Tough air pollution targets needed to cut health inequalities, say MPs

Damian Carrington

Cross-party committee says deprived groups contribute least but suffer most from dirty air

In London almost half of disadvantaged communities suffer pollution levels above EU limits, the BMA says. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

The government must set tough new air pollution targets to reduce the stark health inequalities suffered by disadvantaged communities, a cross-party committee of MPs has said.

Dirty air causes up to 64,000 early deaths a year in the UK, according to their report, and disproportionately harms those living in deprived areas and those from minority ethnic communities. The fact that these groups contribute the least to air pollution “increases the moral case for action”, said the MPs.

Air pollution and associated health problems have been linked to worse outcomes from Covid-19 but the MPs said there was already an overwhelming case for action. One in six of all deaths in Europe are linked to the burning of fossil fuels, according to research published on Monday.

The MPs’ report said ministers must put the World Health Organization (WHO) limit for particle pollution into law. The UK limit is two-and-a-half times higher. The delayed environment bill now being considered in parliament does not commit to a specific target.

The government’s own evidence shows that by far the most effective way to cut pollution is with clean-air zones (CAZs), where charges are levied to deter polluting vehicles from urban centres. But the MPs said ministers had put too much responsibility for these on local authorities and provided too little funding. Three-quarters of the UK’s 43 air-quality zones have illegal levels of nitrogen dioxide, mostly emitted by diesels, but to date only London has a CAZ.

The MPs also said people would need to be encouraged to use public transport again after the coronavirus pandemic subsideed and that “the government should match its rhetoric on active travel [such as walking and cycling] with sufficient funding”.

“Deaths linked to air pollution disproportionately affect disadvantaged communities,” said Neil Parish MP, chair of the environment food and rural affairs select committee. “In rebuilding after the pandemic, we have a moral duty to put improving air quality at its core.” In 2016, the committee described air pollution as “a national health emergency”.

The MPs’ report said the deaths caused by dirty air “were starkly highlighted” by a landmark coroner’s verdict in December that air pollution had been a cause of the death of nine-year-old Ella Kissi-Debrah in 2013. Her mother, Rosamund Kissi-Debrah, subsequently called for her legacy to be a new clean air act to force the government to clean up dirty air. The MPs said ministers should set a legal target of reaching the WHO limit for small particle pollution by 2030.

The MPs took evidence from a wide range of experts, and Prof Dame Parveen Kumar of the British Medical Association (BMA) said action should “focus on deprived communities because we would probably see the greatest changes there” while adding that “this is happening to everybody everywhere”.

The chief medical officer for England said in 2017 that deprived communities lived with higher air pollution and were more susceptible to its impact. The BMA said that in London almost half of disadvantaged communities suffered pollution levels above EU limits, compared with just 2% in the wealthiest communities. People in inner-city areas are least likely to own a car, Guy’s & St Thomas’ Charity said.

Delays in the implementation of some CAZs have come from local authorities and the government. Paul Swinney, from the Centre for Cities, told the MPs: “Literally, the people they are serving are dying because we are not dealing with those air quality issues.”

On walking and cycling, the BMA said current spending on active travel was just 2% of transport spending and estimated that delivering the government’s plans would require £1.2bn a year, not the £2bn over five years it had committed.

A government spokesperson said improving air quality was a top priority: “We have committed to setting at least two ambitious new air quality targets, with a primary focus on reducing public health impacts. As part of this we will be considering WHO guidelines for [small particles].”

Harriet Edwards, policy manager at Asthma UK and the British Lung Foundation (AUK-BLF), said: “Air pollution impacts everyone, but can have a devastating impact on the most vulnerable people in our society – children, older people and the millions of people with a lung condition.”

A new AUK-BLF report shows more than half of people in England aged over-65 live in areas with small particle pollution above WHO levels, and that more than a quarter of care homes and hospitals are in such areas.

'Invisible killer': fossil fuels caused 8.7m deaths globally in 2018, research finds

Oliver Milman

Pollution from power plants, vehicles and other sources accounted for one in five of all deaths that year, more detailed analysis reveals

Two men walk along Rajpath amid smoggy conditions in New Delhi last month. Photograph: Jewel Samad/AFP/Getty Images

Air pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil was responsible for 8.7m deaths globally in 2018, a staggering one in five of all people who died that year, new research has found.

Countries with the most prodigious consumption of fossil fuels to power factories, homes and vehicles are suffering the highest death tolls, with the study finding more than one in 10 deaths in both the US and Europe were caused by the resulting pollution, along with nearly a third of deaths in eastern Asia, which includes China. Death rates in South America and Africa were significantly lower.

The enormous death toll is higher than previous estimates and surprised even the study’s researchers. “We were initially very hesitant when we obtained the results because they are astounding, but we are discovering more and more about the impact of this pollution,” said Eloise Marais, a geographer at University College London and a study co-author. “It’s pervasive. The more we look for impacts, the more we find.”

The 8.7m deaths in 2018 represent a “key contributor to the global burden of mortality and disease”, states the study, which is the result of collaboration between scientists at Harvard University, the University of Birmingham, the University of Leicester and University College London. The death toll exceeds the combined total of people who die globally each year from smoking tobacco plus those who die of malaria.

Scientists have established links between pervasive air pollution from burning fossil fuels and cases of heart disease, respiratory ailments and even the loss of eyesight. Without fossil fuel emissions, the average life expectancy of the world’s population would increase by more than a year, while global economic and health costs would fall by about $2.9tn.

The new estimate of deaths, published in the journal Environmental Research, is higher than other previous attempts to quantify the mortal cost of fossil fuels. A major report by the Lancet in 2019, for example, found 4.2m annual deaths from air pollution coming from dust and wildfire smoke, as well as fossil fuel combustion.

This new research deploys a more detailed analysis of the impact of sooty airborne particles thrown out by power plants, cars, trucks and other sources. This particulate matter is known as PM2.5 as the particles are less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter – or about 30 times smaller than the diameter of the average human hair. These tiny specks of pollution, once inhaled, lodge in the lungs and can cause a variety of health problems.

“We don’t appreciate that air pollution is an invisible killer,” said Neelu Tummala, an ear, nose and throat physician at George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences. “The air we breathe impacts everyone’s health but particularly children, older individuals, those on low incomes and people of color. Usually people in urban areas have the worst impacts.”

Instead of solely relying upon averaged estimates from satellite and surface observations that account for PM2.5 from a range of sources, the researchers used a global 3D model of atmospheric chemistry overseen by Nasa that has a more detailed resolution and can distinguish between pollution sources. “Rather than rely on averages spread across large regions, we wanted to map where the pollution is and where people live, so we could know more exactly what people are breathing,” said Karn Vohra, a graduate student at University of Birmingham and study co-author.

The researchers then developed a new risk assessment based on a tranche of new research that has found a much higher mortality rate from fossil fuel emissions than previously thought, even in relatively low concentrations. Data was taken from 2012 and then also 2018 to account for rapid improvements in air quality in China. Deaths were counted for people aged 15 and older.

The results show a varied global picture. “China’s air quality is improving but its fine particle concentrations are still staggeringly high, the US is improving, although there are hotspots in the north-east, Europe is a mixed bag and India is definitely a hotspot,” said Marais.

A coal power plant in Niederaussem, western Germany. Photograph: Ina Fassbender/AFP/Getty Images

The death toll outlined in the study may even be an underestimate of the true picture, according to George Thurston, an expert in air pollution and health at the NYU school of medicine who was not involved in the research. “Overall, however, this new work makes clearer than ever that, when we talk about the human cost of air pollution or climate change, the major causes are one and the same – fossil fuel combustion,” he said.

Philip J Landrigan, director of the program for global public health and the common good at Boston College, said: “Recent research has been exploring the use of newer exposure-response functions, and several recent papers that use these newer functions have produced higher estimates of pollution-related mortality than the Global Burden of Disease analyses.” He added: “I consider it important that different risk assessment models are now being developed, because their development will force re-examination of the assumptions that underlie current models and will improve them.”

Ed Avol, chief of the environmental health division at the University of Southern California (USC), said: “The authors have applied improved methodologies to better quantify exposures and better document health outcomes in order to reach the unsettling (but not surprising) conclusion that fossil-fuels-combustion-related air pollution is more damaging to global human health than previously estimated. The remote satellite imagery exposure specialists and health epidemiologists on the research team are highly competent investigators and among the most talented scholars in this dynamic field.”

“Fossil fuels have a really large impact upon health, the climate and the environment and we need a more immediate response,” said Marais. “Some governments have carbon-neutral goals but maybe we need to move them forward given the huge damage to public health. We need much more urgency.”

Global heating to blame for threat of deadly flood in Peru, study finds

Dan Collyns

Research showing severe flood threat caused by global heating may set legal precedent in climate litigation

The study found human-induced heating had caused between 85% and 105% of the observed 1C temperature rise in the region since 1880. That had, in turn, caused the retreat of the Palcaraju glacier. Photograph: Dan Collyns/The Guardian

Human-caused global heating is directly responsible for the threat of a devastating flood in Peru that is the subject of a lawsuit against the German energy company RWE, according to groundbreaking new research.

The study establishes links from human-made greenhouse gas emissions to the substantial risk of a dangerous outburst flood from Lake Palcacocha, high in the Peruvian Andes. The resulting flood would trigger a deadly landslide inundating the city of Huaraz, and threatening about 120,000 people in its path.

Climate litigators say the research published in Nature Geoscience could be key to holding major polluters accountable for their contribution to climate change.

Rupert Stuart-Smith, the lead author of the study, says: “[It] shows that warming has caused the retreat of the Palcaraju glacier which, in turn, has increased the flood risk.

“Crucially, this establishes a direct link between emissions and the need to implement protective measures now, as well as any damages caused by flooding in future.”

In 2017, judges in Hamm, Germany, made legal history by accepting a case brought by farmer Saúl Luciano Lliuya against RWE, Germany’s largest electricity provider, asking for $20,000 (£14,660) for the costs of preventing damage from a potential outburst flood from the lake. The judges are currently examining the evidence.

Roda Verheyen, a Hamburg-based environmental lawyer representing Lliuya, said she expected the study “to provide evidence of cause and effect that can be used in court worldwide”.

“Given that the court in Germany has already approved that, legally, there is responsibility for major emitters, this would have a bearing everywhere,” she told the Guardian.

Noah Walker-Crawford, an anthropologist at Manchester University acting as an external adviser to Germanwatch on climate litigation, said the study “provides further support to the argument that RWE has contributed to the risk of glacial lake flooding in Peru and should be held financially liable”.

“A ruling in Saúl Luciano Lliuya’s favour would set a significant precedent for future claims against major emitters,” he added.

“While Luciano Lliuya’s case concerns a small sum of around $20,000, future claims could be in the billions.”

The study found that the human-induced temperature rises had caused between 85% and 105% of the observed 1C heating in the region since 1880. That had, in turn, caused the retreat of the Palcaraju glacier. Andean glaciers, of which about 70% are in Peru, are among the fastest retreating mountain ice caps and one of the most visible impacts of the climate crisis.

Prof Gerard Roe, study author and researcher at the University of Washington, said: “Outburst floods threaten communities in many mountainous regions, but this risk is particularly severe in Huaraz, as well as elsewhere in the Andes and in countries such as Nepal and Bhutan, where vulnerable populations live in the path of the potential flood waters.”

This is not the first time Lake Palcacocha has threatened Huaraz. In 1941 a chunk of ice broke away from the glacier in an earthquake, tumbling into the lake. The impact caused a flood, killing about 1,800 people. The study also found this flood to be influenced by human-induced climate change – making it one of the earliest fatal impacts of climate change to have been identified globally.

“A number of new lawsuits are attempting to hold high-emission companies responsible for the costs of climate change,” said Prof Thom Wetzer, the founding director of the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme.

“It is now up to litigators to translate the science into high-impact legal arguments. Whether or not this particular case proceeds, it shows there is huge potential to leverage the power of the law to hold private companies liable for climate change-related impacts.”

Wellbeing benefits of wetlands

Flinders University

Study measures high value of natural coastal assets

In one of the first studies of its kind in Australia, ahead of World Wetlands Day (2 February), Flinders University environment and marine ecology experts have conducted an Adelaide-based survey of how residents connect with and rate the attributes of Adelaide's northern metropolitan coastal wetlands.

The findings, just published in the journal Environmental Science and Policy, report strong appreciation of the natural features of these coastal places, with study participants rating them highly -- and identifying their importance for personal wellbeing which underpins a need for closer controls on further development or degradation of these important community spaces, researchers say.

"People who visited the study region for recreation and work identified a personal bond with the places like Adelaide's Dolphin Sanctuary, the International Bird Sanctuary and St Kilda Mangrove Trail and other coastal national parks and coastal features situated so close to the city -- added reasons to take good care of these precious resources," says lead author, Flinders University geographer Associate Professor Beverley Clarke.

The study used a 'cultural ecosystem services' framework to assess residents' perceptions about the benefits they gained from these wetlands.

"Translating the benefits people receive from coastal ecosystems in a way that is usable to policy-makers and environmental managers is important but challenging," says Associate Professor Clarke.

"Here we have been able to document health and wellbeing benefits expressed by the people who experience these places. As well as simply appreciating the natural landscape, it is through their activities that citizens developed an attachment to the coastline.

"People value these places as they become familiar with them," say Associate Professor Clarke, a life member of the Australian Coastal Society, who researches coastal planning and management with a current focus on strategies to support adaptation and resilience of coastal communities to the impacts of climate change.

Co-author marine biologist, Professor Sabine Dittmann, an expert in coastal ecosystem ecology and blue carbon at Flinders University's College of Science and Engineering, says this social values survey highlights the co-benefits of coastal restoration.

"Naturalness of coastal wetlands matters most to people and will be an important outcome from restoring tidal wetlands, in addition to carbon sequestration gains," she says.

Professor Dittmann is involved in carbon sequestration and saltmarsh restoration projects at Dry Creek north of Adelaide.

Irrespective of their socio-ecological and climatic importance, coastal wetlands around the world are among the most threatened of all environments, facing human-induced pressures of landscape modification for agriculture and urbanisation, and climate-induced sea level rises.

The researchers note that building awareness of the social benefits of restoring these sometimes under-appreciated wetlands may help generate support for protecting -- rather than developing -- these threatened landscapes.

Farming, seen as a cause and victim of climate change, is seeing radical new tech drive innovation

The co-CEO of multinational science firm DSM stressed the deep connection between climate change and food systems on Thursday, emphasizing the importance of moving fast and using technology to tackle the challenges they create.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe”, Geraldine Matchett said food systems were “one of the big causes of climate change, with about 25% of … greenhouse gases coming from the agricultural and food space.” They were also, she said, “one of the biggest victims.”

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “food systems” encompass everything from production and processing to distribution, consumption and disposal.

A key cog in this is agriculture, which is prone to being affected by climate change. Indeed, the FAO has described climate change as having “both direct and indirect effects on agricultural productivity including changing rainfall patterns, drought, flooding and the geographical redistribution of pests and diseases.”

Given the above, it’s no surprise many view the challenge of producing enough food whilst simultaneously adapting to climate change and mitigating the environmental footprint of agriculture as huge.

Later this year, these subjects will be addressed in detail at the COP26 conference on climate change and the UN Food Systems Summit, due to be held in the Scottish city of Glasgow and New York, respectively.

Looking ahead to these events, Matchett described herself as being “very optimistic.” She added: “When there’s (a) realization that there’s urgency, but there’s also a lot of innovation that is already here to fix this, we can get moving.” 

Matchett went on to explain how she thought a renewed focus would be placed on agriculture at COP26.

“I think one of the key actions that is going to be pushed … is for every country to embed in their targets the agricultural space,” she said.

There’s a “very understandable reason why this was very difficult at first: it’s because the food space is not a few big companies or corporations, it’s millions of farmers, it’s millions of families.”

Acknowledging the reach of this area was very broad, Matchett also touched upon how things could change for the better through carbon sequestration and other technologies connected to agriculture and livestock.

The United States Geological Survey describes carbon sequestration as “the process of capturing and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide.” Breaking things down a bit further, carbon capture can take place naturally — through forests, for example — or via artificially engineered systems developed by humans.

“There are many things where you can actually turn the farming community into the heroes of helping fix climate change, and at the same time, be better off,” she added. “So there’s a great opportunity, and that’s what’s nice in that space: it’s packed with opportunity.”

Perhaps one example of this is the Cauca Climate-Smart Village project in Colombia, an initiative which has focused on developing farming practices that it’s hoped will be both sustainable and resilient to future challenges.

Ana Maria Loboguerrero is head of global policy research at the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security.

In an interview with CNBC last year, Loboguerrero said the project in Cauca was co-generating evidence with farmers on “the practices, the technologies, that can help us to increase productivity and food security, that can help us to increase adaptation to climate change and variability and that can help us to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

During a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday moderated by CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick, the notion of using new tech and innovations in farming was reinforced by the CEO of PepsiCo, Ramon Laguarta.

“The concept of demonstration farms is proving to be very powerful,” he said.

“So, building demonstration farms where we have the new techniques and where … neighborhood farmers go and learn from their peers, that’s a huge concept (and) we have many demonstration farms across the world.” 

″(The) second concept that we’re working on, with the World Economic Forum and some other colleagues, is innovation hubs,” Laguarta said.

“There is a lot of money … a lot of ingenuity, going into fintechs going into … other fields – there’s not enough going into agritech,” he continued.

“And I think we can play a role — large companies with the public sector as well — to build innovation hubs, to bring technology and innovation closer to the farmer.”

Economics' failure over destruction of nature presents ‘extreme risks’

Larry Elliott and Damian Carrington

New measures of success needed to avoid catastrophic breakdown, landmark review finds

The Dasgupta review urges the world’s governments to come up with a different form of national accounting from GDP and use one that incorporates the depletion of natural resources. Photograph: Brasil2/Getty Images

The world is being put at “extreme risk” by the failure of economics to take account of the rapid depletion of the natural world and needs to find new measures of success to avoid a catastrophic breakdown, a landmark review has concluded.

Prosperity was coming at a “devastating cost” to the ecosystems that provide humanity with food, water and clean air, said Prof Sir Partha Dasgupta, the Cambridge University economist who conducted the review. Radical global changes to production, consumption, finance and education were urgently needed, he said.

The 600-page review was commissioned by the UK Treasury, the first time a national finance ministry has authorised a full assessment of the economic importance of nature. A similar Treasury-sponsored review in 2006 by Nicholas Stern is credited with transforming economic understanding of the climate crisis.

The review said that two UN conferences this year – on biodiversity and climate change – provided opportunities for the international community to rethink an approach that has seen a 40% plunge in the stocks of natural capital per head between 1992 and 2014.

“Nature is our home. Good economics demands we manage it better,” said Dasgupta. “Truly sustainable economic growth and development means recognising that our long-term prosperity relies on rebalancing our demand of nature’s goods and services with its capacity to supply them. It also means accounting fully for the impact of our interactions with nature. Covid-19 has shown us what can happen when we don’t do this.”

David Attenborough

Sir David Attenborough said the review was “immensely important”. In a foreword, he said: “If we continue this damage, whole ecosystems will collapse. That is now a real risk. The review at last puts biodiversity at the core [of economics]. It shows how we can help save the natural world at what may be the last minute, and in doing so, save ourselves.”

The British prime minister, Boris Johnson, who will host the UN climate summit in Glasgow in November, said: “This year is critical in determining whether we can stop and reverse the concerning trend of fast-declining biodiversity. I welcome the review, which makes clear that protecting and enhancing nature needs more than good intentions – it requires concerted, coordinated action.”

Humanity’s impact on the natural world is stark, with animal populations having dropped by an average of 68% since 1970 and forest destruction continuing at pace – some scientists think a sixth mass extinction of life is under way and accelerating. Today, just 4% of the world’s mammals are wild, hugely outweighed by humans and their livestock.

The Dasgupta review urged the world’s governments to come up with a different form of national accounting from GDP and use one that includes the depletion of natural resources. It would like to see an understanding of nature given as prominent a place in education as the “three Rs”, to end people’s distance from nature.

Dasgupta also called for new supranational institutions to protect global public goods such as the rainforests and oceans. Poorer countries should be paid to protect ecosystems, while charges for the use of non-territorial waters should be levied to prevent overfishing.

The report said almost all governments were exacerbating the biodiversity crisis by paying people more to exploit nature than to protect it. A conservative estimate of the global cost of subsidies that damage nature was about $4tn-$6tn (£2.9-£4.4tn) a year, it said. “Humanity faces an urgent choice. Continuing down our current path presents extreme risks and uncertainty for our economies.” the review said.

“The Dasgupta review shows we are running down our natural capital fast, and we will pay the price,” said Lord Stern, a professor at the London School of Economics. “Reversing these trends requires action now, and as the review stresses, to do so would be significantly less costly than delay. Crucially, it would [also] help us to reduce poverty.”

A comprehensive UN global assessment of biodiversity in 2019 concluded that human society is in jeopardy from the accelerating decline of the Earth’s natural life-support systems, with about half of wild places lost and a million species at risk of extinction.

Prof Bob Watson, who led the UN assessment, said: “The most important thing is that the Dasgupta review was commissioned by the UK Treasury ministry, not the environment department. Hopefully this will mean that finance ministries around the world will acknowledge that the loss of nature is an economic issue, not simply an environmental issue.”

Jennifer Morris, head of the Nature Conservancy, said: “In the same way the Stern review proved transformational in raising awareness of climate risk for business and financial markets, the Dasgupta review is likely to represent a watershed moment for how we value the contributions made by nature across nearly every aspect of our lives.”

COVID-19 lockdowns temporarily raised global temperatures, research shows

David Hosansky

National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

The lockdowns and reduced societal activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic affected emissions of pollutants in ways that slightly warmed the planet for several months last year, according to new research led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

The counterintuitive finding highlights the influence of airborne particles, or aerosols, that block incoming sunlight. When emissions of aerosols dropped last spring, more of the Sun's warmth reached the planet, especially in heavily industrialized nations, such as the United States and Russia, that normally pump high amounts of aerosols into the atmosphere.

"There was a big decline in emissions from the most polluting industries, and that had immediate, short-term effects on temperatures," said NCAR scientist Andrew Gettelman, the study's lead author. "Pollution cools the planet, so it makes sense that pollution reductions would warm the planet."

Temperatures over parts of Earth's land surface last spring were about 0.2-0.5 degrees Fahrenheit (0.1-0.3 degrees Celsius) warmer than would have been expected with prevailing weather conditions, the study found. The effect was most pronounced in regions that normally are associated with substantial emissions of aerosols, with the warming reaching about 0.7 degrees F (0.37 C) over much of the United States and Russia.

The new study highlights the complex and often conflicting influences of different types of emissions from power plants, motor vehicles, industrial facilities, and other sources. While aerosols tend to brighten clouds and reflect heat from the Sun back into space, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have the opposite effect, trapping heat near the planet's surface and elevating temperatures.

Despite the short-term warming effects, Gettelman emphasized that the long-term impact of the pandemic may be to slightly slow climate change because of reduced emissions of carbon dioxide, which lingers in the atmosphere for decades and has a more gradual influence on climate. In contrast, aerosols -- the focus of the new study -- have a more immediate impact that fades away within a few years.

The study was published in Geophysical Research Letters. It was funded in part by the National Science Foundation, NCAR's sponsor. In addition to NCAR scientists, the study was co-authored by scientists at Oxford University, Imperial College, and the University of Leeds.

Teasing out the impacts

Although scientists have long been able to quantify the warming impacts of carbon dioxide, the climatic influence of various types of aerosols -- including sulfates, nitrates, black carbon, and dust -- has been more difficult to pin down. One of the major challenges for projecting the extent of future climate change is estimating the extent to which society will continue to emit aerosols in the future and the influence of the different types of aerosols on clouds and temperature.

To conduct the research, Gettelman and his co-authors used two of the world's leading climate models: the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model and a model known as ECHAM-HAMMOZ, which was developed by a consortium of European nations. They ran simulations on both models, adjusting emissions of aerosols and incorporating actual meteorological conditions in 2020, such as winds.

This approach enabled them to identify the impact of reduced emissions on temperature changes that were too small to tease out in actual observations, where they could be obscured by the variability in atmospheric conditions.

The results showed that the warming effect was strongest in the mid and upper latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The effect was mixed in the tropics and comparatively minor in much of the Southern Hemisphere, where aerosol emissions are not as pervasive.

Gettelman said the study will help scientists better understand the influence of various types of aerosols in different atmospheric conditions, helping to inform efforts to minimize climate change. Although the research illustrates how aerosols counter the warming influence of greenhouse gases, he emphasized that emitting more of them into the lower atmosphere is not a viable strategy for slowing climate change.

"Aerosol emissions have major health ramifications," he said. "Saying we should pollute is not practical."

Sea level rise could be worse than feared, warn researchers

Karen McVeigh

Danish team predict possible 1.35m rise by 2100 and highlight issues with previous modelling

A young girl and a woman walk through water at Kali Adem port, north of Jakarta, where the effects of rising sea levels are already being felt. Photograph: Willy Kurniawan/Reuters

The rise in the sea level is likely to be faster and greater than previously thought, according to researchers who say recent predictions are inconsistent with historical data.

In its most recent assessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the sea level was unlikely to rise beyond 1.1 metre (3.6ft) by 2100.

But climate researchers from the University of Copenhagen’s Niels Bohr Institute believe levels could rise as much as 1.35 metres by 2100, under a worst-case warming scenario. When they used historical data on sea level rise to validate various models relied on by the IPCC to make its assessment, they found a discrepancy of about 25cm, they said in a paper published in the journal Ocean Science.

The researchers said the models used by the IPCC were not sensitive enough, based on what they described as a “reality check” test.

“It’s not great news that we believe the former predictions are too low,” said the climate change scientist Aslak Grinsted, a co-author and an associate professor at the Niels Bohr Institute.

“The models used to base predictions of sea level rise on presently are not sensitive enough,” he said. “To put it plainly, they don’t hit the mark when we compare them to the rate of sea level rise we see when comparing future scenarios with observations going back in time.”

However, he hoped their testing method could be used to constrain models, make them more credible and reduce uncertainty. He said the paper had been sent to the IPCC sea level scientists.

The rise predictions used by the IPCC are based on a “jigsaw puzzle” of models for ice sheets, glaciers and thermal expansion or warming of the sea. The more the temperature rises, the higher the sea level will get.

But, Grinsted said, only a limited amount of data was sometimes available for the models to be tested on. There was practically no data on the melt-off rate for Antarctica before satellite observations in the 1990s, he said. Grinsted found that while individual data, when tested backwards in time, from 1850 to 2017, reflected actual sea level rise, when the data was combined the predictions were too conservative.

“We have better historical data for the sea level rise in total, which, in principle, allows for a test of the combined puzzle of models,” said Grinsted.

The research team at the Niels Bohr Institute hopes their method for validating future scenarios by looking into the past can gain a foothold in how sea level rise will be analysed.

Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, a professor at the institute’s ice, climate and geophysics section and a co-author on the paper, said: “We hope this new comparison metric will be adopted and can become a tool we can apply in comparing different models.”

Hydrogen is going to take 25% of all oil demand by 2050, Bank of America analyst says

Stephen Barnes | iStock | Getty Images

Hydrogen is set to play a major role in the global energy markets over the coming decades, supplanting a large chunk of oil demand, according to Bank of America’s head of global thematic research.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday morning, Haim Israel accepted that while oil and gas would still be needed going forward, it was nearing a peak in demand. “We think it’s peaking this decade, it’s soon — way sooner than what everybody thinks,” he said.  

Israel listed several factors which would affect oil and gas going forward, including cheaper renewable energy, regulation and the electrification of cars.

“We believe that hydrogen is going to take 25% of all oil demand by 2050,” he went on to state, adding that oil was “facing headwinds left and right. Yes, we’ll still need it, yes, it’s still going to be around, but the market share of oil is going to plummet.”

As noted by the U.S. Department of Energy, hydrogen “is an energy carrier, not an energy source,” meaning it’s a secondary energy source like electricity. The DOE adds that hydrogen “can deliver or store a tremendous amount of energy” and “can be used in fuel cells to generate electricity, or power and heat.”

Changing times?

In recent years, governments and companies around the world have announced goals to reduce their environmental footprint and move away from fossil fuels. Both the U.K. and European Union are, for example, targeting net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. 

If these kinds of goals are to be met, the world’s energy mix will need to see a significant shift to renewable and low carbon sources, a mammoth undertaking. For his part, Bank of America’s Israel emphasized the importance of diversification for companies involved in fossil fuels.

“We … strongly believe that the ‘big oils’ need to think in different ways,” he said. “They need to think about not ‘big oil’ anymore but ‘big energy’ from here onwards, to go much more into renewable sources, to diversify their sources.”

In a sign of how things may be starting to change, a number of energy majors — who, it should be noted, remain big players in oil and gas — are now ramping up investment in renewables such as solar and wind. 

Last September, it was announced that BP had agreed to take 50% stakes in the Empire Wind and Beacon Wind projects from Norway’s Equinor. The $1.1 billion deal is due to close in the early part of 2021.

When fully up and running, Equinor says the Empire Wind and Beacon Wind projects, set to be located in waters off the East Coast of the United States, will each be able to power over 1 million homes.

Hopes for hydrogen

Hydrogen is another area starting to gain momentum. The EU has laid out plans to install 40 gigawatts of renewable hydrogen electrolyzers and produce as much as 10 million metric tons of renewable hydrogen by the year 2030.

Hydrogen can be produced in a number of ways. One includes using electrolysis, with an electric current splitting water into oxygen and hydrogen. If the electricity used in the process comes from a renewable source such as wind then it’s termed “green” or “renewable” hydrogen.

At the moment, the vast majority of hydrogen generation is based on fossil fuels. Nevertheless, recent years have seen major firms including Repsol, Siemens Energy and BP get involved in projects connected to “green hydrogen” production.

At the start of this week, it was announced that a subsidiary of German industrial giant Thyssenkrupp had been awarded an engineering contract to carry out the installation of an 88 megawatt water electrolysis plant for Hydro-Québec. The electricity for this project will come from hydropower.

A few days later, on Wednesday, Danish energy firm Orsted said it was pushing ahead with plans to develop a demonstration project which will harness offshore wind energy to produce green hydrogen.

The International Energy Agency says global dedicated hydrogen production amounts to roughly 70 million metric tons per year, and states that demand continues to grow, having increased “more than threefold” since 1975. According to the Paris-based organization, “less than 0.1% of global dedicated hydrogen production today comes from water electrolysis.”

The International Energy Agency says global dedicated hydrogen production amounts to roughly 70 million metric tons per year, and states that demand continues to grow, having increased “more than threefold” since 1975. According to the Paris-based organization, “less than 0.1% of global dedicated hydrogen production today comes from water electrolysis.”

UN warns most will live downstream of ageing large dams by 2050

Fiona Harvey

Global study calls on governments to step up maintenance efforts to prevent failures, overtopping or leaks

The Kaliyasot dam in India. Many of the world’s dams are located in a small number of countries, including China, India, Japan and South Korea. Photograph: Sanjeev Gupta/EPA

By 2050 most people will live downstream of a large dam built in the 20th century, many of which are approaching the limits of the useful lifetime they were designed for, according to global research.

To avoid the potential for dam failures, overtopping or leaks, the dams will require increasing maintenance, and some may have to be taken out of service. Many governments have not prepared for these needs, warn the authors of a study by the United Nations University.

The volume of water stored behind large dams is estimated to be 7,000 to 8,300 cubic km, or enough to cover 80% of Canada’s landmass in a metre of water. Good maintenance can ensure a well-designed dam can last for 100 years without problem, but many of today’s large dams were built long before the risks of the climate crisis became clear.

Changing rainfall patterns and more extreme weather events have been putting dams under strains that were not envisaged by their designers, said Vladimir Smakhtin, director of the UNU’s Institute for Water, Environment and Health in Canada, and co-author of the study. “The rising frequency and severity of flooding and other extreme environmental events can overwhelm a dam’s design limits and accelerate a dam’s ageing process,” he said.

Dam failure risks the lives of people living downstream, and ageing dams should be investigated to assess the threat, but large-scale failures were likely to remain rare, the authors of the paper told the Guardian. A more likely threat is that even without major accidents, countries dependent on large dams as reservoirs and for hydroelectricity may face problems if the dams are not adequately maintained to cope with climatic changes.

“This is an emerging risk,” said Smakhtin. “There is no immediate catastrophe at a global level, but there are 60,000 large dams spread around the world, and they all are not getting any younger.”

The climate crisis meant large dams across the world should be reassessed, said Duminda Perera, a senior researcher at the institute and lead author of the study. “Big floods and rainfall changes may be beyond the capacity of these structures, and may cause a higher risk of collapse,” he said.

One common issue is that more intense rainfall can cause upstream erosion of water courses, and floods increase the debris and silt flowing into dams, causing a buildup of sediment.

Most of the world’s large dams are concentrated in a small number of countries – nine out of 10 are located within 25 countries. China has the most, with nearly 24,000 large dams, while many more are found in India, Japan and South Korea. Nearly half of the world’s river volume is already affected by dams, and most existing large dams were built between 1930 and 1970, with an expected life expectancy of 50 to 100 years.

There are about 16,000 large dams aged between 50 and 100 years in North America and Asia, and 2,300 that are more than 100 years old. As of last year, more than 85% of large dams in the US were operating at or beyond their life expectancy. The estimated cost of refurbishing them is about $64bn (£47bn), according to the report.

Where decommissioning is necessary, governments will face complex problems. Few large dams have been decommissioned to date, so there are few examples to learn from. “It’s difficult to say how many may need to be decommissioned,” said Perera. “It is very context-specific, depending on the age and condition – different dams age at a different pace.”

Legal bid to stop UK building Europe's biggest gas power plant fails

Damian Carrington

Plan has been approved despite environmental objections and criticism over climate leadership

Sunset over Drax power station in North Yorkshire. The company says its new gas plant project is still not certain to go ahead. Photograph: Lee Smith/Reuters

A legal challenge to the UK government’s approval of a new gas-fired power plant has failed in the court of appeal.

The challenge was brought after ministers overruled climate change objections from the planning authority. The plant is being developed by Drax in North Yorkshire and would be the biggest gas power station in Europe. It could account for 75% of the UK’s power sector emissions when fully operational, according to lawyers for ClientEarth, which brought the judicial review.

In 2019 the Planning Inspectorate recommended that ministers refuse permission for the 3.6GW gas plant on the grounds that it “would undermine the government’s commitment, as set out in the Climate Change Act 2008, to cut greenhouse emissions [by having] significant adverse effects.”

Andrea Leadsom, the secretary of state for business, energy and industrial strategy at the time of the planning application, rejected the advice and gave the project the go-ahead in October 2019. The high court rejected ClientEarth’s initial legal challenge last May.

The UK is under international scrutiny as it prepares to host a UN climate summit in November. The country has cut its carbon emissions by 41% since 1990 and in 2019 was the first major economy to put into law a commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Boris Johnson produced a plan for a “green industrial revolution” in November.

But the government has been criticised for failing to stop a new coalmine in Cumbria, which it said was a local issue. This comment was derided by campaigners, and MPs warned it undermined the purpose of the Cop26 summit. Another, smaller gas plant is under construction by SSE in Lincolnshire.

The government has also been criticised for giving billions of pounds of financial support to fossil fuel projects overseas, including a gas project in Mozambique. Johnson said in December that this would end with “very limited exceptions”. A third runway at Heathrow, which campaigners say is incompatible with climate action, is still due to be built.

A Drax spokesperson said: “Drax power station plays a vital role in the UK’s energy system, generating reliable electricity for millions of homes and businesses.” He said the company aimed to be capturing more carbon dioxide than it emitted by 2030 by burning plants or wood in other power stations and burying the emissions.

He said the gas plant project was not certain to go ahead because it depended on Drax’s investment decisions and on securing a capacity market contract from the government.

“The climate and business case for large-scale gas power has only got worse since the Planning Inspectorate recommended Drax’s proposals be refused permission,” said ClientEarth’s lawyer Sam Hunter Jones. “The UK Climate Change Committee says that to get to net zero the UK needs a completely decarbonised power system by 2035 – that’s more than 15 years before the end of this project’s expected operating life.”

Hunter Jones said the ruling overturned the high court’s finding that major UK energy projects could not be rejected on climate grounds. “Decision-makers must now stop hiding behind planning policy to justify business-as-usual approvals of highly polluting projects,” he said. ClientEarth said it would not take the Drax case to the supreme court.

Doug Parr, the director of policy at Greenpeace UK, said: “This is yet another failure of climate leadership from the UK government ahead of a crucial UN climate summit. Ministers are behaving like someone trying to galvanise a pacifist rally by waving a machine gun.

“The government must U-turn and halt climate-wrecking projects, while the onus is also on Drax to do the right thing and take this project off the table.”

There have been a series of legal challenges in the last year against polluting infrastructure projects on climate grounds. The Good Law Project is pursuing legal action over decade-old energy policies it says the government was using to approve fossil fuel projects. A legal challenge by Transport Action Network aims to prevent billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money being spent on a huge road-building programme.

A spokesperson for the Department of Business, Enterprise and Industrial Strategy said: “We welcome the court of appeal’s ruling. As we transition to net zero emissions by 2050, our record levels of investment in renewables will meet a large part of the energy demand. However, natural gas will still provide a reliable source of energy while we develop and deploy low carbon alternatives.”

Biden returns US to Paris climate accord hours after becoming president

Oliver Milman

Biden administration rolls out a flurry of executive orders aimed at tackling climate crisis

Joe Biden kicks off his new administration with orders to restore the United States to the Paris climate accord. Photograph: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

Joe Biden has moved to reinstate the US to the Paris climate agreement just hours after being sworn in as president, as his administration rolls out a cavalcade of executive orders aimed at tackling the climate crisis.

Biden’s executive action, signed in the White House on Wednesday, will see the US rejoin the international effort curb the dangerous heating of the planet, following a 30-day notice period. The world’s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases was withdrawn from the Paris deal under Donald Trump.

Biden is also set to block the Keystone XL pipeline, a bitterly contested project that would bring huge quantities of oil from Canada to the US to be refined, and halt oil and gas drilling at Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante, two vast national monuments in Utah, and the Arctic national wildlife refuge wilderness. The Trump administration’s decision to shrink the protected areas of Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante will also be reviewed.

The flurry of first-day action on the climate crisis came after Biden, in his inauguration speech, said America needed to respond to a “climate in crisis”. The change in direction from the Trump era was profound and immediate – on the White House website, where all mentions of climate were scrubbed out in 2017, a new list of priorities now puts the climate crisis second only behind the Covid pandemic. Biden has previously warned that climate change poses the “greatest threat” to the country, which was battered by record climate-fueled wildfires, hurricanes and heat last year.

The re-entry to the Paris agreement ends a period where the US became a near-pariah on the international stage with Trump’s refusal to address the unfolding disaster of rising global temperatures. Countries are struggling to meet commitments, made in Paris in 2015, to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5C above the pre-industrial era, with 2020 setting another record for extreme heat.

“It’s just a huge day to get rid of this myopic, benighted administration and welcome in a new president who manifestly is committed to strong, meaningful action,” said Todd Stern, who was the lead US negotiator in Paris. “Rejoining Paris is just the first step, but it’s a big first step.”

Biden is expected to convene an international climate summit in the spring to help accelerate emissions cuts and will probably submit a new US emissions reduction goal to help it reach net zero emissions by 2050. “We can’t be afraid or diffident about exercising leadership again but we need a sense of humility in light of what has occurred over the past four years,” Stern said of America’s return to climate diplomacy. “The message is ‘we are back, let’s move hard.’ It will be deliberate, aggressive and strategic.”

Gina McCarthy, Biden’s top climate adviser, said Biden will in all reverse “more than 100” climate-related policies enacted by Trump.

The twice-impeached Republican repeatedly dismissed the science of climate change and spent his term as president weakening or overturning rules to limit pollution from cars, trucks and power plants. McCarthy said climate change poses an “existential threat” and the administration’s opening salvo “will begin to put the US back on the right footing, a footing we need to restore American leadership, helping to position our nation to be the global leader in clean energy and jobs”.

Biden will be able to unilaterally limit fossil fuel development on federal land and set tougher rules for fuel efficiency in cars and trucks but sweeping climate legislation to make deeper cuts in emissions will be more challenging to get through Congress.

While Democrats control the House, the Senate is split 50-50 and is unlikely to embrace anything styled like the Green New Deal, which has been championed by progressive representatives such as Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez. Instead, Biden’s hopes of providing huge financial support to boost clean energy such as solar and wind may rely upon funding being included in budgets and infrastructure bills.

“There is a serious backlog of needs in water systems, roads and bridges and other things and my colleagues understand that,” said Kathy Castor, a Florida Democrat who chairs the House’s select committee on the climate crisis. “We know we must go much further much faster. This is a race to the future.”

Scientists and climate campaigners have welcomed the urgency voiced by Biden given the ever-worsening impacts of the climate crisis across the world.

“Even if we can’t get new climate legislation, our executive branch already has many tools to act,” said Leah Stokes, an expert in environmental policy at the University of California. “The best time to cut emissions was decades ago; the second-best time is today.”

Canada is set to have one the world's biggest green hydrogen plants

• Canada could eventually be home to a number of large-scale green hydrogen facilities.

• At the moment, so-called “green hydrogen” is expensive to produce, with the majority of hydrogen production based on fossil fuels.

The logo of Thyssenkrupp displayed outside its offices in Essen, Germany.
INA FASSBENDER | AFP | Getty Images

A major green hydrogen project in Canada took another step forward with an engineering contract awarded to a subsidiary of German industrial giant Thyssenkrupp.

The agreement, announced on Monday, will see the green hydrogen product division of Thyssenkrupp Uhde Chlorine Engineers carry out the installation of an 88 megawatt water electrolysis plant for Hydro-Québec, an energy firm backed by the provincial government. 

Electrolysis splits water into oxygen and hydrogen, and if the electricity used in the process is from a renewable source — like wind — then it’s termed “green hydrogen.”

For the project in Canada, the electricity will come from hydropower. According to the Canadian government, hydro is responsible for 59.6% of electricity generation in the country.

Thyssenkrupp said the new facility will be constructed in Varennes, Québec, and will be able to generate 11,100 metric tons of green hydrogen per year.

The hydrogen and oxygen produced by the unit — the oxygen is a by-product of the process — is set to be used at a biofuel plant to generate biofuels for use in transportation. Commissioning of the green hydrogen facility is slated for the end of 2023.

Sami Pelkonen, who is CEO of Thyssenkrupp’s Chemical & Process Technologies business unit, described the Québec project as an “excellent illustration of how important the interaction of secure access to competitive renewable energy and the use of scaled technology for hydrogen production is.”

Canada could eventually be home to a number of green hydrogen facilities. Macquarie’s Green Investment Group, for example, is part of a consortium looking to develop another major plant that would be located in British Columbia, in the west of the country.

Big plans, big backers, big challenges

Over the last few years, major firms including Repsol, Siemens Energy, Orsted and BP have gotten involved in projects connected to green hydrogen production.

The EU has also laid out plans to install 40 gigawatts of renewable hydrogen electrolyzers and produce as much as 10 million metric tons of renewable hydrogen by the year 2030.

At the moment, however, the vast majority of hydrogen generation is based on fossil fuels, which in turn has an effect on the environment. The IEA has said that hydrogen production is responsible for roughly 830 million metric tons of carbon dioxide each year.

It’s within this context that the idea of green hydrogen is so attractive, although its role in the overall energy mix is small and accounts for just 0.1% of worldwide hydrogen production in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Green hydrogen is also expensive to produce, but an August 2020 report from Wood Mackenzie said costs could fall by as much as 64% by the year 2040.

Coal mine go-ahead 'undermines climate summit'

West Cumbria Mining Company

Britain's climate change leadership is being undercut by a government decision to allow a new coal mine in Cumbria, MPs have warned.

The UK is hosting a UN climate summit in November, where it will urge other nations to phase out fossil fuels.

The MPs say the government's decision to allow a new colliery at home will make it harder to secure a deal.

The Woodhouse mine was approved by Cumbria County Council because it will create jobs in an area of high unemployment.

The planning minister Robert Jenrick could have overruled it, but said the issue was best decided at a local level.

That verdict was derided by environmentalists, who pointed out that climate change from fossil fuel burning is a global problem.

Alok Sharma, who is leading the COP26 climate summit and who co-ordinates UK policies on climate change, was asked by the Commons business select committee whether the mine approval was "an embarrassment". He replied: "I take your point".

Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng told the committee there was a "slight tension" between approving the mine, near Whitehaven, and broader attempts to clean up the economy.

But he said ministers decided to allow the pit because it will produce coking coal for steel-making, which otherwise would have to be imported.

He said: "There's a slight tension between the decision to open this mine and our avowed intention to take coal off the grid… there was a debate in the government about what we could do about this, but this was a local planning decision.

"If we don't have sources of coking coal in the UK we would be importing those anyway".

This appears to run counter to advice from the Climate Change Committee which has said all coal - including coking coal - should be phased out by 2035. Doubts have been raised about investors in the mine being left with a "stranded asset" if the pit is forced to close on climate grounds.

'Laziness of thinking'

The mine approval is even more poignant because the UK founded the 'Powering Past Coal Alliance" - a global club to persuade nations to leave coal in the ground.

A source close to the Alliance secretariat told BBC News that staff were enraged by the decision. They believed the decision had been made to help secure so-called "Red Wall" votes in areas which previously voted Labour .

Mohamed Adow, from a pressure group, Powershift Africa, told BBC News: "It is quite bizarre that the UK government, in the year it hosts the biggest global climate talks since the signing of the Paris Agreement, has approved a new coal mine."

The young campaigner Greta Thunberg said the decision showed pledges to achieve net zero emissions targets by 2050 "basically mean nothing".

Darren Jones, chair of the business committee, told BBC News it would be hard for the UK to persuade countries like Poland to abandon coal whilst building a mine.

He argued that the government should have found another way to bring jobs to Cumbria. He said: "Carbon-intensive industries are looking to the government for leadership on the transition to a green future.

"Backing coal at home doesn't look in line with the recent Energy White Paper and certainly makes our efforts to secure international agreement on ambitious decarbonisation harder to achieve."

The Environmental Audit Committee Chairman, Philip Dunne, told BBC News: "If the UK is to achieve its ambition to be an environmental world leader, the government must offer clear guidance on how we can take every industry to net-zero, and offer a pipeline of investable projects.

"The steel sector needs to develop alternatives to importing coking coal. This could also support the next generation of green jobs - which are urgently needed."

The cross-bench peer Baroness Worthington told BBC News: "This decision is real laziness of thinking from the government. Just think of signal it sends to all those countries who want to cling on to coal.

"The government doesn't yet have a cohesive strategy that makes sense. It's crazy. Absolute madness."

Fighting climate crisis made harder by Covid-19 inequality, says WEF

Larry Elliott

Environmental issues are biggest danger in coming years, says international organisation

Flooding in Hyderabad, India. The WEF said extreme weather events were one of top risks caused by the climate emergency. Photograph: Mahesh Kumar A/AP

Tackling the existential risk posed by the climate crisis will be made harder by the growing gap between rich and poor triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic, the World Economic Forum has said.

The body that organises the annual gathering of the global elite in the Swiss town of Davos said warning signs of the threat posed by infectious disease had been ignored for the past 15 years, with disastrous results.

Despite the loss of almost 2 million lives to Covid-19, the WEF’s global risks report found that environmental issues were considered to pose the biggest danger in the coming years, both in terms of impact and likelihood.

Klaus Schwab, the executive chairman of the WEF, said: “In 2020, the risk of a global pandemic became reality. As governments, businesses and societies survey the damage inflicted over the last year, strengthening strategic foresight is now more important than ever.”

Schwab added: “Growing societal fragmentation – manifested through persistent and emerging risks to human health, rising unemployment, widening digital divides, and youth disillusionment – can have severe consequences in an era of compounded economic, environmental, geopolitical and technological risks.”

The WEF report said the Covid-19 pandemic had widened longstanding health, economic and digital disparities, making it harder to secure the international cooperation needed to combat challenges such as environmental degradation.

Extreme weather events were considered to be the top risk measured by the likelihood of them happening, followed by climate action failure, human environmental damage, infectious diseases and bio-diversity loss.

The top five risks in terms of impact were infectious diseases, climate action failure, weapons of mass destruction, biodiversity loss and natural resource crises.

For the first time, the report assessed risks according to when respondents thought they would pose a critical threat to the world. Short-term dangers – which could happen at any time in the next two years – revealed concern about infectious diseases, employment crises, digital inequality and youth disillusionment.

Over the medium term – three to five years – respondents believe the world will be threatened by knock-on economic and technological risks, which may take several years to materialise – such as asset bubble bursts, IT infrastructure breakdown, inflation and debt crises. Longer term concerns – five to 10 years – were dominated by existential threats, such as weapons of mass destruction, state collapse and biodiversity.

The WEF said it was hard for governments and businesses to address long-term risks but the pandemic had shown that ignoring the dangers did not make them less likely to happen.

The global risks survey is normally released a week before the annual meeting of the WEF but the pandemic has meant only a virtual event has been possible. A physical gathering is planned for Singapore in May.

Simple change to fishing gear saves thousands of birds in Namibia

Birds that became tangled in baited lines appear to be scared off by coloured pipes

Crewmen attaching bird-scaring lines to an industrial trawler in Namibia. Photograph: RSPB

A cheap and simple change to the equipment used by Namibian fishing boats is saving tens of thousands of vulnerable seabirds annually, researchers have estimated.

Some industrial fleets often use long lines fitted with thousands of baited hooks, which attract seabirds. In attempting to snatch away the bait, the birds can become tangled in the lines and die.

Atlantic yellow-nosed albatross Photograph: EduardoMSNeves/Alamy Stock Photo

But by fitting pieces of red or yellow hosepipe, each a few metres long, to the lines towed behind boats, they have succeeded in scaring away the birds and preventing huge numbers of deaths, according to a study in the Biological Conservation journal.

More than 22,000 birds were estimated to have been accidentally killed by long-line fishing gear in 2009. But just 215 are thought to have died in 2018, despite boats using more hooks that year.

Among the many species to have benefited are white-chinned petrels, Atlantic yellow-nosed albatrosses and cape gannets, whose populations are all declining.

“In many other areas where I work where we lose threatened species, it would be unheard of to reduce mortality by 90% over a decade,” said co-author Steffen Oppel at the RSPB Centre for Conservation Science in Cambridge. He and his team used data from onboard surveys of Namibian shipping vessels to gauge the overall number of seabird deaths annually.

The waters off Namibia’s coast are rich in nutrients and support an abundance of marine life. For seabirds, it is a crucial feeding ground.

But, in the past, boats would sometimes collect boxes full of dead birds that had snagged themselves on fishing lines.

“The fact that we have done something about it … that gives me a great sense of joy and achievement,” said the report’s co-author, Titus Shaanika of BirdLife International’s Albatross Task Force in Namibia.

The use of bird-scaring devices on fishing lines became mandatory in Namibia in 2015.

Shaanika added that the local industry is generally supportive of methods to cut bird deaths, partly because of the relatively low cost. Installing hosepipe streamers on a long fishing line costs about N$4,000, or £200.

Besides the colourful hosepipe, which is prepared by a team of five women working at the port of Walvis Bay, conservationists have also promoted the use of weights attached to the baited hooks. These cause the hooks to sink to 10 metres or more below the surface – too deep for seabirds to reach when diving.

“I think it’s a real success story,” said Prof Ed Melvin at the University of Washington, who was not involved in the research but who has designed bird-scaring line systems.

Experiments going back decades show the effectiveness of such methods, he added, but it is rare to find a case study proving that they work on such a scale.

Because albatrosses do not begin to breed until later in life – and even then only sparingly – their populations are particularly sensitive to adult deaths, Melvin said. This was why efforts to protect them are so important.

Namibia’s trawler ships – which drag nets through the water to catch fish – have also switched to using streamers on their gear. The study found that the number of birds killed had fallen although the reduction was not as dramatic as for ships using long, baited lines.

The study authors suggest that this was likely down to the fact that some crews are reluctant to use bird-scaring lines in case they get tangled in their fishing gear.

Shaanika said his group was now working with trawlers to install equipment that would reduce the chance of this happening. “It just shows how much we can achieve if we work together and listen to each other,” he said.

THE GREEN ROOM (Episode 9): Ami Vitale on SUSTAINABLE PHOTOGRAPHY (When Pictures Tell Stories for Change)

GREEN ROOM: LIVE WEBINAR

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Summary of the Discussion

The Moderator kicked off the discussion with the introduction of our guest Ami Vitale, an Award-winning Photojournalist with the National Geographic Magazine. Ami Vitale talked about her early career as a Journalist and the need to be determined in the face of despair.  She shared amazing stories of her project on Northern White Rhinos, a project that was first rejected but today has attracted attention from different parts of the world and the Save Giraffe Now project, both from Kenya.  Ami also advised upcoming creatives on the need to gain different skills that will help them achieve their unique vision. She also expatiates on the importance to be ethical and unbiased in journalism.

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LISTEN TO PODCAST

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Nikon Ambassador and National Geographic Magazine photographer Ami Vitale has traveled to more than 100 countries, bearing witness not only to violence and conflict, but also to surreal beauty and the enduring power of the human spirit.

ABOUT THE MODERATOR

Dr. Jason J. McSparren is an educator, researcher, and administrator with a PhD. in Global Governance and Human Security from Massachusetts Boston. He is also a Pre-Doctoral Fellow (2017-18) for the West African Research Association (WARA).

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QUESTIONS AND ANSWER

Jason McSparren: Yes, please ask questions. We know that we've got a really interesting audience on this fantastic topic. Okay. So, let's see. We have a question here. Okay. This is actually a statement right here. We have a question from Paulina Ondarza. And she asks, this is she says this is so powerful and inspiring. Loved that you pointed out that often, the solutions or a second half of the story is left out. How do you interact? How do you turn a tragic story into one of hope doing it justice on both sides? So how would you approach that as a Storyteller as a Photojournalist?

Ami Vitale: Thank you. That's such a great question. I mean, I think that the immediate thing is to like feel the sense of despair when you, there are days I mean to be totally honest, there are days it's hard to get out of bed. Truly, you just look at the world like, oh my God, I don't even know, it's like one thing and the next thing and you just think it can't get any worse and then it does right? I literally sometimes just have to channel that despair into and I remember I mean, I have the privilege of meeting the people on the ground and I realized when you actually think about it, there is no other answer than having hope and then looking at the people the real heroes on the ground and I think you know there are answers and we have all the capacity to turn this around. If you think about the amount of money and things that we spend our money on and the things that we put our importance on. I mean if you channelled just a percentage of what we value in today's world and channelled it back into these causes and people in organizations and institutions, we got this and I think people are incredibly smart.

 It's really about what we choose to prioritize and I think as storytellers, it's up to us to not just get overwhelmed by the despair and give up. We have to actively seek out the solution and I see this happening all the time, where journalists and writers will write these beautiful stories, but then we don't give people, we don't point them in the right direction, and I know that there was always this question when I was growing up and studying journalism. It was like don't cross that ethical line like you're not an activist and I'm I agree, you know, my role is not to be the activist. I'm the Storyteller, but I also think that it's not enough to just point out the challenges and leave it there. What next, like you got to point people to the institutions, give the viewpoint from all sides, a multitude of viewpoints is very important, but then you know, definitely it's okay to point out who's doing this work and give you know, give the credit where the credit's due.

I think often journalists kind of insert themselves inside the story and that's okay. But remember to make it about the people that, you're writing about does that kind of answer it

Jason McSparren: I would think so and actually just want to say that the way that you approach that answer kind of touched on a question that I was going to ask earlier and I just want to ask the question at respectively and make a comment because on your website, which is a really interesting website to take a look at amivitale.com. In one of the stories toward the end, Ami mentions that she uses her photography to amplify the voices of others and I think you just explain that whole sentiment in that motivation in your previous comment, but I just think that it's really important that because I saw in the comment, somebody's asking what is your motivation? And I think that is an element of your motivation. It's really you as you said early like to be behind the camera out of the spotlight and really amplifying and elevate the actions and the motivations in the voices of other people doing really interesting and important work.

Ami Vitale: Yeah, I think you get to a certain point the motivations is I've been really blessed to see all these different things in life and you get to a certain point where you just start to see the connections between all of humanity, all of the natural world and that it isn't just about you know, there's a sense of humility that I think comes after a certain time where you just filled with gratitude and wanting to make the connections, realizing that we're a blip on this planet, we are a blip in time. What we do right now matters not just for us but truly like you just get the sense of the internal nests of this planet, and I know that sounds lofty, but it's really true and I think nature reminds us of that. I mean you get out in nature and it's humbling. It's deeply humbling

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Favourite Quote

“All stories of humanity are always related to the stories of the natural world, our environment.”

— Ami Vitale

“The People, the indigenous people living with the wildlife...Honestly, they hold the key to saving what is left, they are the greatest protector of what is left.”

— Ami Vitale

“Almost every story has been told in a variety of different ways, but only you can bring back your unique vision and your unique way and bring frankly, your unique access.”

— Ami Vitale

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Top Comment

Thank you Ami for sharing your vision, passion and inspiration- Michelle

Hello from Atlanta and a former Seattleite for 30 years. As another female photographer for 32 years, I have seen you speak at a Nat Geo lectures as well as watched your career grow. I wanted to tell you how much I have admired your perseverance. I really appreciate the conservation angle you have taken along with your statements against social media. Thank you!- Dani Weiss

​Happy to be here and listen to Ami. Thanks Green Institute for this opportunity. Greetings from Ukraine! ❤- MissKKate

Hi, Ami from Munich! I admire your work so much.- Kristina Assenova

Nice content learnt some good things-Thomas James

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Indonesia earthquake: dozens dead after tremors and landslides hit Sulawesi

Rebecca Ratcliffe

Indonesia earthquake: rescue workers search rubble with dozens reported dead – video

At least 34 people have been killed and hundreds injured following a strong earthquake that shook Indonesia’s Sulawesi island early on Friday morning, prompting landslides and destroying houses.

Thousands of people fled their homes to seek safety when the 6.2-magnitude earthquake hit just after 1am local time on Friday morning. The epicentre was six kilometres north-east of Majene city in West Sulawesi.

Hundreds of buildings have been destroyed or damaged, including a hospital, which has collapsed with more than a dozen patients and staff remain trapped beneath it.

“The hospital is flattened,” said Arianto, who goes by one name, from the rescue agency in Mamuju city, near to Majene. Rescuers were also trying to reach a family of eight buried beneath the rubble of their destroyed home, he added.

The death toll includes 26 people in Mamuju city. “That number could grow but we hope it won’t,” said Ali Rahman, head of the local disaster mitigation agency. “Many of the dead are buried under rubble.”

In Majene, four fatalities were reported earlier, while 637 others were said to be injured.

The full extent of the damage caused by the quake, which was 10 kilometres deep, is still emerging. Accessing affected areas is a challenge: roads are blocked, bridges have fallen and the local airport in Mamuju has also been damaged. Electricity is cut and phone lines are down.

Videos shared on social media showed panicked residents rushing to safety, and collapsed homes brought down by the quake. In one video, a father could be heard asking people to help rescue his children buried under rubble.

“My children there ... they are trapped inside, please help,” he said.

Footage released by the National Disaster Mitigation Agency showed a girl trapped in the wreckage of a house crying out for help. Her mother was alive but unable to move out, she said. “Please help me, it hurts,” the girl told rescuers.

Rescuers search for survivors at the Mitra Manakarra hospital in Mamuju city Photograph: FIRDAUS/AFP/Getty Images

Busrah Basir Maras, a teacher, 36, was sleeping at home in Malunda, Majene, when the earthquake hit. His family awoke him and they fled immediately on motorbike.

“It took six hours for me to drive my motorcycle [away from] the epicentre. But it was hard because there were many landslides. I was crying and I am still crying,” he told the Guardian.

His family were safe but the head of his village was killed under a collapsed building. Many people have died, he added: “They were sleeping and then buried in the collapsed building.”

Survivors who were still stuck in rubble at the epicentre needed medicines and trauma healing, he said.

People look at the damaged office of governor of West Sulawesi following an earthquake in Mamuju. Photograph: Antara Foto/Reuters

Friday’s inland quake was felt strongly for about seven seconds. It did not trigger a tsunami warning, but people along coastal areas fled to higher ground as a precaution.

The head of Indonesia’s Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), Dwikorita Karnawati, told a news conference that strong aftershocks could follow, and that another powerful quake could still trigger a tsunami.

In 2018, the city of Palu in Sulawesi was struck by a devastating 6.2-magnitude quake and tsunami that killed thousands of people.

At least 26 aftershocks have been recorded in the area over the past day. The same district was hit by a 5.9 magnitude quake on Thursday afternoon, which damaged several homes.

Indonesia, a nation of high tectonic activity, is no stranger to earthquakes. It is often struck by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis because of its location on the “Ring of Fire”, an arc of volcanoes and fault lines in the Pacific Basin.

The response to Friday’s quake is complicated further by the coronavirus, which Indonesia has struggled to contain. The number of daily cases topped 10,000 this week.

“One of our biggest fears is exactly what’s going on right now – what happens when there’s a major event during a pandemic? It’s a perfect storm,” Jan Gelfand, Indonesia head, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.

“If you have people who are evacuated, the risk [of infection] for those people goes up tremendously,” said Gelfand. “You don’t want to put people in more danger than they are already in.”

Sirajuddin, the Majene district’s disaster agency chief, said 10,000 people were in temporary shelters.

Rescuers search for survivors among the ruin of a building damaged by an earthquake in Mamuju Photograph: Daus Thobelulu/AP

UN urges nations to scale up climate change adaptation to avoid major economic loss

Emma Newburger

Governments across the world must significantly scale up climate adaptation measures to avoid major economic damage from global warming, according to a new UN report.

• Nearly 75% of nations have adopted some form of climate adaption. But major gaps remain in financing for developing countries, which are most vulnerable to rising temperatures, the report said.

• Under the Paris Climate Agreement, nations are attempting to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) compared with preindustrial levels.

Residents in boats inspect the floodwaters flowing from the Tittabawassee River into the lower part of downtown on May 20, 2020 in Midland, Michigan.

Gregory Shamus | Getty Images

Governments across the world must significantly scale up climate adaptation measures to avoid major economic damage from global warming, according to the fifth edition of the UN Environment Programme Adaptation Gap report.

Nations must put half of all global climate financing towards adaptation in the next year in order to avoid the worst impact of climate change, according to the report published on Thursday. In 2020, the hottest year on record, on par with 2016, the world experienced record-breaking hurricanes and wildfires that continue to intensify as temperatures rise.

Such a commitment would include investing in nature-based solutions to mitigate climate change, such as practices like replanting trees on degraded land, sequestering more carbon in soil through agricultural practices and protecting forests through changing logging practices.

Nearly 75% of nations have adopted some form of climate adaption. But major gaps remain in financing for developing countries, which are most vulnerable to rising temperatures, as well as projects that have notably reduced climate risk, the report said.

The UN estimated that yearly climate adaption costs could reach between $140 billion and $300 billion by the end of the decade and between $280 billion and $500 billion by 2050, and concluded that global action is lagging far behind.

And while climate adaption projects are on the rise, the ongoing surge in global carbon emissions is putting those projects in jeopardy.

Under the Paris Climate Agreement, the global pact forged five years ago among nearly 200 nations, governments are attempting to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, compared with preindustrial levels.

The world is still on track for temperatures to rise over 3 degrees Celsius, or 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit, this century.

The report said that achieving the 2 degrees Celsius target could limit economic loss in annual growth of up to 1.6%, compared with 2.2% for warming of 3 degrees Celsius and urged nations to update their targets under the Paris accord to include new net-zero carbon goals.

“The hard truth is that climate change is upon us,” Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP, said in a statement. “Its impacts will intensify and hit vulnerable countries and communities the hardest – even if we meet the Paris Agreement goals.”

The report also called for governments prioritize climate change in their Covid-19 economic recovery plans, including a shift away from fossil fuels and toward investing in green technologies and restoring ecosystems.

The world’s largest economies have committed more than $12 trillion in recovering economies, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Scientists decry death by 1,000 cuts for world’s insects

Associated Press

Honeybees at beekeeper Denise Hunsaker's apiary in Salt Lake City on May 20, 2019.Rick Bowmer / AP

A package of 12 studies by 56 scientists around the globe lays out the threats to insects — and why it's bad news for Earth.

The world’s vital insect kingdom is undergoing “death by a thousand cuts,” the world’s top bug experts said.

Climate change, insecticides, herbicides, light pollution, invasive species and changes in agriculture and land use are causing Earth to lose probably 1 percent to 2 percent of its insects each year, said University of Connecticut entomologist David Wagner, lead author in the special package of 12 studies in Monday’s Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences written by 56 scientists from around the globe.

The problem, sometimes called the insect apocalypse, is like a jigsaw puzzle. And scientists say they still don’t have all the pieces, so they have trouble grasping its enormity and complexity and getting the world to notice and do something.

Wagner said scientists need to figure out if the rate of the insect loss is bigger than with other species. “There is some reason to worry more,” he added, “because they are the target of attack” with insecticides, herbicides and light pollution.

Co-author and University of Illinois entomologist May Berenbaum, a National Medal of Science winner, said, “Insect decline is kind of comparable to climate change 30 years ago because the methods to assess the extent, the rate (of loss) were difficult.”

Making matters worse is that in many cases, people hate bugs, even though they pollinate the world’s foods, are crucial to the food chain and get rid of waste, she said.

Insects “are absolutely the fabric by which Mother Nature and the tree of life are built,” Wagner said.

Two well known ones — honeybees and Monarch butterflies — best illustrate insect problems and declines, he said. Honeybees have been in dramatic decline because of disease, parasites, insecticides, herbicides and lack of food.

Climate change-driven drier weather in the U.S. West means less milkweed for butterflies to eat, Wagner said. And changes in American agriculture remove weeds and flowers they need for nectar.

“We’re creating a giant biological desert except for soybeans and corn in a giant area of the Midwest,” he said.

Monday’s scientific papers don’t provide new data, yet show a big but incomplete picture of a problem starting to get attention. Scientists have identified 1 million insect species, while probably 4 million more are still to be discovered, Berenbaum said.

University of Delaware entomologist Doug Tallamy, who wasn’t part of the studies, said they highlight how the world has “spent the last 30 years spending billions of dollars finding new ways to kill insects and mere pennies working to preserve them.”

“The good news is, with the exception of climate change, individuals can do much to reverse insect declines,” Tallamy said in an email. “This is a global problem with a grassroots solution.”