake-like objects. Shape matters, as it dictates how particles interact with their environment.” In October, Li, Boland and colleagues showed that babies fed formula milk in plastic bottles are swallowing millions of particles a day.

The rat study was published in the journal Particle and Fibre Toxicology and involved placing nanoparticles in the trachea of the animals. Stapleton said the number of particles used was estimated to be the equivalent of 60% of the number a human mother would be exposed to in a day, although Li’s opinion was that this estimate was too high.

The 20 nanometre beads used were made of polystyrene, which is one of the top five plastics found in the environment, said Stapleton. They were marked with a fluorescent chemical to enable them to be identified. A separate experiment showed that the nanoparticles crossed the placenta about 90 minutes after the mothers were exposed.

Twenty four hours after exposure, the weight of the foetuses was an average of 7% lower than in control animals, and placental weights were 8% lower. Weight loss was also seen in other experiments using titanium dioxide particles. The rats were exposed to the plastic nanoparticles on day 19 of gestation, two days ahead of the usual time for birth and when the foetus is gaining the most weight.

“Our working theory is that something in the maternal vasculature changes, so you get a reduction in blood flow, which in turn leads to a reduction in nutrient and oxygen delivery,” said Stapleton.

She said more research was needed: “This study answers some questions and opens up other questions. We now know the particles are able to cross into the foetal compartment, but we don’t know if they’re lodged there or if the body just walls them off, so there’s no additional toxicity.”

Stapleton said the nanoparticles used in her research were a million times smaller than the microplastics found in human placentas, and therefore currently much more challenging to identify in human studies. “But we know nanoparticles have greater toxicity than the microparticles of the same chemical, as smaller particles get deeper into the lungs.”

The next step for the researchers is to place the rats in an “inhalation chamber”, where the particles can be breathed in, rather than being placed in the trachea. This also allows the assessment of chronic exposure, in which lower doses are given over longer periods, rather than one large dose.

Previous research in rats has shown that silver and carbon nanoparticles pass from mother to foetus and harm health. In humans, gold nanoparticles breathed in were then found in the blood and urine of volunteers and were still present after three months.

Sendai Framework 6th anniversary: Time to recognize there is no such thing as a natural disaster - we're doing it to ourselves

Denis McClean
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction

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GENEVA, 18 March 2021 – The world is losing ground in the battle to reduce disaster losses by failing to act on early warnings, eliminate risk and invest in disaster prevention.

That was the verdict delivered today by the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Disaster Risk Reduction, Mami Mizutori, in a statement to mark six years of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030), the global plan adopted by UN Member States to reduce disaster risk and disaster losses on 18 March 2015 in the tsunami-devastated city of Sendai, Japan.

“As we mark the 6th anniversary of the adoption of the Sendai Framework, it is time to recognize that there is no such thing as a natural disaster.  The world – low income and middle-income countries in particular – is being devastated by a mistaken notion of human progress. The global use of fossil fuels, the lack of international cooperation in support of developing countries and their health systems, the destruction of the environment, unplanned urbanization and unchecked poverty are all driving up the frequency and intensity of disaster events.

“Six years ago, UN Member States included health and biological hazards in the Sendai Framework as a key area of focus if we were to be successful in our stated goals of reducing loss of life and reducing economic losses. Unfortunately, five years later the COVID-19 pandemic arrived, and few countries had equipped themselves to deal with it.

“The result is 120 million cases so far and 2.6 million deaths in a tragedy which has dwarfed all other major disasters experienced so far this century including the Indian Ocean tsunami and the Haiti earthquake which together claimed a total of 450,000 lives. COVID-19 was a disaster that the Sendai Framework was intended to prevent with its clear focus on the importance of health measures for reducing disaster risk.

“The recovery from COVID-19 is an opportunity to re-set priorities to ensure that the 21st century is one in which we act decisively to reduce the existential threats that are building up everywhere and threatening our survival as a species.”

Study predicts the oceans will start emitting ozone-depleting CFCs

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

The world's oceans are a vast repository for gases including ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs. They absorb these gases from the atmosphere and draw them down to the deep, where they can remain sequestered for centuries and more.

Marine CFCs have long been used as tracers to study ocean currents, but their impact on atmospheric concentrations was assumed to be negligible. Now, MIT researchers have found the oceanic fluxes of at least one type of CFC, known as CFC-11, do in fact affect atmospheric concentrations. In a study appearing today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the team reports that the global ocean will reverse its longtime role as a sink for the potent ozone-depleting chemical.

The researchers project that by the year 2075, the oceans will emit more CFC-11 back into the atmosphere than they absorb, emitting detectable amounts of the chemical by 2130. Further, with increasing climate change, this shift will occur 10 years earlier. The emissions of CFC-11 from the ocean will effectively extend the chemical's average residence time, causing it to linger five years longer in the atmosphere than it otherwise would. This may impact future estimations of CFC-11 emissions.

The new results may help scientists and policymakers better pinpoint future sources of the chemical, which is now banned worldwide under the Montreal Protocol.

"By the time you get to the first half of the 22nd century, you'll have enough of a flux coming out of the ocean that it might look like someone is cheating on the Montreal Protocol, but instead, it could just be what's coming out of the ocean," says study co-author Susan Solomon, the Lee and Geraldine Martin Professor of Environmental Studies in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences. "It's an interesting prediction and hopefully will help future researchers avoid getting confused about what's going on."

Solomon's co-authors include lead author Peidong Wang, Jeffery Scott, John Marshall, Andrew Babbin, Megan Lickley, and Ronald Prinn from MIT; David Thompson of Colorado State University; Timothy DeVries of the University of California at Santa Barbara; and Qing Liang of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

An ocean, oversaturated

CFC-11 is a chlorofluorocarbon that was commonly used to make refrigerants and insulating foams. When emitted to the atmosphere, the chemical sets off a chain reaction that ultimately destroys ozone, the atmospheric layer that protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation. Since 2010, the production and use of the chemical has been phased out worldwide under the Montreal Protocol, a global treaty that aims to restore and protect the ozone layer.

Since its phaseout, levels of CFC-11 in the atmosphere have been steadily declining, and scientists estimate that the ocean has absorbed about 5 to 10 percent of all manufactured CFC-11 emissions. As concentrations of the chemical continue to fall in the atmosphere, however, it's predicted that CFC-11 will oversaturate in the ocean, pushing it to become a source rather than a sink.

"For some time, human emissions were so large that what was going into the ocean was considered negligible," Solomon says. "Now, as we try to get rid of human emissions, we find we can't completely ignore what the ocean is doing anymore."

A weakening reservoir

In their new paper, the MIT team looked to pinpoint when the ocean would become a source of the chemical, and to what extent the ocean would contribute to CFC-11 concentrations in the atmosphere. They also sought to understand how climate change would impact the ocean's ability to absorb the chemical in the future.

The researchers used a hierarchy of models to simulate the mixing within and between the ocean and atmosphere. They began with a simple model of the atmosphere and the upper and lower layers of the ocean, in both the northern and southern hemispheres. They added into this model anthropogenic emissions of CFC-11 that had previously been reported through the years, then ran the model forward in time, from 1930 to 2300, to observe changes in the chemical's flux between the ocean and the atmosphere.

They then replaced the ocean layers of this simple model with the MIT general circulation model, or MITgcm, a more sophisticated representation of ocean dynamics, and ran similar simulations of CFC-11 over the same time period.

Both models produced atmospheric levels of CFC-11 through the present day that matched with recorded measurements, giving the team confidence in their approach. When they looked at the models' future projections, they observed that the ocean began to emit more of the chemical than it absorbed, beginning around 2075. By 2145, the ocean would emit CFC-11 in amounts that would be detectable by current monitoring standards.

The ocean's uptake in the 20th century and outgassing in the future also affects the chemical's effective residence time in the atmosphere, decreasing it by several years during uptake and increasing it by up to 5 years by the end of 2200.

Climate change will speed up this process. The team used the models to simulate a future with global warming of about 5 degrees Celsius by the year 2100, and found that climate change will advance the ocean's shift to a source by 10 years and produce detectable levels of CFC-11 by 2140.

"Generally, a colder ocean will absorb more CFCs," Wang explains. "When climate change warms the ocean, it becomes a weaker reservoir and will also outgas a little faster."

"Even if there were no climate change, as CFCs decay in the atmosphere, eventually the ocean has too much relative to the atmosphere, and it will come back out," Solomon adds. "Climate change, we think, will make that happen even sooner. But the switch is not dependent on climate change."

Their simulations show that the ocean's shift will occur slightly faster in the Northern Hemisphere, where large-scale ocean circulation patterns are expected to slow down, leaving more gases in the shallow ocean to escape back to the atmosphere. However, knowing the exact drivers of the ocean's reversal will require more detailed models, which the researchers intend to explore.

"Some of the next steps would be to do this with higher-resolution models and focus on patterns of change," says Scott. "For now, we've opened up some great new questions and given an idea of what one might see."

Government to announce £1bn fund to help reduce emissions

Fiona Harvey

Energy secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said the UK was ‘showing the world how to cut emissions’. Photograph: Barcroft Media/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

Energy secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said the UK was ‘showing the world how to cut emissions’. Photograph: Barcroft Media/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

Funding given to industrial decarbonisation and reducing impact of schools and hospitals

The government will spend more than £1bn helping schools, hospitals and industry to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and encourage the growth of new low-carbon technologies in the UK, under plans set out on Wednesday.

Kwasi Kwarteng, secretary of state for business, energy and industrial strategy said: “We were the first major economy to put into law our target to end our contribution to climate change, and today we’re taking steps to be the first major economy to have its own low-carbon industrial sector. Ahead of Cop26 [the UN climate summit to be hosted in Glasgow this November], the UK is showing the world how we can cut emissions, create jobs and unleash private investment and economic growth.”

However, the £1bn does not represent new spending, but refers to already announced spending that is now being allocated to specific projects.

The launch of the industrial decarbonisation strategy comes as the UK prepares to host vital UN climate talks, called Cop26, postponed from last November owing to the Covid-19 pandemic, and the day after the government’s integrated review of defence and foreign policy placed the climate crisis as the UK’s “foremost international priority”.

The government has allocated £171m to an industrial decarbonisation fund, to be split among projects including hydrogen gas and carbon capture and storage technology at sites in Merseyside, Teesside, Humber and Wales, and offshore engineering works in Scotland. The government said the strategy would create about 80,000 jobs over the next 30 years, with the aim of cutting emissions from industry by two-thirds in the next 15 years.

Separately, about £932m will be spent on 429 projects upgrading public buildings, including schools and hospitals, with heat pumps, solar panels and insulation. Areas to benefit include Manchester, where 36 schools and 22 leisure centres will be upgraded, as well as the transport authority, police and fire service, for about £78m; Leicester, where the city council will receive £24m for upgrading 93 buildings including 56 schools; and £24m for Hertfordshire county council to upgrade 183 council buildings, including 74 schools and 23 emergency service buildings.

The plans for public buildings stand in stark contrast to the government’s scheme for helping people upgrade their draughty homes, which make up 14% of the UK’s total emissions. The green homes grant scheme, originally intended to be worth about £1.5bn, has had most of that funding withdrawn after a troubled start, including builders left unpaid and homeowners unable to get help.

Ed Mathew, campaigns director at green thinktank E3G, said: “This will help slash carbon emissions [from public sector organisations] while helping them to save millions on their energy bills – it’s a no-brainer. The government now needs to put in place a long-term funding programme to help all households to do the same, following recent cuts to the flagship Green Homes Grant scheme.”

Ed Miliband, Labour’s shadow business secretary, contrasted the government’s industrial plans with other countries’ efforts towards a green recovery from the Covid19 crisis, and said the strategy did not go far enough.

“Once again, the government talks a big game on green but doesn’t deliver with nearly the scale or ambition that’s necessary. None of this money is new – these announcements simply allocate money already announced,” he pointed out. “Strip away the rhetoric and we see the fact that while Germany is investing €7bn (£5.9bn) in a hydrogen strategy, our government is investing a tiny fraction of that. We need an ambitious green stimulus to support industry to decarbonise ​and secure jobs for the long-term, starting with a £30bn green recovery. The government has failed to deliver yet again.”

Kat Kramer, climate policy lead at Christian Aid charity, said: “The government dismally continues to offer sops to the fossil fuel industry, including through nods to hydrogen produced from polluting fossil fuels and unproven-at-scale technologies like carbon capture and storage. Instead, the government need to focus on deep emissions cuts, while supporting a just transition to new green jobs for fossil fuel workers, and not propping up the very companies that have caused the climate crisis.”

One of the key elements of the industrial strategy will be to help the steel industry reach net zero emissions. Coking coal is essential to making steel and is the subject of a major row over a proposed new coalmine in Cumbria. Proponents of the mine say that the coking coal it may produce will continue to be needed despite efforts to reduce emissions, but opponents say that to meet the UK’s net zero targets the industry will have to invest in alternatives.

Under the new strategy, the government wants steel-makers to reach net zero by 2035, which would imply phasing out coking coal at least by that date. Roz Bulleid, deputy policy director at the Green Alliance thinktank, said: “The country needs to move quickly if our steel industry is not to be left behind. Other countries, such as Germany and Sweden, already have trials in place for low carbon steel-making using hydrogen. It is becoming increasingly clear that the future of the steel industry will need to be based around clean steel that does not add to our carbon footprint.”

Industry representatives welcomed the government’s decarbonisation strategy. Rain Newton-Smith, chief economist at the CBI employers’ organisation, said: “Creating and championing competitive low-carbon industries will ensure the benefits of a green economic recovery, and the longer term transition to net zero, are shared across the country. Ahead of Cop26, this is a welcome demonstration of the UK’s commitment to act on climate change, to make our post-pandemic recovery a green one, and to give businesses the certainty they need to invest in the technologies of the future.”

Stephen Phipson, chief executive of Make UK, the manufacturers’ organisation, said: “The promise of financial help is critical. Britain’s big corporations have large ringfenced budgets for green initiatives, but our smaller firms will need support to make sure they are able to make the changes necessary to ensure the UK meets its carbon targets, and that they can benefit from the dramatic changes to the way industry will work in the coming years.”

There's no proof the Oxford vaccine causes blood clots. So why are people worried?

David Spiegelhalter

It’s human nature to spot patterns in data. But we should be careful about finding causal links where none may exist

A health worker holds up the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine at a vaccination centre in Barry, Wales. Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

A health worker holds up the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine at a vaccination centre in Barry, Wales. Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

Stories about people getting blood clots soon after taking the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine have become a source of anxiety among European leaders. After a report on a death and three hospitalisations in Norway, which found serious blood clotting in adults who had received the vaccine, Ireland has temporarily suspended the jab. Some anxiety about a new vaccine is understandable, and any suspected reactions should be investigated. But in the current circumstances we need to think slow as well as fast, and resist drawing causal links between events where none may exist.

As Ireland’s deputy chief medical officer, Ronan Glynn, has stressed, there is no proof that this vaccine causes blood clots. It’s a common human tendency to attribute a causal effect between different events, even when there isn’t one present: we wash the car and the next day a bird relieves itself all over the bonnet. Typical. Or, more seriously, someone is diagnosed with autism after receiving the MMR vaccine, so people assume a causal connection – even when there isn’t one. And now, people get blood clots after having a vaccine, leading to concern over whether the vaccine is what caused the blood clots.

Call it luck, chance or fate – it’s difficult to incorporate this into our thinking. So when the European Medicines Agency says there have been 30 “thromboembolic events” after around 5m vaccinations, the crucial question to ask is: how many would be expected anyway, in the normal run of things?

We can try a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation. Deep vein thromboses (DVTs) happen to around one person per 1,000 each year, and probably more in the older population being vaccinated. Working on the basis of these figures, out of 5 million people getting vaccinated, we would expect significantly more than 5,000 DVTs a year, or at least 100 every week. So it is not at all surprising that there have been 30 reports.

It would be so much easier if we had a group of people exactly like those being vaccinated but who didn’t get jabbed. This would tell us how many serious events we could expect to happen to people that were the result of sheer bad luck. Fortunately, we do have such a group. In the trials that led to the vaccines being approved in the UK, volunteers were randomly allocated to receive either the active vaccine or a dummy injection. Everyone then reported any harms they experienced, but crucially nobody knew if they had received the real stuff or an inert injection. By comparing the numbers of reports from the two groups, we can see how many “reactions” were really owing to the active ingredients, and how many were linked to the vaccination process, or would have happened anyway.

Some kind of adverse events were reported by 38% of those receiving the real vaccine but, rather remarkably, 28% of those who received the dummy also reported a side-effect. This shows that the vaccination process itself causes about two-thirds of all the reported harm. Of more than 24,000 participants, fewer than 1% reported a serious adverse event, and of these 168 people, slightly more had received the dummy than the active vaccine. So there was no evidence of increased risk from taking the AstraZeneca vaccine. The Pfizer trials had similar results, with more mild or moderate adverse events in the vaccine group but almost identical numbers of serious events.

Trials are short and comparatively small, and tend to include healthy people, so we need to collect real-world data as the vaccines are rolled out. In the UK, adverse reactions are reported using the “yellow card” system, which dates back to the days when doctors filled in yellow cards to report side-effects. Up to 28 February, around 54,000 yellow cards have been reported for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, from around 10 million vaccinations given (the Pfizer vaccine has a slightly lower rate). So for both vaccines, the overall reporting rate is around three to six reports per 1,000 jabs. That means a far greater number of side-effects are reported in the trials than through the yellow card system (of course, one factor in this underreporting may be the yellow card website, which appears designed for medical professionals rather than patients experiencing side-effects).

The vast majority of the side-effects reported through the yellow card system and in randomised trials are reports of direct reactions to the jab, such as a sore arm, or subsequent general flu-like symptoms of headache, tiredness, fever and so on, which subside in a few days. The most serious problem is anaphylactic reactions, and the advice is not to inject anyone with a previous history of allergic reactions to either a prior dose of the vaccine or its ingredients.

So far, these vaccines have shown themselves to be extraordinarily safe. In fact, it’s perhaps surprising that we haven’t heard more stories of adverse effects. There could well be some extremely rare event that is triggered by Covid-19 vaccines, but there is no sign of this yet. We can just hope that this message gets through to those who are still hesitant because of the misinformation that has been spread about the supposed harm of vaccines, and the unhelpful comments made by some European politicians.

Will we ever be able to resist the urge to find causal relationships between different events? One way of doing this would be promoting the scientific method and ensuring everyone understands this basic principle. Testing a hypothesis helps us see which hunches or assumptions are correct and which aren’t. In this way, randomised trials have proved the effectiveness of some Covid treatments and saved vast numbers of lives, while also showing us that some overblown claims about treatments for Covid-19, such as hydroxychloroquine and convalescent plasma, were incorrect.

But I don’t think we can ever fully rationalise ourselves out of the basic and often creative urge to find patterns even where none exist. Perhaps we can just hope for some basic humility before claiming we know why something has happened.

Nurses fight conspiracy theories along with coronavirus

ALI SWENSON & DAVID KLEPPER

Charlie Riedel

Charlie Riedel

Los Angeles emergency room nurse Sandra Younan spent the last year juggling long hours as she watched many patients struggle with the coronavirus and some die.

Then there were the patients who claimed the virus was fake or coughed in her face, ignoring mask rules. One man stormed out of the hospital after a positive COVID-19 test, refusing to believe it was accurate.

“You have patients that are literally dying, and then you have patients that are denying the disease,” she said. “You try to educate and you try to educate, but then you just hit a wall.”

Bogus claims about the virus, masks and vaccines have exploded since COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic a year ago. Journalists, public health officials and tech companies have tried to push back against the falsehoods, but much of the job of correcting misinformation has fallen to the world’s front-line medical workers.

In Germany, a video clip showing a nurse using an empty syringe while practicing vaccinations traveled widely online as purported evidence that COVID-19 is fake. Doctors in Afghanistan reported patients telling them COVID-19 was created by the U.S. and China to reduce the world population. In Bolivia, medical workers had to care for five people who ingested a toxic bleaching agent falsely touted as a COVID-19 cure.

Younan, 27, says her friends used to describe her as the “chillest person ever,” but now she deals with crushing anxiety.

“My life is being a nurse, so I don’t care if you’re really sick, you throw up on me, whatever,” Younan said. “But when you know what you’re doing is wrong, and I’m asking you repeatedly to please wear your mask to protect me, and you’re still not doing it, it’s like you have no regard for anybody but yourself. And that’s why this virus is spreading. It just makes you lose hope.”

Emily Scott, 36, who is based at a Seattle hospital, has worked around the world on medical missions and helped care for the first U.S. COVID-19 patient last year. She was selected because of her experience working in Sierra Leone during the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak.

While many Americans were terrified of Ebola — a disease that isn't nearly as contagious as the coronavirus and poses little threat in the U.S. — they aren't nearly afraid enough of COVID-19, she said.

Scott blames a few factors: Ebola’s frightening symptoms, racism against Africans and the politicization of COVID-19 by American elected officials.

“I felt so much safer in Sierra Leone during Ebola than I did at the beginning of this outbreak in the U.S.,” Scott said, because of how many people failed to heed social distancing and mask directives. “Things that are facts, and science, have become politicized.”

ER nurse L'Erin Ogle has heard a litany of false claims about the virus while working at a hospital in the suburbs of Kansas City, Missouri. They include: The virus isn’t any worse than the flu. It’s caused by 5G wireless towers. Masks won’t help and may hurt. Or, the most painful to her: The virus isn’t real, and doctors and nurses are engaged in a vast global conspiracy to hide the truth.

“It just feels so defeating, and it makes you question: Why am I doing this?” said Ogle, 40.

Nurses are often the health care providers with the most patient contact, and patients frequently view nurses as more approachable, according to professor Maria Brann, an expert on health communication at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis. That means nurses are more likely to encounter patients spreading misinformation, which gives them a special opportunity to intervene.

“Nurses have always been patient advocates, but this pandemic has thrown so much more at them,” Brann said. “It can definitely take a toll. This isn’t necessarily what they signed up for.”

In some cases, it's nurses and other health care workers themselves spreading misinformation. And many nurses say they encounter falsehoods about the coronavirus vaccine in their own families.

For Brenda Olmos, 31, a nurse practitioner in Austin, Texas, who focuses on a geriatric and Hispanic patient population, it was a no-brainer to get the vaccine. But first she had to debate her parents, who had heard unsubstantiated claims that the shot would cause infertility and Bell’s palsy on Spanish-language TV shows.

Olmos eventually convinced her parents to get the vaccine, too, but she worries about vaccine hesitancy in her community.

When she recently encountered an elderly patient with cancerous tumors, Olmos knew the growths had taken years to develop. But the man’s adult children who had recently gotten him the vaccine insisted that the two were connected.

“To them, it just seemed too coincidental," Olmos said. "I just wanted them to not have that guilt.”

Olmos said the real problem with misinformation is not just bad actors spreading lies — it’s people believing false claims because they aren’t as comfortable navigating often complex medical findings.

“Low health literacy is the real pandemic,” she said. “As health care providers, we have a duty to serve the information in a way that’s palatable, and that’s easy to understand, so that people don’t consume misinformation because they can’t digest the real data.”

When Texas Gov. Greg Abbott lifted the state's mask mandate this month against the guidance of many scientists, nurse practitioner Guillermo Carnegie called the decision a “spit in the face.”

“I was disgusted,” said Carnegie, 34, of Temple, Texas. “This governor, and different people, they act like, ‘Oh, we’re proud of our front-line workers, we support them.’ But then they do something like that, and it taxes the medical field tremendously.”

Brian Southwell, who started a program at Duke University School of Medicine to train medical professionals how to talk to misinformed patients, said providers should view the patient confiding in them as an opportunity.

“That patient trusts you enough to raise that information with you," Southwell said. "And so that’s a good thing, even if you disagree with it.”

He said medical workers should resist going into “academic argumentation mode” and instead find out why patients hold certain beliefs — and whether they might be open to other ideas.

That act of listening is imperative to building trust, according to Dr. Seema Yasmin, a physician, journalist and Stanford University professor who studies medical misinformation.

Italy braces for widespread closures as Covid cases rise

Agence France

Schools, restaurants and shops expected to shut with hospitals under strain from new wave

A closed shop in the red zone town of Frosinone, Lazio. More than 100,000 people have died with Covid in Italy. Photograph: Yara Nardi/Reuters

A closed shop in the red zone town of Frosinone, Lazio. More than 100,000 people have died with Covid in Italy. Photograph: Yara Nardi/Reuters

Italy’s government is expected to announce the closure of schools, restaurants and shops across most of the country as a new wave of coronavirus infections puts hospitals under strain.

The prime minister, Mario Draghi, will hold a mid-morning cabinet meeting on Friday to decide new restrictions for the eurozone’s third-largest economy, which on Thursday recorded almost 26,000 new Covid-19 cases and 373 deaths.

More than 100,000 people with coronavirus have died in Italy since the pandemic swept the country a year ago, sparking a months-long lockdown and the worst recession since the second world war.

With new, more contagious variants now widespread, Italy’s more populated northern regions such as Lombardy, which includes Milan, will reportedly join several others in being classified as the highest-risk “red zones” from Monday, as will Calabria in the south.

Caputure  2.PNG

Lazio, the region that includes Rome, could also join them, although the situation is uncertain.

Draghi’s new national unity government tightened restrictions for red zones earlier this month to include not just the closure of bars, restaurants, shops and high schools but also primary schools. Residents are told to stay home where possible.

Other regions including Tuscany and Liguria are expected to pass into the medium-risk orange zone, with all shops, museums, bars and restaurants closed.

That leaves only Sicily in the lower category of yellow, and Sardinia in the new category of white with hardly any restrictions at all.

Italy began its coronavirus vaccination campaign in late December but, as elsewhere in Europe, it has been dogged by delays in deliveries of the jabs.

Concerns over reported side-effects of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine prompted Italy’s medicines regulator on Thursday to suspend a batch of doses, even while it warned there was no evidence of a link with blood clots.

‘Green’ burials are slowly gaining ground among environmentalists

Rachel Fritts

Awareness of eco-friendly death care is low even as the industry grows

Conservation burial grounds like the Carolina Memorial Sanctuary (pictured) in North Carolina double as a cemetery and nature preserve. GREEN BURIAL COUNCIL

Conservation burial grounds like the Carolina Memorial Sanctuary (pictured) in North Carolina double as a cemetery and nature preserve.
GREEN BURIAL COUNCIL

Despite “green” burials becoming increasingly available in North America, some older eco-conscious adults remain unaware of the option when planning for their deaths, a small study hints.

Green burials do not use concrete vaults, embalm bodies or use pesticides or fertilizers at gravesites. Bodies are buried in a biodegradable container like a pinewood or wicker casket, or a cotton or silk shroud. Proponents of the small but growing trend argue it is more environmentally friendly and in line with how burials were done before the invention of the modern funeral home industry.

But when researchers asked 20 residents of Lawrence, Kan., over the age of 60 who identify as environmentalists if they had considered green burial, most hadn’t heard of the practice. That’s despite the fact that green burial had been available in Lawrence for nearly a decade at the time. More than half of the survey participants planned on cremation, because they viewed it as the eco-friendliest option, the team reported online January 26 in Mortality.

In 2008, Lawrence became the first U.S. city to allow green burials in a publicly owned cemetery. Several years later, at a meeting of an interfaith ecological community organization in the city, sociologist Paul Stock of the University of Kansas in Lawrence and his colleague Mary Kate Dennis noticed that most of the attendees were older adults. These people “live and breathe their environmentalism,” says Dennis, now a social work researcher at the University of Manitoba in Canada. “We were curious if it followed them all the way through to their burials.”

That the majority of participants in the new survey leaned towards cremation aligns with national trends. Cremation recently surpassed traditional burial as the most popular death care choice in the United States. In July 2020, the National Funeral Directors Association projected the cremation rate that year would be 56 percent compared to 38 percent for casket burials. By 2040, the cremation rate is projected to grow to about 78 percent while the burial rate is estimated to shrink to about 16 percent.

Cremation’s growing popularity can be traced to a number of factors, including affordability and concerns about traditional burial’s environmental impacts. But cremation comes with its own environmental cost, releasing hundreds of kilograms of carbon dioxide into the air per body.

The preference for green burial, meanwhile, is small but growing. The Green Burial Council was founded in 2005 to establish green burial standards by certifying green burial sites. Now 14 percent of Americans over age 40 say they would choose green burial, the NFDA reports, and around 62 percent are open to exploring it.

For those who go the green burial route, there now are a variety of commercially available choices. More adventurous options include a burial suit designed to sprout mushrooms as the body decomposes, an egg-shaped burial pod that eventually grows into a tree and human composting (SN: 2/16/20) — a one- to two-month process that turns the body into soil. In 2019, Washington became the first and only U.S. state to legalize human composting. 

Conservation burial cemeteries take the green burial concept a step further by doubling as protected nature preserves. To date, the Green Burial Council has certified over 200 green burial sites and eight conservation burial sites in North America.

Such initiatives showcase a growing awareness that death care choices can have a positive impact on ecosystems, says Lynne Carpenter-Boggs, a soil scientist at Washington State University in Pullman and a research advisor for the Seattle-based human composting company Recompose. But, she cautions, there is still little formal research comparing the environmental impacts of different death care choices.

Stock and Dennis think this lack of research, coupled with a general lack of awareness of green burial as an available choice, could be the reason why many of the environmentalists they spoke with weren’t yet considering it. But as the option becomes more widely available, Dennis says, “it will be interesting to see how that shifts.”

Covid fallout 'undermining nature conservation efforts'

Helen Briggs

GETTY IMAGESI Baby monkey poached in Indonesia

GETTY IMAGESI Baby monkey poached in Indonesia

Covid-19 is taking a "severe toll" on conservation efforts, with multiple environmental protections being rolled back, according to research.

Conservation efforts have been reduced in more than half of Africa's protected areas and a quarter of those in Asia, said the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

And 22 countries are rolling back protection of natural areas.

Protected areas encompass some of the world's most precious ecosystems.

They include pristine forests, wilderness areas and natural habitat that supports endangered species.

IUCN Director General Dr Bruno Oberle said the new research revealed "how severe a toll the Covid-19 pandemic has taken on conservation efforts and on communities dedicated to protecting nature".

He added: "Let us not forget that only by investing in healthy nature can we provide a solid basis for our recovery from the pandemic, and avoid future public health crises."

The research is published in a special edition of an IUCN journal dedicated to areas of the globe protected for nature.

In one paper, researchers looked at government policies on economic recovery put in place between January and October last year that had an impact on the funding and protection of areas for nature.

GETTY IMAGES I Road built through the rainforest

GETTY IMAGES I Road built through the rainforest

They identified some positive examples, with 17 countries, such as New Zealand, Pakistan and eight countries within the EU, maintaining or increasing their support for protected and conserved areas.

In contrast, 22 countries had rolled back protections in favour of unsustainable development including road construction or oil and gas extraction in areas designated for conservation.

Rachel Golden Kroner of Conservation International is a co-chair of the IUCN taskforce looking into the impact of Covid-19 on protected areas, and lead researcher on the study.

She told the BBC: "We found that more funding and more of the economic stimulus has gone towards activities that undermine nature rather than that support it, globally. So we're not yet on the whole moving in the right direction."

In other papers, researchers found:

  • Conservation efforts in Africa and Asia were most severely affected. More than half of protected areas in Africa reported that they were forced to halt or reduce field patrols and anti-poaching operations as well as conservation education and outreach. A quarter of protected areas in Asia also reported that conservation activities had been reduced.

  • The pandemic has affected the livelihoods of protected area rangers and their communities. A survey of rangers in more than 60 countries found that more than one in four rangers had seen their salary reduced or delayed, while 20% reported that they had lost their jobs due to budget cuts. Rangers from Central America and the Caribbean, South America, Africa and Asia were more severely affected than elsewhere.

A sand shortage? The world is running out of a crucial — but under-appreciated — commodity

  • Sand is the world’s most consumed raw material after water and an essential ingredient to our everyday lives.

  • Yet, the world is facing a shortage — and climate scientists say it constitutes one of the greatest sustainability challenges of the 21st century.

  • “Is it time for panicking? Well, that will certainly not help, but it is time to take a look and change our perception about sand,” said Pascal Peduzzi, a climate scientist with the United Nations Environment Programme.

Dozens of trucks dump hundreds of thousands of tons of sand on Miami Beach as part of U.S. government measures to protect Florida’s tourist destinations against the effects of climate change.EVA MARIE UZCATEGUI | AFP | Getty Images

Dozens of trucks dump hundreds of thousands of tons of sand on Miami Beach as part of U.S. government measures to protect Florida’s tourist destinations against the effects of climate change.

EVA MARIE UZCATEGUI | AFP | Getty Images

LONDON — An insatiable global appetite for sand, one of the world’s most important but least appreciated commodities, is unlikely to let up anytime soon. The problem, however, is that this resource is slipping away.

Our entire society is built on sand. It is the world’s most consumed raw material after water and an essential ingredient to our everyday lives.

Sand is the primary substance used in the construction of roads, bridges, high-speed trains and even land regeneration projects. Sand, gravel and rock crushed together are melted down to make the glass used in every window, computer screen and smart phone. Even the production of silicon chips uses sand.

Yet, the world is facing a shortage — and climate scientists say it constitutes one of the greatest sustainability challenges of the 21st century.

“Is it time for panicking? Well, that will certainly not help, but it is time to take a look and change our perception about sand,” Pascal Peduzzi, a climate scientist with the United Nations Environment Programme, said during a webinar hosted by think tank Chatham House.


We never thought we would run out of sand, but it is starting in some places.
— Pascal Peduzzi DIRECTOR OF GRID-GENEVA

Peduzzi, who is the director of UNEP’s Global Resource Information Database in Geneva, Switzerland, described the global governance of sand resources as “the elephant in the room.”

“We just think that sand is everywhere. We never thought we would run out of sand, but it is starting in some places. It is about anticipating what can happen in the next decade or so because if we don’t look forward, if we don’t anticipate, we will have massive problems about sand supply but also about land planning,” he added.

A sand-fueled construction boom

Sand dunes in the Sahara desert.Getty Images

Sand dunes in the Sahara desert.

Getty Images

At present, it is not possible to accurately monitor global sand use. However, Peduzzi said it could be measured indirectly, citing a “very, very good” correlation between the use of sand and cement.

The UN estimates that 4.1 billion tons of cement is produced every year, driven primarily by China, which constitutes 58% of today’s sand-fueled construction boom.

The global use of sand and gravels has been found to be 10 times higher than that of cement. This means that, for construction alone, the world consumes roughly 40 to 50 billion tons of sand on an annual basis. That’s enough to build a wall of 27 meters high by 27 meters wide that wraps around the planet every year.

The global rate of sand use — which has tripled over the last two decades partially as a result of surging urbanization — far exceeds the natural rate at which sand is being replenished by the weathering of rocks by wind and water.

Sand can be found on almost every country on Earth, blanketing deserts and lining coastlines around the world. But that is not to say that all sand is useful. Desert sand grains, eroded by the wind rather than water, is too smooth and rounded to bind together for construction purposes.

The sand that is highly sought after is more angular and can lock together. It is typically sourced and extracted from seabeds, coastlines, quarries and rivers around the world.

‘A grain of change’

Construction cranes and vehicles cover the A10 highway between Paris and Bordeaux with sand on November 6, 2019 near Monts, central France.GUILLAUME SOUVANT | AFP | Getty Images

Construction cranes and vehicles cover the A10 highway between Paris and Bordeaux with sand on November 6, 2019 near Monts, central France.

GUILLAUME SOUVANT | AFP | Getty Images

Louise Gallagher, environmental governance lead at the UNEP/GRID-Geneva’s Global Sand Observatory Initiative, said the issues around sand had become a “diffuse” and “complex” problem to resolve.

For instance, she said the banning of river sand extraction would inevitably have a knock-on effect for the people and communities who rely on this practice to earn a living.

China and India top the list of areas where sand extraction impacts on rivers, lakes and on coastlines, largely as a result of soaring infrastructure and construction demand.

UNEP has previously warned of thriving “sand mafias,” with groups comprising of builders, dealers and businessmen known to be operating in countries such as Cambodia, Vietnam, Kenya and Sierra Leone. Activists working to shine a light on their activities, UNEP said, are being threatened and even killed.

Sand is “perceived as cheap, available and infinite and that is partly because the environmental and social costs are pretty much not priced in,” Gallagher said on Tuesday during the same webinar.

“It seems like we believe the highest use value for this material right now is to extract it from the natural environment rather than keeping it in the system for the other types of benefits we get from it like say, for example, climate resilience in coastal areas,” she continued.

“We need to think about putting a little order on the chaos of that crazy fragmented picture — and that’s happening. That’s the good news. We are not ignoring, I think, this problem any further. It is not as invisible as it used to be.”

Gallagher identified five priorities for sand resource governance over the next two years: cooperation on global standards across all sectors, cost-effective and viable alternatives to river and marine sand, updating environmental, social and corporate governance frameworks in the financial sector to include sand, bringing in ground-level voices and setting regional, national and global goals on sand use at the right scale.

‘No-one is even talking about this issue’

“I’d say a grain of sand can be a grain of change,” said Kiran Pereira, researcher and founder of SandStories.org.

An excavator and a bulldozer are working on the grounds of the gravel plant and the concrete mixing plant of the Max Bögl group of companies.Soeren Stache | picture alliance | Getty Images

An excavator and a bulldozer are working on the grounds of the gravel plant and the concrete mixing plant of the Max Bögl group of companies.

Soeren Stache | picture alliance | Getty Images

“It is important to focus on good things that are happening. Zurich, for example, is building buildings with 98% recycled concrete. The city of Amsterdam has committed to becoming 100% circular by 2050 (and) they aim to halve their natural resource use by 2030. That is the way to go,” Pereira said.

The wake-up call on the global sand shortage, Peduzzi said, came in 2019 when governments recognized the environmental crisis for the first time and the issue was finally placed on the political agenda as a result of a UN resolution.

Unfortunately, Peduzzi told CNBC that the challenge has still not been adequately addressed on the global stage.

“It is still very much new. In many of the development policies, there is no-one even talking about this issue of sand, where it is coming from, the social impacts or the environmental impacts, so there is a lot of things to be done,” he continued.

“Yet, no big plans, no standard on how it should be extracted, no land planning on where you should extract and where you should not extract, no monitoring to where it is coming from in most of the places (and) no enforcement of laws because countries are pondering between development needs and the protection of the environment.”

Looking ahead, industrialization, population growth and urbanization are all trends likely to fuel explosive growth in the demand for sand.

“It’s time to wake up,” Peduzzi said.

Food waste: Amount thrown away totals 900 million tonnes

Victoria Gill

Getty Images

Getty Images

More than 900 million tonnes of food is thrown away every year, according to a global report.

The UN Environment Programme's Food Waste Index revealed that 17% of the food available to consumers - in shops, households and restaurants - goes directly into the bin.

Some 60% of that waste is in the home.

The lockdown appears to have had a surprising impact - at least in the UK - by reducing domestic food waste.

Sustainability charity Wrap, the UN's partner organisation on this report, says people have been planning their shopping and their meals more carefully.

And in an effort to build on that, well-known chefs have been enlisted to inspire less wasteful kitchen habits.

'23 million trucks of food'

Getty Images

Getty Images

The report has highlighted a global problem that is "much bigger than previously estimated," Richard Swannell from Wrap told BBC News.

"The 923 million tonnes of food being wasted each year would fill 23 million 40-tonne trucks. Bumper-to-bumper, enough to circle the Earth seven times."

It is an issue previously considered to be a problem almost exclusive to richer countries - with consumers simply buying more than they could eat - but this research found "substantial" food waste "everywhere it looked".

There are gaps in the findings that could reveal how the scale of the problem varies in low- and high-income countries. The report, for example, could not distinguish between "involuntary" and "voluntary" waste.

Victoria Grill: There is likely to be far less voluntary food waste in low-income countries

Victoria Grill: There is likely to be far less voluntary food waste in low-income countries

"We haven't looked deeper [at this issue] but in low-income countries, the cold chain is not fully assured because of lack of access to energy," Martina Otto from Unep told BBC News.

The data to distinguish between the waste of edible food and inedible parts - like bones and shells - was only available for high-income countries. Lower-income countries, Ms Otto pointed out, were likely to be wasting much less edible food.

But the end result, she said, was that the world was "just throwing away all the resources used to make that food".

Ahead of major global climate and biodiversity summits later this year, Unep executive director Inger Andersen is pushing for countries to commit to combatting waste - halving it by 2030.

"If we want to get serious about tackling climate change, nature and biodiversity loss, and pollution and waste, businesses, governments and citizens around the world have to do their part to reduce food waste," she said.

Richard Swannell pointed out: "Wasted food is responsible for 8-10% of greenhouse gas emissions, so if food waste was a country, it would be the third-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases on the planet."

Tips to reduce food waste:

  • Plan your portions and buy the right amount: a mug should hold the right amount of uncooked rice for four adults, and you can measure a single portion of spaghetti using a 1p or £1 coin;

  • Cool your fridge down: the average UK fridge temperature is almost 7°C. It should be lower than 5°C;

  • Understand date labels: a "use by" date is about food safety. If the use by date has passed, you should not eat or serve it, even if it looks and smells okay. If something is getting close to the use by date, you can freeze it. A "best before" date is about quality.

In the UK, the average household could save £700 per year, according to Wrap research, by buying only the food they ate.

The lockdown effect

Where food waste is voluntary, the Covid-19 lockdown appears to have had the surprising effect of revealing precisely how it can be remedied.

According to research by Wrap, planning, careful storage and batch-cooking during the lockdown reduced people's reported levels of food waste by 22% compared with 2019.

"Being confined to our homes has resulted in an increase in behaviours such as batch cooking and meal planning," the charity said. "But the latest insights suggest that food waste levels are likely to rise again as we emerge from lockdown."

In an effort to avoid that, well-known cooks and chefs have lent their names and social media profiles to the campaign against kitchen waste.

British TV cook Nadiya Hussain is working with Wrap and offering tips and leftovers recipes via Instagram. And Italian restaurateur Massimo Bottura, chef patron of Modena eatery Osteria Francescana, which has three Michelin stars, has been appointed Unep goodwill ambassador "in the fight against food waste and loss".

Throughout the lockdown in Italy, his family produced an online cooking show called Kitchen Quarantine, encouraging people to "see the invisible potential" in every ingredient.

Getty Images: Throwing away food can also mean that resources used to grow it have been wasted

Getty Images: Throwing away food can also mean that resources used to grow it have been wasted

While millions of tonnes of food was thrown away, an estimated 690 million people were affected by hunger in 2019. That number is expected to rise sharply in the wake of the pandemic.

Ms Andersen pointed out that tackling waste "would cut greenhouse gas emissions, slow the destruction of nature through land conversion and pollution, enhance the availability of food and thus reduce hunger and save money at a time of global recession".

More extreme short-duration thunderstorms likely in the future due to global warming

Newcastle University

Climate experts have revealed that rising temperatures will intensify future rainfall extremes at a much greater rate than average rainfall, with largest increases to short thunderstorms.

New research by Newcastle University has shown that warming temperatures in some regions of the UK are the main drivers of increases in extreme short-duration rainfall intensities, which tend to occur in summer and cause dangerous flash flooding.

These intensities are increasing at significantly higher rates than for winter storms. A study, led by Professor Hayley Fowler, of Newcastle University's School of Engineering, highlights the urgent need for climate change adaptation measures as heavier short-term rainfall increases the risk of flash flooding and extreme rainfall globally.

Publishing their findings in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, the international team analysed data from observational, theoretical and modelling studies to examine the intensification of rainfall extremes, what drives these extremes and the impact on flash flooding.

The scientists found that rainfall extremes intensify with warming, generally at a rate consistent with increasing atmospheric moisture, which is what would be expected. However, the study has shown that temperature increases in some regions affect short-duration heavy rainfall extremes more than the increase in atmospheric moisture alone, with local feedbacks in convective cloud systems providing part of the answer to this puzzle.

Professor Fowler said: "We know that climate change is bringing us hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters. But, in the past, we have struggled to capture the detail in extreme rainfall events as these can be highly localised and occur in a matter of hours or even minutes.

"Thanks to our new research, we now know more about how really heavy rainfall might be affected by climate change. Because warmer air holds more moisture, rainfall intensity increases as temperatures rise.

"This new work shows that the increase in intensity is even greater for short and heavy events, meaning localised flash flooding is likely to be a more prominent feature of our future climate."

The findings are also highlighted in a Philosophical Transactions A issue on "Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks" by the Royal Society, which was published on 1 March.

It is unclear whether storm size will increase or decrease with warming. However, the researchers warn that increases in rainfall intensity and the footprint of a storm can compound to substantially increase the total rainfall during an event.

In recent years, short but significantly heavy rainfall events have caused much disruption across the UK. Recent examples include severe flooding and landslides in August 2020 and damage to the Toddbrook Reservoir, in the Peak District, in August 2019.

Information about current and future rainfall intensity is critical for the management of surface water flooding, as well as our guidance for surface water management on new developments and sewer design.

How Green Are Electric Vehicles?

Hiroko Tabuchi and Brad Plumer

In short: Very green. But plug-in cars still have environmental effects. Here’s a guide to the main issues and how they might be addressed.

Around the world, governments and automakers are promoting electric vehicles as a key technology to curb oil use and fight climate change. General Motors has said it aims to stop selling new gasoline-powered cars and light trucks by 2035 and will pivot to battery-powered models. This week, Volvo said it would move even faster and introduce an all-electric lineup by 2030.

But as electric cars and trucks go mainstream, they have faced a persistent question: Are they really as green as advertised?

While experts broadly agree that plug-in vehicles are a more climate-friendly option than traditional vehicles, they can still have their own environmental impacts, depending on how they’re charged up and manufactured. Here’s a guide to some of the biggest worries — and how they might be addressed.

It matters how the electricity is made

Broadly speaking, most electric cars sold today tend to produce significantly fewer planet-warming emissions than most cars fueled with gasoline. But a lot depends on how much coal is being burned to charge up those plug-in vehicles. And electric grids still need to get much, much cleaner before electric vehicles are truly emissions free.

One way to compare the climate impacts of different vehicle models is with this interactive online tool by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who tried to incorporate all the relevant factors: what it takes to manufacture the cars, how much gasoline conventional cars burn and where the electricity to charge electric vehicles comes from.

If you assume electric vehicles are drawing their power from the average grid in the United States, which typically includes a mix of fossil fuel and renewable power plants, then they’re almost always much greener than conventional cars. Even though electric vehicles are more emissions-intensive to make because of their batteries, their electric motors are more efficient than traditional internal combustion engines that burn fossil fuels.

An all-electric Chevrolet Bolt, for instance, can be expected to produce 189 grams of carbon dioxide for every mile driven over its lifetime, on average. By contrast, a new gasoline-fueled Toyota Camry is estimated to produce 385 grams of carbon dioxide per mile. A new Ford F-150 pickup truck, which is even less fuel-efficient, produces 636 grams of carbon dioxide per mile.

But that’s just an average. On the other hand, if the Bolt is charged up on a coal-heavy grid, such as those currently found in the Midwest, it can actually be a bit worse for the climate than a modern hybrid car like the Toyota Prius, which runs on gasoline but uses a battery to bolster its mileage. (The coal-powered Bolt would still beat the Camry and the F-150, however.)

“Coal tends to be the critical factor,” said Jeremy Michalek, a professor of engineering at Carnegie Mellon University. “If you’ve got electric cars in Pittsburgh that are being plugged in at night and leading nearby coal plants to burn more coal to charge them, then the climate benefits won’t be as great, and you can even get more air pollution.”

The good news for electric vehicles is that most countries are now pushing to clean up their electric grids. In the United States, utilities have retired hundreds of coal plants over the last decade and shifted to a mix of lower-emissions natural gas, wind and solar power. As a result, researchers have found, electric vehicles have generally gotten cleaner, too. And they are likely to get cleaner still.

“The reason electric vehicles look like an appealing climate solution is that if we can make our grids zero-carbon, then vehicle emissions drop way, way down,” said Jessika Trancik, an associate professor of energy studies at M.I.T. “Whereas even the best hybrids that burn gasoline will always have a baseline of emissions they can’t go below.”

Raw materials can be problematic

Like many other batteries, the lithium-ion cells that power most electric vehicles rely on raw materials — like cobalt, lithium and rare earth elements — that have been linked to grave environmental and human rights concerns. Cobalt has been especially problematic.

Mining cobalt produces hazardous tailings and slags that can leach into the environment, and studies have found high exposure in nearby communities, especially among children, to cobalt and other metals. Extracting the metals from their ores also requires a process called smelting, which can emit sulfur oxide and other harmful air pollution.

And as much as 70 percent of the world’s cobalt supply is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a substantial proportion in unregulated “artisanal” mines where workers — including many children — dig the metal from the earth using only hand tools at great risk to their health and safety, human rights groups warn.

The world’s lithium is either mined in Australia or from salt flats in the Andean regions of Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, operations that use large amounts of groundwater to pump out the brines, drawing down the water available to Indigenous farmers and herders. The water required for producing batteries has meant that manufacturing electric vehicles is about 50 percent more water intensive than traditional internal combustion engines. Deposits of rare earths, concentrated in China, often contain radioactive substances that can emit radioactive water and dust.

Focusing first on cobalt, automakers and other manufacturers have committed to eliminating “artisanal” cobalt from their supply chains, and have also said they will develop batteries that decrease, or do away with, cobalt altogether. But that technology is still in development, and the prevalence of these mines means these commitments “aren’t realistic,” said Mickaël Daudin of Pact, a nonprofit organization that works with mining communities in Africa.

Instead, Mr. Daudin said, manufacturers need to work with these mines to lessen their environmental footprint and make sure miners are working in safe conditions. If companies acted responsibly, the rise of electric vehicles would be a great opportunity for countries like Congo, he said. But if they don’t, “they will put the environment, and many, many miners’ lives at risk.”

Recycling could be better

As earlier generations of electric vehicles start to reach the end of their lives, preventing a pileup of spent batteries looms as a challenge.

Most of today’s electric vehicles use lithium-ion batteries, which can store more energy in the same space than older, more commonly-used lead-acid battery technology. But while 99 percent of lead-acid batteries are recycled in the United States, estimated recycling rates for lithium-ion batteries are about 5 percent.

Experts point out that spent batteries contain valuable metals and other materials that can be recovered and reused. Depending on the process used, battery recycling can also use large amounts of water, or emit air pollutants.

“The percentage of lithium batteries being recycled is very low, but with time and innovation, that’s going to increase,” said Radenka Maric, a professor at the University of Connecticut’s Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering.

A different, promising approach to tackling used electric vehicle batteries is finding them a second life in storage and other applications. “For cars, when the battery goes below say 80 percent of its capacity, the range is reduced,” said Amol Phadke, a senior scientist at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley. “But that’s not a constraint for stationary storage.”

Various automakers, including Nissan and BMW, have piloted the use of old electric vehicle batteries for grid storage. General Motors has said it designed its battery packs with second-life use in mind. But there challenges: Reusing lithium-ion batteries requires extensive testing and upgrades to make sure they perform reliably.

If done properly, though, used car batteries could continue to be used for a decade or more as backup storage for solar power, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found in a study last year.

Fossil fuel emissions in danger of surpassing pre-Covid levels

Jillian Ambrose

International Energy Agency data shows steady climb over second half of 2020

International Energy Agency data showed that by December 2020 carbon emissions were 2% higher than in the same month the year before. Photograph: Jeff Zehnder/Alamy

International Energy Agency data showed that by December 2020 carbon emissions were 2% higher than in the same month the year before. Photograph: Jeff Zehnder/Alamy

The world has only a few months to prevent the energy industry’s carbon emissions from surpassing pre-pandemic levels this year as economies begin to rebound from Covid-19 restrictions, according to the International Energy Agency.

New figures from the global energy watchdog found that fossil fuel emissions climbed steadily over the second half of the year as major economies began to recover. By December 2020, carbon emissions were 2% higher than in the same month the year before.

The return of rising emissions began only months after Covid-19 triggered the deepest slump in carbon dioxide output since the end of the second world war, and threatens to dash hopes that the world’s emissions might have peaked in 2019.

Dr Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, said: “We are putting the historic opportunity to make 2019 the definitive peak of global emissions at risk. If in the next few months governments do not put the right clean energy policies in place, we may well be returning to our carbon-intensive business as usual. This is in stark contrast with the ambitious commitments made by several governments one after the other.”

The IEA was one of many influential groups to call on global governments to put in place plans to use green energy policies as an economic stimulus in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. However, a Guardian investigation revealed that only a small number of major countries began pumping rescue funds into low-carbon efforts such as renewable power, electric vehicles and energy efficiency last year.

The agency’s first ever report to record monthly carbon emissions by region found a strong correlation between countries that put in place economic stimulus packages with a net environmental benefit – such as France, Spain, the UK and Germany – and those that have kept a lid on the carbon emissions rebound.

Meanwhile, the countries that had made the smallest contributions to green economic stimulus measures, such as China, India, the United States and Brazil, recorded steep carbon rebounds in the second half of last year as their economies began to reopen.

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“This is a clear signal that governments did not put as many green energy policies in their economic recovery packages as they should have. We warned that if the policies were not put in place, we would go back to where we were before the crisis – which is what is happening today,” he said.

China was the first major economy to emerge from the pandemic and lift restrictions, and the only major economy to grow last year, causing its emissions in the last month of the year to climb 7% higher than the levels in December 2019. Its emissions fell 12% below 2019 levels in February last year, but for the year as a whole China’s carbon emissions were 0.8% above 2019.

In India and Brazil, the monthly carbon emissions recorded for December were both 3% higher than at the end of 2019, a stark increase from the depths of lockdown restrictions in April last year, when India’s emissions were 41% lower than in 2019 and Brazil’s 23% lower than the year before.

The EU also reached an emissions nadir last April of 22% below 2019 levels, and emissions remained 5% lower than the year before by December, in part due to ongoing restrictions on travel to help limit the spread of Covid-19 and its variants.

Birol said it was “not too late” for governments to prevent remissions from rebounding to higher levels than before the coronavirus pandemic, “but it is becoming a very daunting task”.

“Governments of all countries, and especially major economies such as the US, China, India, Europe and Japan, need to include clean energy policies in their economic recovery packages,” he said.

Court: Nigerian Farmers Can Sue Shell in UK Over Pollution

Britain’s Supreme Court has ruled that a group of Nigerian farmers and fishermen can sue Royal Dutch Shell PLC in the English courts over pollution in a region where the energy giant has a subsidiary

The Associated Press

The Associated Press

LONDON -- Britain’s Supreme Court ruled Thursday that a group of Nigerian farmers and fishermen can sue Royal Dutch Shell PLC in English courts over pollution in a region where the Anglo-Dutch energy giant has a subsidiary.

Five justices on the U.K.'s top court said Shell has a “duty of care” to the claimants over the actions of its Nigerian subsidiary. Shell had argued that it was not responsible.

Members of Nigeria’s Ogale and Bille communities took Shell to court in Britain in 2016, alleging that decades of oil spills have fouled the water, contaminated the soil and destroyed the lives of thousands of people in the Niger River Delta, where a Shell subsidiary has operated for decades.

They brought the lawsuit in London, Shell’s home base, because they said the Nigerian courts are too corrupt.

Shell argued that the U.K. courts had no jurisdiction to hear the case.

Britain’s High Court ruled in 2017 that the parent company was not legally responsible and the claim against its subsidiary, Shell Petroleum Development Co. of Nigeria, should therefore not be heard in the U.K. courts.

The Court of Appeal agreed and the claimants appealed to the U.K.’s top court for a final decision.

In its ruling Thursday, the Supreme Court said “the Court of Appeal materially erred in law” when it ruled against the Nigerian claimants.

It said the appellants’ case had “a real prospect of success.”

The long-running case has been closely watched for its implications about whether large corporations can be sued in London for activities of foreign subsidiaries.

Daniel Leader of London law firm Leigh Day, who represents the claimants, said the judgment “gives real hope to the people of Ogale and Bille who have been asking Shell to clean up their oil for years."

“But it also represents a watershed moment in the accountability of multinational companies," he said. "Increasingly impoverished communities are seeking to hold powerful corporate actors to account and this judgment will significantly increase their ability to do so.”

Shell discovered and started exploiting Nigeria’s vast oil reserves in the late 1950s and has faced heavy criticism from activists and local communities over spills and for the company’s close ties to government security forces.

The British ruling comes two weeks after a Dutch appeals court ordered Shell’s Nigerian subsidiary to compensate farmers in two villages for damage to their land caused by leaks in 2004 and 2005. That decision can be appealed to the Dutch Supreme Court.

China’s Emissions of Ozone-Harming Gas Are Declining, Studies Find

New research confirms that emissions from China of CFC-11, a banned gas that harms Earth’s ozone layer, have fallen sharply, reversing a dangerous spike.

 Chris Buckley and Henry Fountain

Emissions from China of a banned gas that harms Earth’s ozone layer have sharply declined after increasing for several years, two teams of scientists said Wednesday, a sign that the Beijing government had made good on vows to crack down on illegal production of the industrial chemical.

The findings ease concerns that increased emissions of the gas, CFC-11, would slow progress in the decades-long environmental struggle to repair the ozone layer, which filters ultraviolet radiation from the sun that can cause skin cancer and damage crops.

“We see a huge decline both in global emission rates and what’s coming from Eastern China,” said Stephen A. Montzka, a research chemist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the lead author of one of the studies. Work by Dr. Montzka and others three years ago first revealed the illegal emissions.

“It looks like there’s been a substantial response, potentially as a result of us raising a flag and saying, ‘Hey, something’s not happening as it should,’” Dr. Montzka said.

Matthew Rigby, an atmospheric chemist at the University of Bristol in England and an author of the second study, said that if emissions had not declined, “we could be seeing a delay in ozone recovery of years.” As of now, full recovery is still expected by the middle of the century.

Chinese government officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Chemical traders in Shandong, a heavily industrialized province in Eastern China where CFC-11 was widely used for making insulating foams, said trade in the banned gas had largely dried up. “It hasn’t disappeared entirely, but it’s much scarcer than before,” Gao Shang, a chemical merchant in Shandong, said in a telephone interview.

CFC-11 was outlawed a decade ago under the Montreal Protocol, the treaty established in the 1980s, when research revealed its effects on atmospheric ozone, along with the effects of similar widely used chemicals.

The revelation in a 2018 study of rogue emissions from China that began five years before was a shock to scientists, policymakers, environmentalists and others who monitor the protocol, which is largely regarded as the most effective environmental treaty in history.

Meg Seki, acting executive secretary of the Ozone Secretariat, the United Nations body that administers the treaty, said the organization was pleased to see that emissions had dropped and that the effect on the ozone layer was likely to be limited. “It is important, however, to prevent such unexpected emissions in the future through continued, high-standard monitoring by the scientific community,” she said in a statement

The 2018 research did not pinpoint the source of most of the emissions beyond locating them as coming from East Asia. But investigations that year by the Environmental Investigation Agency, an independent advocacy group based in Washington, D.C., and by The New York Times found evidence that the gas was still being produced and used in Eastern China, particularly Shandong.

An atmospheric analysis led by Dr. Rigby in 2019 found that Shandong, as well as a neighboring province, Hebei, were major sources.

When first confronted with the evidence, Chinese environmental authorities hedged and raised doubts about the findings, suggesting that there could be other, unaccounted sources of the chemical or that manufacturers of insulating foam would not use so much CFC-11.

At the same time, China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environmental Protection vowed “zero tolerance” for businesses found illegally making or using CFC-11.

Policy announcements, industry reports and court judgments all indicate that the Chinese government cracked down on the illicit trade, even as it kept denying that there ever was a serious problem. Last year, the government publicized a conviction of a businessman, Qi Erming, as the first case in China of a criminal prosecution for illegally trading in ozone-damaging chemicals.

As well as prosecutions, the government tightened rules and monitoring of the chemical and foam production industries, and promised to create a comprehensive data system to trace the movement of chemicals that could be used to make CFC-11.

There are legal gases that can replace CFC-11 in foam production. Mr. Gao, the chemical merchant in Shandong, said his company specializes in one of them.

The availability of substitutes may have helped China’s efforts to reduce CFC-11 emissions. Zhu Xiuli, a sales manager at another company in Shandong that sells foaming agents, said that customers previously had asked whether they had CFC-11. But “in the past couple of years there have been fewer and fewer inquiries,” she said.

CFC-11 has also been used in refrigeration equipment. As the gear ages, and as foams containing CFC-11 degrade over time, the gas will slowly be released. Although the size of this “bank” of CFC-11 is not precisely known, it is accounted for by the protocol, and is one reason full ozone recovery will take decades.

The new papers, which were published in the journal Nature, also do not account for the entire global increase in CFC-11 emissions that had occurred since 2013. The gas may still be being produced or used in other countries or in other parts of China, but the researchers said there are not enough air-sampling stations worldwide to know for certain.

“This is a useful lesson that we really need to expand our monitoring capabilities,” Dr. Rigby said.

Avipsa Mahapatra, a climate campaign lead for the Environmental Investigation Agency, said of the new findings that it was “exciting to see atmospheric studies confirming that on-the-ground intelligence and subsequent enforcement have culminated in a spectacular climate win.” But she said her group had indications that enforcement may have been more successful in some parts of China than others. “This is not the time for complacency,” she said.

Susan Solomon, an atmospheric chemist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who was not involved in the research, said the work was “a real triumph for science.”

But the problem is not over, Dr. Solomon said, because in addition to CFC-11, there are other, similar chemicals being emitted. “There’s a whole zoo of molecules,” she said, and although the amounts are smaller, they add up.

They also are potent greenhouse gases, she said, although their contribution to warming is much less than the far more prevalent heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide and methane. “The chemical industry worldwide is still not monitored closely enough for us to actually be confident in how much greenhouse gases they’re making and how much ozone-depleting gases they are making,” she said.