Atmospheric research provides clear evidence of human-caused climate change signal associated with CO2 increases

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Claims that climate change is natural are inconsistent with atmospheric temperature trends

New research provides clear evidence of a human "fingerprint" on climate change and shows that specific signals from human activities have altered the temperature structure of Earth's atmosphere.

Differences between tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature trends have long been recognized as a fingerprint of human effects on climate. This fingerprint, however, neglected information from the mid to upper stratosphere, 25 to 50 kilometers above the Earth's surface.

"Including this information improves the detectability of a human fingerprint by a factor of five. Enhanced detectability occurs because the mid to upper stratosphere has a large cooling signal from human-caused CO2 increases, small noise levels of natural internal variability, and differing signal and noise patterns," according to the journal article, "Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature," published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Noise in the troposphere can include day-to-day weather, interannual variability arising from El Niños and La Niñas, and longer-term natural fluctuations in climate. In the upper stratosphere, the noise of variability is smaller, and the human-caused climate change signal is larger, so the signal can be much more easily distinguished.

"Extending fingerprinting to the upper stratosphere with long temperature records and improved climate models means that it is now virtually impossible for natural causes to explain satellite-measured trends in the thermal structure of the Earth's atmosphere," the paper states.

"This is the clearest evidence there is of a human-caused climate change signal associated with CO2 increases," according to lead author Benjamin Santer, an adjunct scientist in the Physical Oceanography Department at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute (WHOI) in Massachusetts.

"This research undercuts and rebuts claims that recent atmospheric and surface temperature changes are natural, whether due to the Sun or due to internal cycles in the climate system. A natural explanation is virtually impossible in terms of what we are looking at here: changes in the temperature structure of the atmosphere," added Santer, who has worked on climate fingerprinting for more than 30 years. "This research puts to rest incorrect claims that we don't need to treat climate change seriously because it is all natural."

The research was motivated by earlier work by Suki Manabe and Richard Wetherald, who in 1967 used a simple climate model to study how CO2 from fossil fuel burning might change atmospheric temperature. Their modeling found a very distinctive feature: an increase in CO2 levels led to more trapping of heat in the troposphere (the lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere) and less heat escaping higher up into the stratosphere (the layer above the troposphere), thus warming the troposphere and cooling the stratosphere. This prediction of tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling in response to increasing CO2 has been confirmed many times by more complex models and verified by comparing model results with global-mean atmospheric temperature observations from weather balloons and satellites.

Although these earlier studies considered global-mean temperature changes in the middle and upper stratosphere, roughly 25 to 50 kilometers above Earth's surface, they did not look at detailed patterns of climate change in this layer. This region can be better studied now because of improved simulations and satellite data. The new research is the first to search for human-caused climate change patterns -- also called "fingerprints" -- in the middle and upper stratosphere.

"The human fingerprints in temperature changes in the mid to upper stratosphere due to CO2 increases are truly exceptional because they are so large and so different from temperature changes there due to internal variability and natural external forcing. These unique fingerprints make it possible to detect the human impact on climate change due to CO2 in a short period of time (~10 -- 15 years) with high confidence," stated co-author Qiang Fu, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington.

"The world has been reeling under climate change, so being as confident as possible of the role of carbon dioxide is critical," said co-author Susan Solomon, Martin Professor of Environmental Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "The fact that observations show not only a warming troposphere but also a strongly cooling upper stratosphere is unique tell-tale evidence that nails the dominant role of carbon dioxide in climate change and greatly increases confidence."

Santer said that although it is intellectually gratifying to be able to extend fingerprinting higher up into the atmosphere to test the prediction by Manabe and Wetherald, it is also deeply concerning.

"As someone who tries to understand the kind of world that future generations are going to inhabit, these results make me very worried. We are fundamentally changing the thermal structure of Earth's atmosphere, and there is no joy in recognizing that," Santer said.

"This study shows that the real world has changed in a way that simply cannot be explained by natural causes," Santer added. "We now face important decisions, in the United States and globally, on what to do about climate change. I hope those decisions are based on our best scientific understanding of the reality and seriousness of human effects on climate."

Funding for the study was provided by National Science Foundation, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, and the Francis E. Fowler IV Center for Ocean and Climate at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

UN warns heat records could be broken as chance of El Niño rises

Agence France-Presse

There is estimated 60% chance event will develop by end of July, and 80% chance of it by end of September

Severe droughts can occur in Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia during an El Niño pattern. Photograph: Outback Australia/Alamy

The chance of an El Niño weather phenomenon developing in the coming months has risen, the United Nations has said, warning that it could fuel higher global temperatures and possibly new heat records.

The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Wednesday that it now estimated there was a 60% chance that El Niño would develop by the end of July, and an 80% chance it would do so by the end of September.

“This will change the weather and climate patterns worldwide,” Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the head of the WMO’s regional climate prediction services division, told reporters in Geneva.

El Niño, which is a naturally occurring climate pattern typically associated with increased heat worldwide, as well as drought in some parts of the world and heavy rains elsewhere, last occurred in 2018-19.

Since 2020 though, the world has been hit with an exceptionally long La Niña – El Niño’s cooling opposite – which ended earlier this year, giving way to the current neutral conditions.

And yet, the UN has said the last eight years were the warmest ever recorded, despite La Niña’s cooling effect stretching over nearly half that period. Without that weather phenomenon, the warming situation could have been even worse.

La Niña “acted as a temporary brake on global temperature increase”, the WMO chief, Petteri Taalas, said in a statement. Now, he said, “the world should prepare for the development of El Niño.”

The expected arrival of the warming climate pattern, he said, “will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records”.

At this stage, there is no indication of the strength or duration of the looming El Niño. The last one was considered very weak, but the one before that, between 2014 and 2016, was considered among the strongest ever, with dire consequences.

The WMO pointed out that 2016 was “the warmest year on record because of the “double whammy” of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming from greenhouse gases”.

Since the El Niño effect on global temperatures usually plays out the year after it emerges, the impact would probably be most apparent in 2024, it said.

“We are expecting in the coming two years to have a serious increase in the global temperatures,” Okia said.

Taalas highlighted that the expected arrival of El Niño could have some positive effects, pointing out that it “might bring respite from the drought in the Horn of Africa and other La Niña-related impacts”.

There has been a run of La Niña events in the past three years

Surface temperature anomalies and El Niño/La Niña events in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Niño 3.4 region)

Guardian graphic. Source: Noaa. Note: an El Niño phase is five consecutive three-month running mean anomalies above the threshold of +0.5C in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean. The threshold for a La Niña phase is -0.5C or below. Due to warming in the region, multiple centred 30-year base periods are used

But it “could also trigger more extreme weather and climate events” he said, stressing the need for effective early warning systems “to keep people safe”.

No two El Niño events were the same and their effects depended, in part, on the time of year, WMO said, adding that it and national meteorological services would be closely monitoring developments.

The climate pattern occurs on average every two to seven years, and usually lasts nine to 12 months. It is typically associated with warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

Increased rainfall is usually seen in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, while severe droughts can occur over Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia.

During summer in the northern hemisphere, El Niño’s warm water could also fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, while hindering hurricane formations in the Atlantic basin, the WMO said.

How Climate Technology Can Bolster National Climate Plans

UNFCCC NEWS

Credit: Prashanth Vishwanathan | IWMI

With climate change accelerating and time running out to decarbonize societies and to build resilience, technologies that can significantly shift the needle in terms of slashing greenhouse gas emissions and helping societies to adapt are urgently needed. To this end, the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism met in Songdo, Republic of Korea, last month to discuss the implementation of a new work programme.

The programme is focused on high-potential sectors and high-impact actions for innovation and development and transfer of transformative technologies, ranging from renewable forms of energy to sustainable transport, combined with effective policies.

The members of the Technology Executive Committee (TEC) and Climate Technology Centre and Network Advisory Board (CTCN) – the two bodies of the Technology Mechanism under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement discussed key examples of technologies that are transferable and scalable and can bolster national climate plans under the Paris Agreement (Nationally Determined Contributions, or “NDCs”). Here are three such examples:

Technology Action for Climate Empowerment in Uganda

Uganda's Action for Rural Women's Empowerment (ARUWE) is pioneering women-led energy cooperatives, utilizing climate technologies including photovoltaic solar panels, charcoal briquettes, and biogas to ensure a just energy transition in the country. The cooperatives, which include members from rural and indigenous communities, use a decentralized and cooperative renewable energy system to produce and distribute reliable and cost-effective energy to households, small businesses, and health centres. With a mission to empower rural women in Uganda and contribute to improving energy generation, access, and utilization from renewable sources, the cooperatives have formed an advocacy network to reach the district and national government to demonstrate the co-benefits of decentralized energy technologies in climate change mitigation and sustainable development.

Triangular cooperation on renewable energy technology transfer in Ghana and Zambia

In an impressive display of triangular cooperation on renewable energy technology transfer in Ghana and Zambia with China and the UN Development Programme UNDP, two African countries have managed to curb energy sector emissions. Triangular cooperation involves Southern-driven partnerships between two or more developing countries supported by a developed country or multilateral organization to implement development cooperation programmes and projects. Since its launch in 2015, the initiative has sought to transfer a suite of renewable energy technologies, including solar, small hydro power, biogas, and biomass cookstoves, to both Ghana and Zambia, and has made significant strides in meeting the national climate targets of both countries under the Paris Agreements. With international support, Zambia expects to be able to reduce emissions by almost 50%, and the Ghanaian government could set the unconditional target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 45% below business-as-usual levels by 2030.

Electric mobility in Cambodia

Cambodia is promoting low-emission transport modes by implementing electric motorcycles and a network of charging and maintenance stations. This technology, along with an incentive programme, is designed to reduce emissions, air pollution, and operating costs, while also providing significant economic benefits. The government, with the support of Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), plans to introduce an electric bus system in Siem Reap at a cost of USD 16 million from 2022 to 2024, and a Green Climate Fund (GCF) project proposal was to roll out 1,000 electric motorcycles in the space of a year. This move aligns with Cambodia's NDC mitigation target of reducing transport sector emissions through low-emission transport modes.

What’s next for the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism?

What should technology experts, practitioners and enthusiasts look out for in the coming months?

• The third and final part of technical dialogues of the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement is set to take place at the 58th session of the Subsidiary Bodies in June 2023 (SB 58), which presents a unique opportunity to enhance collective action on climate technology.

• The TEC will launch its work on water-energy-food nexus by hosting a thematic dialogue at the SB 58 in collaboration with FAO.

• The TEC will convene an event at the SB 58 with financial actors to raise awareness of the results of the Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) process in the broader climate change community.

• The TEC and CTCN will co-organize a Technology Mechanism side-event at SB 58 to share outcomes of their work on national systems of innovation.

Technology stakeholders are invited to actively participate in the activities above and add their voices to the collective efforts towards advancing the climate technology agenda under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement.

Use of antibiotics in farming ‘endangering human immune system’

Hannah Devlin

Study suggests antimicrobial used to promote livestock growth breeds bacteria more resistant to our natural defences

Escherichia coli. Unspalsh

A strain of E. coli more likely to evade our immune system’s first line of defence emerged as a result of using colistin as a growth promoter on pigs and chickens. Photograph: Science Photo Library/Alamy

The blanket use of antibiotics in farming has led to the emergence of bacteria that are more resistant to the human immune system, scientists have warned.

The research suggests that the antimicrobial colistin, which was used for decades as a growth promoter on pig and chicken farms in China, resulted in the emergence of E coli strains that are more likely to evade our immune system’s first line of defence.

Although colistin is now banned as a livestock food additive in China and many other countries, the findings sound an alarm over a new and significant threat posed by the overuse of antibiotic drugs.

“This is potentially much more dangerous than resistance to antibiotics,” said Prof Craig MacLean, who led the research at the University of Oxford. “It highlights the danger of indiscriminate use of antimicrobials in agriculture. We’ve accidentally ended up compromising our own immune system to get fatter chickens.”

The findings could also have significant implications for the development of new antibiotic medicines in the same class as colistin, known as antimicrobial peptides (AMPs), which the scientists suggest could pose a particular risk of compromising innate immunity.

AMPs are compounds produced by most living organisms in their innate immune response, which is the first line of defence against infection. Colistin is based on a bacterial AMP – microbes use the compounds to shield themselves against competitors – but is chemically similar to some AMPs produced in the human immune system.

The extensive use of colistin in livestock from the 1980s triggered the emergence and spread of E coli bacteria carrying colistin resistance genes, which eventually prompted widespread restrictions on the drug’s use in agriculture. But the latest study suggests the same genes also allow pathogens to more readily evade AMPs that form a cornerstone of our own immune response.

In the study, E coli carrying a resistance gene, called MCR-1, were exposed to AMPs known to play important roles in innate immunity in chickens, pigs, and humans. The bacteria were also tested for their susceptibility to human blood serum.

The scientists found that E coli carrying the MCR-1 gene were at least twice as resistant to being killed by human serum. On average, the gene increased resistance to human and animal AMPs by 62% compared with bacteria that lacked the gene. The study, published in the journal eLife, also showed that the resistant E coli was twice as likely to kill moth larvae that were injected with the infection, compared with the control E coli strain.

MacLean said it was not possible to estimate how this might translate into real-world consequences, such as the risk of an E coli infection leading to sepsis and death. And the prevalence of these strains of E coli have dropped steeply since China banned the use of colistin as a growth promoter, suggesting that these genes carry other “fitness disadvantages” for the pathogens. However, the findings highlight a fundamental risk that has not yet been extensively considered.

“The danger is that if bacteria evolve resistance to [AMP-based drugs], it could also make bacteria resistant to one of the pillars of our immune system,” said MacLean.

Antimicrobial resistance poses a dire global threat – the UN has warned that as many as 10 million people a year could be dying by 2050 as a result of superbugs – and so the need for new antibiotics is pressing. There is growing interest in the potential of AMPs as drugs, and some of those in development include drugs based on human AMPs.

MacLean and colleagues are not calling for the development of such drugs to be put on hold, but say extremely careful risk assessments of the likelihood of resistance emerging and the potential consequences are required. “For AMPs, there are potentially very serious negative consequences,” he said.

Dr Jessica Blair, of the University of Birmingham, who was not involved in the study, said: “Antimicrobial peptides, including colistin, have been heralded as a potential part of the solution to the rise of multidrug-resistant infections. This study, however, suggests that resistance to these antimicrobials may have unintended consequences on the ability of pathogens to cause infection and survive within the host.”

Dr George Tegos, of Mohawk Valley Health System in New York, said that broad conclusions about the potential risks of AMPs could not be drawn from a single study, but added that the findings “raise concerns that are reasonable and make sense”.

Cóilín Nunan, an adviser to the Alliance to Save Our Antibiotics, who was not involved in the study, said: “This new study shows that colistin resistance is probably even more dangerous than previously thought … It is also remarkable that the British government is still opposed to banning preventative mass medication of intensively farmed animals with antibiotics, even though the EU banned such use over a year ago.”

Unsafe water causes kidney, liver damage, cancer —Researcher, Akinsemolu

SEGUN KASALI speaks with an Institute of Advanced Studies (Ias) Vanguard Fellow, Dr Adenike Akinsemolu, on implications of unsafe water consumption.

Dr. Adenike A. Akinsemolu

What are the dangers and hazards of drinking unsafe and unclean water?

As an environmentalist with a decade of experience, researching in the Ilaje coastal region of Nigeria, I can confidently say that drinking unsafe and unclean water poses significant dangers and hazards to human health. The presence of harmful bacteria and viruses in such water can lead to various waterborne diseases such as cholera, typhoid fever, dysentery and hepatitis A.

In fact, diarrheal diseases caused by unsafe water and poor sanitation are among the leading causes of death globally, with 1.6 million deaths recorded in 2017 alone. To put this into perspective, this is more than all deaths from intentional injuries combined in the same year, including suicide, homicide, conflict and terrorism. In Nigeria, about 117,000 children die annually due to poor water quality and sanitation.

Additionally, my research work has shown that exposure to contaminated water can also have adverse effects on reproductive health. Heavy metals such as lead and cadmium, which are present in high levels in the water in the Ilaje coastal region can interfere with the reproductive system.

Pregnant women who are exposed to lead may be at a higher risk of giving birth prematurely, having low-birth-weight infants and experiencing developmental delays in their children. The accumulation of heavy metals in the body can also cause chronic health problems such as kidney damage, liver damage and cancer. Urgent action is needed to address these issues and provide access to safe and clean water for communities in the region.

Therefore, it is crucial to raise awareness on the importance of clean water and sanitation and promote sustainable water management practices to ensure the availability and accessibility of safe water for all. Providing clean and safe water to communities is not only a human right but also essential to promote health, sustainable development and economic growth.

What are the various health conditions caused by waterborne diseases?

As previously mentioned, waterborne diseases significantly threaten human health and can lead to severe health complications, including dehydration, diarrhoea, nausea, vomiting, and even death. In Nigeria, these diseases are responsible for approximately 70 percent of all illnesses, causing over 60,000 deaths annually, with children under five being the most vulnerable due to their weaker immune systems. The World Health Organisation (WHO) reports that approximately 485,000 people die each year from diarrheal diseases alone, with cholera and typhoid fever also having high morbidity rates and causing severe health complications.

Additionally, consuming unsafe water can lead to other health problems such as skin rashes, eye and parasitic infections. In my research work in the Ilaje coastal region, I have observed a high prevalence of waterborne diseases and other health conditions among communities due to the consumption of unsafe water.

Providing clean and safe water to communities is crucial in reducing the burden of waterborne diseases and improving the health and wellbeing of individuals, particularly in developing countries where access to clean water and sanitation is limited. Therefore, prioritising water sanitation and hygiene interventions is crucial to ensure the availability and accessibility of safe water for all. The impact of waterborne diseases on human health and wellbeing cannot be overstated and it is our collective responsibility to take action to ensure the provision of clean water to everyone.

How does the global water crisis disproportionately affect marginalised communities and exacerbate existing inequalities?

The global water crisis disproportionately affects marginalised communities and exacerbates existing inequalities in several ways. Firstly, marginalised communities such as low-income families, rural communities, and indigenous populations often lack access to clean and safe water due to inadequate infrastructure, poverty, and discrimination. According to the United Nations, approximately 2.2 billion people lack access to safe drinking water, with marginalised communities being the most affected.

Secondly, the water crisis affects women and girls disproportionately, as they are often responsible for water collection in many communities. The lack of access to clean and safe water puts women and girls at risk of sexual violence and harassment during their daily water collection activities.

Thirdly, the water crisis exacerbates existing health inequalities, as marginalised communities are more vulnerable to waterborne diseases due to their limited access to clean water and sanitation facilities. This results in higher morbidity and mortality rates among these communities, leading to a further widening of health inequalities.

Finally, the water crisis also exacerbates economic inequalities, as access to clean and safe water is essential for economic development and growth. The lack of access to water can limit the potential for economic activities such as agriculture which are essential for the livelihoods of many marginalised communities.

The global water crisis has a disproportionate impact on marginalised communities, exacerbating existing inequalities in access to water, health outcomes, and economic development. It is essential to prioritize the provision of clean and safe water to these communities and address the systemic inequalities that perpetuate the water crisis.

How can we ensure that water is recognised as a fundamental human right and protected as a public good rather than have it treated as a commodity to be privatised and sold for profit?

Water is a fundamental human right essential for the survival, health and dignity of all people. Therefore, it should be recognised as such and protected as a public good. This means that access to clean and safe water should be ensured for everyone without discrimination, regardless of their ability to pay. However, the reality is that water is often treated as a commodity that can be privatised and sold for profit, which can lead to inequalities in access to water, particularly for marginalised communities.

To ensure that water is recognsed as a fundamental human right and protected as a public good, there are several steps that can be taken. First, there needs to be increased awareness and advocacy around the importance of water as a human right and the negative impacts of privatisation on access to water. This can be achieved through education and outreach campaigns, as well as advocacy efforts at the local, national, and international levels.

Second, there need to be strong legal frameworks and policies in place to protect water as a public good. These include laws and regulations that ensure that access to water is equitable, affordable and of high quality and that prevent water resources from being privatised or exploited for profit. Governments must also be held accountable for upholding these laws and policies.

Third, investment in water infrastructure and services must be increased, particularly in underserved and marginalised communities. This includes expanding access to pipe water systems, improving water treatment and sanitation facilities and increasing the availability of water storage and distribution systems.

Ensuring that water is recognised as a fundamental human right and protected as a public good requires a multi-faceted approach that includes education and awareness-raising, strong legal frameworks and policies and increased investment in water infrastructure and services. We must prioritise these efforts to ensure that everyone has access to clean and safe water, regardless of their economic status or social standing.

Avian flu outbreak in the Gambia threatens birds on East Atlantic Flyway

Anna Turns

Hundreds of dead birds found in past three weeks as conservationists call for international funding to help stop the disease spreading on migration routes

Collecting birds killed by avian flu in the Gambia. The outbreak could affect birds from Africa to Europe and the UK. Photograph: Sacha Dench/Conservation Without Borders

An outbreak of avian influenza in seabirds in the Gambia could affect vast numbers of birds migrating along the East Atlantic Flyway, unless international funding is secured, warn conservationists.

Teams from the West African Bird Study Association (Wabsa), the Gambia’s Department of Parks and Wildlife Management, and UK-based NGO Conservation Without Borders have buried hundreds of dead birds over the past three weeks, including some ringed birds from Europe.

The Gambia’s Ministry of Agriculture confirmed the H5N1 outbreak on 4 April after analysing samples from Tanji bird reserve, about 12 miles from the capital, Banjul. The East Atlantic Flyway links bird migration routes from the Arctic Circle to southern Africa via western Europe.

“It’s migration season, so these outbreaks threaten birds and poultry all the way from Africa to Europe and the UK,” said Sacha Dench, founder of Conservation Without Borders and an ambassador for the UN’s Convention on Migratory Species, who saw more than 500 dead seabirds at two sites last week at the Tanji bird reserve.

“The local conservation organisation [Wabsa] is expected to respond yet can’t even afford the £24 boat fuel to go to Bijol Islands,” Dench said. “The cost of it spreading is so much more than simply surveillance and control by good field workers.”

Many low- to-middle-income countries have limited conservation funds, she added. “Most rely on international funding and some money from tourism to pay for the services of local park staff. But when an emergency like bird flu hits, the government has priorities like chicken being important protein for local people.

“Rapid reaction is critical. So having staff on the ground with the resources that enable them to act is essential,” said Dench, who secured temporary funds for the boat fuel. She has written to ask the UK government to help fund the surveillance and disposal of infected birds, a critical matter for the government at a time when the UK’s bird flu restrictions on free-range poultry are only just being lifted.

“Investing in monitoring activities in developing countries would save a lot of birds we love, and could save [the poultry farming] industry a lot of money,” said Dench, who hopes that other national governments could also support the Gambia’s avian flu recovery efforts. “This is more than conservation, this is management of a global pandemic, and we should at least be offering assistance to those with less resources on the migration flyways that the UK sits right at the centre of.”

Fagimba Camara, head of the research unit at Wabsa, who has been monitoring the Bijol Islands and digging holes in the sand to bury dead birds, says that minimising spread of infection is a “big task”.

“This is the most important place for migratory species in the Gambia because we record so many in large numbers, including royal terns, Caspian terns, ruddy turnstones and osprey, which fly from Scotland and other parts of Europe for their wintering time.” At the beginning of the month, Camara found 246 dead birds. This week, his team found 107, mainly royal terns. “At least we are seeing the number of affected birds decreasing [on Bijol Islands],” he said, although numbers are increasing elsewhere in the Gambia.

Awa Joof, research officer for Wabsa, said: “The most difficult thing to do is dig bird graves, so it is definitely so sad for me to see birds dying in such large numbers.”

Campaigners urge action over carbon footprint of disposable nappies

James Hockaday

Reusables have 25% less global heating potential, finds UK government report, but overall picture is mixed

Disposable nappies are one of the biggest single contributors to plastic waste worldwide. Photograph: Alamy

Environmental campaigners are calling on the UK government to take action after new analysis found a significant difference between the carbon footprints of washable and disposable nappies.

Reusable nappies have 25% less global heating potential compared with single-use nappies, according to a report commissioned by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra).

The environmental impact of production was shown to be nearly nine times greater for single-use nappies, and nearly 10 times greater when it came to their disposal.

However, the report paints a mixed picture, with reusable nappies given a worse impact score for 11 of 18 categories – mainly associated with water and electricity usage when washing and drying.

Disposable nappies are one of the biggest single contributors to plastic waste worldwide, but a 2005 life cycle analysis declared there was “little or no difference between the environmental impact of reusable and disposable nappies”.

This resulted in a lack of action from policymakers, according to campaigners, who say the government has a responsibility to make it easier for parents to switch to reusables.

“We’ve seen the British government be really bold on lots of stuff to do with single-use plastic,” said Elisabeth Whitebread of the Nappy Alliance campaign group. “We’ve had the first plastic packaging tax in the world, we’ve recently seen them banning single-use plastic cutlery and plates, but by the number of items, as well as the weight and volume, nappies represent a much greater contribution to single-use plastic waste.

“This clearly needs policy initiative but also awareness raising – so many people don’t even think about nappies as a single-use plastic.”

Hilary Vick, a founder of the washable nappy service Nappy Ever After, added: “The playing field is unequal because parents and carers have the task and the expense of washing nappies and the time it takes, and yet the disposal of nappies is free. They’re readily available in supermarkets, which makes it seem normal – governments and local authorities have a responsibility to go against those norms.”

While Defra’s report could be a significant step forward for the reusable industry, single-use nappies were only found to leave a worse impact in seven of the categories, including global heating potential, land use, fossil resource scarcity and water use in manufacturing. But campaigners say these effects are particularly critical in light of the climate crisis.

Reusable nappies scored worse in areas including marine eutrophication, freshwater ecotoxicity, mineral resource scarcity, marine ecotoxicity and water consumption. The main factors behind their effects are water, detergent and electricity use when washing and drying nappies, and flushing faeces.

The report says parents can lessen their impact by using energy-efficient washing machines, air drying instead of tumble drying and passing nappies to a second child.

The Absorbent Hygiene Product Manufacturers Association (AHPMA) pointed to a 28% reduction in the global heating potential of disposables since 2005, as improved technology had led to smaller nappies and fewer materials being used in production – the reduction for reusables was 38.5%

The industry body suggested the difference in CO2 impact set out in the latest report was not as great as it might appear at first glance. It pointed to the report’s comparison of 2.5 years in disposable nappies to 6.4 return car journeys from London to Nottingham (1,622 miles), compared with 4.8 journeys (1,223 miles) for reusables – amounting to a difference of 400 miles.

“This should reassure parents and carers that both options represent responsible choices for babies, as they also consider performance, skin health benefits, and convenience when deciding on the best nappy option based on their individual family needs and lifestyles,” the AHPMA added.

A Defra spokesperson said: “We are committed to maximising resources and minimising waste, and are reviewing the findings of this analysis.”

Toxic PFAS chemicals used in packaging can end up in food, study finds

Compostable packaging is popular for environmental reasons, but it can be treated with ‘forever chemicals’ linked to health problems

A group of toxic PFAS chemicals that industry has claimed is safe to use in food packaging are concerning and present a health threat because they can break off and end up in food and drinks, a new peer-reviewed study finds.

Photo by Clair on Unsplash

The subgroup of PFAS, called “fluorotelomers”, have been billed as a safe replacement for a first generation of PFAS compounds now largely phased out of production in the US, Canada and the EU because of their high toxicity.

But the Guardian revealed in 2021 how chemical manufacturers had hid research showing that fluorotelomers may also be highly toxic, and the new study highlights how the compounds can move from packaging into food. Researchers say the paper highlights the need to ban the use of PFAS in food packaging.

“The continued use of PFAS in food packaging should be questioned given opportunities for the chemicals’ release and exposure,” the study’s authors wrote.

PFAS, or per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, are a class of about 14,000 chemicals often used to make products resistant to water, stains and heat. They are called “forever chemicals” because they do not naturally break down, and they are linked to cancer, liver problems, thyroid issues, birth defects, kidney disease, decreased immunity and other serious health problems.

For decades, the chemicals have been added to paper wrappers, bags, plates, cups and other food packaging to help repel grease and water that would otherwise deteriorate the products. The chemicals are also added to some plastic food packaging as a barrier to prevent spoilage, and are especially common in the type of molded fiber bowls often marketed as “green” and “compostable”.

The US Food and Drug Administration in 2020 reached a “voluntary agreement” with some packaging producers to a five-year phaseout of 6:2 FTOH, a fluorotelomer regularly used in food packaging, after the agency learned that chemical manufacturers had hid evidence of its toxicity.

The University of Toronto study coauthor Miriam Diamond said that researchers suspect that 6:2 FTOH and similar compounds are no longer being added to food packaging, but the chemicals’ presence may be a byproduct of the use of another group of PFAS called “fluoropolymers”.

Industry has claimed fluoropolymers do not move from food packaging into food because they are larger than most other PFAS. But the large structure can contain 6:2 FTOH, which Diamond said may break off from the fluoropolymer after the chemical is added to food packaging.

That process could create a loophole. While companies may no longer add 6:2 FTOH to food packaging and are in compliance with the phaseout, the compound still seems to end up in packaging after manufacture.

“They could say: ‘Hey, we’re complying – we’re not adding 6:2 FTOH,’” Diamond said. The process could also help companies skirt Canadian government’s de minimis levels for PFAS.

The study checked 42 pieces of packaging from popular fast-food restaurants that serve burgers, burritos, salads, fries, doughnuts and other common foods, and found PFAS in about half.

Researchers stored eight of the PFAS-contaminated products in a dark, enclosed area for two years and found as much as an 85% drop in PFAS levels, which proved PFAS breaks off from packaging.

“We were really dismayed,” Diamond said of the findings.

She noted the rate at which the chemicals broke off from the packaging was high despite the pieces being kept in benign conditions. Research shows PFAS migrates at much higher rates when in contact with food or liquid that is acidic or served at high temperatures, and the findings suggest a potential health threat, Diamond added.

“You don’t need a whole lot of release to increase the levels of PFAS in food, or to be introduced into the home or environment,” she said. “This shows how mobile the chemicals are.”

The research comes as the Canadian government and other nations work to phase out single-use plastics, which will increase global reliance on “compostable” molded fiber packaging that researchers found contained the highest PFAS levels. However, PFAS are not compostable because they do not degrade, and in 2020 a major sustainable packaging group that certifies products as compostable discontinued its certification of products that contain the chemicals.

The research found the levels at which the chemicals migrated to food and drinks would exceed advisory daily intake limits set for some PFAS compounds by the Canadian government and the EU.

The study’s authors wrote that switching from plastic to PFAS-tainted packaging raises a new set of concerns.

“It would represent a regrettable substitution of trading one harmful option for another,” the authors wrote.

IWD2023: Dr. Adenike Akinsemolu named among 100 Women Creating a Better Africa (100WCBA) by WeForGood.

WeForGood 2023 100 Women Creating a Better Africa (100WCBA)

weforgood

WeForGood, a sustainable solutions and impact design firm list the Green Institute Director, Dr. Adenike Akinsemolu among the 4th annual 100 Women Creating a Better Africa (100WCBA).

In marking the International Women Day 2023 on March 8, 2023, the faces of the women were unveil to want to celebrate and encourage them and hopefully inspire more women to take action.

The list features former presidents, CEOs of organisations as well as students leading change in their communities. The women on this list come from varied backgrounds, ranging from tech to agriculture. There’s also a wide scope in terms of their years of experience and the length of time they’ve been making an impact. Nevertheless, all 100 of them share the common trait which defines the initiative: they’re doing their bit in small and big ways, showing up daily to create a better continent for us and future generations.

Water is life, but it can also be death

Adenike Akinsemolu

Water is life. We all know that. It's the most basic and essential element that we need to survive. But have you ever thought about how water can also be death? In the Ilaje coastal community, Ondo State, Nigeria, I met a mother who knows this all too well. She lost her child to the floods that ravaged their community. Her child, who slept in the same room as her, was swept away by the raging waters. She searched for him frantically, but it was too late. By the time they found him and rushed him to the nearest hospital, he was already gone.

This mother's heartbreak is just one of many stories of how water affects people in different ways. Women and girls, in particular, are vulnerable to the water crisis. I also met a girl who was raped when trying to fetch water. She narrated the story as a hot day in the small coastal village, and the sun beat down mercilessly on the dirt roads. She was on her way to fetch water from the polluted ocean. The water in the ocean was dirty and contaminated, but it was the only source of water for the entire community. The girl had to make the dangerous journey to the ocean every day, walking through the scorching heat.

As she made her way to the ocean, the girl heard footsteps behind her. She turned around to see a man she didn't recognise, but he grabbed her and dragged her off the road before she could react. The girl screamed for help, but no one was around to hear her. The man raped her and left her there, alone and traumatised.

The girl managed to return to the village but was too afraid to tell anyone what had happened. She was ashamed and felt like it was her fault. She continued to make the dangerous journey to the ocean every day, but she was now more afraid than ever before.

The devastating impact of unclean water and lack of access to good health facilities cannot be overstated. Countless lives have been lost to water-borne diseases like cholera, typhoid fever, dysentery, and diarrhoea. Despite SDG Target 6.1's goal of achieving universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all by 2030, the global situation is still dire. As of 2020, only 74% of the world's population had access to a safely managed water source, which means that one in four people still lack safe drinking water access (See Figure 1). Looking at the breakdown of drinking water access globally and across regions and income groups, we can see that in countries with the lowest incomes, less than one-third of the population have safe water. Unfortunately, most of these people live in Sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting that there is still a long way to go before we can achieve SDG Target 6.1.

Figure 1: Share of the population with access to drinking water

Take the situation in Lekki, Lagos, Nigeria, for example. This affluent area may conjure an image of comfort and luxury with its impressive architecture and beautiful relaxation spots. However, beneath the surface lies a dangerous reality – lack of access to drinkable water. If water is life, then the inability to obtain clean water means that life does not exist in Lekki. Despite their wealth and privilege, Lekki residents are still exposed to water-related diseases resulting from sub-standard and unregulated sources of water supply. The implications on sanitation are dire, with increasing cases of dysentery and diarrhea-induced pathogenic bacteria infections sparking concerns about public health in the area.

The lack of access to clean drinking water is not just a problem in Sub-Saharan Africa. The devastating effects of the water crisis are felt in coastal communities worldwide. Sea-level rise is causing the destruction of vernacular architecture in coastal regions, and water scarcity is affecting everyone, regardless of where we live or our socioeconomic status.

It's a heartbreaking situation highlighting the urgency of addressing the water crisis. We must take action to ensure that everyone has access to clean water and sanitation, no matter where they live or how much money they have. The water crisis affects us all, and we must demand change and make a difference.

This year's theme for World Water Day is Accelerating Change. It's a call to action to address the water crisis. If you think it doesn't affect you, think again. Everyone is affected irrespective of their socio-economic status.

We can all be the change we want to see in our society. There's a story of an ancient hummingbird who did just that. When a forest was on fire, and all the animals were fleeing for their lives, the hummingbird flew to the nearest stream, picked up a drop of water in its beak, and flew back to the forest. It dropped the drop of water on the fire and flew back to the stream to get more. The other animals laughed and asked, "What do you think you're doing? You're not going to put out the fire with those drops of water." The hummingbird replied, "I'm doing what I can."

We can all do what we can to address the water crisis. We can support organisations working to provide access to clean water and sanitation facilities. We can advocate for policies that prioritise water conservation and management. We can reduce our water consumption and use sustainable water practices at home and work. We can educate ourselves and others about the water crisis and the importance of taking action.

But it's not enough to just do what we can as individuals. We need to demand action from our governments, businesses, and communities. We need to boldly state that access to clean water and sanitation is a fundamental human right to be protected.

We can also learn from the experiences and knowledge of indigenous communities who have lived sustainably with water for generations. We can work with them to implement sustainable water management practices that respect and honour their traditional knowledge.

On this World Water Day, let's be the hummingbirds of our society. Let's do what we can to accelerate change, address the water crisis, protect our communities, and create a world where everyone can access clean water and sanitation. Let's honour the stories of those who have suffered due to the lack of access to water and sanitation by taking meaningful action. Together, we can create a world where water is not a source of death and suffering but a source of life and flourishing.

---

Reference

Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2021) - "Clean Water and Sanitation". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/clean-water-sanitation' [Online Resource]

Adenike Akinsemolu is a Vanguard Fellow at the Institute of Advanced Studies, University of Birmingham.

The Green Institute Launches the #OfficiallyGreen Campaign to Beat Plastic Pollution

The Green Institute Launches the #OfficiallyGreen Campaign to Beat Plastic Pollution

Ondo City, Nigeria - The Green Institute, a leading non-profit organization dedicated to promoting sustainability and environmental protection, is proud to announce the launch of its latest initiative, the #OfficiallyGreen Campaign. This campaign aims to raise awareness about the dangers of plastic pollution and encourage individuals, communities, and organizations to take action to reduce their plastic waste.

"Plastic pollution is one of the biggest environmental challenges facing our planet today," says Dr. Adenike Akinsemolu, founder of the Green Institute and Vanguard Fellow at the University of Birmingham. "It not only impacts wildlife and ecosystems but also poses a threat to human health and the economy. With the #OfficiallyGreen Campaign, we aim to inspire and empower people to take action to reduce their plastic waste and join us in our mission to beat plastic pollution."

The #OfficiallyGreen Campaign invites individuals and organizations to share their commitment to reducing plastic waste by taking a picture with the #OfficiallyGreen placard and sharing it on their social media channels. Participants are encouraged to make their placards using recycled materials and to share what they are doing in their communities to reduce plastic waste.

"We believe that collective action is the key to solving the plastic pollution crisis," says Dr. Akinsemolu. "By working together and sharing our efforts, we can raise awareness, inspire change, and make a real difference."

The Green Institute is committed to supporting individuals, communities, and organizations in their efforts to reduce plastic waste and protect the environment. Join the #OfficiallyGreen Campaign and make a difference today.

Pioneering Conservationist Champions the Plight of Nigeria’s Hidden Fungal Treasure

YOUNG RESEARCH GROUP, OKEIGBO

Groundbreaking Research and Community Efforts Lead the Charge in Preserving the Igbo Olodumare Forest’s Elusive Termitomyces clypeatus

In the heart of Nigeria's Igbo Olodumare Forest, a remarkable species of mushroom, Termitomyces clypeatus, known locally for its culinary and ecological significance, is receiving unprecedented attention thanks to the efforts of Dr. Adenike Akinsemolu, a dedicated conservation biologist. Akinsemolu's pioneering work, now spotlighted through a significant grant from the Species Fund, aims to safeguard the future of this under-researched species.

Akinsemolu’s journey into the depths of the Igbo Olodumare Forest has unveiled the critical role of Termitomyces clypeatus in local ecosystems and communities. Through an innovative blend of habitat mapping, genetic diversity studies, and community engagement, [Your Name] is leading the charge to ensure the mushroom's survival against the backdrop of environmental challenges.

With a robust action plan, Akinsemolu’s project encompasses extensive field surveys, habitat restoration initiatives, and education programs designed to involve local communities in conservation efforts. "Understanding the genetic makeup and distribution of Termitomyces clypeatus is just the beginning," says Akinsemolu. "Our ultimate goal is to foster a harmonious coexistence between the forest's biodiversity and the people who rely on it."

The project has not only placed Akinsemolu at the forefront of fungal conservation but has also sparked a growing interest among international conservation bodies and the scientific community. As Akinsemolu continues to share findings and insights at global conferences and through publications, the world is taking notice of the importance of fungi in biodiversity conservation strategies.

As Akinsemolu’s work gains momentum, the future looks brighter for the Termitomyces clypeatus and the Igbo Olodumare Forest. Through dedication, research, and community collaboration, Dr. Akinsemolu is charting a new course for conservation, one mushroom at a time.

Mobilising Assam’s ‘hargila army’: how 10,000 women saved India’s rarest stork

Anne Pinto-Rodrigues

Guardian News

Greater adjutants, reviled as bad omens, were endangered until Indian conservationist Purnima Devi Barman transformed attitudes to the bird – and gave thousands of women a new identity

On a cool December afternoon a group of women dressed in brightly coloured mekhela chadors (Assam’s traditional handwoven clothing) sit in a circle on the grass at the Bhokha Beel wetlands, singing and clapping.

Some of the women are wearing papier-mache headdresses shaped like long-necked birds. As they sing, one of them gets to her feet and starts dancing.

They are part of the “hargila army”, a group of rural women in the Indian state of Assam who work to protect one of the world’s rarest storks: the greater adjutant (Leptoptilos dubius) – or hargila (meaning “bone swallower” in Assamese) as the scavenger bird is known locally. They are celebrating the recent UN Environment Programme’s Champions of the Earth award, conferred on the group’s biologist founder, Dr Purnima Devi Barman.

The endangered greater adjutant stork, or hargila

Barman won the award for her achievement in mobilising more than 10,000 women to help save the stork. “They are the protectors of the birds and of their nesting trees,” says Barman, referring to the band of homemakers turned conservationists.

The greater adjutant, a member of the stork family that can grow up to 1.5 metres (5ft) tall, was once abundant across south Asia. But its distinctive features – a featherless head, dangling gular (throat) pouch, striking pale eyes and long skinny legs – and its foul-smelling droppings and dietary preference for carrion – won it few fans.

The birds were not just reviled, they were seen as a bad omen and carriers of disease. Villagers attacked them with stones, cut down trees where they roosted communally and burned their nests.

I’ve always believed that, if given a chance, women can make a big difference in conservation-Purnima Devi Barman

Today the greater adjutant is endangered, with fewer than 1,200 adult birds in its last strongholds – the Indian states of Assam and Bihar, and Cambodia. Most of the global population is found in Assam, making Barman and the hargila army’s work critical to its survival.

Barman grew up in a village on the Brahmaputra, a river that flows for 2,500 miles through Tibet, north-east India and Bangladesh. As a child, she learned about Assam’s wildlife from her grandmother, who took her into the paddy fields where she worked and taught her about local birdlife. “She didn’t know how to write but she had a feeling for nature and taught me lots of songs and stories about the birds,” says Barman.

Barman and members of the 10,000-strong hargila army sing and dance to traditional songs

Her love of the natural world stayed with her. She gained a first degree and a master’s in zoology and was about to embark on a PhD on the greater adjutant when a contact phoned to tell her that a villager in Dadara had cut down a kadam (burflower) nesting tree in his yard.

When she arrived at the site she was appalled to find the ground littered with nests and dead or injured chicks. “It was my mothering instinct. I wanted to do something to protect these innocent creatures,” says Barman, whose twin girls were two at the time.

Barman began teaching the villagers about the birds’ importance as “nature’s cleaning crew”, and why nesting trees should not be cut down. In response, she was taunted and asked to clean the foul-smelling mess herself. The hostility she faced made her realise that to save the bird, she first needed to change the community’s attitude to it.

Barman with a lifesize cutout of a greater adjutant stork

The badge worn by members of the hargila army; a sign in Dadara village shows the partnership with the state forest department, the district administration and police

She delayed her PhD and set to work: she organised public meetings where she honoured the owners of trees, mostly men, instilling in them a sense of pride in their role as guardians. The tactic paid off. “Not a single nesting tree has been cut down since 2010,” she says.

But it was the women who Barman believed held the key to sustainable and community-led conservation. The problem was they were confined to their homes and household chores. So Barman found creative ways to bring them out where she could talk to them. She began organising cooking competitions of traditional sweets and snacks, where she befriended the women and talked about the birds.

She tapped into the women’s nurturing side by organising “baby showers” during the storks’ breeding season, inspired by a Hindu ritual for expectant human mothers, and “happy hatching” ceremonies to commemorate the arrival of the chicks. Slowly but surely, the women began to accept the birds as part of their world.

A primary school pupil holds a stork conservation poster. The hargila army members help encourage school children to protect the bird

By 2014, the conservation movement had gathered momentum and the hargila army was born. “Conservation is all about uniting people and building ownership,” says Barman. “I’ve always believed that, if given a chance, women can make a big difference in conservation.”

Today, the once-maligned bird is now a cultural symbol, appearing on everything from towels to road-safety campaigns.

In the villages of Dadara, Pacharia and Singimari (all in Kamrup district), greater adjutants’ nests have increased from 28 in 2010 to more than 250 according to Barman’s last count, making the area the world’s largest breeding colony. “We now have more than 1,000 hargila birds in Assam,” says Barman, referring to recent but unpublished data collected by her team.

Mamoni Malakar paints a henna tattoo of the hargila on Purnima Devi Barman’s palm

Joining the hargila army gave me a chance to show everyone that I could do something meaningful with my life-Daivaki Saikia

The conservation efforts have also transformed the lives of the women, who now go into other villages to raise awareness of the birds. “Joining the hargila army gave me a chance to show everyone that I could do something meaningful with my life,” says Daivaki Saikia, a young widow from Dadara’s marginalised fishing community, who has been a member for five years.

The UN award was for Barman’s “entrepreneurial vision” in using conservation to improve women’s economic status. Assam has a rich tradition of weaving, so Barman secured funding for 30 looms and provided training in weaving the hargila motif into fabrics, providing women with an independent income. Eighty women were also given sewing machines to make bags, cushion covers and other items from the handwoven fabrics.

In 2021, Barman established the Hargila Learning and Conservation Centre in a government school in Pacharia village, where hargila army members use songs, art and games to encourage children to protect the birds.

Hargila army member Sarawasti Das weaving a mekhela chador (a traditional Assamese sari) adorned with the hargila motif

Juggling her job as a biologist at Aaranyak, a wildlife non-profit organisation based in the city of Guwahati, Barman continues to help preserve the hargila. In February the hargila army begins its work in the districts of Morigaon and Nagaon, with further expansion planned for Assam.

She also hopes to set up a nursery for kadam trees that can be distributed to those who want to plant them in their gardens (45,000 saplings have already been handed out). “This will help improve the back-yard biodiversity,” says Barman.

Barman’s unwavering dedication has been recognised in India and internationally. Last year she was named World Female Ranger and in 2017, she received the prestigious Whitley award, known as the “Green Oscars”, as well as India’s highest civilian honour for women – the Nari Shakti Puraskar.

But Barman refuses to rest on her laurels. No opportunity to advocate for the bird is missed. “My intention is to involve everyone,” she says. “If people are concerned about the conservation of the hargila and its habitat, it will help other species as well.”

The future of flight in a net-zero-carbon world: 9 scenarios, lots of sustainable biofuel

Candelaria Bergero & Steve Davis FROM THE CONVERSATION

Some airlines are already experimenting with sustainable aviation fuel. Michael H/Stone Collection/Getty Images

Candelaria Bergero, University of California, Irvine and Steve Davis, University of California, Irvine

Several major airlines have pledged to reach net-zero carbon emissions by midcentury to fight climate change. It’s an ambitious goal that will require an enormous ramp-up in sustainable aviation fuels, but that alone won’t be enough, our latest research shows.

The idea of jetliners running solely on fuel made from used cooking oil from restaurants or corn stalks might seem futuristic, but it’s not that far away.

Airlines are already experimenting with sustainable aviation fuels. These include biofuels made from agriculture residues, trees, corn and used cooking oil. Other fuels are synthetic, made by combining captured carbon from the air and green hydrogen, made with renewable energy. Often, they can go straight into existing aircraft fuel tanks that normally hold fossil jet fuel.

United Airlines, which has been using a blend of used oil or waste fat and fossil fuels on some flights from Los Angeles and Amsterdam, announced in February 2023 that it had formed a partnership with biofuel companies to power 50,000 flights a year between its Chicago and Denver hubs using ethanol-based sustainable aviation fuels by 2028.

In a new study, we examined different options for aviation to reach net-zero emissions and assessed how air travel could continue without contributing to climate change.

The bottom line: Each pathway has important trade-offs and hurdles. Replacing fossil jet fuel with sustainable aviation fuels will be crucial, but the industry will still need to invest in direct-air carbon capture and storage to offset emissions that can’t be cut.

Scenarios for the future

Before the pandemic, in 2019, aviation accounted for about 3.1% of total global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion, and the number of passenger miles traveled each year was rising. If aviation emissions were a country, that would make it the sixth-largest emitter, closely following Japan.

In addition to releasing carbon emissions, burning jet fuel produces soot and water vapor, known as contrails, that contribute to warming, and these are not avoided by switching to sustainable aviation fuels.

Aviation is also one of the hardest-to-decarbonize sectors of the economy. Small electric and hydrogen-powered planes are being developed, but long-haul flights with lots of passengers are likely decades away.

We developed and analyzed nine scenarios spanning a range of projected passenger and freight demand, energy intensity and carbon intensity of aviation to explore how the industry might get to net-zero emissions by 2050.

Nine scenarios illustrate how much carbon offsets would be required to reach net-zero emissions, depending on choices made about demand and energy and carbon intensity. Each starts with 2021’s emissions (1.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent). With rising demand and no improvement in carbon intensity, a large amount of carbon capture will be necessary. Less fossil fuel use and slower demand growth reduce offset needs. Candelaria Bergero

We found that as much as 19.8 exajoules of sustainable aviation fuels could be needed for the entire sector to reach net-zero CO₂ emissions. With other efficiency improvements, that could be reduced to as little as 3 exajoules. To put that into context, 3 exajoules is almost equivalent to all biofuels produced in 2019 and far surpasses the 0.005 exajoules of bio-based jet fuel produced in 2019. An exajoule is a measure of energy.

Flying less and improving airplanes’ energy efficiency, such as using more efficient “glide” landings that allow airlines to approach the airport with engines at near idle, can help reduce the amount of fuel needed. But even in our rosiest scenarios – where demand grows at 1% per year, compared to the historical average of 4% per year, and energy efficiency improves by 4% per year rather than 1% – aviation would still need about 3 exajoules of sustainable aviation fuels.

Why offsets are still necessary

A rapid expansion in biofuel sustainable aviation fuels is easier said than done. It could require as much as 1.2 million square miles (300 million hectares) of dedicated land to grow crops to turn into fuel – roughly 19% of global cropland today.

Another challenge is cost. The global average price of fossil jet fuel is about about US$3 per gallon ($0.80 per liter), while the cost to produce bio-based jet fuels is often twice as much. The cheapest, HEFA, which uses fats, oils and greases, ranges in cost from $2.95 to $8.67 per gallon ($0.78 to $2.29 per liter), but it depends on the availability of waste oil.

Fischer-Tropsch biofuels, produced by a chemical reaction that converts carbon monoxide and hydrogen into liquid hydrocarbons, range from $3.79 to $8.71 per gallon ($1 to $2.30 per liter). And synthetic fuels are from $4.92 to $17.79 per gallon ($1.30 to $4.70 per liter).

Realistically, reaching net-zero emissions will likely also rely on carbon dioxide removal.

In a future with similar airline use as today, as much as 3.4 gigatons of carbon dioxide would have to be captured from the air and locked away – pumped underground, for example – for aviation to reach net-zero. That could cost trillions of dollars.

For these offsets to be effective, the carbon removal would also have to follow a robust eligibility criteria and be effectively permanent. This is not happening today in airline offsetting programs, where airlines are mostly buying cheap, nonpermanent offsets, such as those involving forest conservation and management projects.

Some caveats apply to our findings, which could increase the need for offsets even more.

Our assessment assumes sustainable aviation fuels to be net-zero carbon emissions. However, the feedstocks for these fuels currently have life-cycle emissions, including from fertilizer, farming and transportation. The American Society for Testing Materials also currently has a maximum blend limit: up to 50% sustainable fuels can be blended into conventional jet fuel for aviation in the U.S., though airlines have been testing 100% blends in Europe.

How to overcome the final hurdles

To meet the climate goals the world has set, emissions in all sectors must decrease – including aviation.

While reductions in demand would help reduce reliance on sustainable aviation fuels, it’s more likely that more and more people will fly in the future, as more people become wealthier. Efficiency improvements will help decrease the amount of energy needed to power aviation, but it won’t eliminate it.

Scaling up sustainable aviation fuel production could decrease its costs. Quotas, such as those introduced in the European Union’s “Fit for 55” plan, subsidies and tax credits, like those in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act signed in 2022, and a carbon tax or other price on carbon, can all help achieve this.

Additionally, given the role that capturing carbon from the atmosphere will play in achieving net-zero emissions, a more robust accounting system is needed internationally to ensure that the offsets are compensating for aviation’s non-CO₂ impacts. If these hurdles are overcome, the aviation sector could achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Candelaria Bergero, Ph.D. Student in Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine and Steve Davis, Professor of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

Climate change: Africa has a major new carbon market initiative - what you need to know

Jonathan Colmer from The Converstaion

Activists press for climate change financing during COP27. Mohamed Abdel Hamid/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Jonathan Colmer, University of Virginia

Climate finance for the African continent got a boost at the 2022 United Nations Climate Conference (COP27), with the launch of the African Carbon Markets Initiative. This aims to make climate finance available for African countries, expand access to clean energy, and drive sustainable economic development.

Led by a 13-member steering committee of African leaders, chief executives and industry specialists, the initiative promises to expand the continent’s participation in voluntary carbon markets.

Carbon markets are trading platforms which allow individuals, firms and governments to fund projects that reduce emissions (instead of reducing their own emissions).

Kenya, Malawi, Gabon, Nigeria and Togo have already indicated their intention to collaborate with the market.

Climate projects include reforestation and forest conservation, investments in renewable energy, carbon-storing agricultural practices and direct air capture. In return for funding projects like these, investors receive carbon credits – certificates used to “offset” the emissions that they continue to produce.

The African initiative’s goal is to produce 300 million new carbon credits annually by 2030, comparable to the number of credits issued globally in voluntary carbon offset markets in 2021.

However, there is considerable scepticism about whether carbon offset credits do mitigate climate change.

Two important issues

In assessing the effectiveness of carbon credits, one important concern is the concept of “additionality”. Emission reductions or removals are “additional” if the project or activity would not have happened without the added incentive provided by the carbon credits. For example, if a landowner is paid to not cut down trees, but had no plans to cut them down in the first place, the project does not deliver additional emissions savings. The landowner is paid for doing nothing and the buyer’s emissions are not offset.

Providing carbon credits to projects that would have been implemented anyway delivers zero climate mitigation, and can result global emissions that are higher than if the credits hadn’t been issued. This is a serious challenge for carbon offset markets because additionality is not measurable, despite industry claims. While project managers may claim that they are unable to proceed without funding, there is no way of knowing whether these claims are true.

A second issue is permanence. Carbon offsets have to be permanent because carbon emissions remain in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. It is almost impossible to guarantee that emissions will be offset for this length of time. But it depends on the type of offset project.

There are two types of carbon offset project:

• those that reduce the amount of carbon that is emitted

• those that remove carbon from the atmosphere.

In the case of carbon reduction projects, overall emissions remain positive. Examples of carbon reduction credits include investments in renewable energy. Even though the supplier of the carbon credit is not generating any emissions, the buyer continues to emit, and so the overall level of emissions is positive. Carbon neutrality – net-zero emissions – cannot be achieved using carbon reduction credits.

There should be more funding available for carbon reduction activities in Africa, but investors should not receive carbon credits to offset their own emissions when supporting these activities. Such investments would be philanthropic – for the good of the planet, not to balance the carbon accounting books.

Carbon removal projects do, however, have the potential to deliver a permanent net-zero emissions outcome. Direct air capture projects, which use chemical reactions to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store them deep underground, can meet this goal. The cost of direct air capture, however, remains very high.

Forest growth, a less costly type of carbon removal project, is less permanent. Landowners may commit not to cut down trees, but wildfires, disease, and other disruption events can release much of the stored carbon back into the atmosphere. There is still value to forest carbon credits, but they can’t guarantee permanence. Forest projects provide “carbon deferrals”. Additional forest growth projects remove carbon from the atmosphere for a fixed amount of time. There is value to this delay because it can reduce peak warming and gives society more time for the costs of decarbonising technologies to fall. While there is value to these carbon deferral projects they should not be used to generate carbon credits that are used to permanently offset the emissions produced through economic activity.

Goals of the market

The African Carbon Markets Initiative has bold ambitions. It will attract investments in Africa by firms, consumers and governments in countries that have historically contributed the most to climate change. Whether these investments result in any meaningful climate benefit, however, is unclear. Time will tell.

Existing carbon offset projects lack credibility. This doesn’t mean that carbon credits can’t be more useful in future. Being transparent about what projects actually deliver, rather than what we hope they deliver, is paramount. Given the limited resources available to mitigate climate change, we need more than good intentions.

Jonathan Colmer, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Virginia

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Earth has lost one-fifth of its wetlands since 1700 – but most could still be saved

Christian Dunn from Conversation

Earth has lost one-fifth of its wetlands since 1700 – but most could still be saved

A capybara in the Iberá Wetlands (Esteros del Iberá) of northeast Argentina. Kylie Nicholson/Shutterstock

Christian Dunn, Bangor University

Like so many of the planet’s natural habitats, wetlands have been systematically destroyed over the past 300 years. Bogs, fens, marshes and swamps have disappeared from maps and memory, having been drained, dug up and built on.

Being close to a reliable source of water and generally flat, wetlands were always prime targets for building towns and farms. Draining their waterlogged soils has produced some of the most fertile farmland available.

But wetlands also offer some of the best natural solutions to modern crises. They can clean water by removing and filtering pollutants, displace floodwater, shelter wildlife, improve our mental and physical wellbeing and capture climate-changing amounts of carbon.

Peatlands, a particular type of wetland, store at least twice the carbon of all the world’s forests.

How much of the Earth’s precious wetlands have been lost since 1700 was recently addressed by a major new study published in Nature. Previously, it was feared that as much as 50% of our wetlands might have been wiped out. However, the latest research suggests that the figure is actually closer to 21% - an area the size of India.

Some countries have seen much higher losses, with Ireland losing more than 90% of its wetlands. The main reason for these global losses has been the drainage of wetlands for growing crops.

A wetland is, like this peat bog, a terrestrial habitat where water is held on the land. Kuttelvaserova Stuchelova/Shutterstock

Wetlands are not wastelands

This is the most thorough investigation of its kind. The researchers used historical records and the latest maps to monitor land use on a global scale.

Despite this, the new paper highlights some of the scientific and cultural barriers to studying and managing wetlands. For instance, even identifying what is and isn’t a wetland is harder than for other habitats.

The defining characteristic of a wetland – being wet – is not always easily identified in each region and season. How much is the right amount of wetness? Some classification systems list coral reefs as wetlands, while others argue this is too wet.

And for centuries, wetlands were seen as unproductive wastelands ripe for converting to cropland. This makes records of where these ecosystems used to be sketchy at best.

The report shows clearly that the removal of wetlands is not spread evenly around the globe. Some regions have lost more than average. Around half of the wetlands in Europe have gone, with the UK losing 75% of its original area.

The US, central Asia, India, China, Japan and south-east Asia are also reported to have lost 50% of their original wetlands. It is these regional differences which promoted the idea that half of all the world’s wetlands had disappeared.

Farming has driven the destruction of wetlands globally. Tridsanu Thopet/Shutterstock

This disparity is somewhat hopeful, as it suggests there are still plenty of wetlands which haven’t been destroyed – particularly the vast northern peatlands of Siberia and Canada.

An ecological tonic

Losing a wetland a few acres in size may not sound much on a global or even national scale, but it’s very serious for the nearby town that now floods when it rains and is catastrophic for the specialised animals and plants, like curlews and swallowtail butterflies, living there.

Wetlands offer food and habitat for a diverse range of species. Aleksandra Tokarz/Shutterstock

Fortunately, countries and international organisations are beginning to understand how important wetlands are locally and globally, with some adopting “no-net-loss” policies that oblige developers to restore any habitats they destroy. The UK has promised to ban the sale of peat-based composts for amateur growers by 2024.

Wetland habitats are being conserved around the world, often at huge expense. Over US$10 billion (£8.2 billion) has been spent on a 35-year plan to restore the Florida Everglades, a unique network of subtropical wetlands, making it the largest and most expensive ecological restoration project in the world.

The creation of new wetlands is also underway in many places. The reintroduction of beavers to enclosures across Britain is expected to increase the nation’s wetland coverage, bringing with it all the advantages of these habitats.

Beaver dams and the wetlands they create reduce the effects of flooding by up to 60% and can boost the area’s wildlife. One study showed the number of local mammal species shot up by 86% thanks to these furry engineers.

Wetlands hold and slowly release water, helping to ease flooding and stall drought. Steved_np3/Shutterstock

Even the sustainable drainage system ponds developers create on the fringes of new housing estates could see pocket wetlands appearing in towns and cities across the UK. By mimicking natural drainage regimes instead of removing surface water with pipes and sewers, sustainable drainage systems can create areas of plants and water that have been shown to increase biodiversity, especially invertebrates.

Whether the total global loss of wetlands is 20% or 50% doesn’t really matter. What does matter is that people stop looking at wetlands as wastelands, there for us to drain and turn into “useful” land.

As the UN recently pointed out, an estimated 40% of Earth’s species live and breed in wetlands and a billion people depend on them for their livelihoods. Conserving and restoring these vital habitats is key to achieving a sustainable future.

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Christian Dunn, Senior Lecturer in Natural Sciences, Bangor University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Power magnitude earthquake and aftershock leaves hundreds dead in Turkey and Syria

More than 500 people were killed in two countries after one of the strongest earthquakes to hit Turkey in more than 100 years sent tremors across the region, collapsing buildings and sending residents running into the streets.

The 7.8-magnitude quake struck just after 4 a.m. Monday morning local time, 23 kilometers (14.2 miles) east of Nurdagi, Gaziantep province, at a depth of 24.1 kilometers (14.9 miles), the United States Geological Survey (USGS) said. Nurdagi is located along the Turkey-Syria border, and the quake was felt in several countries across the region, including Syria and Lebanon.

In Turkey, at least 284 people were killed and more than 2,300 injured, according to Vice President Fuat Oktay. In neighboring Syria, at least 237 people died and more than 630 were injured, Syrian state news agency SANA reported citing a Ministry of Health official. The deaths were reported in Aleppo, Latakia, Hama and Tartus.

Aaref Watad/AFP/Getty Images I Syrian rescuers (White Helmets) and civilians search for victims and survivors amid the rubble of a collapsed building, in the rebel-held northern countryside of Syria's Idlib province on the border with Turkey, early on February 6, 2023.

Dozens of people are trapped under rubble, according to the “White Helmets” group, officially known as Syria Civil Defense, a humanitarian organization formed to rescue people injured in conflict. Much of northwestern Syria, which borders Turkey, is controlled by anti-government forces amid a bloody civil war that began in 2011.

The quake struck before daybreak on Monday, when residents were likely asleep and unprepared for the impact. Video from Turkey shared on social media showed dozens of collapsed buildings, while frightened residents huddled on the darkened streets amid the chaos. Rescue workers can be seen conducting search-and-rescue operations by flashlight.

Monday’s quake is believed to be the strongest to hit Turkey since 1939, when an earthquake of the same magnitude killed 30,000 people, according to the USGS. Earthquakes of this magnitude are rare, with fewer than five occurring each year on average, anywhere in the world. Seven quakes with magnitude 7.0 or greater have struck Turkey in the past 25 years – but Monday’s is the most powerful.

Karl Lang, an assistant professor at Georgia Tech University’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, told CNN the area hit by the quake Monday is prone to seismic activity. “It’s a very large fault zone, but this is a larger earthquake than they’ve experienced any time in recent memory,” Lang said.

Eren Bozkurt/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images I Several buildings were destroyed following the powerful earthquake in southern Turkey on February 6, 2023.

‘It felt like it would never be over’

Journalist Eyad Kourdi, who lives in Gaziantep and was staying with his parents when the earthquake struck early Monday, said “it felt like it would never be over.”

When the shaking stopped, Kourdi and his parents walked out of their home still wearing their pajamas, he said.

With several inches of snow on the ground, they waited outside in the rain for about 30 minutes before he could go back inside to grab coats and boots.

Strong aftershocks have been felt in southern and central Turkey. About 11 minutes after the main quake hit, the strongest aftershock of 6.7 magnitude hit about 32 kilometers (20 miles) northwest of the main quake’s epicenter. Another intense aftershock with a magnitude of 5.6 then occurred 19 minutes after the main quake.

Omer Yildiz/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images I A destroyed apartment and damaged vehicle in Yurt neighborhood of Cukurova district after the earthquake in Adana, Turkey, on February 6, 2023.

Kourdi said there were up to eight “very strong” aftershocks in under a minute after the 7.8 magnitude quake struck, causing belongings in his home to fall to the ground. Many of his neighbors had left their homes following the quake, he said.

Photos showing the true scale of the disaster are emerging as day breaks in Turkey. Entire buildings have been flattened, with metal rods scattered across the streets. Cars have toppled over, while bulldozers work to clear the debris.

A winter storm in the region is exacerbating the disaster, according to CNN meteorologists.

“Hundreds of thousands of people are impacted by this. It is cold. It is rainy. Roads could be impacted, that means your food, your livelihood, the care for your children, the care for your family,” CNN meteorologist Karen Maginnis said.

“Anything as far as crops or anything growing across this region will be impacted as well. The ramifications of this are broad and will impact this region for weeks, and months.”

A destroyed building after a powerful earthquake jolts Turkey on February 6, 2023. I Omer Yasin Ergin/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Searching for survivors

Search and rescue teams have been dispatched to the south of the country, Turkey’s interior minister, Suleyman Soylu, said. AFAD, the disaster agency, said it had requested international help through the Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC), the European Union’s humanitarian program.

Nearly 1,000 search and rescue volunteers have been deployed from Turkey’s largest city, Istanbul, along with dogs, trucks and aid, according to its governor, Ali Yerlikaya.

“Sorry for our loss. I wish our injured a speedy recovery,” Yerlikaya wrote on Twitter.

The governor of Gaziantep, Davut Gul, said on Twitter that “the earthquake was felt strongly in our city,” and advised the public to wait outside their homes and stay calm.

“Please let’s wait outside without panic. Let’s not use our cars. Let’s not crowd the main roads. Let’s not keep the phones busy,” he said.

Gaziantep province has a number of small- and medium-sized cities, with a sizable refugee population, according to Brookings Institute fellow Asli Aydintasbas.

“Some of these areas are rather poor. Some are more richer, urban areas … but other parts that we’re talking about that seem to have been devastated, are relatively lower income areas,” she said.

Video from the city of Diyarbakir, to the northeast of Gaziantep, shows rescue workers frantically trying to pull survivors out of the rubble.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the quake was felt in many parts of the country.

“I convey my best wishes to all our citizens who were affected by the earthquake that occurred in Kahramanmaraş and was felt in many parts of our country. All our relevant units are on alert under the coordination of AFAD,” Erdogan wrote on Twitter.

Search and rescue operations are underway as many are fear trapped in the rubble. I Omer Yasin Ergin/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Messages of condolences and support started pouring in Monday morning as world leaders woke to the news of the deadly earthquake.

White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the United States was “profoundly concerned” about the destruction in Syria and Turkey.

“I have been in touch with Turkish officials to relay that we stand ready to provide any & all needed assistance. We will continue to closely monitor the situation in coordination with Turkiye,” Sullivan wrote on Twitter.

Study Shows Exposure to Air Pollution Alters Brain Function

Jodie R. Gawryluk, Daniela J. Palombo, Jason Curran, Ashleigh Parker, Chris Carlsten

A new study has suggested that a brief diesel exhaust exposure acutely impairs functional brain connectivity in humans. The study was the first to show in a controlled experiment using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) that exposure to diesel exhaust disrupts the ability of different areas of the human brain to interact and communicate with each other.

The peer-reviewed findings, published in the journal Environmental Health, show that just two hours of exposure to diesel exhaust causes a decrease in the brain's functional connectivity -- a measure of how The study provides the first evidence in humans, from a controlled experiment, of altered brain network connectivity induced by air pollution.

"For many decades, scientists thought the brain may be protected from the harmful effects of air pollution," said senior study author Dr. Chris Carlsten, professor and head of respiratory medicine and the Canada Research Chair in occupational and environmental lung disease at UBC. "This study, which is the first of its kind in the world, provides fresh evidence supporting a connection between air pollution and cognition."

For the study, the researchers briefly exposed 25 healthy adults to diesel exhaust and filtered air at different times in a laboratory setting. Brain activity was measured before and after each exposure using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI).

The researchers analyzed changes in the brain's default mode network (DMN), a set of inter-connected brain regions that play an important role in memory and internal thought. The fMRI revealed that participants had decreased functional connectivity in widespread regions of the DMN after exposure to diesel exhaust, compared to filtered air.

"We know that altered functional connectivity in the DMN has been associated with reduced cognitive performance and symptoms of depression, so it's concerning to see traffic pollution interrupting these same networks," said Dr. Jodie Gawryluk, a psychology professor at the University of Victoria and the study's first author. "While more research is needed to fully understand the functional impacts of these changes, it's possible that they may impair people's thinking or ability to work."

Taking steps to protect yourself

Notably, the changes in the brain were temporary and participants' connectivity returned to normal after the exposure. Dr. Carlsten speculated that the effects could be long lasting where exposure is continuous. He said that people should be mindful of the air they're breathing and take appropriate steps to minimize their exposure to potentially harmful air pollutants like car exhaust.

"People may want to think twice the next time they're stuck in traffic with the windows rolled down," said Dr. Carlsten. "It's important to ensure that your car's air filter is in good working order, and if you're walking or biking down a busy street, consider diverting to a less busy route."

While the current study only looked at the cognitive impacts of traffic-derived pollution, Dr. Carlsten said that other products of combustion are likely a concern.

"Air pollution is now recognized as the largest environmental threat to human health and we are increasingly seeing the impacts across all major organ systems," says Dr. Carlsten. "I expect we would see similar impacts on the brain from exposure to other air pollutants, like forest fire smoke. With the increasing incidence of neurocognitive disorders, it's an important consideration for public health officials and policymakers."

The study was conducted at UBC's Air Pollution Exposure Laboratory, located at Vancouver General Hospital, which is equipped with a state-of-the-art exposure booth that can mimic what it is like to breathe a variety of air pollutants. In this study, which was carefully designed and approved for safety, the researchers used freshly-generated exhaust that was diluted and aged to reflect real-world conditions.

Africa climate woes, COP27 wins, misses and the way forward

KENNETH BUNDI & JANE KANYINGI

COP27 marked the fifth UN Climate Change conference in Africa.

People walk at the green zone of the Sharm el-Sheikh International Convention Centre, during the COP27 climate conference in Egypt's Red Sea resort city of the same name, on November 9, 2022. PHOTO | AFP

This conference was dubbed the African COP, a reflection of the weight Africans placed on this forum to highlight and find solutions to the effects of climate change in the continent.

Last year alone, every African nation felt the impact of climate-related challenges from wildfires in Algeria to catastrophic flooding in South Africa and Nigeria to the severe drought in the Horn of Africa.

All these combined experiences helped define key priorities for the continent, including a check on commitments from COP26 in Glasgow.

Some of the key tasks included delivery on finance for climate adaptation and mitigation — specifically an increase to climate financing directed to African countries to enable the transition to low-emissions and climate-resilient economies.

Financing in the form of the Loss and Damage Fund for vulnerable countries will provide the aid required to deal with climate change-related events.

The discussions throughout the various thematic sessions saw governments and the private sector address the various aspects of the climate finance ecosystem including financial instruments, tools and policies that have the potential to enhance access and scale up to green financing.

Amid the tough talks and the conflicting interests, developed countries agreed to provide funds to their developing counterparts to deal with the loss and damages due to the effects of climate change.

This was a key win for Africa, which has contributed the least to the climate crisis yet its ecosystems, people and economies are the most vulnerable and least prepared to adapt to the changes.

The challenge, however, is how the fund will be implemented and administered.

The continent must be well represented in the translation committee to ensure African interests are well articulated in the lead-up to COP28 where the translation committee recommendations are expected to be tabled for discussion and adoption.

The discussions did not make much progress in getting governments to accelerate their actions to tackle climate challenges and reduce carbon emissions.

Specifically, on climate negotiations, the more ambitious Paris Agreement temperature goal of 1.5 degrees Celcius has been weakened by its placing in the ‘science and urgency’ section.

By contrast, in the Glasgow Climate Pact, it sat alongside the solutions to the climate crisis in the ‘mitigation’ section.

As such, current scientific predictions have global temperatures set to rise by 2.4 degree Celsius over the next decade, way above what was envisaged in the Paris Agreement.

It’s critical that even with the funding, African countries and corporates keep pushing for the acceleration of the decarbonisation efforts and rewiring of the financial systems to support the continent’s climate adaptation in key sectors such as agriculture, energy, water, health and forestry to pull its population from abject poverty and the risk of starvation.

To support its efforts, Africa needs to rethink how the continent will push the developed economies to respond and recognise its needs.